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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250801
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:39
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: High - level gaming intensifies, waiting for a callback opportunity [2] - Soybean oil: Mainly fluctuating, focus on the China - US trade agreement [2] - Soybean meal: Concerns about trade, weak US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating [2] - Sugar: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress accelerates [2] - Cotton: Sentiment cools down, Zhengzhou cotton futures callback [2] - Eggs: Weak sentiment [2] - Live pigs: End - of - month volume - shrinking rally, focus on sustainability [2] - Peanuts: Focus on weather in production areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,900 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,868 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% decline. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,192 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,198 yuan/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased compared to the previous month. Indonesia will raise the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil in August. The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [4][5][6][8][12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton with a - 0.51% decline, and night - session closing price was 4,133 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% decline. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3,000 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% decline, and night - session closing price was 3,002 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline. CBOT soybeans fell due to good weather and weak demand. The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [13][15] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,288 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% decline in the daily session and 2,296 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the night session. The closing price of C2511 was 2,230 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decline in the daily session and 2,213 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline in the night session. Corn prices in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16][17][18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound with a - 0.11 decline year - on - year. Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated. The trend intensity of sugar is - 1 [20][23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 13,650 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline, and night - session closing price was 13,655 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE US cotton 12 fell. Cotton spot trading was good, but the cotton yarn market and fabric orders were weak. The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25][26][29] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,259 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.36% decline, and the closing price of egg 2510 was 3,298 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.96% decline. The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [30] Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's live - pig spot price was 14,330 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,640 yuan/ton. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [33][34][35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,948 yuan/ton with a - 0.60% decline. The peanut market in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [37][38][39]
现货购销转好,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The market for bean meal and corn is influenced by multiple factors including weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. For bean meal, the supply is expected to be ample, and for corn, the supply - demand balance is also under the influence of various elements such as import policies and crop conditions [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3010 yuan/ton yesterday, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2735 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+2.82%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2690 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 25, Brazil's soybean exports reached 10.447 million tons, with a daily average of 550,000 tons, a 12.4% year - on - year increase. South American soybean exports in July are expected to increase by about 2 million tons year - on - year, with China as the main destination [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The bean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro factors are obvious, with an upcoming Sino - US meeting in August and an expected improvement in trade relations. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose, with high soybean arrivals and increasing oil mill inventories [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for bean meal is cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2312 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.64%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: As of July 27, 2025, 74% of the US national surface soil moisture was sufficient to excessive. In the main corn - producing states in the Midwest, the proportion of sufficient to excessive soil moisture in Iowa was 85%, in Illinois was 92%, and in Indiana was 77%. As of July 26, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 66.1%, and the expected total production was 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase from the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The corn futures price showed a narrow - range volatile trend yesterday. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors such as imported corn auctions, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient corn and wheat inventories. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened [5] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is cautiously bearish [6]
现货价格小幅下调,豆粕偏弱震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean粕 and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The bean粕 futures price showed a weak oscillation. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. There are obvious macro - factor disturbances, and the trade relationship is expected to improve. Domestically, the supply of bean粕 remains loose due to high soybean arrivals and rising inventory. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2]. - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to the approaching new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean粕 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕 2509 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, with a change of - 31 yuan/ton (- 1.03%) compared to the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed粕 2509 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.56%) [1]. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean粕 spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed粕 spot price in Fujian was 2610 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Market News: Private exporters reported selling 142,500 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 season. Argentina's president announced a reduction in most agricultural product export tariffs, with the soybean export tariff dropping from 33% to 26%, and the bean粕 and soybean oil tariff from 31% to 24.5% [1] Market Analysis - The bean粕 futures price was weak. Favorable US weather, improving trade relations, high domestic soybean arrivals, and rising inventory contribute to a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to new - season US soybean planting, Argentine bean粕 imports, and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.35%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.68%) [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - Market News: As of July 19, the harvesting progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 55.5%. Brazil's 2024/25 corn production is expected to reach 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase. The EU's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 60.13 million tons, up 0.9% year - on - year; imports are expected to be 18.33 million tons, down 7.0% year - on - year; exports are expected to be 4.23 million tons, up 69.2% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The corn futures price had a narrow - range oscillation. On the supply side, traders' shipments stabilized after negative - factor digestion. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises declined, and feed enterprises had sufficient inventory. The impact of imported corn auctions weakened, but market fluctuations may occur due to new - crop listing and uncertain policy - grain release [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]
现货小幅上涨,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:06
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has decreased, high yields are expected to lead to a bumper harvest. In China, oil mills are accumulating inventory, the breeding industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply is relatively loose. The soybean meal futures price rose last week due to macro - sentiment, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] - For corn, in China, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, the demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is mainly based on on - demand replenishment, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3095 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.80%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 18, Brazil's soybean exports reached 743.7 million tons, with a daily average of 53.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [1] Market Analysis - The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and high yields are expected to offset the reduction in sown area. In China, the supply is loose, the demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the spot price is stable. The futures price rose due to macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and new - season US soybean growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2321 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.04%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2675 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.26%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: In the first three weeks of July, Brazil exported 90 million tons of corn, with a daily average of 6.4 million tons, a 58% decrease compared to the daily average in July last year. The US corn growth good - to - excellent rate was 74%, the highest since 2016 and unchanged from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - In China, after concentrated grain sales, the trade inventory has decreased. Feed and deep - processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the impact of imported corn auctions on prices has weakened [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]
光大期货农产品日报-20250716
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:17
Research Views Corn - Corn futures on the September contract first rose and then fell on Tuesday, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through support and declined rapidly, with futures significantly at a discount to spot prices. On Monday, this attracted buying, driving up the futures price. Over the weekend, corn prices in Northeast China declined, and in North China, prices continued to fall due to high arrivals at deep - processing plants and enterprises' price - cutting purchases. Traders sold actively to realize profits, and the market supply was relatively abundant. With continuous import corn auctions and poor trading results, the market's bullish sentiment weakened. Technically, the September contract should pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton, and the recommendation is to continue shorting after the rebound ends. The view is bearish [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to good growth of US soybeans. The crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week and higher than the market expectation of 67%. NOPA data indicated that the US soybean crush volume in June was 185.709 million bushels, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. US soybean oil inventory dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% month - on - month and 15.8% year - on - year decline. In the domestic market, oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but terminal demand was weak, and soybean meal inventory accumulated rapidly. Some factories either suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - supporting strategy. The market is closely watching the development of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The view is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to hold long spreads for the September - January and January - May contracts of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - BMD palm oil fell 2% on Tuesday due to profit - taking and weak export data. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.3% - 6.2% compared with the same period last month, indicating weakening export demand. The decline in crude oil prices also exerted pressure on palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June reached an 11 - month high. In the domestic market, the fats and oils market continued to oscillate, with palm oil and soybean oil slightly rising and rapeseed oil slightly falling. The decline in overseas fats and oils prices led to profit - taking by long positions. The spot demand for soybean oil was strong, and inventory was accumulating. Palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased, but the improvement in rapeseed crushing margins limited the price of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to conduct intraday trading for single - side positions and hold long spreads for the September - January contracts [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract shifted from August to September. The August 2025 contract continued to oscillate, closing down 0.38%, while the September 2025 contract rebounded slightly from a low level, closing up 0.36% at 3615 yuan/500 kg. Spot prices remained flat. Terminal demand was normal, and most traders bought and sold in line with the market. After the plum - rain season, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season, but considering supply pressure, the expected price peak will be lower than last year. With the contract roll - over, the September contract rebounded slightly from a low level, and its subsequent performance should be monitored. The view is oscillating [1][2]. Pigs - On Tuesday, the main pig contract for September 2025 first rebounded in the morning and then declined, closing down 0.25% at 14,250 yuan/ton. The average daily price of live pigs in China was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average price increased by 0.04 yuan/kg, while prices in Guangdong remained flat, and those in Shandong, Sichuan, and Liaoning decreased slightly. Farmers' selling enthusiasm was fair, but downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were operating at a loss. With supply slightly exceeding demand, pig prices continued to decline. In the short term, the fundamental situation remains unchanged, and the view is that pig prices will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on futures prices [2]. Market Information - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the conditions of US crops mostly improved in the past week. As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of corn remained at 74%, that of soybeans increased by 4 percentage points to 70%, and that of spring wheat increased by 4 percentage points to 54%. Analysts expect favorable weather conditions for crops to continue [3]. - Shipping survey agencies ITS and Amspec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% and 5.29% respectively compared with the same period last month [3]. - A US Bank survey of global fund managers in July showed that 47% of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, about one - third expect one cut, 10% think the rate will remain unchanged, 8% expect three cuts, and only 1% predict more than three cuts [3]. - The Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China emphasized at a meeting on July 15 the need to achieve the annual grain output target of about 1.4 trillion catties, strengthen high - standard farmland construction, and prevent disasters [4]. - The IMEA reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, from July 7 - 11 was 443.58 reais/ton, down from 458.28 reais/ton in the previous week. The state's soybean meal price was 1482.06 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 5879.53 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided in the given text [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][20][24][25].
【期货热点追踪】美玉米期货反弹,美豆、美小麦期货小幅回升,特朗普贸易政策加码,农产品期货市场面临哪些不确定性?美农报告即将公布,农作物产量预期如何影响期货市场?
news flash· 2025-07-09 03:09
Core Insights - U.S. corn futures have rebounded, while soybean and wheat futures have seen slight recoveries, indicating a mixed performance in the agricultural futures market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding agricultural futures is heightened by the escalation of Trump's trade policies, which may impact market dynamics [1] - An upcoming U.S. agricultural report is expected to provide insights into crop yield forecasts, which could significantly influence futures market trends [1] Group 1 - U.S. corn futures are experiencing a rebound [1] - Soybean and wheat futures have shown slight recoveries [1] - Trump's trade policies are adding uncertainty to the agricultural futures market [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. agricultural report will likely affect crop yield expectations [1] - Crop yield forecasts are crucial for understanding potential impacts on the futures market [1]
瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250702
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to trade in a narrow range and is expected to remain volatile in the short term. The aquaculture peak season boosts demand, but the ample supply of imported soybeans and the substitution advantage of soybean meal suppress its price [2]. - The rapeseed oil market closed higher with increased short - term volatility. Although the domestic supply is ample and inventory pressure is high, the decline in refinery operating rates eases production pressure, and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect imports [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and rapeseed all changed, with rapeseed oil at 9619 yuan/ton (up 142), rapeseed meal at 2578 yuan/ton (down 8), ICE rapeseed at 709.8 CAD/ton (up 11.1), and rapeseed at 5165 yuan/ton (up 215) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads and positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also had changes, such as the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil at 65 yuan/ton (up 16) and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil at 32659 lots (up 7168) [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related products had fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton (up 50), and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton (down 20) [2]. - The oil - meal ratio was 3.75 (down 0.01), and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also changed [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production was forecasted at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons [2]. - The import rapeseed crushing profit was 107 yuan/ton (down 95), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed refineries was 11.46% (down 2.8) [2]. Industrial Situation - The import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions changed [2]. - The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 3 tons (up 0.19), and that of rapeseed meal was 3.48 tons (up 0.61) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1), and the monthly social retail sales of catering were 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2) [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons (down 87) [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility also changed [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Tuesday. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the US soybean inventory and planting area data were released [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The US soybean market is relatively stable, and the domestic supply of soybeans is increasing, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing, the substitution of soybean meal weakens its demand [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The palm oil market has inventory concerns, and the US fiscal policy supports the development of biodiesel from soybean oil. In China, the supply of vegetable oil is ample, but the decline in refinery operating rates eases the output pressure, and Sino - Canadian relations may affect rapeseed imports [2].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 03:26
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic soybean inventory pressure is manageable, and soybean meal inventory remains low. Despite improved开机 rates, there is no inventory pressure on soybean meal due to active downstream pick - up. The basis has slightly improved this week. The subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening, and the Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the expectation of US soybean imports opens. The futures price may follow the US soybeans for a short - term correction, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place rolling long orders on dips [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, driving a rebound in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, which supports the price this week. There are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market price is expected to remain volatile [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - Currently, the supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on weekends, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is stable. The breeding sector replenishes inventory on a just - in - time basis. However, the shrinking price difference between wheat and corn and even parity have increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward trend of corn prices. In the short - term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. However, the expansion of the minimum purchase price policy range supports the price, and the corn market remains in a volatile and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the crude palm oil futures have slightly declined after reaching a high. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short - term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan, and there is a possibility of breaking below 8500 yuan and further falling to the 8300 - 8350 yuan range under the influence of the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a significant increase on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils used as biodiesel raw materials. In the short - term, the CBOT soybean oil main July contract is oscillating below 55 cents. In the domestic market, it is currently the lightest demand season, with schools on vacation and reduced demand from canteens and small restaurants around schools. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, the operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively firm, and only a small amount of cotton in Kashgar has slightly adjusted the basis, but the mainstream price remains unchanged, so there is still support for cotton prices. The long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline later [14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%) from the previous value; the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the Brazilian 8 - month shipment has a disk import profit of 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%) from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%) from the previous value; the basis of RM2509 is - 98 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.77%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the Canadian 11 - month shipment has a disk import profit of - 30 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 31.25%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%) from the previous value; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 yuan (- 1.57%) from the previous value [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is - 30 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 11.11%) from the previous value; the rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is 284 yuan, up 18 yuan (6.77%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.87, up 0.017 (0.60%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.66, up 0.010 (0.38%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 350 yuan, up 9 yuan (2.57%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 is 388 yuan, up 5 yuan (1.31%) from the previous value [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The current prices in Henan and Shandong are 14400 yuan and 14500 yuan respectively, with changes of 0 yuan and 50 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous value; the price in Liaoning is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Guangdong is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Hunan is 13910 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the price in Hebei is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 145340 heads, down 1483 heads (- 1.01%) from the previous value; the weekly white - strip price is 20.32 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 28.00 yuan, up 0.9 yuan (3.17%) from the previous value; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.28 kg, down 0.5 kg (- 0.42%) from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is 19 yuan, up 22.3 yuan (768.97%) from the previous value; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 187 yuan, up 23.9 yuan (11.32%) from the previous value; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40380000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) from the previous value [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%) from the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread of corn is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%) from the previous value; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%) from the previous value; the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%) from the previous value; the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value; the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%) from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%) from the previous value; the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%) from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price in Weifang is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of corn starch is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%) from the previous value; the starch - corn disk spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%) from the previous value; the Shandong starch profit is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%) from the previous value; the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value; the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%) from the previous value; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents, up 0.18 cents (1.10%) from the previous value; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt number is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%) from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%) from the previous value; the basis in Kunming is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1637 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 3.28%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 452 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 16.80%) from the previous value [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales is 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%) from the previous value; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 65.73 million tons, down 0.88 million tons (- 1.32%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 7.49 percentage points (12.97%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 63.96%, up 6.03 percentage points (10.41%) from the previous value; the national industrial inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons (- 8.20%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 232.97 million tons, down 27.07 million tons (- 10.41%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 104.70 million tons, down 3.46 million tons (- 3.20%) from the previous value; the sugar import volume is 13 million tons, up 8 million tons (160.00%) from the previous value [10]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the futures price of Y
豆一、花生等农产品:各品种行情分析与点位建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 06:42
Core Viewpoint - The agricultural futures market is experiencing a divergence in performance across different commodities, with varying supply and demand dynamics influencing prices [1] Group 1: Soybeans - Northeast soybean prices remain stable with light trading, as the market is cautious about the auction atmosphere for old grain [1] - Southern production area prices are steady, with high-quality soybeans maintaining strong prices despite weak demand in sales areas [1] - The soybean market is expected to face pressure at 4280 - 4300 CNY/ton and support at 4130 - 4150 CNY/ton, with tight supply but equally weak demand [1] Group 2: Peanuts - The peanut production area has low leftover stocks, influenced by delayed imports and poor profit margins, leading to fewer imported peanuts arriving [1] - New planting area for peanuts has slightly increased year-on-year, but demand remains weak as oil mills enter a purchasing lull [1] - Short positions may be considered with support at 8110 - 8182 CNY/ton and resistance at 8520 - 8528 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Oils - Soybean oil prices have risen due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies, although domestic fundamentals remain largely unchanged [1] - The short-term outlook for soybean oil is weak, with resistance at 8000 - 8010 CNY/ton and support at 7770 - 7780 CNY/ton [1] - Canola oil is benefiting from rising crude oil prices and improved demand, with expectations of sufficient supply in the upcoming months [1] Group 4: Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are influenced by rising crude oil prices and U.S. EPA proposals, which improve biodiesel blending profits and demand [1] - From June 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4%, while exports increased by 17.7% to 26.3% [1] - The market is advised to hold long positions with support at 8100 - 8140 CNY/ton and resistance at 8704 - 8798 CNY/ton [1]
豆一、花生等农产品:价格走势及多空点位分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 06:42
Core Insights - The agricultural futures market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with specific focus on soybean, peanut, and oil prices influenced by both domestic and international factors [1] Soybean Market - Northeast soybean prices remain stable with light trading, while southern regions see steady prices for high-quality beans. Demand in sales areas is weak due to high temperatures affecting the preservation of soybean products, leading to cautious purchasing [1] - The domestic soybean supply is tight with weak demand, suggesting that there is insufficient driving force to pursue higher prices. The main contract for September is advised to be observed within the pressure range of 4280 - 4300 CNY/ton and support range of 4130 - 4150 CNY/ton [1] Peanut Market - Peanut stocks in production areas are low, with delays in imports and low profit margins affecting the arrival of imported peanuts. The planting area for the new season has slightly increased, reaching near historical highs [1] - Demand from oil mills is weak during the off-season, but rising crude oil prices and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies provide some support for peanut prices. A cautious long position is suggested with support at 8110 - 8182 CNY and resistance at 8520 - 8528 CNY [1] Oil Market - Soybean oil prices have risen due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies, although the domestic soybean oil fundamentals remain unchanged with weak demand [1] - The main contract for September should be monitored with resistance at 8000 - 8010 CNY and support at 7770 - 7780 CNY [1] Canola Oil Market - Canola oil prices are supported by rising crude oil prices, improving biodiesel blending profits and demand. However, high domestic canola oil inventories remain a concern [1] - The new season's canola planting is progressing well with expectations of increased production. Support is noted at 9200 - 9216 CNY and resistance at 9790 - 9798 CNY [1] Palm Oil Market - Palm oil prices are positively influenced by rising crude oil prices and favorable U.S. biodiesel proposals. Recent data shows a 4% decrease in palm oil production and a 17.7 - 26.3% increase in exports [1] - A cautious long position is recommended with support at 8100 - 8140 CNY and resistance at 8704 - 8798 CNY [1]