1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and it's advisable to wait for stabilization and go long at low levels in the 3000 - 3050 range. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal spread may widen further [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig spot prices are stabilizing with minor fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support around 13800 for the 01 contract [3]. Corn - Spot corn prices are weak, and the futures price has rebounded. In the medium - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant, and the futures valuation may move down towards the new - season cost [6]. Oils - Palm oil maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For soybean oil, the industrial consumption in the US is uncertain, and the basis quote will be boosted after the factory inventory decreases [9]. Sugar - Raw sugar is under pressure from increased supply expectations, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillating weakly [11]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and new - cotton prices will face pressure after listing [12]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend [15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: Soybean meal spot price in Jiangsu is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Jiangsu dropped 2.34% to 2500 yuan/ton; soybean spot price in Harbin is 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.17% to 225; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal increased 36.36% to 75 [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract basis increased 42.42% to - 190; the price of the 2511 contract dropped 1.13% to 13590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with the sample - point daily slaughter volume increasing 0.32% to 142240 heads [3]. Corn - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract increased 0.97% to 2185; the 11 - 3 spread increased 40% to - 15 [6]. - **Spot**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit decreased 52.63% [6]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8740 yuan/ton, down 1.14%; the basis decreased 13.73% to 204 [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 9470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis decreased 4.35% to 46 [9]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 0.7%; the basis decreased 127.85% to 79 [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract dropped 0.32% to 5602 yuan/ton; the 1 - 9 spread increased 9.09% to - 10 [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning dropped 0.17% to 5910 yuan/ton; the import volume increased 160% to 130,000 tons [11]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract dropped 0.51% to 13690 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread decreased 20.63% to - 380 [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B dropped 0.06% to 15240 yuan/ton; the commercial inventory decreased 16.9% to 182.02 million tons [12]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract dropped 1.83% to 2843 yuan/500KG; the 9 - 10 spread decreased 10.13% to - 87 [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area dropped 0.81% to 3.26 yuan/jin; the breeding profit increased 20.84% to - 17.89 yuan/feather [14][15].

农产品日报（2025 年 8 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周，玉米主力 2511 合约增仓上行，期价小涨。周二，玉米 9 月合约领涨、11 | | | | 月合约跟涨。与上周相比，本周玉米现货报价表现疲软。东北玉米价格向新粮靠 | | | | 拢，目前以持续下调为主，市场对新季玉米的价格目前暂持谨慎之态，新季玉米 | | | | 干粮价格预估低于目前干粮价格。近期山东深加工企业玉米到货量有所增加，企 | | | | 业价格窄幅下调，昨日部分企业继续下跌，但下跌范围明显缩小。当前华北本地 | | | | 陈玉米和春玉米以及早期玉米、东北玉米共同供应市场，虽然陈粮库存少，但粮 | | | 玉米 | 源供应多样化。下游企业采购意愿较弱，控制采购节奏。销区市场玉米价格部分 | 震荡 | | | 港口下跌 10-20 元/吨，市场整体采购心态偏弱，饲料厂维持观望心态为主，港 | | | | 口走货速度偏慢，贸易商报价下调，短期市场需求难有较大回暖。技术上，11 | | | | 月合约成为主力合约，新粮上市的供应压力继续影响市场，玉米期 ...

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, it may test the support at 4,500 ringgit and could briefly drop to 4,350 ringgit. Pay attention to production and inventory data [1]. - Domestically, after the futures price stabilizes above 9,500 yuan, it may rise to the 9,800 - 10,000 yuan range, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak pattern [1]. Soybean Oil - CBOT soybean oil may experience narrow - range fluctuations. If the policy is not released, it may decline due to sufficient soybean supply in the US [1]. - Domestically, with the arrival of the consumption season, the inventory is expected to decrease, and the basis quote may rise [1]. Corn - Short - term: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the market is in a weak and volatile state [2]. - Medium - term: New - season corn costs are decreasing, production may increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant [2]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable with minor fluctuations. Short - term sentiment may support the market, but there may be a concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a small - scale long position in the far - month 01 contract below 14,000 [6]. Meal - US soybean prices are supported by weather and Chinese procurement expectations, but the domestic market may not rise smoothly due to import concerns. The cost support for domestic meals is strong in the fourth quarter [10]. Sugar - Raw sugar is under pressure from supply expectations but may be affected by potential production cuts in Brazil. It is expected to trade in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate narrowly [13]. Cotton - Short - term: Old - crop inventory is tight, supporting prices, but new - season production is expected to increase, so prices may fluctuate within a range [14]. - Long - term: New - cotton listing may put pressure on prices [14]. Eggs - Supply is sufficient, downstream digestion is slow, and egg prices are expected to remain bearish [16]. 3. Summary by Industry Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On August 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,740 yuan, up 0.58% from August 22; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,536 yuan, up 0.52% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On August 25, the spot price in Guangdong was 9,620 yuan, up 0.84%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,488 yuan, down 0.23% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On August 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan, up 0.30%; the futures price of OI601 was 9,998 yuan [1]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.97%, the basis increased by 63.08%, and the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 53.33% [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 0.68%, the basis increased by 8.02%, and the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 11.43% [2]. Live Pig Industry - The spot price was stable, the basis of the main contract decreased by 24.05%, and the sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 0.84% [5]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3,117 yuan, up 0.94% [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,580 yuan, up 1.57%; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,547 yuan, up 0.16% [10]. Sugar Industry - The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.32%, and the 1 - 9 spread increased by 42.86%. Nationwide sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year [13]. Cotton Industry - The futures price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.29%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 