Core Viewpoint - The company benefited from rapid growth in its Hong Kong and Thailand operations, with a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV for the first half of the year, alongside growth in annualized new premiums and NBVM [1][2][4] Group 1: NBV Performance - The company's NBV for the first half of the year reached $2.838 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with annualized new premiums up 8% and NBVM increasing by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2][3] - Growth in NBV was primarily driven by the Hong Kong and Thailand markets, while the mainland China business saw a decline due to adjustments in economic assumptions [2][3] - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 24% to $1.063 billion, with both local customers and mainland visitors contributing to double-digit growth [2][3] - Thailand's NBV rose by 35% to $522 million, driven by a one-time sales boost before new co-payment regulations took effect in March 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Mainland China Business - The mainland China business experienced a 4% decline in NBV to $743 million, primarily due to changes in economic assumptions; however, excluding this impact, NBV grew by 10% [3] - New regions established since 2019 showed strong growth, with a 36% increase in NBV for these areas in the first half of the year [3] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in NBV for new regions from 2025 to 2030, with plans to open 1-2 new regions each year [3] Group 3: Operating Profit - The company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in after-tax operating profit to $3.609 billion, with earnings per share growing by 12% [4] - Strong business quality was reflected in the increase of CSM amortization and positive operating variances, which contributed to a 19% rise in insurance service performance [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.5% to $2.534 billion, primarily due to a 51.5% increase in financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of 49.00 Hong Kong cents per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, and completed a $1.6 billion share buyback on July 14 [5][6] - The free surplus generated in the first half of the year was $2.430 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Since 2022, the company has returned $22.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reducing the number of shares outstanding by 13% [6] Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The company maintains a high level of shareholder returns while anticipating future growth, with projected NBV of $5.449 billion, $5.941 billion, and $6.493 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - The company has set a target valuation of 1.55x PEV for 2025E, corresponding to a reasonable target price of HKD 85.3, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, with notable increases in new business value (NBV) and annualized new premiums, despite a decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - NBV reached $2.84 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with Q2 showing an 18.9% increase [1] - Annualized new premiums totaled $4.94 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - After-tax operating profit was $3.6 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, with earnings per share up 12% [1] - Net profit decreased to $2.53 billion, down 24% year-on-year [1] - Embedded value stood at $70.9 billion, unchanged from the beginning of the year, with embedded value operating profit at $5.9 billion, up 9% [1] Regional Contributions - Hong Kong remained the largest contributor to the group's NBV, accounting for 35% of the total, with a 24% increase to $1.06 billion [2] - Mainland China saw a 10% increase in NBV, with Q2 showing a 15% rise; new branches contributed to a 36% increase in NBV [2] - Thailand's NBV increased by 35% to $520 million, while Singapore's rose by 16% to $260 million; Malaysia's NBV decreased by 3% due to changes in the health insurance market [2] Product Structure and Value Margin - Overall NBV margin improved by 3.8 percentage points to 57.7% [3] - Mainland China's NBV margin increased by 2 percentage points to 58.6%, driven by policy changes and product repricing [3] - Thailand's NBV margin significantly increased to 115.7% due to one-time sales in personal medical insurance [3] Distribution Channels - Agent channel NBV grew by 17%, accounting for 73.4% of total NBV, with a margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 72% [3] - Partner channel NBV increased by 8%, with bank assurance channel NBV up 10% [3] Investment Strategy - The company reduced fixed income allocation while maintaining stable equity asset proportions [4] - The annualized net investment return was 1.9%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company expects continued growth driven by new branches in Mainland China and strong performance in Hong Kong [4] - The embedded value forecast for 2025-2027 is $73 billion, $77.6 billion, and $82.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 5.8%, 6.3%, and 6.7% [4] - Current price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratios are 1.37x, 1.29x, and 1.21x for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that both New Business Value (NBV) and NBV Margin have increased, with a mid-year dividend per share rising by 10% year-on-year [1] - The company reported a mid-year NBV of $2.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a quarterly growth of 18.9% in Q2 [1] - The annualized new premium reached $4.94 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - The after-tax operating profit was $3.6 billion, up 6% year-on-year, aligning with the company's three-year target guidance [1] - The net profit was reported at $2.53 billion, a decrease of 24% year-on-year [1] - The embedded value stood at $70.9 billion, remaining stable since the beginning of the year, with an operating profit of $5.9 billion, up 9% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates continued strong growth in Hong Kong and the mainland China markets, supported by the establishment of new branches [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Insurance revenue is projected to grow from $17.514 billion in 2023 to $21.897 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.43% [1] - After-tax operating profit is expected to increase from $6.213 billion in 2023 to $8.307 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of about 8.37% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from $0.36 in 2023 to $0.93 by 2027 [1] - The embedded value (EV) per share is projected to grow from $6.42 in 2023 to $7.88 by 2027 [1] - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratio is expected to decrease from 1.49 in 2023 to 1.21 by 2027 [1] Business Segments - The report indicates that Hong Kong remains the largest contributor to the group's NBV, accounting for 35% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 24% [1] - The mainland China market showed a 10% year-on-year increase in NBV, with a quarterly growth of 15% in Q2 [1] - Thailand's NBV increased by 35% to $520 million, while Singapore's NBV rose by 16% to $260 million [1] - The overall NBV Margin improved by 3.8 percentage points to 57.7% [1] Investment Strategy - The company has reduced its allocation to fixed income while maintaining a stable proportion of equity assets [1] - The annualized net investment return rate was reported at 1.