Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Copper prices are influenced by U.S. non - farm data increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, a weaker dollar, and a low inventory in China. The market is overall weak, and attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is cooling, and the market is currently oscillating strongly. If the news of supply - side production cuts is false, the market may turn weak [8] Crude Oil - Due to the seasonal peak travel season and low U.S. crude oil inventories, but with an unexpected large increase in U.S. crude oil stocks and OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10] Asphalt - With开工率 changes, inventory status, and cost factors, asphalt is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12] PP - Given factors such as downstream开工率, supply, cost, and policy expectations, PP is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13] Plastic - Considering开工率, demand, cost, and policy factors, plastic is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15] PVC - With supply, demand, inventory, and policy conditions, PVC is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] Coking Coal - Although the market sentiment is cooling, due to the expectation of supply tightening, the downward space for coking coal price correction is limited [18] Urea - The market is oscillating, and future trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer plants and export conditions. The 09 contract has limited upward and downward space [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 4, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Logs and coking coal rose by over 2%, while eggs fell by over 4%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 1.063 billion yuan, while CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 1.092 billion yuan [4] Copper - The U.S. non - farm data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. China's copper production increased in July, and the TC/RC fee stopped falling. The market is in a slack season with weak demand, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is low [7] Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply - side开工率 increased, and there is an expected reduction in supply. The cost support is weakening, and downstream demand is expected to increase [8] Crude Oil - It's the seasonal peak travel season, and U.S. crude oil inventories are low. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus for 2025 [10] Asphalt - The开工率 of asphalt production has rebounded, and the expected production in August has decreased. The downstream开工率 varies, and the inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level. The cost support is weakening [11][12] PP - The downstream开工率 of PP has slightly increased, and the enterprise开工率 has risen. The upstream propane import is restricted, and there is new production capacity. The downstream recovery is slow, and the inventory pressure is high [13] Plastic - The plastic开工率 is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工率 has increased slightly. There is new production capacity, and the downstream is in a slack season with weak demand and high inventory [14][15] PVC - The PVC开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 is low. Exports are affected by policies, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price showed a mixed trend. The supply from Mongolia is high, and the domestic coal production has not significantly decreased. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production [18] Urea - The urea price weekend decline attracted orders. The production is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. The inventory has started to accumulate [19]

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating around $36.60 per ounce, down 0.30% from the opening price of $36.67 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that conditions for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China are "in place," but not yet fully completed, with significant progress made in recent talks [3] - The potential failure to reach a trade agreement could lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting U.S. domestic prices and causing disruptions in global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The international silver market is showing a bearish pattern, with a head and shoulders formation on the daily chart and a free-fall pattern on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend [4] - Short-term resistance levels for silver are identified at $37 to $37.2, with key resistance at $37.7 and $38.3, while immediate support is at the $36 level [4] - The market sentiment is further pressured by concerns over a new round of tariffs, leading to a general decline in Asian stock markets, although safe-haven flows into silver have not been significant [3]

智通财经APP获悉，由于SF90 XX以及12Cilindri 豪华车型以及定制化超级跑车的需求抵消了额外的关 税支出，全球豪车领军者法拉利(RACE.US)在第二季度的利润出现上升。 该豪车制造商周四表示，在出货量保持稳定的情况下，与去年同期相比，总营收同比增长4%，至17.9 亿欧元(大约20亿美元)，略低于华尔街普遍预期的18.3亿欧元，营业利润增长6%，至7.09 亿欧元。法拉 利表示，最近的美欧贸易协议降低了此前特朗普所威胁的50%关税后，该公司对全年业绩指引更有信 心，因此删除了原先预留的50个基点利润率"下行缓冲垫" 。 由于整体营收略显逊色，法拉利股价在米兰一度下跌 4.8%。该股今年累计上涨1.5%。 法拉利在很大程度上避免了保时捷等竞争对手的业绩大幅下滑命运，并且保时捷在本周公布财报时表 示，因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普主导的全球贸易战而下调了业绩指引。 投资者们普遍押注，这家意大利豪车公司凭借其传奇品牌的吸引力，能够将任何额外关税成本转嫁给富 裕的客户们。法拉利表示，预计下半年的"工业成本"将有所降低。 据了解，美国和欧盟周日同意将进口自欧盟集团成员国的车辆关税税率降低至15%。这一税率远低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on July 31, 2025, has a scope exceeding market expectations, causing the market to reverse previous gains. Subsequently, copper may return to a fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and the upside is restricted by uncertain expectations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is under pressure today. Although downstream sentiment has improved, high inventory restricts the upside. The anti - involution measures have not ended, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Future trends depend on the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on production in September on August 3. Saudi Aramco has raised prices, and geopolitical factors have led to a recent strong and volatile oil price. Caution is advised [10]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventories are at a low level. With cost support strengthening and policies beneficial for the long - term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: Downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has new capacity and increasing maintenance. With cost rising and policies not yet implemented, PP is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: New capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. With cost rising and policies not yet effective, plastic is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: Supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. With policies not yet having a real impact, PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals are fair, with inventory transfer and downstream demand remaining strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled, and caution is needed in trading [18]. - Urea: Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate. The 9 - 1 spread has reached a historical low [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 31, most domestic futures contracts closed lower. SC crude oil rose over 1%, while glass dropped over 8%, and coking coal and polysilicon dropped over 7%. In terms of funds, Shanghai Gold 2510, Glass 2509, and Soda Ash 2509 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, Polysilicon 2509, and Rebar 2510 had outflows [4]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The Trump administration's new copper tariff policy excludes upstream raw materials, and the scope is lower than expected, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. Domestically, the TC/RC fee is negative but stable. Refineries can still maintain production, but the new tariff may affect export demand [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply - side reform has not ended, and the market is waiting for the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. Crude Oil - Entering the peak travel season, U.S. crude oil inventories are low. The EIA report shows gasoline de - stocking, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC+ will make production decisions in September, and Saudi Aramco has raised prices. Geopolitical factors have led to a strong and volatile oil price [10]. Asphalt - Last week, asphalt production decreased, downstream demand increased slightly, and inventories decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to rising oil prices. Policies are beneficial for the long - term, and asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. PP - Downstream PP demand is weak, with a decrease in downstream and enterprise operating rates. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance has increased. Cost has risen, and policies have not been effectively implemented, so PP is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - New plastic capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is large. Cost has risen, and policies have not had an impact, so plastic is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - PVC supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. Policies have not had a real impact, so PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal fundamentals are fair, with increasing Mongolian coal imports and a slight decrease in domestic production. Inventory has been transferred, and downstream demand is strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled [18]. Urea - Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, but long - term supply is tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term, with a focus on the 78,000 yuan/ton support level [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and cautious operation is recommended [8][9]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production policy on September 3rd [10]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [11][12]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate, with a recommendation of 09 - 01 reverse spread, due to factors such as trade, supply, and demand [13]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. - For PVC, it is expected to decline with fluctuations, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, affected by supply, demand, and inventory [16][17]. - For coking coal, it is expected to consolidate in the near term, with cautious trading [18]. - For urea, it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and the current market is a rebound [19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 30th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose over 8%, while cotton, cotton yarn, and pulp fell over 1%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2509, SSE 500 2509, and polysilicon 2509 had capital inflows, while coking coal 2509, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had outflows [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is short - term loose and long - term tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is slightly up. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [8][9]. Crude Oil - Entering the seasonal peak season, prices are affected by factors such as OPEC+ production, trade agreements, and sanctions, and are expected to fluctuate [10]. Asphalt - Supply has decreased, demand is affected by funds and weather, and prices are expected to fluctuate [11][12]. PP - Downstream and enterprise operating rates are low, and it is expected to fluctuate due to trade and supply - demand factors [13]. Plastic - Operating rates are at a medium level, and it is expected to fluctuate considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [16][17]. Coking Coal - The price is slightly up, and it is expected to consolidate in the near term [18]. Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [19][20].

Group 1 - The main contract for asphalt futures showed a strong fluctuation, reaching a high of 3677.00 yuan and closing at 3650.00 yuan, with an increase of 1.00% [1] - Newhu Futures indicates that the short-term asphalt market will mainly follow the fluctuations in crude oil prices [1] - Guantong Futures expects asphalt to operate in a fluctuating manner in the near term [1] Group 2 - Zhongcai Futures predicts that asphalt will show a fluctuating trend in the short to medium term due to increasing supply from domestic refineries [2] - The northern region is experiencing reduced demand for asphalt due to continuous rainfall affecting road construction, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [2] - The overall market trading focus remains weak, with a mismatch between supply and demand continuing, and price competition expected to persist [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, while the medium - to - long - term supply is tight. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. Caution is needed [9][10] - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the near term. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies in September [11] - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate recently [13] - For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] - For plastics, it is expected to oscillate recently, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] - For PVC, it is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] - For coking coal, due to high volatility, cautious operation is advisable [19] - For urea, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on July 29, most domestic futures contracts declined. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, while glass dropped over 7%. In stock index futures, most contracts rose, and in treasury bond futures, most contracts declined [4] Capital Flows - As of 15:14 on July 29, rebar 2510, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had capital inflows of 1.39 billion, 1.272 billion, and 1.225 billion respectively. Lithium carbonate 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and ferromanganese silicon 2509 had capital outflows of 1.658 billion, 1.36 billion, and 827 million respectively [5] Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is currently loose due to tariff influence and may tighten in the long run. The market is bearish in the short term and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price is declining. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [9][10] Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ will increase production. Prices are expected to oscillate [11] Asphalt - Supply and demand indicators show mixed trends. It is expected to oscillate recently [13] PP - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply and cost factors interact. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14] Plastics - Downstream开工率 is low. Supply increases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [18] Coking Coal - Supply is stable, and demand is strong. High volatility requires cautious operation [19] Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory removal slows. It is expected to remain weakly oscillating [21]