18.52%. Commercial inventory decreased by 16.9% month - on - month [14]. Egg Industry - The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 1.06%, the price of the 10 contract decreased by 0.40%, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased by 0.82% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to fluctuate. The 9 - month contract's main funds are shifting to forward contracts, with the far - month 1 and 3 - month contracts under pressure. Spot market prices show different trends in different regions, and the futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to rise. CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. In the domestic market, although there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline [1]. - Oils are expected to rise. BMD palm oil fell for the third day on Thursday, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve [1]. - Eggs are expected to fluctuate weakly. The futures price continued to decline, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to fluctuate. The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The 9 - month contract is approaching the delivery month with reduced positions, and the far - month contracts are under pressure. Northeast corn prices are slightly weak, Jiangsu's new - season corn has a low price, North China prices are stable with limited adjustments, and the sales area prices are generally stable with some ports rebounding. The futures price is in a short - term stalemate after a rapid decline [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose on Thursday. In the domestic market, there are rumors of state - reserve soybean auctions, but the import cost of soybeans is stable and slightly strong, limiting the decline. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in positive spreads between months [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, while US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed rose. In the domestic market, the prices of the three major oils declined, and the inventory pressure is increasing. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation may improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to decline on Thursday, and the spot price is under supply - side pressure in the short term. Although there may be a seasonal rebound in the future, the high is likely to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The supply is abundant, but as the high - temperature weather subsides, demand may recover, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - **USDA Drought Report**: As of the week ending August 19, about 9% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 3%, 7% last year), and about 5% of US corn - growing areas were affected (previously 4%, 6% last year) [3]. - **IGC Monthly Report**: The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast is slightly increased to 4.30 billion tons (year - on - year +1%), and the trade volume forecast is increased by 1 million tons to a record high (year - on - year +2%). The 2025/26 global corn production forecast is increased by 23 million tons to 12.99 billion tons, the trade volume is increased by 5 million tons to 192 million tons, the consumption is increased by 13 million tons to 12.85 billion tons, and the ending inventory is increased by 16 million tons to 2.94 billion tons [3]. - **India's Rapeseed Oil Purchase**: India purchased a batch of rapeseed oil to be delivered in August, the first in nearly five years, as the domestic price reached a three - and - a - half - year high [4]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons, despite increased production and accelerated exports. In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [4]. - **China's Central Reserve Frozen Pork Purchase**: Huachuwang announced a 10,000 - ton central reserve frozen pork purchase and auction on August 25, 2025 [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The content provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [5][6][7][11] - **Contract Basis**: The content provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, eggs, and hogs, but no specific analysis is given [13][14][17][24] Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F0243534 and Z0001262, and her email is wangn@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of experience in the futures industry and many honors. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3048706 and Z0013637, and her email is houxl@ebfcn.com.cn [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures trading qualification numbers are F3032578 and Z0013544, and her email is konghl@ebfcn.com.cn [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [3] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The downstream demand for粕类is good, and the soybean meal market maintains a volatile trend. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Brazilian premium is still strong, providing cost - side support. Attention should be paid to the situation of US soybeans and macro - policies [1][2] - For the corn market, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and demand is relatively stable. The market is focusing on the dynamics of new grain listings [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **粕类Market** - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3160 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2627 yuan/ton, a change of + 23 yuan/ton (+ 0.88%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: ProFarmer's on - the - spot inspection showed that the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota was the highest since 2020, and the USDA estimated that the state's soybean yield per acre in 2025 would be higher than last year [1] - **Market Analysis** - The domestic soybean supply is still relatively loose, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Sino - US trade policy still has uncertainties. The Brazilian premium is strong, providing cost - side support [2] **Corn Market** - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, a change of - 74 yuan/ton (- 2.89%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: ProFarmer's preliminary inspection showed that the corn yield prospects in Ohio and South Dakota were higher than last year and the three - year average. As of August 17, the corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the highest since 2016 [3] - **Market Analysis** - On the supply side in China, the channel inventories in Northeast and North China are relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is consolidating, and inventories continue to decline. Feed enterprises' corn positions have decreased, and they mainly make sporadic replenishments. The use of new wheat is stable. Overall, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and the market is concerned about new grain listings [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] Core Views - The domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The result of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed in the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is still uncertain. The Brazilian premium remains strong, and the cost side is still supported [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply side shows that the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. The demand side indicates that the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data -粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3161 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2604 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.54%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - US market: As of the week of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. As of the week of August 14, the US soybean export inspection volume was 47.4 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4886.