新华财经北京1月21日电面对持续贬值压力，韩国总统李在明于周三记者会上明确表示，韩元兑美元汇 率有望在未来一至两个月内企稳于1400韩元左右。此番表态迅速提振市场信心，当日韩元盘中一度上涨 0.7%，升至1468.00韩元。 李在明坦言，仅靠国内政策"很难从根本上扭转韩元贬值态势"，强调需结合外部环境综合施策。在其讲 话后，Kookmin Bank经济学家评价称，总统就外汇问题发表如此明确且强硬的言论"实属罕见"，释放 出官方稳定市场的坚定决心。 当前，全球避险情绪因美欧分歧加剧及地缘政治紧张而再度升温。Kookmin Bank经济学家指出，若格 陵兰岛相关事态引发的美元走弱趋势延续，韩元反弹空间将进一步扩大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 李在明指出，近期韩元走弱"并非韩国独有现象"，相较日元所承受的更大贬值压力，韩元表现"相对坚 挺"。他测算称，若韩元贬值幅度与日元一致，当前汇率或已逼近1600韩元。尽管韩国出口额创下7000 亿美元历史新高、贸易保持顺差，但汇率仍徘徊于去年低位，去年曾触及17年来的最低水平。 为缓解外汇市场压力，韩国政府已决定暂缓履行本年度对美200亿美元的投资承诺。该笔资金原属韩国 此前在 ...

黄金市场又炸开锅了。 2026年1月20日亚洲交易时段，国际金价直接冲上4700美元关口，盘中最高触及4710.11美元，白银也飙到94.42美元。现货黄金更是一路拉到4731美元，新年 才过半个月，涨幅已经超过8%。 这种走势，让不少投资者直呼"黄金的时代又来了"。 对年轻投资者来说，这轮上涨值得关注，但更值得保持清醒。任何资产都有周期，越是在热闹的时候，越要稳住心态。真正的力量来自长期思考，而不是追 涨的冲动。 #国际黄金价格突破每盎司4700美元# 这波上涨并非空穴来风。美国对欧盟释放关税威胁，全球避险情绪迅速升温，黄金自然成了第一选择。分析师认为，4700美元可能会成为未来货币体系的一 个重要分界点，全球央行持续买入，信用货币体系的摇摆，都是推动黄金走出长期牛市的底层力量。不过短期看也有隐忧，美联储内部的人事变动会让市场 担心发生技术性回调。 回头看历史，1980到2000年黄金整整横盘了20年，年均波动率不到5%。和近三年超过35%的波动相比，完全是两个世界。当年坚持持有黄金的老投资者回 忆起那段日子，甚至出现过"拿金条换泡面"的无奈。如今的环境已经彻底不同：数字货币的竞争推动黄金金融创新，地缘格局 ...

