关税协议

Search documents
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250730
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]
建信期货棉花日报-20250730
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:15
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: July 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton decreased with reduced positions. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions and grades of cotton had various sales basis and price ranges [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market's quotes remained stable, and transaction prices gradually approached the quotes. The overall demand in the cotton fabric market was weak, with prices mostly stable or declining [7]. - Macroscopically, the US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the market focused on the China-US talks in Stockholm. Internationally, as of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, the squaring rate was 80%, and the boll-setting rate was 44%. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, and the good-to-excellent rate declined slightly. Domestically, the sown area increased year-on-year, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream industry's demand remained weak, and the short-term main contract adjusted with position reduction and contract switching, with the 9-1 spread continuing to converge [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 24, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 21,617 bales, down from 21,635 bales the previous trading day. As of July 22, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was -18.94% (a week-on-week increase of 3.97 percentage points) [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including those on the China cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, different contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [17][18][23]
标普500指数跌0.38%,道指跌267点跌幅0.6%,纳指跌84点跌幅0.4%;费城半导体指数几乎完全回吐日内稍早涨幅。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特宣称,大量协议的接近达成,只是在等待(美国总统特朗普)敲定关税税率而已。
news flash· 2025-07-29 19:51
Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.38% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 267 points, a decline of 0.6% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 84 points, down 0.4% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index nearly completely reversed earlier gains [1] Economic Commentary - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that a large number of agreements are close to being finalized, pending the determination of tariff rates by President Trump [1]
美股期货短线波动不大,报道称印度准备应对美国20%至25%的关税
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-29 13:21
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美股期货短线波动不大,纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.4%的涨幅。报道称印度准备暂时面对更高的美 国关税。印度准备应对美国20%至25%的关税。印度预计到9月或10月与美国达成协议。 ...
能源日报-20250729
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 13:00
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not explicitly stated, but the analysis implies a short - term upward support situation [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bearish trend according to the star - rating system [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, suggesting a bearish trend [1] - Asphalt: Not explicitly stated, with a neutral view on supply and weak demand but some price support [3] - LPG: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias [1] Core View - The macro - economic and geopolitical factors have an impact on the energy market, with different products showing various trends. The overall energy market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, production adjustments, and demand fluctuations. The prices of these energy products generally follow the trend of crude oil to some extent, but each has its own supply - demand characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventory has decreased by 1.9%, refined oil inventory has increased by 1.4%, and the overall petroleum inventory has decreased by 0.7% after increases in the first and second quarters. There are expectations for a more relaxed balance sheet after OPEC+ production returns. There are positive macro - economic expectations from trade agreements and negotiations. The short - term market has upward support [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Macro and geopolitical news boosts oil prices, but fuel - related futures' cracking spreads are expected to be under pressure. In July, the arrival volume in the Singapore market increased by 22.5% month - on - month to 6.55 million tons, and the demand for ship refueling weakened. The cracking spreads are likely to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Asphalt - The planned production in August decreased compared to July, but there are signs of potential production increases. Demand recovery is delayed in the South due to typhoons and is weak in the North. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The supply increase space is considered neutral, demand has a weak reality but a repair expectation, and the price is supported by low inventory and follows the crude oil trend with limited upward space [3] LPG - Traders are cautious about potential CP price cuts at the end of the month. Exports increase and put pressure on the overseas market. The import cost decline improves chemical profit margins, and the PDH operating rate has room to rise. The supply is relatively loose, and the market is under pressure, showing a weak and volatile trend [4]
关税谈判欧洲跪了,哪些资产会下跌?
大胡子说房· 2025-07-29 11:28
Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU is perceived as unfavorable for Europe, as it involves a 15% tariff on EU products while requiring significant investments and purchases from the U.S. [2][10][15] Group 1: Agreement Details - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, aligning with the rate set for Japan [2] - The EU is expected to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [2][14] - The agreement is seen as a trade-off where Europe accepts higher tariffs in exchange for investment commitments [3][4] Group 2: European Response - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged that while the 15% tariff is not ideal, it is the best outcome they could achieve [5] - There are significant dissenting voices within Europe, with leaders like the French Prime Minister criticizing the agreement as detrimental to European interests [20][21] - The agreement is compared to historical unequal treaties, suggesting that Europe is sacrificing its own benefits [22][23] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The agreement reinforces Europe's energy dependence on the U.S., especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions [33][34] - The U.S. may leverage this energy dependency to impose higher prices on European imports [34][37] - The U.S. is expected to pursue similar agreements with other nations, particularly Japan, using its strategic advantages [41][43]
国家育儿补贴方案公布,6月规上工企利润降幅收窄 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-28 16:36
Group 1: National Childcare Subsidy Policy - The national childcare subsidy plan will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each child until they reach 3 years old, starting from January 1, 2025, benefiting over 20 million families [1][2] - The subsidy can be claimed online or offline, with specific distribution times determined by local governments [1] - The policy aims to reduce the financial burden of raising children and is a significant step towards encouraging childbirth [1] Group 2: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of 2023, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China totaled 34,365 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3] - In June, profits amounted to 7,155.8 billion yuan, with a decline of 4.3%, but the drop was less severe than in May [3] - The manufacturing sector showed improvement, with profits turning from a decline of 4.1% in May to a growth of 1.4% in June [3] Group 3: US-EU Trade Agreement - The US and EU reached a preliminary agreement on a 15% tariff rate, with the EU committing to invest an additional 600 billion USD in the US [5][6] - The agreement includes a unified tariff rate for various goods, although there are inconsistencies in the details regarding pharmaceuticals and steel [5][6] - This trade agreement is seen as a way to reduce global trade tensions, but further negotiations are needed to finalize the details [6] Group 4: AI Development and Investment - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai attracted over 1,572 leaders from 73 countries, with an expected procurement amount of approximately 16.2 billion yuan [7] - The conference highlighted the competitive landscape of AI, with the US leading in model development and China excelling in application [8] - Shanghai's initiative to issue 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers aims to support AI startups and enhance the city's AI infrastructure [9][10] Group 5: Tesla and Samsung Partnership - Tesla signed a significant chip supply agreement worth 16.5 billion USD with Samsung, focusing on the production of AI chips [11] - This partnership is expected to boost Samsung's chip manufacturing capabilities and improve its market position [12] - The collaboration reflects Tesla's commitment to advancing its AI technology, although it carries some risks due to Samsung's current technological standing [12] Group 6: Cryptocurrency Lending - New digital asset institutions are re-entering the cryptocurrency lending market, offering unsecured loans with high interest rates in response to rising digital asset prices [13] - The lending model targets underserved populations, with a high initial default rate of around 40% [13][14] - The approach raises concerns about the sustainability of such lending practices, especially in volatile markets [14] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - On July 28, the stock market experienced a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,597.94 points, up 0.12% [15] - The market showed mixed performance across sectors, with technology and innovative drug stocks performing well, while cyclical stocks like steel and coal faced declines [15][16] - The overall market demonstrated resilience, with a noticeable recovery in investor sentiment [16]
铜铝周报:海内外宏观偏好,铜铝高位运行-20250728
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 11:22
Report Information - Report Title: "Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Preferences, Copper and Aluminum Prices Remain High - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.28" [1] - Author: Liu Peiyang [2] - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 58620083, Email liupy_qh@ccnew.com, Professional Certificate No. F0290318, Trading Consultation No. Z0011155 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Copper - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Although the supply in Shanghai has increased recently, the overall supply remains tight. The downstream consumption willingness is low due to high copper prices. The impact of tariffs on copper prices has been gradually digested, and prices are expected to remain bullish after stabilizing [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Copper 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 81,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 77,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. Under the pressure of increased supply and the off - season of consumption, the inventory is expected to accumulate. However, the improvement of domestic macro - expectations will support aluminum prices, which are expected to remain high and fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - **Main Logic**: Domestically, policy signals are being released, improving market sentiment; the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, also boosting market sentiment. As of July 24, the national alumina weekly operating rate increased by 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The current spot - futures arbitrage window is open, and the warehouse receipt inventory is expected to increase. With the bullish domestic macro - expectations and low warehouse receipts, the alumina futures price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the Alumina 2509 contract, the upper reference pressure level is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton. A bullish approach is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory 01. Market Review Weekly Market Review - The cumulative weekly price changes from July 21 to July 25 were calculated for various metals including Shanghai Copper, International Copper, LME Copper, etc. [16] Weekly News Review - On July 21, the IAI reported that global primary aluminum production in June was 6.045 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [17]. - From this year to next year, 13.6 million tons of alumina projects in Guangxi are waiting to be put into production, while there is no new alumina capacity in Shanxi and Henan, and some factories may face elimination [17]. - On July 24, the EU started monitoring the import and export of scrap metals such as steel, aluminum, and copper due to supply shortages and smelter shutdown risks [17]. - On July 24, Japanese copper smelters were in difficult mid - year negotiations on processing and refining fees (TC/RCs) [17] 02. Macroeconomic Analysis Domestic Market - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations [21]. Overseas Market - On July 22, the US reached a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate and a $550 billion Japanese investment in the US [22]. - On July 27, the US reached a 15% tariff agreement with the EU, with the EU increasing investment in the US by $600 billion, buying US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [22] 03. Copper Market Analysis Spot Market - The processing fee TC remained weak [26] Futures Market - The net long position in COMEX copper declined [29] Overseas Market - The US dollar index declined [33] Inventory - Exchange inventories of copper in SHFE, LME, and COMEX, as well as Shanghai bonded area inventories, were presented [35]. - As of July 24, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 11.42 million tons. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the inventory accumulated. The future operating rate is expected to continue to decline [41] 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Domestic Market - The spot premium of aluminum narrowed [44] Overseas Market - The US dollar index weakened [48] Inventory - Weekly inventories of SHFE aluminum, aluminum rod social inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, and LME aluminum total inventory were shown [50] Downstream Operating Rate - As of July 24, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors had different performances, and the weekly operating rate is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [52] Recycled Aluminum Alloy - As of July 24, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton. The cost increased, but the demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [56] Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum were analyzed, and the profit was presented in a graph [60] 05. Alumina Market Analysis Spot Market - The spot price of alumina remained stable [63] Futures Market - The inventory of alumina futures was at a low level [66] Supply and Demand - Supply: The supply of alumina decreased slightly due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern plant. As of July 24, the built - in capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating capacity was 93.2 million tons [71]. - Demand: The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly, leading to an increase in alumina demand [71] Cost and Profit - The cost of alumina increased slightly this week due to factors such as the price changes of bauxite, liquid caustic soda, and thermal coal. As of July 24, the industry cost was 2,997.62 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 250.36 yuan/ton [72]
瑞达期货集运指数(欧线)期货日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 09:33
本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 集运指数(欧线)期货日报 | | | 2025/7/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1502.800 | -28.1↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1737.8 | | +7.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 -235.00 | -42.30↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -38.20 | | -46.90↓ | | EC合约基差 813.76 -59.24↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸(手) EC主力持仓量 50694 717↑ | | | | | | 2316.56 SCFIS(欧线)(周) | -83.94↓ SCFIS(美西线) ...