Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3,400 before declining towards $3,375, with market optimism ahead of U.S. data releases and a weakening dollar [1][11] Technical Analysis - A breakthrough above $3,400 is crucial for a sustained upward trend, with the RSI indicator remaining bullish [1] - The 14-day RSI is currently at 57.00, indicating a positive short-term outlook for gold as long as it stays above 50 [3] - The bullish crossover remains intact, with the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) closing above the 50-day SMA, confirming a bullish signal [4] - Resistance is noted at the $3,400 level, with a potential static resistance at $3,440 if this level is breached [5] - On the downside, sellers may test the 21-day moving average at $3,359, and a drop below this could challenge the 50-day moving average at $3,348 [6] - A solid support level is identified at the 100-day moving average of $3,328, with a sustained drop below this level negating any positive mid-term trends [7] Fundamental Analysis - Gold buyers are pausing ahead of significant U.S. economic data releases, including GDP revisions, unemployment claims, and pending home sales, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on potential rate cuts [8] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, particularly after dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams [8] - Williams emphasized the need to observe upcoming economic data before deciding on rate cuts, which contributed to a strong rebound in gold prices [8] - Ongoing tensions between President Trump and Fed Governor Lisa Cook may limit downward pressure on gold prices, as Trump's attacks on Fed independence and dovish expectations persist [10] - The escalating global trade war, including increased tariffs from Mexico and Canada on China, and potential U.S. tariffs on India, may sustain gold's safe-haven demand [10]

Group 1 - The global trade war is intensifying, with significant developments occurring this week, particularly the United States ending the de minimis rule for small shipments [1] - Observing megatrends can provide insights into societal advancements and potential investment opportunities, despite the challenges in identifying them [1] - The importance of fundamentals, quality of leadership, and product pipeline is emphasized for uncovering investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The focus has shifted towards marketing and business strategy for medium-sized companies and startups, highlighting the relevance of these aspects in the current market [1] - The analyst has experience in international development and evaluating startups and emerging technologies, indicating a broad understanding of various industries [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone industrial output fell by 1.3% in June, worse than the expected decline of 1.0%, primarily due to significant drops in Germany and weak consumer goods production [1] - The revision of May's output growth from 1.7% to 1.1% indicates a weaker underlying trend than previously anticipated [1] - The second quarter GDP growth of 0.1% aligns with initial estimates, while employment growth of 0.1% matches expectations but is lower than the previous quarter's 0.2% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year economic growth of 1.4% in the second quarter was driven by a surge in demand before the implementation of US tariffs, but this growth is expected to slow down until a potential recovery in 2026 [2] - The monthly industrial output decline was mainly attributed to Germany (-2.3%) and Ireland (-11.3%), with the latter's data being affected by tax maneuvers of multinational pharmaceutical companies [2] - All sectors, except for energy production, experienced contraction last month, with non-durable consumer goods (-4.7%) and capital goods (-2.2%) leading the decline [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the inflationary pressures on certain tariff-sensitive food products, particularly coffee, specialty teas, and spices, which are causing concern among small businesses in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Price Increases and Consumer Impact - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that while overall food prices remained stable month-over-month, they are still 2.9% higher compared to the same time last year [1] - Coffee prices have seen a significant year-over-year increase of 14.5%, with the average retail price for ground coffee reaching $8.41 per pound [1] - Small businesses, such as Bethany's Coffee in Lincoln, Nebraska, have raised coffee prices by 18% to 25% since January, reflecting the rapid changes in costs [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Approximately 74% of U.S. food imports, valued at around $163 billion, are subject to tariffs, impacting the cost structure for companies reliant on imported goods [1] - Companies like Anjali's Cup, which sources nearly all its coffee and spice ingredients from overseas, face challenges in adjusting to higher tariffs, particularly a 50% tariff on Indian tea [2][3] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to force small businesses to choose between maintaining product quality and staying operational, potentially leading to market exits [3] Group 3: Broader Market Effects - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to extend beyond individual businesses, affecting grocery stores and the overall product variety available to consumers [3] - Changes in supply sources due to tariffs may lead to a shift in the types of products available year-round, as noted by industry experts [3] - The global trade tensions are viewed as detrimental to the vitality of the U.S. market, particularly for unique and high-quality products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's imposition of punitive tariffs on African economies, highlighting the need for African nations to diversify their trade strategies and reduce reliance on the U.S. market [1][3] Group 1: Economic Impact - The punitive tariffs are expected to exacerbate the economic vulnerability of African countries, which are already facing challenges such as debt crises and climate disasters [1] - Kenya is projected to lose 600,000 jobs and experience significant fiscal revenue losses due to the tariff impacts [1] Group 2: Trade Strategy - The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is progressing, but intra-African