Core Viewpoint - The Asia-Pacific markets are experiencing a collective rise, with significant gains in the South Korean and Japanese stock markets, driven by strong performances in the semiconductor sector and upcoming political events [1][5]. Group 1: South Korean Market - The KOSPI index in South Korea reached a new historical high, with an intraday increase of over 1%, peaking at 3481.96 points [2]. - Samsung Electronics saw its stock price rise by over 4%, with a market capitalization exceeding 490 trillion KRW, following reports of successful testing of its 12-layer stacked HBM3E chips by NVIDIA [3]. - Exports in South Korea showed a year-on-year decline of 10.6% for the first 20 days of September, while semiconductor exports increased by 27%, continuing the 30% growth from August [3]. Group 2: Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by nearly 1.3%, with notable gains in semiconductor stocks such as LASERTEC and Renesas Electronics [5]. - The upcoming election for the new president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is expected to influence market sentiment, with candidates focusing on key issues like high prices and cooperation with opposition parties [6]. - The Bank of Japan plans to gradually reduce its ETF holdings by approximately 330 billion JPY (around 2.2 billion USD) annually, indicating increased confidence in the economic outlook despite challenges [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wencan Co., Ltd. (文灿股份), reported a fire incident at its subsidiary Tianjin Xiongbang, which is expected to impact its production and financial performance in 2025. The company has initiated emergency measures and is assessing the damage caused by the fire [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Wencan Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit, with total revenue of 2.80 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.88% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.11 million yuan, down 83.98% [2][3]. - The company's operating cash flow also saw a significant drop of 84.58%, amounting to 38.73 million yuan compared to 251.21 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. Operational Impact - The fire incident did not result in any casualties and did not affect the main production areas, but it did cause damage to some facilities and inventory. The company is currently evaluating the specific losses [1]. - The production schedule for some products requiring post-processing will be impacted due to the fire [1]. Market Context - The company faces challenges due to reduced orders from clients in Europe and North America, influenced by market fluctuations and the ongoing effects of the Ukraine pipeline shutdown, which has led to increased energy costs [3]. - As of September 4, the company's stock price decreased by 0.80% to 20.96 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 6.59 billion yuan, reflecting a cumulative decline of 10% this year [4].

Group 1 - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Yoshimasa, has canceled his trip to Washington, which was intended to finalize a tariff agreement with the Trump administration [2] - The agreement, announced on July 22, involves a 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, effective from August 1, which is lower than the previously proposed 25% reciprocal tariff [2] - Japanese officials have expressed concerns over additional tariffs being imposed on top of the agreed 15%, and Washington has acknowledged this error, agreeing to adhere to the 15% tariff agreement and refund any excess import duties paid [2] Group 2 - Japanese government spokesperson, Yoshihide Suga, emphasized the importance of swiftly implementing the agreement for economic security between the two nations [3] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, indicated that Washington is ready to finalize the agreement, with Japan committing to invest up to $550 billion in the U.S. over the coming years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Canada will eliminate the 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods that comply with the USMCA starting September 1, as a response to the U.S. reducing tariffs on Canadian products [3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The Canadian government has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth CAD 60 billion since the trade war began, including additional tariffs on U.S. automobiles [3][7]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney indicated that the focus will be on assisting industries facing high tariffs, such as steel, aluminum, automotive, and lumber [3][7]. - The U.S. has increased tariffs on certain Canadian goods to 35%, but products covered by the USMCA are exempt from this increase [3][7]. Group 2: Impact on Small Businesses - A survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) revealed that 38% of small businesses may not survive another year if current tariff rules persist, with 58% affected by retaliatory tariffs [7][8]. - Many small businesses are bearing the full cost of U.S. import tariffs, with 67% indicating they have paid these tariffs themselves [7][8]. - The cost of shifting to domestic manufacturing for some companies, like Starfield Optics, can be as high as CAD 12,000, while their profits were CAD 150,000 last year [7]. Group 3: Trade Statistics - As of January, approximately 34% of Canadian goods exported to the U.S. complied with the USMCA, which increased to nearly 57% by June [7]. - Over 85% of goods in Canada-U.S. trade currently enjoy tariff exemptions [7]. Group 4: Ongoing Tariffs and Future Concerns - Tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum will remain in effect, with Canada being significantly impacted as a major supplier of these materials to the U.S. [10][11]. - In 2024, Canada is projected to export CAD 12.1 billion worth of steel, with 91% going to the U.S., and import CAD 15.5 billion worth of steel, with nearly 45% from the U.S. [11]. - The Canadian legal expert warned that maintaining retaliatory tariffs could jeopardize Canada's exemptions under the USMCA, especially as other countries have reached agreements with the U.S. [11].

