自四月中旬以来，美元汇率表面上的平静，未能掩盖其背后日益聚集的风险。今年早些时候，美元曾经 历一段显著跌幅，从1月高点至4月低点累计下挫近11%。随后，得益于特朗普政府在关税问题上的策略 性退让、美联储主席鲍威尔职位暂时稳固，以及一系列表现尚可的非农就业数据，美元获得了一段喘息 之机，并暂时平息了经济衰退的担忧。 然而，这些短暂的支撑因素，如今看来更像是临时性的稳定剂，而非持久的强劲动力。市场对修订后关 税协议的初步乐观情绪正迅速消退。日本和欧盟的贸易代表团正忙于澄清协议细节，而瑞士则面临高达 39%的关税压力。 从市场仓位来看，美元空头头寸已大幅减少，这或许解释了为何美元尚未出现彻底崩盘。然而，随着基 本面持续恶化和政治风险不断攀升，美元的下行压力显而易见。 在此背景下，欧元在很大程度上扮演着被动角色。尽管PMI修正数据并未引起市场波澜，但欧元兑美元 汇率仍紧密跟随美国宏观经济的变动。虽然两年期利率息差略有收窄，但即便美联储的言论趋于鸽派， 欧元兑美元也未能重现今年早些时候的强劲涨势。 究其原因，在于尽管欧元多头将目标定在1.17，但美国经济增长和政治失调所带来的风险溢价尚未完全 反映在价格中。在此之前，欧 ...

Group 1 - Malaysia plans to invest up to $150 billion over the next five years to purchase equipment from U.S. multinational companies in the semiconductor, aerospace, and data center sectors as part of a tariff reduction agreement with Washington [1] - The U.S. announced a 19% tariff on Malaysia starting August 8, down from the previously threatened 25% [1] - Malaysia's national oil company will purchase $3.4 billion worth of liquefied natural gas annually, and Malaysia commits to $70 billion in cross-border investments in the U.S. over the next five years to address trade imbalances [1]