trade only accounts for 18% of total African trade, which is insufficient to mitigate the effects of global trade disruptions [3] - To effectively counter the impact of U.S. tariffs, African nations need to implement trade diversification strategies, strengthen regional trade under the AfCFTA framework, and deepen cooperation with BRICS countries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Polypropylene futures showed a slight decline of 0.17%, closing at 7062.00 yuan, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Ningzheng Futures predicts that the PP01 contract will experience short-term fluctuations due to increased polypropylene production and overall ample supply, with commercial inventory rising above levels seen in the same period over the past two years [1] - Guantong Futures also anticipates recent fluctuations in the PP market, suggesting a 09-01 reverse spread strategy, citing limited new orders and weak downstream purchasing intentions [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in polypropylene production capacity, particularly with the upcoming launch of CNOOC's Ningbo Daxie PP plant in August, contributes to the supply side, while downstream recovery remains slow due to seasonal weather conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's upcoming release of a new plan for ten key industries, including petrochemicals, aims to stabilize growth, although no concrete policies have yet been implemented in the polypropylene sector [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Copper prices are influenced by U.S. non - farm data increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, a weaker dollar, and a low inventory in China. The market is overall weak, and attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is cooling, and the market is currently oscillating strongly. If the news of supply - side production cuts is false, the market may turn weak [8] Crude Oil - Due to the seasonal peak travel season and low U.S. crude oil inventories, but with an unexpected large increase in U.S. crude oil stocks and OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10] Asphalt - With开工率 changes, inventory status, and cost factors, asphalt is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12] PP - Given factors such as downstream开工率, supply, cost, and policy expectations, PP is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13] Plastic - Considering开工率, demand, cost, and policy factors, plastic is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15] PVC - With supply, demand, inventory, and policy conditions, PVC is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] Coking Coal - Although the market sentiment is cooling, due to the expectation of supply tightening, the downward space for coking coal price correction is limited [18] Urea - The market is oscillating, and future trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer plants and export conditions. The 09 contract has limited upward and downward space [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 4, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Logs and coking coal rose by over 2%, while eggs fell by over 4%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 1.063 billion yuan, while CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 1.092 billion yuan [4] Copper - The U.S. non - farm data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. China's copper production increased in July, and the TC/RC fee stopped falling. The market is in a slack season with weak demand, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is low [7] Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply - side开工率 increased, and there is an expected reduction in supply. The cost support is weakening, and downstream demand is expected to increase [8] Crude Oil - It's the seasonal peak travel season, and U.S. crude oil inventories are low. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus for 2025 [10] Asphalt - The开工率 of asphalt production has rebounded, and the expected production in August has decreased. The downstream开工率 varies, and the inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level. The cost support is weakening [11][12] PP - The downstream开工率 of PP has slightly increased, and the enterprise开工率 has risen. The upstream propane import is restricted, and there is new production capacity. The downstream recovery is slow, and the inventory pressure is high [13] Plastic - The plastic开工率 is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工率 has increased slightly. There is new production capacity, and the downstream is in a slack season with weak demand and high inventory [14][15] PVC - The PVC开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 is low. Exports are affected by policies, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price showed a mixed trend. The supply from Mongolia is high, and the domestic coal production has not significantly decreased. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production [18] Urea - The urea price weekend decline attracted orders. The production is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. The inventory has started to accumulate [19]

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently experiencing a downward trend, with prices fluctuating around $36.60 per ounce, down 0.30% from the opening price of $36.67 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that conditions for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China are "in place," but not yet fully completed, with significant progress made in recent talks [3] - The potential failure to reach a trade agreement could lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting U.S. domestic prices and causing disruptions in global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The international silver market is showing a bearish pattern, with a head and shoulders formation on the daily chart and a free-fall pattern on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend [4] - Short-term resistance levels for silver are identified at $37 to $37.2, with key resistance at $37.7 and $38.3, while immediate support is at the $36 level [4] - The market sentiment is further pressured by concerns over a new round of tariffs, leading to a general decline in Asian stock markets, although safe-haven flows into silver have not been significant [3]