Federal Reserve Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, urging Chairman Powell to remove her from the board due to concerns over her financial history [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated she would not support a rate cut if a policy decision were made tomorrow, citing persistent high inflation [2][3] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but he is concerned about the labor market [3][4] Market Reactions - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75% [5] - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow down 152.81 points, as investors await Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference [6][7] U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a framework agreement on trade, which includes a commitment to apply either the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on EU goods [8][9] - The agreement aims to reduce tariffs on automobiles and parts, with a potential reduction to 15% contingent on EU legislative action [10] Polyester Sector Insights - The polyester sector has seen a rebound since August 15, driven by stable oil and coal prices, low inventory levels, and approaching demand season [11][12] - The upstream PX segment is performing well, while PTA and polyester segments are experiencing lower profits, indicating a "strong upstream, weak downstream" dynamic [13]

Group 1 - South Korea's exports showed a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in the first 20 days of August, surpassing the 5.8% growth in July [1] - The trade surplus for the same period was recorded at $833 million, with imports slightly increasing by 0.4% [1] - The recent trade agreement between the US and South Korea capped tariffs on Korean goods at 15%, which is lower than the previously threatened 25% [1] Group 2 - The automotive sector faces uncertainty as tariffs remain at 25% until a formal adjustment is made by the US [2] - Key export products such as semiconductors saw a growth of nearly 30%, while automotive exports increased by 22% [2] - Exports to the US decreased by 2.7%, while exports to China grew by 2.7%, and exports to Thailand and Singapore surged by 59% and 82% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has reduced the safe-haven demand for gold [3][5]. Market Performance - On August 19, international gold opened at $3333.21 per ounce, initially rising to a high of $3345.31 before falling to a low of $3314.89, ultimately closing at $3315.54, marking a daily decline of $17.67 or 0.53% [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a weak performance due to a strengthening dollar and reduced safe-haven demand, with gold prices under pressure ahead of Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech [3][5]. Future Outlook - Despite the current downward trend, the overall outlook for the next year remains bullish, with expectations of potential price increases after a period of consolidation [5]. - The article highlights that the recent tariff agreements and potential increases in semiconductor tariffs could support gold prices, alongside favorable economic data suggesting possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has been fluctuating within a range of $3200 to $3440, with key support levels identified at $3270 and $3200, which could present buying opportunities [8][10]. - The article notes that the gold price is currently below key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend, but suggests that a rebound may occur upon reaching the 100-day moving average support [10]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3311 and $3275, while resistance levels are at $3327 and $3340 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent stability of the US dollar is misleading, as underlying risks are accumulating, with significant declines earlier in the year and temporary support factors now appearing weak [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The US dollar experienced a nearly 11% decline from January to April, followed by a brief recovery due to strategic concessions on tariffs and stable employment data [1]. - Recent tariff measures introduced by President Trump, particularly on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are raising concerns about economic protectionism and potential price increases [1][2]. - The US employment market is showing signs of fatigue, with non-farm payroll reports failing to exceed 100,000 for three consecutive months, historically a recession indicator [2][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with recent resignations and potential political influences on monetary policy [2]. - Speculation about future Fed leadership includes candidates who may prioritize political objectives over traditional monetary policy, potentially undermining the credibility of the Fed [2][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The reduction in short positions against the dollar suggests a temporary stabilization, but ongoing fundamental deterioration and rising political risks indicate clear downward pressure on the dollar [3][4]. - The euro is largely reacting to US macroeconomic changes, with limited upward movement despite some narrowing of interest rate differentials [3]. Group 4: Summary of Risks - The foundations supporting the dollar's recent resilience—tariff adjustments, temporary stability from Powell, and reliable employment data—are now crumbling, leading to increased risks for the dollar [4][5]. - The market is now focused on which negative factor will trigger the dollar's downward trend first [5].

Group 1 - Malaysia plans to invest up to $150 billion over the next five years to purchase equipment from U.S. multinational companies in the semiconductor, aerospace, and data center sectors as part of a tariff reduction agreement with Washington [1] - The U.S. announced a 19% tariff on Malaysia starting August 8, down from the previously threatened 25% [1] - Malaysia's national oil company will purchase $3.4 billion worth of liquefied natural gas annually, and Malaysia commits to $70 billion in cross-border investments in the U.S. over the next five years to address trade imbalances [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the US dollar index and the rise in silver prices are influenced by weak non-farm payroll data, which has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Market Data - The US dollar index is trading around 98.91, while spot silver opened at $36.99/oz and is currently around $36.68/oz [1]. - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 5.65 tons to 15,056.67 tons [2]. - The spot silver price closed at $37.02/oz, up 0.90%, while spot gold rose by 2.23% to $3,362.52/oz [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs [3]. - The market is fully pricing in two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year due to the disappointing employment data [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.139 and reaching a high of $38.355 before dropping to a weekly low of $36.181, ultimately closing at $37.008 [4]. - The market sentiment indicates a potential target for silver prices at $37, $37.3, and $37.6, with stop-loss levels set at $36.6 and $36.3 [4].