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现货价格坚挺,豆粕延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a state of oscillatory operation due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern, high oil - mill operating rates, continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and the lack of sudden news stimuli after policy stabilization. Attention should be paid to the import situation of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - For corn, the supply in the domestic market is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The market situation also needs to focus on the new - season corn acquisition situation [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2777 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2359 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.77% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2570 yuan/ton [1] - **Corn and Corn Starch** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2502 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.44% [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Recent Market News - **Soybean** - US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 79.6 tons, lower than the market forecast of 100 - 125 tons [2] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [2] - Brazil exported 165 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 16.5 tons, a 73% increase from the daily average export volume in December 2024 [2] - **Corn** - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 158.3 tons, within the market forecast range of 100 - 160 tons [4] - Brazil exported 290.9 tons of corn in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 29.1 tons, a significant increase compared to December 2024 [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal** - The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The soybean meal price is mainly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [3] - **Corn** - In the domestic market, the supply is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The new - season corn acquisition situation needs attention [6] 3.4 Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [4][7]
下游采购谨慎,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-16 03:10
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal remains unchanged. With high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and no sudden news to stimulate the market after policy stabilization, the overall soybean meal price is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - In the domestic corn market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but the effective supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the sales progress may accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid while traders are eager to store high - quality grain [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2758 yuan/ton yesterday, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.43%) from the previous day. The rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2341 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 332, down 8. In Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was M05 + 292, up 2. In Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was M05 + 302, up 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM05 + 219, up 6 [1] - Market Information: As of December 11, the planting rate of the 2025/26 - season soybeans in Argentina was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The current supply - demand situation has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation, along with stable policies and no sudden news, lead to a volatile soybean meal price. High US soybean import costs require attention to US soybean imports and South American weather [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2601 contract closed at 2228 yuan/ton yesterday, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.62%) from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2513 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C01 + 97, up 24. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was CS01 + 137, up 13 [3] - Market Information: As of December 10, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 - season corn in Argentina was 59.2%, up from 44% a week ago, and the expected output may reach a record 61 million tons. The wheat harvest progress in Argentina was 60.2%, up 15 percentage points week - on - week [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell makes the effective supply tight. As prices rise and holidays approach, sales may speed up. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed demand is rigid while traders want to store high - quality grain [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [5]
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251212
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 05:12
Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face downward pressure if it fails to hold above 4,100 ringgit, with support at 4,000 ringgit. In China, there is a risk of downward break - out for palm oil futures, with support around 8,000 yuan. - For soybean oil, the EIA has lowered its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026. However, Fed rate cuts and the rebound of BMD palm oil support CBOT soybean oil. In China, the spot basis is shifting to the May contract, and the factory's soybean oil inventory is high but may decrease in Q1 2026. The basis of the January contract may decline slightly, while that of the May contract is supported [1]. Meal and Grains - U.S. soybeans lack trading highlights, with slow - growing Chinese demand and strong South American crop expectations. The market is not optimistic about medium - to - long - term U.S. soybean prices. - In China, the soybean meal supply is loose, but the market is speculating on longer soybean clearance times. The 1 - 5 positive spread has strengthened, and attention should be paid to its performance [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - There is some reluctance to sell in the market, and the spot price is stable. The southern pickling demand is increasing, but there are uncertainties in the December - January market due to potential pandemic impacts and secondary fattening. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is hard to improve. The futures market is struggling to rise and has fallen in the past two days. Monitor the pandemic situation [4]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure below 15 cents per pound. India's sugar production in Maharashtra is increasing. The overall raw sugar price is bearish. In China, the sugar - making process in Guangxi and Yunnan is accelerating, new sugar supply is increasing, and the market is weak. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [8][9]. Corn and Corn Starch - The price of corn in the northern port is rising slightly due to insufficient supply, while prices in the Northeast and North China are stable or weak. The demand side is cautious, with deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly making rigid purchases. The corn futures market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the continuity of supply [10]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, with a slight decrease in the number of laying hens in November but still at a high level. The market is moving goods at a normal pace, but demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly with limited downside [14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to weak U.S. export demand. In China, Zhengzhou cotton futures face increasing hedging pressure, and the spot basis is weakening, putting downward pressure on prices. However, the downstream demand for cotton is strong, limiting the downside. Attention should be paid to the 14,000 resistance level [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,600 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 8,268 yuan, up 0.56%. The basis was 328 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,964 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan on December 11, up 0.46%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,656 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis was - 75.51%. The import cost was 9,102.8 yuan, and the import profit was - 447 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,000 yuan on December 11, up 3.09%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,443 yuan, up 1.65%. The basis was 401 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 3,490 [1]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan on December 11, up 0.66%. The futures price of M2605 was 2,750 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 310 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 23,830 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan on December 11, up 1.26%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,323 yuan, down 0.26%. The basis was 87 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,173 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was - 233 yuan [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the main contract of live pigs (2605) was 11,820 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of the 2603 contract was 11,220 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 600 yuan, down 13.21%. The main contract's open interest was 154,716, up 3.54%, and the warehouse receipts were 523, up 40.21% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly increased. For example, the price in Henan was 11,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased by 0.61%, and the white - strip price decreased by 0.99%. The number of fertile sows decreased by 1.12% month - on - month [4]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,358 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.86 cents per pound, down 0.27%. The 1 - 5 spread was 113 yuan/ton, up 9.71%. The main contract's open interest was 391,467, up 62.10%, and the warehouse receipts were 611, up 54.29% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Kunming and Nanning was stable. The Nanning basis was 115 yuan, down 14.81%, and the Kunming basis was 75 yuan, down 21.05%. The imported sugar price from Brazil (in - quota) was 4,100 yuan/ton, up 2.07%, and (out - of - quota) was 5,195 yuan/ton, up 2.12% [8]. - **Industry Data**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, sales increased by 9.17%, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%. The sugar import volume increased by 38.89% [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On December 11, the price of the corn 2601 contract was 2,243 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The basis was 57 yuan, up 16.33%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 24 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 287 yuan, down 3.43%. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 11.10%, and the open interest was 2,216,177, up 0.38% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2601 contract was 2,523 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The basis was 67 yuan, up 15.52%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan, down 1.92%. The starch - corn 01 spread was 280 yuan, down 3.78%. The Shandong starch profit was 19 yuan, down 26.92%, and the open interest was 297,821, down 0.43% [10]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the egg 01 contract was 3,144 yuan/500KG, down 0.29%. The price of the 02 contract was 2,968 yuan/500KG, down 0.40%. The 1 - 2 spread was 176 yuan, up 1.73%. The basis was - 57 yuan/500KG, up 33.37% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.09 yuan per catty, up 0.64%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.85 yuan per chick, up 5.56%. The price of culled chickens was 3.86 yuan per catty, up 1.58%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.40, up 3.90%, and the breeding profit was - 22.62 yuan per chick, up 20.35% [14]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On December 11, the price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The ICE cotton main contract was 64.00 cents per pound, down 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 50.00%. The main contract's open interest was 460,016, down 3.02%, and the warehouse receipts were 2,967, down 0.10% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The CC Index: 3128B was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 12,898 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1,070 yuan/ton, down 7.94%, and the 3128B - 05 contract spread was 975 yuan/ton, down 7.14% [16]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory in Xinjiang increased by 28.7%, the industrial inventory increased by 0.9%, the import volume decreased by 10.0%, and the cotton shipment volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6%. The textile and clothing retail and export data showed growth [16].