Core Insights - Ferrari's profits increased in Q2 due to strong demand for luxury models, offsetting additional tariff costs [1] - Total revenue grew by 4% year-over-year to €1.79 billion (approximately $2 billion), slightly below Wall Street's expectation of €1.83 billion [1] - The company expressed increased confidence in its annual performance guidance after recent US-EU trade agreements reduced previously threatened tariffs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Operating profit rose by 6% to €709 million [1] - Ferrari's stock price fell by 4.8% in Milan due to slightly disappointing overall revenue, despite a year-to-date increase of 1.5% [1] - The company avoided the significant performance declines faced by competitors like Porsche, which lowered its performance guidance due to the trade war [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The US is Ferrari's largest luxury car market, accounting for about one-quarter of its deliveries [2] - Ferrari's vehicles are all manufactured in Italy, limiting its ability to offset higher costs through production shifts [2] - The company plans to raise prices on some US models by up to 10% to address tariff impacts [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Lamborghini reported record deliveries in the first half of the year, driven by strong demand for plug-in hybrid models, despite a 6% profit decline due to tariff pressures [3] - The luxury car market remains resilient, with wealthy customers showing strong demand for top-tier vehicles, regardless of broader luxury market slowdowns [3] - Ferrari's customers are primarily ultra-high-net-worth individuals, with a higher price acceptance compared to average luxury car buyers, allowing the company to act as a price maker [3] Group 4: Industry Challenges - Other European automakers like Volkswagen and Renault have faced significant profit declines due to tariff impacts, with Volkswagen's Q2 revenue down 3% to €80.8 billion and operating profit down 29% to €3.83 billion [3] - Volkswagen's costs increased by €1.3 billion (approximately $1.53 billion) due to US tariffs, leading to a lowered sales return forecast for 2025 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on July 31, 2025, has a scope exceeding market expectations, causing the market to reverse previous gains. Subsequently, copper may return to a fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and the upside is restricted by uncertain expectations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is under pressure today. Although downstream sentiment has improved, high inventory restricts the upside. The anti - involution measures have not ended, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Future trends depend on the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on production in September on August 3. Saudi Aramco has raised prices, and geopolitical factors have led to a recent strong and volatile oil price. Caution is advised [10]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventories are at a low level. With cost support strengthening and policies beneficial for the long - term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: Downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has new capacity and increasing maintenance. With cost rising and policies not yet implemented, PP is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: New capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. With cost rising and policies not yet effective, plastic is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: Supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. With policies not yet having a real impact, PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals are fair, with inventory transfer and downstream demand remaining strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled, and caution is needed in trading [18]. - Urea: Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate. The 9 - 1 spread has reached a historical low [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 31, most domestic futures contracts closed lower. SC crude oil rose over 1%, while glass dropped over 8%, and coking coal and polysilicon dropped over 7%. In terms of funds, Shanghai Gold 2510, Glass 2509, and Soda Ash 2509 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, Polysilicon 2509, and Rebar 2510 had outflows [4]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The Trump administration's new copper tariff policy excludes upstream raw materials, and the scope is lower than expected, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. Domestically, the TC/RC fee is negative but stable. Refineries can still maintain production, but the new tariff may affect export demand [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply - side reform has not ended, and the market is waiting for the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. Crude Oil - Entering the peak travel season, U.S. crude oil inventories are low. The EIA report shows gasoline de - stocking, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC+ will make production decisions in September, and Saudi Aramco has raised prices. Geopolitical factors have led to a strong and volatile oil price [10]. Asphalt - Last week, asphalt production decreased, downstream demand increased slightly, and inventories decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to rising oil prices. Policies are beneficial for the long - term, and asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. PP - Downstream PP demand is weak, with a decrease in downstream and enterprise operating rates. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance has increased. Cost has risen, and policies have not been effectively implemented, so PP is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - New plastic capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is large. Cost has risen, and policies have not had an impact, so plastic is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - PVC supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. Policies have not had a real impact, so PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal fundamentals are fair, with increasing Mongolian coal imports and a slight decrease in domestic production. Inventory has been transferred, and downstream demand is strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled [18]. Urea - Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate [19].