SLV白银ETF持仓15056.67吨，较前一交易日减少5.65吨； 8月1日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)—多付空。 【要闻速递】 1.美国7月非农录得增长7.3万人，远低于预期的11万人；前两个月大幅下修25.8万个岗位，交易员完全 定价年底前美联诸降息两次。 北京时间周一(8月4日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.91附近，现货白银今日开盘于36.99美元/盎司，目 前交投于36.68美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于8935元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于8962元/千克附近。今 日基本面关注美国6月工厂订单月率。 2.特朗普发表见解非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让我难堪，已指示团队立刻解雇劳工局局长。俄乌冲突 本不应发生，已下令将两艘核潜艇部署在相应区域以回应梅德韦杰夫的言论。如果鲍威尔还不降息，理 事会应该接管控制权。先扬言会毫不犹豫地解雇鲍威尔，后又称若解雇鲍威尔将扰乱市场，鲍威尔很可 能继续留任美联储主席。 3.关于关税加拿大贸易部长：预计总理卡尼和特朗普将在接下来的几天内进行会谈。达成降低部分关税 的协议是一种"选择"。 上周五(8月1日)美元指数下跌1.38%，收报98.68，现货白银收报37.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows that concerns about the US economic recession resurface, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases. In China, the economic pressure eases in the second half of the year, and the macro - environment tends to be stable [2][83]. - On the supply side, overseas zinc mine production is mostly stable, and domestic mine output is steadily released. In August, zinc processing fees continue to rise, refinery profits improve, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase by 12,000 tons month - on - month [2][83]. - The demand side is differentiated. High - temperature and heavy - rain weather affects infrastructure construction. The Yalong River project boosts consumption expectations but has limited actual impact. The trade - in policy has overdrawn some demand. Zinc consumption in the automotive and home - appliance sectors weakens marginally but remains resilient. The wind - power industry and galvanized product exports support demand, while the slowdown in the photovoltaic industry and the weak real - estate market drag down demand [2][83]. - Overall, the domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, but overseas economic concerns resurface. The market risk preference weakens. The supply of zinc continues to grow, while the demand is lackluster. The fundamental situation remains weak, and the high - level hedging demand in the industry suppresses zinc prices. However, the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants provides a basis for a short squeeze, which may support zinc prices or slow down the decline. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai zinc will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market行情回顾 - In early July, Shanghai zinc continued to oscillate at a low level. In late July, the price first rose and then fell. By the end of July, the price closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.67%. LME zinc's center of gravity moved up, and it closed at 2,762 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.77% [7]. 3.2 Macro - aspect 3.2.1 US Aspect - The US economy weakens, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in July hitting a nine - month low, and the non - farm employment data braking sharply. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the Fed's interest - rate decision shows internal differences. After the non - farm employment data in July, the expectation of a September interest - rate cut increases significantly. The US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and the global tariff level is expected to be 15 - 20%, with the tariff - driven factor weakening [10][11][12]. 3.2.2 Euro - zone Aspect - The Euro - zone economy shows certain resilience driven by domestic demand, with the comprehensive PMI in July rising. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the ECB suspends interest - rate cuts. However, the US - EU tariff agreement increases trade costs and will impact the EU's automotive and pharmaceutical industries [13][14]. 3.2.3 China Aspect - China's GDP in Q2 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than that in Q1. The economy in June showed a differentiated performance, with external demand and production rebounding, while consumption and investment weakening. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month indicated that the focus of fiscal policy in the second half of the year is on implementation, and the expectation of strong stimulus policies weakens [15][16][17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply Situation - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Shifts from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, from January to May, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 4.9589 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.58%. Overseas mines are generally stable in production, and it is estimated that the overseas zinc ore increment for the whole year will be 55 - 60 million tons. In China, new mines are being put into production, and the annual increment is expected to be 9 - 10 million tons [31][32][33]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Continue to Rise Month - on - Month, and Zinc Ore Imports Decline Significantly Month - on - Month**: In August, domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increased. Due to the stable recovery of zinc ore supply, smelters have a high bargaining power. The zinc ore import volume in June decreased significantly month - on - month. Although overseas mines are releasing incremental output, factors such as the loss of zinc ore imports and the weakening of the Shanghai - London ratio may limit future imports, but there is still a possibility of a rebound [39]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply Situation - **Overseas Smelters Have Both Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disturbance Risks Remain**: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc cumulative output decreased year - on - year, mainly due to overseas production cuts. Some overseas smelters have reduced production, while some have expanded production. It is expected that the global refined zinc supply increment will mainly come from China [45]. - **Refined Zinc Output from January to July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, and Output in August Remains Above 600,000 Tons**: In July, China's refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 621,500 tons in August. The import volume of refined zinc in June increased, but since May, the import window has been closed, and future imports will mainly be long - term contracts [50][51]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand Situation - **High Interest Rates and Tariffs Disturb Overseas Demand, Which is Under Pressure**: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc consumption increased slightly year - on - year. In overseas markets, high interest rates and tariffs have a negative impact on the real - estate and automotive industries, and overseas terminal consumption is difficult to improve significantly [61][62]. - **The Start - up of Initial Enterprises is Seasonally Weak, and Galvanized Exports Remain Resilient**: In July, the start - up rate of initial enterprises was weak, in line with the seasonal pattern. Galvanized product exports increased in June, but it is expected to decline marginally in July [64][65]. - **Terminal Consumption is Differentiated**: In the traditional infrastructure sector, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, but it is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. The real - estate market is still weak, with both investment and sales declining. The automotive and home - appliance industries have certain resilience, but the growth rate may slow down. The photovoltaic industry has slowed down, while the wind - power industry is expected to continue to grow [69][70][72][74][76][77]. 3.3.4 Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory Increases Slightly - In July, LME inventory decreased, and there were concerns about a short squeeze, which pushed up zinc prices. Social inventory in China increased slowly. It is expected that inventory will continue to increase seasonally in early August but will stop increasing in late August as downstream demand recovers [，81]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook - The macro - environment tends to be stable, the supply of zinc shows an increasing trend, and the demand is differentiated. The fundamental situation of zinc remains weak, but the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants may support zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc main contract will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [83][84].