1月16日，美元指数延续震荡走强态势，截至当日亚市早盘报99.3821，较前一交易日纽约汇市收盘价上 涨0.23%，盘中最高触及99.4946，最低下探99.0384，日内波幅超45个基点，交投活跃度较高，多空博 弈情绪升温。目前美元指数已站稳99.3关键关口，连续两个交易日收涨，短期强势格局进一步巩固，不 过中长期仍受美国经济基本面、政策周期及全球资金流向等多重因素制约，上行节奏或存反复。 但美元上行空间仍存明显制约，中长期下行压力并未实质性缓解。从经济基本面看，美国能源行业受国 际油价持续低位震荡拖累，页岩油企业开采活动持续放缓，钻机数量较去年同期减少超15%，能源板块 对GDP的贡献度边际下滑，间接压制经济复苏动能。从资金流向看，新兴市场资产吸引力稳步上升，近 期巴西、印度等新兴市场央行维持利率稳定，部分经济体开启降息周期，与美联储政策差逐步收窄，推 动全球资金向高收益新兴市场资产分流，持续对美元构成边际压力。此外，机构普遍预测美联储上半年 仍将启动降息周期，累计降息50个基点的预期仍占主流，长期宽松政策基调未改，叠加美国政府债务规 模突破34万亿美元，财政可持续性引发市场担忧，均对美元长期估值形成压制 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is showing an upward trend, influenced by strong US economic data and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments [1][3][4] Group 1: USD Performance - The US dollar index (DXY) has slightly increased, hovering around 98.70, following a strong ISM services PMI report that rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, surpassing economists' expectations of 52.3 [3] - The robust performance of the services PMI, which is a significant component of the US economy, indicates stability supported by the high-tech sector [3] - Market expectations suggest at least two 25 basis point interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve within the year, influenced by the strong PMI data [3] Group 2: CHF Performance - The Swiss franc (CHF) has shown resilience against the US dollar, with expectations of a slight increase in the Swiss inflation rate from 0% in November to 0.1% in December, which may lead to a relatively stable policy direction from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [3][4] - The CHF's stability is attributed to cautious trading behavior as the market awaits key economic data releases, including the US non-farm payrolls and Swiss CPI [4] - If the Swiss CPI data meets expectations, it is anticipated that the SNB will maintain a moderate policy stance for an extended period, which could influence short-term trading sentiment for the CHF [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the USD/CHF exchange rate is expected to remain weak, with a cumulative decline of over 10% in 2025 and a potential further drop in 2026 [1] - Divergence in monetary policy is a key driver for the downward trend, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and a 73.3% probability of an additional 50 basis points cut in 2026, while the Swiss National Bank maintains a 0% interest rate [1] - The Swiss economy shows resilience with an expected growth rate slightly below 1.5% for the year, supported by a trade agreement that significantly reduces tariffs on U.S. exports to Switzerland [1] Group 2 - The technical outlook is bearish, with the exchange rate breaking below the 0.79 support level and the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish MACD structure [2] - Institutions have mixed short-term views, with Standard Chartered expecting a potential rebound to 0.8060, while UBS maintains a bearish outlook extending into the first half of 2026 [2] - Key short-term data to monitor includes the Federal Reserve minutes, U.S. non-farm payrolls, and Swiss CPI, while long-term focus should be on the USD/CHF interest rate differential and global risk sentiment [2]

近期，国际金银市场迎来"史诗级狂欢"。 | OC (00 0 0 | | --- | 在本轮金银牛市行情中，主要驱动因素有哪些？短期因素与长期逻辑如何共振？经历整年上涨行情后，后市空间如何？普通投资者如何合理配置贵金属资 产？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 博时黄金ETF基金经理 王祥 截至12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次突破4500美元/盎司关口，最高触及4531美元；现货白银价格更是强势冲高至75.5美元/盎司，年内涨幅分别超70% 和近150%，大幅跑赢全球多数资产类别。其中，2025年的伦敦金价累计涨幅已创下1990年以来的最佳年度表现。 汇添富黄金及贵金属基金经理 过蓓蓓 中信保诚中证800有色指数基金经理 黄稚 受访基金经理认为，本轮贵金属行情是"短期催化"与"长期逻辑"共振的结果。黄金价格持续攀升并刷新历史纪录，核心推手为美联储降息周期的持续推 进，以及全球避险情绪的升温；白银的行情则来自"贵金属属性"与"工业属性+战略储备"的叙事得到市场认可。 不过，这些基金经理普遍认为，本轮行情虽然有基本面支撑，但短期快速上涨后，市场波动可能加剧，需要警惕回调风险。中长期来看，黄金仍受到美元 信用弱化、央 ...