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, reaching 95.8% of the annual export target [2] Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2563 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Forecast: ASAP Agri expects Ukraine's 2025 corn production to reach 3090 tons, an increase of 330 tons from the previous forecast. As of the week of August 14, the US wheat export inspection volume was 39.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The 2025/26 US wheat export inspection volume was 481.2 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [4] Market Analysis -粕类 - The domestic soybean supply is still abundant, and the fundamentals have no major changes. The result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on the policy end has a significant impact on the price of meal products. The Sino - US trade policy is uncertain, and the Brazilian premium remains strong, providing cost support [3] Market Analysis - Corn - On the supply side, the channel inventory in Northeast and North China is relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the inventory continues to decline. Feed enterprises mainly conduct sporadic replenishment. The price has insufficient upward momentum, and the market focuses on the listing of new grains [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a daily analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the supply and demand, price trends, and market factors affecting each product, offering investment suggestions based on short - and long - term outlooks [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans had a 44,521 - ton auction, with 27,733 tons sold at an average price of 4,145 yuan/ton. Market supply increased marginally, while demand was weak. The price gap with imported soybeans is shrinking. US crop inspections showed increased pod numbers in some states. Weather, policies, and imported soybeans should be monitored [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - As of August 17, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%. Future weather may challenge new - season crops. China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed boosted meal prices. 8 - 10 month soybean arrivals are expected to be around 10 million tons. Supply is sufficient this year, but there are uncertainties in the far - month. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections showed positive results for soybeans. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is negative. The price difference between Malaysian and Indonesian crude palm oil is weakening. Long - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures had a weak rebound. Chinese companies may import Australian rapeseed, with new crops expected to arrive at the end of the year. The market is expected to rebound in the short - term, and new import trends should be watched [6] Corn - As of August 19, China's CGSCA had 15 imported corn auctions, with a low total成交 rate of 36.38%. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71% as of August 17. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - Short - term spot prices are strengthening, but mid - term prices are expected to decline due to high supply. Policy may support prices at a certain level. A sell - on - rallies hedging strategy is recommended [8] Eggs - Egg futures are accelerating downward. Spot prices are weak, and over - capacity is a long - term issue. Mid - term, prices may continue to fall to reduce capacity. Short - term, profit - taking risks should be watched [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bullish, but in the domestic market, high oil - mill operating rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation suppress prices. However, uncertainties in fourth - quarter purchases, low near - month rapeseed arrivals, and peak aquaculture season support the market. Although soybean meal substitution weakens demand expectations, the market still maintains a bullish outlook despite increased volatility [2]. - For rapeseed oil, in the international market, supply - side risks in Indonesia and strong palm oil export data from Malaysia provide upward momentum. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil - mill operating rates reduce output pressure, fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weaken long - term supply. The market is still recommended to be participated in with a bullish approach despite increased volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9826 yuan/ton (up 69 yuan), rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2590 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan), ICE rapeseed (active) is 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton (up 6.3 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed (active contract) is 4966 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan) [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 month spread is 146 yuan/ton (down 19 yuan), rapeseed meal 1 - 5 month spread is 86 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan) [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions are 290,638 lots (down 5,858 lots), rapeseed meal main - contract positions are 434,330 lots (down 14,280 lots). Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long positions are 2,808 lots (up 5,092 lots), rapeseed meal's top 20 net long positions are - 5,037 lots (up 12,433 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil has 3,487 receipts (unchanged), rapeseed meal has 9,821 receipts (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9900 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2650 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8830 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9570 yuan/ton (up 270 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Averages and others: Average rapeseed oil price is 9965 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), import cost of rapeseed is 8306.78 yuan/ton (up 178.07 yuan), oil - meal ratio is 3.72 (down 0.06), rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 143 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 60 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), rapeseed oil - soybean oil spot spread is 1120 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), rapeseed oil - palm oil spot spread is 600 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread is 420 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume is 18.45 tons (down 15.1 tons), import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal import volume is 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons (up 5 tons), import rapeseed weekly operating rate is 11.94% (down 4.9%), and import rapeseed crushing profit is 596 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 11 tons (up 0.35 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 tons (down 0.65 tons), East China rapeseed oil inventory is 54.92 tons (down 0.58 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 33.25 tons (up 0.68 tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 5.5 tons (down 0.2 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 21 tons (down 1.5 tons) [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 3.47 tons (up 1.77 tons), and rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 2.72 tons (down 0.15 tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production is 2937.7 tons (up 175.6 tons), and edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan (up 129.4 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.22% (down 14.17%), put option implied volatility is 27.39% (down 1.71%), 20 - day historical volatility is 31.16% (up 6.81%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 21.29% (up 2.19%). Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13.52% (down 0.48%), put option implied volatility is 13.5% (down 0.53%), 20 - day historical volatility is 18.14% (up 0.46%), and 60 - day historical volatility is 14.58% (up 0.12%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures closed higher on August 15, with the most actively traded November contract up 6.40 Canadian dollars to 660.90 Canadian dollars/ton, and the January contract up 5.70 Canadian dollars to 672.70 Canadian dollars/ton. The market has stabilized after a sharp decline earlier in the week [2]. - The USDA's August supply - demand report shows that the US 2025/26 soybean harvest area is estimated at 80.1 million acres (down from 82.5 million acres in July), yield is 53.6 bushels/acre (higher than expected and July's estimate), production is estimated at 4.292 billion bushels (down from 4.335 billion bushels in July), and ending stocks are estimated at 290 million bushels (down 20 million bushels, the lowest in three years) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for the strategy [3][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there is no substantial progress in Sino - US policies, causing market concerns. In China, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is rising, the increase in Brazilian premiums and the lack of policy progress support the soybean meal price. For corn, the market supply and demand situation is complex, with low market confidence and weak demand. In the short term, the fundamentals of both are unlikely to change significantly, and policies and Brazilian premiums will be important factors affecting prices [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3157 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2686 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.36%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian Soybean Exports: It is estimated that the soybean export volume in August 2025 will be 880 million tons, a 10.3% increase from the same period last year. The export volume from August 10 - 16 was 234 million tons, and the estimated export volume from January to August 2025 will reach 8855 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2648 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Russian Wheat Planting Area: The wheat planting area will decrease from 28.506 million hectares to 26.904 million hectares, including a decrease in winter wheat from 16.134 million hectares to 15.815 million hectares and a decrease in spring wheat from 12.372 million hectares to 11.089 million hectares [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, there is no substantial progress in Sino - US policies, causing market concerns. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is rising, but the increase in Brazilian premiums and import costs support the soybean meal price. Future focus should be on new - season US soybeans and policy changes [2] 3.2.2 Corn - In China, the remaining grain in the market is less than the same period last year, but market confidence is low, and traders are actively selling. The upcoming listing of spring corn in North China can supplement the supply. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the demand is weak. Future focus should be on the output of new - season corn [4] 3.3 Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is cautious and bearish [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - The cotton market is currently experiencing a rebound in market sentiment. However, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to remain in a state of loose supply. In the short - term, cotton prices have bottom support, but in the long - term, there is limited upward space [2][3]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the expected recovery of global sugar production in the 2025/26 season and favorable weather conditions in major producing regions. At the same time, the rebound in import demand limits the overall decline of sugar prices. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [4][6]. - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand side is weak. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8][9]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,052 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. - US cotton growth: As of August 10, the budding rate, boll - setting rate, and flocculation rate of US cotton were all behind the same period last year and the five - year average [1]. Market Analysis - International: Affected by the "reciprocal tariff" and weak weekly signing of US cotton, the price of ICE US cotton moved down last week. The 25/26 global cotton market may be in a loose supply pattern, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. - Domestic: In July, the commercial cotton inventory decreased rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to remain low. The cotton price has short - term bottom support. However, the terminal demand is weak, and the new cotton production increase expectation restricts the upward space of cotton prices. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral attitude. Cotton prices have strong support below, but the long - term upward space is limited [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,608 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.63%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,815 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Price index: The FAO sugar price index in July averaged 103.3 points, down 0.2 points (0.2%) from June, falling for the fifth consecutive month [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The latest bi - weekly data from Brazil is bearish. Although some institutions have lowered Brazil's production estimate, the raw sugar futures are bottom - oscillating. - Zhengzhou sugar: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and a large amount of imported sugar has arrived at ports. The domestic spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the short - term upward pressure on Zhengzhou sugar is large [5][6]. Strategy - Take a neutral attitude. Short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the long - term trend is bearish [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Market price trends: Different pulp varieties in the imported wood pulp spot market showed differentiated price trends yesterday [6][7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year. Although the import volume is expected to decline in the second half of the year, the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Adopt a neutral attitude. The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [9].