Market Overview - The international market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with the US stock market declining sharply. The Dow Jones fell by 2.92%, the Nasdaq by 2.17%, and the S&P 500 by 2.36% [1] - European indices also saw declines, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.57%, Germany's DAX 30 down 3.27%, and France's CAC 40 down 3.68% [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming ISM services survey is highly anticipated as investors assess the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut, especially after July's employment data fell short of expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with Chairman Powell indicating that the overall impact of higher tariffs on economic activity and inflation remains to be seen [2][5] Trade and Tariffs - President Trump announced a series of tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from various countries, with new tariffs set to take effect on August 7 [4][11] - The US has reached trade agreements with major partners, including the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, while negotiations with other trade partners are ongoing [3] Commodity Prices - International oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.33% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude rising by 2.97% to $69.67 per barrel [4] - Gold prices also saw a slight increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.36% to $3347.70 per ounce, driven by expectations of a potential rate cut and increased demand for safe-haven assets [5] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is in full swing, with notable companies such as Palantir Technologies, AMD, McDonald's, Walt Disney, and Eli Lilly expected to report [3][6] Upcoming Events - The US Treasury is set to auction $58 billion in three-year notes, $42 billion in ten-year notes, and $25 billion in thirty-year notes, with market confidence still recovering from previous poor auction demand [2]

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - President Trump announced a series of "reciprocal tariffs" as the deadline for tariff negotiations approached, leading to significant declines in major stock indices, with the Dow Jones down 2.92% and the S&P 500 down 2.36% for the week [1] - The upcoming ISM services survey is highly anticipated as investors assess the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts following disappointing July employment data [3] - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with major partners including the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, with ongoing negotiations expected to lower tariffs before the new tariffs take effect on August 7 [4] Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - International oil prices stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising 3.33% to $67.33 per barrel, attributed to market reactions to Trump's tariff announcements and sanctions threats [6] - Gold prices increased by 0.36% to $3347.70 per ounce, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. employment data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to new tariff announcements [7] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - The earnings season is in full swing, with notable companies such as Palantir Technologies, AMD, McDonald's, Walt Disney, and Eli Lilly expected to report [5] - Upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. Treasury's auction of $58 billion in three-year notes and $42 billion in ten-year notes, which are critical for market confidence following weak demand in previous auctions [3]

Core Viewpoint - On August 1, the South Korean stock market experienced a significant decline, with the KOSPI index dropping 126.03 points, a decrease of 3.88%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 7 of this year [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The KOSPI index closed at 3119.41 points, reflecting a notable downturn in investor sentiment [2] - The South Korean won depreciated against the US dollar, falling by 14.4 won to close at 1401.4 won, the lowest level since mid-May [2] Group 2: Contributing Factors - Analysts attribute the downward pressure on the stock market to expectations regarding the economic impact of the recently agreed tariff agreement between South Korea and the US [2] - There is a strong sense of disappointment regarding the new tax reform proposal introduced by the South Korean government, which has further affected market confidence [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's new tariff measures have significantly impacted global stock markets, leading to widespread declines across various regions [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - European stock markets opened with collective declines, with most countries experiencing drops exceeding 1% [3]. - The U.S. stock market indices also faced significant downturns prior to market opening [8]. - The Asia-Pacific region saw a collective drop in market performance [10]. - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.24% [12]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts indicate that a 15% tariff rate is detrimental for the EU, with Goldman Sachs projecting a GDP loss of approximately 0.4 percentage points for the Eurozone by the end of 2026 [5]. - The new tariffs are expected to harm global trade and economic growth, potentially causing stock markets to retreat from recent highs [7]. - The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs may adversely affect corporate decision-making, further suppressing growth [7]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical sector continued to show strength, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [17]. - The photovoltaic sector experienced a collective rebound, with companies like Jiejia Weichuang and Shuangliang Energy reaching their daily limit [18]. - Conversely, the hydropower concept stocks faced adjustments, with Poly United hitting the daily limit down [18].

Core Point - Thailand has reached a tariff agreement with the United States, reducing the tariff on Thai exports to the U.S. from 36% to 19% effective August 1 [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The reduction in tariffs is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Thai products in the U.S. market, solidifying Thailand's export base and contributing to overall economic resilience [1] - The Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister stated that the lower tariff rate will help maintain Thailand's global competitiveness and create opportunities for economic growth and increased income [1] Group 2: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the positive impact of the tariff reduction, Thailand's economy still faces challenges, necessitating accelerated economic adjustments to build a more stable and resilient economy to address future global challenges [1] - The President of the Thai Chamber of Commerce emphasized the need for the government to implement more measures in technology, finance, marketing, and trade innovation to assist Thai businesses in expanding into new markets [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]