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting embedded values of $73 billion, $77.6 billion, and $82.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance sector is as follows: China Ping An - Strong Buy, China Pacific Insurance - Buy, China Life Insurance - Buy, New China Life Insurance - Buy, China People’s Insurance - Buy [4][3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the long-term valuation anchor for the insurance sector should focus on changes in liability management quality, with a specific analysis of break-even yields and rigid costs to assess the cost of liabilities in the industry and listed companies [9][32] - The current PEV (Price to Embedded Value) of domestic insurance companies is generally below 1x, primarily due to potential "spread loss" pressures, reflecting cautious pricing assumptions regarding investment returns [9][40] - The report predicts that the break-even yield for listed insurance companies will be significantly lower than the net investment yield, indicating that the current PEV valuation may be overly pessimistic [9][51] Summary by Sections Section 1: Introduction - The report anticipates a further reduction in the predetermined interest rate in Q3, which may be implemented within the quarter, driven by market rate adjustments [13][14] Section 2: "Spread Loss" Crisis Assessment - The report discusses the formation of "spread loss" risks, highlighting the lagging nature of the insurance cycle in relation to economic and interest rate cycles [33][34] - It notes that the average liability duration in the life insurance sector is approximately 12-13 years, while asset duration is only 6-7 years, leading to reallocation pressures during a declining interest rate environment [35][40] Section 3: Dynamic Measurement of Rigid Costs - The report provides a dynamic measurement of the rigid costs associated with existing policies, predicting a rapid decline in these costs over the next two years (2025-2026) due to adjustments in predetermined interest rates [9][27] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the quality of liability management is expected to improve gradually, with a focus on the shift towards dividend insurance products, which are anticipated to alleviate overall cost pressures [25][26] - It highlights that the insurance sector is increasingly prioritizing high-dividend strategies to compensate for declining interest income, thereby stabilizing net investment yields [25][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in 2024 with total revenue of 1325.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 262.29 billion yuan, up 201.1% year-on-year [1]. - New business value (NBV) reached 62.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 106.8% [2]. - The company has prudently adjusted the investment return assumptions for non-linked insurance funds to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in an embedded value of 2584 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 3.17% from the beginning of the year [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company reported original premium income of 1705.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Long-term insurance new single premiums were 388.11 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, while long-term insurance new single regular premiums increased by 15.6% to 272.20 billion yuan [2]. - The new business value rate improved significantly from 6.7% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2024, an increase of 7.9 percentage points [2]. - The personal life insurance business showed a 13-month continuation rate of 95.7%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a 25-month continuation rate of 86.2%, up 7.8 percentage points [2]. Agent and Channel Performance - The number of individual insurance agents decreased slightly to 136,000, down by 19,000 year-on-year, but the average monthly performance of agents improved by 41% year-on-year to 0.81 million yuan [3]. - The bancassurance channel generated premium income of 516.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with first-year premiums for long-term insurance reaching a historical high of 138.73 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [3]. Investment Performance - Total investment income surged by 251.6% year-on-year, with an overall investment return rate of 5.8%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a net investment return rate of 3.2%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The proportion of bond investments increased by 2.0 percentage points to 52.1%, while stock investments rose significantly by 70.2% to 1807.95 billion yuan, accounting for 18.8% of total investment assets, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 8.80 yuan, 11.47 yuan, and 11.72 yuan respectively, with a target price of 57.61 yuan based on a 0.65x P/EV for 2025 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The insurance industry is currently facing challenges on the asset side, but the company, as a pure life insurance provider, demonstrates strong sensitivity and elasticity, making it a recommended quality beta asset for allocation [2]. - The company's current stock price corresponds to a 2025 PEV of 0.70 times, which is at a historical low, leading to a continued recommendation for investment [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 106.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 108.9% [6]. - The value of new business grew by 24.3% year-on-year on a comparable basis [6]. Investment Returns - The company reported significant improvement in investment returns, with total and net investment yields of 5.5% and 3.47% respectively, showing notable improvement from the mid-year figures of 3.59% and 3.03% [11]. Embedded Value and Business Quality - The embedded value (EV) reached 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, which is relatively high within the industry [11]. - The company adjusted its economic assumptions for the value system cautiously, with the investment return rate lowered from 4.5% to 4.0% [11]. New Business Development - The new business value maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3% in 2024, despite a slight decline from 25.1% in the previous quarter [11]. - The first-year premium growth rate was 5.8%, with a notable 14.3% increase in new policies with a term of ten years or more [11]. Workforce and Marketing Strategy - The individual insurance workforce stood at 615,000 by the end of 2024, showing a slight decrease from previous quarters, but productivity per capita improved with a 15% year-on-year increase in new policy premiums [11]. - The company is implementing a "seed plan" to explore new marketing models, which has shown initial success in 24 cities [11].

Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance reported a significant increase in net profit and maintained a strong dividend capacity, indicating robust financial health and growth potential in the insurance sector [1][4]. Financial Performance - The group’s net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 88.8% year-on-year to 42.2 billion RMB, aligning with expectations [1]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 11% to 268.9 billion RMB [1]. - The dividend per share grew by 14.7% year-on-year to 0.18 RMB, slightly below expectations [1][4]. Development Trends - The comprehensive cost ratio (CoR) increased due to significant disaster impacts, with a forecast for recovery in underwriting profitability by 2025 [2]. - In 2024, the property and casualty insurance premium income rose by 6.1% to 485.2 billion RMB, while the CoR increased by 1.0 percentage point to 98.8% [2]. - The net loss from major disasters exceeded the average of the past five years, impacting non-auto insurance profitability, although auto insurance CoR improved by 0.1 percentage point to 96.8% [2]. Life and Health Insurance Performance - Adjusted assumptions for life and health insurance still showed substantial growth, with life insurance contract service margin (CSM) increasing by 22% and health insurance CSM by 19% [3]. - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance, after assumption adjustments, remained 37% higher year-on-year at 5 billion RMB, while health insurance NBV was 131% higher at 6.5 billion RMB [3]. - The internal value of life and health insurance increased by 18% and 34% respectively from the beginning of the year [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The profitability forecast for 2025/2026 remains unchanged, with the company maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [5]. - The target price for the H-shares was raised by 27% to 6.2 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price [5]. - The target price for the A-shares was increased by 10% to 7.6 RMB, indicating a 9% upside potential [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in life insurance quality and efficiency, with a high growth in New Business Value (NBV) under adjusted assumptions, achieving 13.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.7% [4][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to be 44.96 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64.9% [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain a steady increase in Embedded Value (EV) and NBV growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 7.2%, 9.0%, and 9.4% for EV [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is 309.775 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 220.410 billion yuan [1] - The company's insurance service revenue for 2024 is projected to be 279.473 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 48.523 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [7] - The company’s cash dividend for the year is expected to be 10.39 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.2% [4][5] Business Segment Insights - The individual insurance channel has undergone a transformation, leading to improved margins and a significant increase in the bank insurance channel, which has grown by 134.8% year-on-year [5] - The company’s new single premium income for the year is projected to be 78.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% [5] - The company’s core workforce has stabilized, with an increase in average income and a rise in monthly performance rates [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 times, respectively [4][7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 5.04 yuan, with subsequent increases to 5.63 yuan in 2026 and 6.30 yuan in 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved significant year-on-year profit growth, with a net profit of 26.23 billion yuan, representing a 201.1% increase [4][8]. - The company maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of 30.1%, with an annual dividend of 2.53 yuan per share, up 197.6% year-on-year [4][8]. - The new business value (NBV) reached 6.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.8% [4][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was 132.56 billion yuan, up 85.3% year-on-year, while insurance service revenue slightly decreased by 0.5% to 47.81 billion yuan [4][10]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 25.9%, an increase of 17.9 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net investment yield was 3.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the total investment yield increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.8% [4][8]. Business Development - The company continues to strengthen its individual insurance channel, with a focus on high-performing agents, achieving a monthly average productivity of 0.81 million yuan per agent, up 41% year-on-year [5]. - The individual insurance channel's first-year premium for long-term insurance reached 13.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [5]. - The company is actively transforming its silver insurance business, with a total new business decline of 4.6% to 42.59 billion yuan, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous quarters [6]. Valuation and Forecast - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 22 billion yuan and 27.5 billion yuan, respectively, and introduces a new forecast for 2027 at 30.6 billion yuan [9]. - The A/H share prices correspond to a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.59 for A-shares and 0.31 for H-shares in 2025 [9][10].

2025 年 3 月 27 日 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：15.50 港币 作者 分析师：王一峰 NBV 增长稳健，盈利突破千亿 ——中国人寿（601628.SH、2628.HK）2024 年年报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 当前价：38.03 元人民币 公司研究 投资驱动盈利同比大幅增长 174%——中 国人寿（601628.SH、2628.HK）2024 年三季报点评（2024-11-01） 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com | 市场数据（A 股） | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 282.65 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 10749.07 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 26.5/50.88 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 6.5% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | ...