1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the US government shutdown, the US soybean and domestic soybean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly oscillating. Domestically, the supply of downstream soybeans remains abundant, with continuous arrivals of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Policy changes need to be closely monitored [2] - For corn, new corn is starting to be listed in parts of Northeast China. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the new grain is listed [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2902 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2348 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.84%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Market News**: Brazil exported 216.6 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with a daily average export of 27.1 million tons, a 26% increase from the daily average in October last year. As of October 9, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 soybean season reached 14% [1] 3.2 Market Analysis for Soybean Meal - The US government shutdown has led to a lack of data updates, and the market is oscillating. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, with high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going well. Policy changes need to be monitored [2] 3.3 Strategy for Soybean Meal - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.4 Market News and Important Data for Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2093 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.05%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2385 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton [3] - **Market News**: Brazil exported 260.8 million tons of corn in the first two weeks of October, with a daily average export of 32.6 million tons, a 12% increase from the daily average in October last year [3] 3.5 Market Analysis for Corn - New corn is starting to be listed in Northeast China. The opening price is slightly higher than last year, but the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation [4][5] 3.6 Strategy for Corn - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product [2][3][4] - The report suggests that while some products face supply and demand challenges, others show potential for price increases or are in a state of weak oscillation. Investors are advised to pay attention to policy changes, international trade relations, and seasonal factors [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a consolidation state after a rebound. The recent auction had a 66.3%成交 rate with an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. Concerns about US soybean export demand may pressure US soybean prices [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures decreased by 1.16% today. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 812 million tons, showing an increase. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations worsen. US soybean sales are slow, and relevant policies are delayed. It is advisable to wait and observe [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil followed the general decline of most commodities today. However, from the perspective of the oil - meal ratio, oils are still stronger than meals. The US soybean price is expected to be pressured by weak demand. The Malaysian palm oil market has weak demand and inventory pressure, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. It is recommended to buy oils at low prices after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures declined today and were among the top decliners in the oil - seed sector. The macro - economic sentiment has a greater impact than the fundamentals. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply is abundant, and rapeseed is not cost - effective in the demand side. It is recommended to use rapeseed as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies. Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the domestic rapeseed market will likely oscillate weakly [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are oscillating widely at the bottom. The new corn harvest in the northeast may lead to a price decline, but the winter wheat price increase may have an impact. The corn price is currently weak at the bottom, and a policy - based bottom is approaching [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market rebounded with increased positions. The decline of the spot price has slowed down, and some areas have seen a price rebound. Although the current price is at the bottom historically, there are no obvious bullish factors in the fundamentals. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which will support the futures contracts of the second half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has mixed trends, with some areas rising and others falling. The futures market shows a rebound in the near - term contracts and a decline in the far - term contracts. The mid - term egg price bottom has not been determined, and the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. It is recommended to hold a short position in the near - term contracts and a long position in the far - term contracts [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn industries is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the US soybean and domestic bean meal markets is mainly fluctuating due to the lack of data updates caused by the US government shutdown. The domestic downstream soybean supply remains sufficient, and attention should be paid to policy changes. For corn, the overall production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the new - season corn is listed. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Import Data**: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September 2025, imports were 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2] - **Sowing Progress**: As of October 10, Brazilian farmers had sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area for 2025, significantly higher than the 5.28% at the same time last year [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The US soybean and domestic bean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly fluctuating. The domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.55%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - **Production Forecast**: The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina's corn production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 61 million tons, higher than the previous year's 50 million tons. As of October 8, the corn sowing progress in Argentina was 25.6%, 7.9% faster than the same period last year [5] - **Export Data**: As of October 10, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 7.19 million tons, lower than 11.739 million tons in the same period last year [5] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, the new - season corn in some northeastern regions has started to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the concentrated listing. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the current new - season US soybeans are being harvested with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, leading to an expected reduction in overall output. However, due to the unclear outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and China's reduced imports of US soybeans, the export progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition between North and South America, further impacting US soybean exports. As a result, both CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure [2] - For the corn sector, in the domestic market, new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2933 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton or - 0.14% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2416 yuan/ton, a change of + 11 yuan/ton or + 0.46% [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 37, a change of + 4; in Jiangsu, it was 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 53, a change of + 4; in Guangdong, it was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 33, a change of + 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM01 + 164, a change of - 11 [1] - **Market Information**: As of Friday, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season reached 5.97%, much faster than the same period last year. For the week ending September 18, US soybean export sales net increased by 72.45 tons, with a market forecast of a net increase of 60 - 160 tons [1] 3.2. Market Analysis for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The new - season US soybean harvest is underway, with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, resulting in an expected reduction in overall output. Uncertain Sino - US trade policies and China's reduced imports slow down US soybean exports, pressuring CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition and impact US soybean exports. CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to China's imports from Argentina and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3.3. Market News and Important Data for Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2159 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton or - 0.87% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.12% [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 141, a change of + 19; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS11 + 87, a change of - 3 [3] - **Market Information**: The EU Commission's monthly report shows that the EU's corn production forecast for the 2025/26 season is lowered by 80 tons to 5680 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, far lower than the initial forecast of 6500 tons. Due to the continuous drought in Southeast Europe in the summer of 2025, the corn yield per hectare is expected to be 6.88 tons, 1% lower than last month's forecast and 3% lower than the five - year average [3] 3.4. Market Analysis for Corn - **Supply**: New - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain [4] - **Demand**: The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For rapeseed meal, near - term rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. After two days of sharp decline, the futures price rose with reduced positions to repair the moving - average deviation, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For rapeseed oil, Canadian rapeseed is expected to have a high yield, which exerts pressure on its price. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and domestic consumption support is limited with a loose supply - demand situation. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - term rapeseed purchases keep supply pressure low. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases, and the supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be tight. The tight supply expectation makes rapeseed oil lead the rise in the oil market, and the Sino - Canadian trade policy trend should be monitored [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 10142 yuan/ton, up 221; rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49; ICE rapeseed (active) is 617.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.3; rapeseed (active contract) is 5281 yuan/ton, up 1 [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 484 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 41507 yuan/ton, up 101 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is 39516 lots, up 21725; rapeseed meal is - 51747 lots, up 21457 [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 8057 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal is 9245 sheets, unchanged [2] - Main - contract open interest: Rapeseed oil is 347712 lots; rapeseed meal is 378057 lots, down 20054 [2] 现货市场 - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10040 yuan/ton, up 70; rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2490 yuan/ton, up 40; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8430 yuan/ton, up 80; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9170 yuan/ton, up 150; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2940 yuan/ton, up 40 [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 10105 yuan/ton, up 70 [2] - Import cost: Imported rapeseed is 7704.7 yuan/ton, up 0.1 [2] - Price differences: Oil - meal ratio is 3.93, down 0.03; rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot price difference is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10; rapeseed oil - palm oil spot price difference is 870 yuan/ton, down 80; soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot price difference is 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is - 102 yuan/ton, down 151; rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 46 yuan/ton, down 9 [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.58 million tons, up 0.04 million tons; annual forecast for a certain area is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - Rapeseed import quantity is 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons; import rapeseed crushing profit is 959 yuan/ton, up 12 [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 5 million tons, down 5 million tons; weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 13.06%, up 0.27% [2] - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; imports of rapeseed meal are 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2] 产业情况 - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 7.55 million tons, down 1.1 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 51.2 million tons, down 0.92 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 28.93 million tons, down 1.07 million tons [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 3.5 million