【导读】基金经理解读金银市场投资机会 中国基金报记者 方丽 孙晓辉 近期，国际金银市场迎来"史诗级狂欢"。 截至12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次突破4500美元/盎司关口，最高触及4531美元；现货白银价格更是强势冲高至75.5美元/盎司，年 内涨幅分别超70%和近150%，大幅跑赢全球多数资产类别。 其中， 2025年的 伦敦金价累计涨幅 已 创下1990年以来的最佳年度表现。 在本轮金银牛市行情中，主要驱动因素有哪些？短期因素与长期逻辑如何共振？经历整年上涨行情后，后市空间如何？普通投资者如何合 理配置贵金属资产？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 博时黄金ETF基金经理 王祥 多重利好因素形成合力 共同驱动金银大牛行情 中国基金报记者： 近期黄金价格持续上涨并创历史新高，您认为主要驱动因素是什么？ 汇添富黄金及贵金属基金经理 过蓓蓓 中信保诚中证800有色指数基金经理 黄稚 前海开源黄金ETF基金经理 梁溥森 受访基金经理认为， 本轮贵金属行情是"短期催化"与"长期逻辑"共振的结果。黄金价格持续攀升并刷新历史纪录，核心推手为美联储降息 周期的持续推进 ，以及 全球避险情绪的升温 ； 白银的行情则来自"贵金 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【导读】基金经理解读金银市场投资机会 中国基金报记者 方丽 孙晓辉 近期，国际金银市场迎来"史诗级狂欢"。 截至12月24日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次突破4500美元/盎司关口，最高触及4531美元；现货白银价格更 是强势冲高至75.5美元/盎司，年内涨幅分别超70%和近150%，大幅跑赢全球多数资产类别。其中， 2025年的伦敦金价累计涨幅已创下1990年以来的最佳年度表现。 在本轮金银牛市行情中，主要驱动因素有哪些？短期因素与长期逻辑如何共振？经历整年上涨行情后， 后市空间如何？普通投资者如何合理配置贵金属资产？ 为此，中国基金报记者采访了： 博时黄金ETF基金经理 王祥 汇添富黄金及贵金属基金经理 过蓓蓓 中信保诚中证800有色指数基金经理 黄稚 前海开源黄金ETF基金经理 梁溥森 受访基金经理认为，本轮贵金属行情是"短期催化"与"长期逻辑"共振的结果。黄金价格持续攀升并刷新 历史纪录，核心推手为美联储降息周期的持续推进，以及全球避险情绪的升温；白银的行情则来自"贵 金属属性"与"工业属性+战略储备"的叙事得到市场认可。 不过，这些基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high, is driven by seasonal factors and a decline in liquidity as the year-end approaches, raising questions about the sustainability of this upward trend amid profit-taking pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of December 22, the spot gold price is trading at $4,412.31 per ounce, with a 1.72% increase, having reached a high of $4,419.86 and a low of $4,336.91 [1][2]. - Gold prices have increased over 4.5% in December, with only about a week of trading days left in the year [2]. - The average return rate for gold in December over the past 50 years is 1.1%, with a 52% probability of an increase, but the average positive return in months with gains is 4.78% [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent inflation and employment data indicate a cooling economy, leading to heightened expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports gold prices as a non-yielding asset [3]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and U.S.-China relations, are driving risk sensitivity in the market, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Market activity is expected to decline as the holiday season approaches, with some investors opting to take profits at high levels, potentially constraining gold's upward movement in the short term [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold has just entered the overbought territory, which is typical in a healthy upward trend [5]. - Seasonal support remains strong, with a clear tendency for gold prices to rise around the Christmas trading period, allowing for potential further gains before profit-taking occurs [5]. - The price is currently above the 100-period exponential moving average, indicating a sustained bullish trend, while the Bollinger Bands are widening, suggesting increased volatility [5].

Core Insights - The spot gold price has reached a historic high of $4,407.7 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 1.5% and an annual increase of over 67% [1][3] - Other precious metals have also surged, with platinum rising to $2,056, an increase of over 4% and an annual increase of over 127%, while palladium has seen an annual increase of over 95% [2][3] - Silver prices have also reached new highs, with spot silver exceeding $69 per ounce, marking an annual increase of approximately 139.64% [3] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing heightened expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, alongside increasing geopolitical uncertainties as the holiday season approaches, which supports gold prices [3][4] - The global demand for gold is being driven by a surge in risk aversion, skepticism towards the U.S. dollar credit system, and continued central bank purchases of gold [4] Investment Trends - In November, global physical gold ETF inflows reached $5.2 billion, marking six consecutive months of inflows, with total assets under management rising to $530 billion, a 5.4% increase [4] - The total holdings in gold ETFs have increased by 1% to 3,932 tons, setting new records, and the total inflow for the year is expected to achieve the best annual performance in history [4] Future Outlook - The short-term bullish outlook for gold is expected to remain unchanged, with price targets potentially moving to the range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, and extreme scenarios could see prices surpassing $5,200 [4]