与此同时，现货黄金也从7月22日的3431高点后连续4个交易日下跌，28日收盘报3314.440美元/盎司，6天跌超110美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，今年初尤其是4月初以来， 关税战和全球贸易战成为影响金价的重要因素，贸易战激烈时金价上行，达成关税协议、贸易战缓和时金价明 显回落。 美日、美欧之间关税谈判落定，市场对全球经济风险判断转向，作为避险资产的黄金投资热度下降。 此外，地缘政治风险上升时金价抬升，缓和时金价下行，过去几年地缘政治风险一直是影响金价的主要因素。经济数据和货币政策也有影响。美国就业率 好转、美元指数上升，对黄金价格形成压制。 29日，国内金饰价格跟跌，多品牌金饰价格均跌破千元。周生生足金饰品标价994元/克，较7月23日1029元/克的价格下跌35元/克；老庙黄金足金饰品标价 995元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌28元/克；周大福足金饰品标价998元/克，较23日1023元/克的价格下跌25元/克。 金价短期下行，受到多重因素影响。 从7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，最低触及3300美元/盎司，28日收报3310.0美元/盎司。 专家提醒，未来黄金价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold bars in China has stabilized around 700 CNY per gram since mid-March, with experts suggesting a long-term upward trend despite recent fluctuations [1] Group 1: Current Price Trends - Domestic investment gold bar prices have been hovering around the 700 CNY per gram mark for over four months, having previously exceeded 800 CNY per gram [1] - Last week, gold prices retreated from a high of 3400 USD per ounce, indicating volatility influenced by trade tensions [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Trade wars and tariff disputes have significantly impacted gold prices, with prices rising during intense trade conflicts and falling when agreements are reached [1] - Experts predict that ongoing geopolitical, economic, and military tensions between nations will continue to support a long-term increase in gold prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies [4][9][10] - Asphalt: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading [4][60][62] - PVC: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][112][113] - L&PP: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][154][155] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel eased supply concerns. OPEC+ will increase production in August and September. Although in the peak season, demand will weaken over time, causing prices to face pressure in August [9] - Asphalt: Supply is expected to decrease in August, but downstream demand will be affected by funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. The potential increase in Venezuelan diluted asphalt raw materials may lead to a sideways movement [61] - PVC: Upstream calcium carbide prices are weak. Supply is still at a relatively high level, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. It is expected to decline with short - selling opportunities [112] - L&PP: August is the traditional maintenance season, but production remains high due to new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve. It is expected to move sideways [154] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Prices rose in July, affected by geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production decisions, and Saudi price adjustments [12] - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: WTI non - commercial net long positions declined in July, and Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts decreased [16] - **Production**: OPEC production increased in June, and OPEC+ will raise production in August and September. US production decreased in the week of July 18 [20] - **Drilling Rigs**: US oil drilling rigs decreased in July [24] - **US Imports and Exports**: US crude imports decreased, and exports increased in the week of July 18 [28] - **China's Processing and Imports**: China's crude processing and imports increased in June [32] - **US Economic Data**: US CPI rose in June, and the European Central Bank maintained interest rates [36] - **Crack Spreads**: US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased in July [40] - **US Demand**: US gasoline demand increased, and diesel demand decreased in the latest data [45] - **Inventory**: US crude, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week of July 18 [49][53] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Houthi rebels upgraded their maritime blockade, and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation is back on track [55] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The asphalt/ crude ratio decreased in July, and the basis declined [69][73] - **Production and Capacity**: Asphalt production decreased in June, and the expected production in August will decline slightly [61][81] - **Consumption and Shipment**: Apparent consumption increased in May, and the national shipment increased in the week of July 25 [85] - **Profit and开工率**: The开工率 decreased at the end of July, and the spot - end profit loss in Shandong expanded [89] - **Imports and Exports**: No detailed analysis of the trend was provided in the report [93][96] - **Downstream Situation**: Road transport investment increased in the first half of 2025, and the asphalt downstream开工率 increased in the week of July 25 [101][106] PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the report [114] - **Upstream Situation**: Calcium carbide prices fell in July, with slightly improved profitability, and semi - coke prices and profitability decreased [121] - **Production and开工率**: PVC production decreased slightly in June, and the开工率 decreased in the week of July 25 [125][129] - **Imports and Exports**: Imports increased in June, exports decreased but remained high, and anti - dumping tax delays may stimulate exports [137] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate is still in adjustment, with continued year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas in the first half of 2025 [141] - **下游开工率**: PVC下游开工率 increased slightly in the week of July 25 but remained at a low level [144] - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory increased in the week of July 24 [148] Polyolefins (L&PP) - **Market Review**: The basis of plastics and PP decreased, falling to a low level [166][170] - **Production and开工率**: PE and PP production were at high levels in June, and the开工率 increased recently [175][182][186] - **Imports and Exports**: PE and PP imports decreased in June, and exports were at high levels. Net imports are expected to decline [192][199] - **下游情况**: Plastic product production increased in the first half of 2025, and exports turned positive in June. The downstream开工率 of PE and PP decreased slightly in the week of July 25 [203][207] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased on July 25 but remained at a relatively high level [211] - **Profit**: Coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased in July, and coal - based PP remained profitable [216]