tons, down 0.6 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21.4 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2] - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 1.55 million tons, down 2.78 million tons; weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.79 million tons, down 0.78 million tons [2] 下游情况 - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] - Edible vegetable oil production is 450.6 million tons, up 30 million tons [2] 期权市场 - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.79%, up 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.78%, up 0.9%; 20 - day historical volatility is 21.42%, up 1.01%; 60 - day historical volatility is 24.01%, up 0.41% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.31%, down 0.93%; 20 - day historical volatility is 10.68%, up 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility is 13.08%, down 0.15% [2] 行业消息 - ICE rapeseed futures were nearly flat on Wednesday, with little guidance from the soybean oil market. CBOT soybean futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about US export demand. Rapeseed meal 2601 contract rose 1.58% on Thursday. US soybeans are in the harvest period, and the expected high yield restrains prices. The Sino - US soybean trade situation remains deadlocked, and Argentina's export policy changes affect the market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the粕类 and玉米 sectors, the overall strategy is rated as neutral [3] 2. Core Views - The adjustment in this report is slightly higher than market expectations, with the price of US soybeans declining. Attention should be focused on the changes in the new - season US soybeans. In the Chinese market, the strengthening of Brazilian soybean premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, the domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should also be paid to Sino - US policy changes [2] - For corn, on the supply side, the remaining old - crop corn with traders is limited, and its price is firm. New - crop corn is gradually coming onto the market, and traders are trying to buy at lower prices. But due to the acquisition needs of deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang has slightly increased. On the demand side, feed enterprises mainly use their existing inventories and are cautious about purchasing new - crop corn, while deep - processing enterprises also hope to buy at lower prices. Attention should be paid to the listing and acquisition of new - crop corn [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data (粕类) - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean粕2601 contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕2601 contract was 2470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.41%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean粕 was 2980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the spot price of菜粕 was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Market Information**: Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects soybean exports in September 2025 to be 753 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's figure. From January to September 2025, exports are expected to reach 9563 million tons, and from October to December, 1600 million tons [1] Market News and Important Data (Corn) - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn2511 contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.74%); the closing price of the corn starch2511 contract was 2471 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - **Market Information**: Canada's 2025 wheat production is expected to be 3660 million tons, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, with an increase in both yield per acre and harvested area [3] Market Analysis - For soybeans, the US soybean price decline is due to the report adjustment. In China, higher import costs support domestic prices, but supply is abundant and downstream inventories are high [2] - For corn, the supply is in a state of transition from old - crop to new - crop, and the demand side is cautious, waiting for better prices [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for both sectors is neutral [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn market: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Attention should be paid to the situation of new - season US soybeans. In the domestic market, although the increase in Brazilian premiums has supported soybean prices to some extent, the supply is still sufficient and downstream inventory is high. Policy changes between China and the US need to be monitored [2]. - For the corn market, on the supply side, the new - season grain supply is abundant. On the demand side, feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious about purchasing new - season corn. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be focused on [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - 粕类 - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2504 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.07%) [1]. - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US soybean season, the planted area was expected to be 81.1 million acres, and the harvested area 80.3 million acres, both up 200,000 acres; the average yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, down 0.1 bushel; the production was 4.301 billion bushels, up 9 million bushels; the export forecast was 1.685 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels [1]. Market News and Important Data - Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.37%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.25%) [3]. - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US corn season, the yield per acre was down 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels/acre; the planted area was up to 98.7 million acres; the production was up 72 million bushels to 16.814 billion bushels; the export volume was up 100 million bushels to a record 2.975 billion bushels; the ending inventory was down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels [3]. Market Analysis - 粕类 - The bean meal futures price was weakly volatile. The adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. In the domestic market, the increase in Brazilian premiums supported soybean prices, but supply was sufficient and downstream inventory was high. Policy changes between China and the US need attention [2]. Market Analysis - Corn - **Supply**: Traders had little old - crop corn left, and the price of old - crop corn was firm. New - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market, and traders were trying to buy at lower prices. However, due to the demand from deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang increased slightly. New - season grain supply was abundant [4][5]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises mainly used their inventory and were cautious about purchasing new - season corn. Deep - processing enterprises also wanted to buy at lower prices. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be monitored [5]. Strategies - For the粕类 market, the strategy is neutral [3]. - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products from Guotai Junan Futures on September 16, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to take a long - position at low prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans closed higher, and the outcome of China - US negotiations should be monitored [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold condition [2][13]. - Soybean: It will fluctuate in a rebound [2][13]. - Corn: It will move in a sideways pattern [2][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to macro - policies [2][20]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2][24]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2][30]. - Pigs: The weakness of spot prices is hard to reverse, while policies are relatively strong [2][32]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][36]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,422 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,476 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,392 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase [5]. - **News**: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 742,648 tons, a 2.55% increase from the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August 2025 increased by 15.76% month - on - month to 990,528 tons [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [12]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,042 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,043 yuan/ton with a 0.26% decrease. DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,939 yuan/ton with a 0.43% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 3,946 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [13]. - **News**: On September 15, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to harvest pressure and concerns about Chinese demand. As of September 14, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 5% [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both soybean meal and soybean is +1 [15]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,167 yuan/ton with a 1.46% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,156 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [17]. - **News**: The northern corn collection and port price was 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for corn is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 16.67 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,549 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: India's monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for sugar is 1 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and the night - session closing price was 13,910 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase [24]. - **News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, and the inventory of high - quality lint was low [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for cotton is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,126 yuan/500 kg with a 2.90% increase, and egg 2601's closing price was 3,369 yuan/500 kg with a 0.51% increase [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for eggs is 0 [30]. Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 13,330 yuan/ton, and the Sichuan spot price was 13,100 yuan/ton [32]. - **Market Logic**: The supply in September is expected to increase significantly, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The 7 - month contract may be subject to policy regulation in the short term [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for pigs is 0 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,360 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market**: The new - season peanuts are expected to be listed in late September. The prices in various regions are generally stable [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for peanuts is 0 [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The MPOB report shows an inventory increase to 2.2 million tons, and the unexpected decline in the first 10 - day export data is bearish. There is a risk of the futures price falling below 4,400 ringgit and continuing to weaken. In the domestic market, it will first test the support at 9,000 yuan. If Malaysian palm oil continues to decline, domestic palm oil may follow suit [1]. - Soybean oil: Analysts expect the USDA report to lower the U.S. soybean yield forecast, but the high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is high, so the expectation of a bumper harvest remains. In the absence of Chinese purchases, the USDA may lower the U.S. soybean export forecast. The approaching harvest and concentrated supply pressure will weigh on the market. In the domestic market, although the demand season is coming, the current supply is excessive, and the basis quotation will fluctuate slightly [1]. Meal - The high - quality rate of U.S. soybeans is still high, suppressing market bullish sentiment. The U.S. soybean supply is strong and demand is weak, while Brazil's premium is strong, supporting domestic costs. Recently, domestic concerns about future supply have eased, and with soybean auctions, the spot market is loose. Oil mills' soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and weak terminal purchasing enthusiasm suppresses the basis. However, the cost provides good support, and the decline space of domestic meal is limited. The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is not expected to be loose [3]. Pork - The slaughter volume of farmers has stabilized, and the reluctance to sell at low prices has increased. Some areas have seen secondary fattening, which supports the spot price. Although the spot pressure has been realized, the price has reached a low level, and the room for further decline is limited. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. The market strengthened today due to the Ministry of Agriculture's meeting on capacity regulation, but there is still potential for decline after the short - term rebound, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large [6]. Corn - In the Northeast, the purchase and sale are dull, and the new season corn has not been massively listed, so the price is firm; in North China, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is slightly weak. As corn transitions to the new season, the old - season inventory is tight, and the new - season corn has not been massively listed, which slightly supports the price. However, the concentrated listing of corn in mid - to late September, the expected increase in production, and the decline in planting costs will put pressure on the price. On the demand side, the purchasing enthusiasm of deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. In the short term, the corn market has weak supply and demand, and the futures price is under pressure. In the medium term, it will maintain a weak pattern [8]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and the sugar - making ratio reached a new high, resulting in large supply pressure and the price falling below 16 cents per pound. The overall supply pressure of raw sugar remains large, and it is expected to maintain a weak pattern. However, as the sugar price approaches the含税 ethanol price, the future increase in the sugar - alcohol ratio in Brazil is limited. With the new sugar to be listed in less than a month and the pre - sale price lower than the current market price, the sales time for old sugar is limited. The futures price is weak, the market sentiment is bearish, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. Cotton - Some cotton ginning factories have started purchasing this week, but the pricing methods for wadding cotton and spinning cotton are different, and the new - cotton purchase driver is still unclear. In the short term, the price has limited upward and downward space, and the downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the confidence in the traditional peak season is low. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [13]. Eggs - In recent days, the increase in traders' purchases may drive up the egg price. However, the high inventory and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the market will limit the price increase. After the second and third rounds of replenishment in the second half of the week, the demand may weaken, and the risk of price decline increases. Overall, the egg price may rebound in early September, but the increase is limited, and a bearish view is maintained [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The prices of various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.15%, and the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.59% [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of different oil varieties have also changed. For example, the soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market increased by 6.67%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the 2509 contract increased by 9.76% [1]. - **Inventory and Import Profit**: The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China and the import profit of palm oil are also presented in the report [1]. Meal - **Price and Basis**: The prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans have changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, and the basis of the M2601 contract increased by 20% [3]. - **Import Profit and Spread**: The import profit of different origins and the spread between different meal varieties are shown. For example, the import profit of Brazilian soybeans in October decreased by 42.9%, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2601 contract increased by 1.52% [3]. Pork - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of futures contracts such as the main contract, the 2511 contract, and the 2601 contract of pork have changed, and the spot prices in different regions are also provided, along with indicators such as slaughter volume, white - strip price, and breeding profit [6]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of corn futures contracts such as the 2511 contract and the spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port and Shekou) have changed. The report also includes information on import profit, processing enterprise vehicle volume, and inventory [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The prices of corn starch futures contracts and spot prices in different regions (such as Changchun and Weifang) have changed, along with information on basis, spread, and processing profit [8]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of sugar futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Kunming and Nanning) have changed. The report also includes information on import sugar prices, basis, and industry indicators such as production, sales, and inventory [12]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of cotton futures contracts such as the 2601 and 2605 contracts and the spot prices in different regions (such as Xinjiang) have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as inventory, export volume, and processing profit [13]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of egg futures contracts such as the 10 and 11 contracts and the spot prices in different regions have changed. The report also includes information on basis, spread, and industry indicators such as egg - chicken chick price, culled - chicken price, and breeding profit [15][16].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn market shows different trends in different regions. In the Northeast, prices are rising, while in North China, prices are falling. Technically, the short - term price is adjusted, and the medium - term is expected to be weak due to high yield and lower costs [1]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell as investors adjusted positions before the supply - demand report, which is expected to show a slight decline in US soybean yield but still high production. Domestic bean meal prices are mainly oscillating, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: BMD palm oil declined due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit. Domestic oil futures prices are narrowly oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures rebounded, and spot prices are stable. The supply will affect egg prices in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pigs: Pig futures are weakly oscillating, and spot prices are also weak. The anti - dumping measures have limited impact, and the market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary - Canadian Agricultural Production: As of July 31, Canada's wheat production was 35.94 million tons, and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons; rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons, and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons [3]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory increased by 1.60% week - on - week, bean meal inventory increased by 9.09% week - on - week, and imported rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [3]. - Trading Arrangement: On September 11, 2025, a domestic soybean auction will be held, selling 22,500 tons of domestic soybeans [3]. - US Crop Forecast: Analysts expect US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.271 billion bushels, lower than the August estimate [3]. Group 4: Variety Spread - Contract Spread: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [4][5][6] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [12][13][16] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs [27]