棕油下挫、豆二劲升
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 14:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is bearish due to high inventory and low exports, while the soybean market is bullish but with limited upside potential. The hog market is weak due to high supply, and the egg market is pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. The sugar market is weak due to high supply, and the cotton market is supported by high sales rates but with increasing inventory [1][2][7][8][11][12][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is accelerating its decline due to the strongly bearish MPOB monthly supply - demand report. Domestic soybeans (Dou Er) are rising strongly due to unconfirmed news of import soybean clearance, but the upside may be limited. Hog price rebounds are blocked by increased supply, and the market may enter a low - level operation again [1] II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Palm Oil: Continuous Decline - The palm oil 2605 contract is continuously falling, pressured by the bearish MPOB supply - demand monthly report. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 13.04% to 284 tons, much higher than expected; production decreased by 5.3% to 194 tons, lower than expected; exports decreased by 28.13% to 121 tons, lower than expected. The technical indicators are weak, and the strategy is to go short with a light position on rallies [2][5] (2) Dou Er and Soybean Meal: Sharp Rise - The Dou Er 2601 contract is rising sharply, and the soybean meal January contract is also rising. The unconfirmed news of extended import soybean clearance has boosted the market sentiment. The USDA's December soybean supply - demand report has little impact on the soybean market. The strategy for Dou Er is to go long short - term with a stop - loss, and for soybean meal 2605, hold short positions [7] (3) Hogs: Rebound Blocked, Weak and Volatile - The hog 2603 contract's rebound is blocked, and it turns weak again. Although terminal consumption has increased, high pig inventory, high planned slaughter volume of large pig farms, and pig diseases have increased supply and suppressed pig prices. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term [8] (4) Eggs: Forward Contracts are Weak - The egg 2603 contract is weakly declining, pressured by high egg - laying hen inventory. Although market demand has increased at the end of the year, the latest data shows a decline in old hen slaughter, and the reduction of production capacity is still uncertain. The strategy is to go short with a light position [11] (5) Sugar: Declining in Volatility - The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract is declining in a weak operation, affected by the supply pressure of new sugar listing. The seasonal supply pressure of sugar is still large, and downstream demand is average. The strategy is to go short with a light position, with a resistance at 5242 [12][14] (6) Cotton: Closing Up in Volatility - The cotton 2605 contract is rising in volatility and running at a high level. The high sales rate of cotton in Xinjiang supports the price, but commercial inventory is increasing. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with a stop - loss reference to the 10 - day moving average [15]
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251209
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 07:00
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There are concerns about inventory growth and weak December exports. It is oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures may weaken under the influence of Malaysian palm oil, with a possible decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan. - The market expects an increase in the US soybean ending inventory, which pressures CBOT soybeans and affects CBOT soybean oil. The decline of BMD palm oil also drags down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the decline of international related varieties has a greater impact on Dalian soybean oil. Factory开机率 has decreased, but the inventory change is not significant due to limited downstream demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Although large - scale enterprises still have significant sales pressure, the increasing demand for southern curing and the potential entry of secondary fattening may support prices. However, the overall large - scale production increase pattern remains unchanged. - The futures market is affected by a positive macro - atmosphere. Bullish funds are actively entering the market, and the futures may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [3]. 2.3 Meal and Bean Industry - The US soybean price is in a correction, and China's policy - based procurement is uncertain. The domestic meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the single - side price is under pressure. The key lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic arrival volume in March. The market outlook is weak, but the basis may strengthen [6]. 2.4 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures slightly increase, but the sufficient supply and weak demand in the spot market suppress the upward movement of futures prices. Brazil's sugar exports in early December increased. India's sugar production has increased significantly, and the overall raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a volatile and weak trend [9]. 2.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast region, the price is stable due to the support of inventory replenishment and policy procurement. In the north - central region, prices are firm due to the shortage of high - quality grains. On the demand side, some deep - processing enterprises are in deficit, and feed enterprises have low enthusiasm for long - term inventory building. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term, but the decline may be limited [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower. Traders are cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. US cotton export sales increased significantly in the week ending November 6. Domestically, the hedging pressure on Zhengzhou cotton is increasing, but the rigid demand from the industrial downstream and the good profit situation of textile enterprises may limit the downward space. The cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply side still has significant pressure, with a high inventory of laying hens and slow decline. The demand side lacks obvious positive factors, but the positive market sentiment provides some support. Egg prices are expected to be weak with limited downward space [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 0.44% to 8,230 yuan, and the basis increased by 10.78% to 370 yuan. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.57% to 8,690 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 0.73% to 8,706 yuan, and the basis increased by 46.67% to - 16 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.00% to 8,960 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 1.21% to 9,502 yuan, and the basis increased by 4.30% to 388 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 6.45% to 198 yuan, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 50.00% to 4 yuan, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 8.06% to 228 yuan. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 35.71% to - 90 yuan, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 1.76% to - 670 yuan, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 7.19% to 1,290 yuan, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 5.92% to 1,272 yuan [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures Indicators - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 increased by 1.27% to 11,955 yuan/ton, and the price of 2603 increased by 2.71% to 11,385 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 20.83% to - 570 yuan. The main contract positions increased by 81.80% to 151,512, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 108 [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Indicators - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.07% to 217,041 heads, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.21 yuan, the weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 17.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.46% to 129.82 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 13.31% to - 168 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 4.25% to - 259 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [3]. 3.3 Meal and Bean Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.65% to 3,040 yuan, and the futures price (M2605) decreased by 1.52% to 2,778 yuan. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.47% to 2,342 yuan. - **Soybean**: The warehouse receipt of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 15,766 [6]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread decreased by 2.61% to - 3 yuan, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread increased by 4.35% to - 66 yuan, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.66% to 2.83, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.80% to 436 yuan [6]. 3.4 Sugar Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.64% to 5,337 yuan/ton, the price of 2605 increased by 0.21% to 5,244 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.07% to 14.83 cents/pound. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32.86% to 93 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 8.69% to 289,716, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 181, and the effective forecast increased by 714.21% to 1,490 [9]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,360 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan. The basis in Nanning decreased by 8.66% to 116 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 28.97% to 76 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 0.37% to 4,079 yuan, and (outside quota) decreased by 0.39% to 5,168 yuan [9]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [9]. 3.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.5.1 Corn - The price of corn 2601 decreased by 1.48% to 2,261 yuan, the basis increased by 97.14% to 69 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 144.44% to - 4 yuan. The northern - southern trade profit decreased by 20.41% to 39 yuan, the import profit decreased by 15.13% to 314 yuan, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 13.64% to 399, the positions decreased by 2.25% to 2,354,124, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 57,705 [11]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 1.51% to 2,549 yuan, the basis increased by 1950.00% to 41 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.74% to - 38 yuan, the 01 spread between starch and corn decreased by 1.71% to 288 yuan, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 25.00% to 6 yuan, the positions decreased by 2.52% to 333,585 [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.04% to 13,725 yuan/ton, the price of 2601 remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan/ton, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.33% to 63.74 cents/pound. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 16.67% to - 25 yuan. The main contract positions decreased by 1.75% to 489,062 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.62% to 2,753, and the effective forecast increased by 8.02% to 3,004 [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.17% to 14,847 yuan, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.09% to 15,009 yuan, and the FC Index of M: 1% decreased by 0.08% to 12,843 yuan [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased by 28.7% to 468.36 million tons, industrial inventory increased by 0.9% to 93.96 million tons, imports decreased by 10.0% to 9.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.8% to 32.20 million tons [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the egg 01 contract increased by 1.15% to 3,153 yuan/500KG, and the price of 02 increased by 0.80% to 3,038 yuan/500KG. The egg - producing area price increased by 0.41% to 2.98 yuan/FT, the basis decreased by 15.45% to - 178 yuan/500KG, and the 1 - 2 spread increased by 11.65% to 115 yuan [19]. 3.7.2 Related Indicators - The price of laying hens increased by 5.56% to 2.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens increased by 1.58% to 3.86 yuan/FT, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% to - 22.62 yuan/feather [19].
晚富士多地出库放缓,红枣市场按需主导成交
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 02:43
Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Oscillating and Bullish [3] Core View - The apple market is in a slow - moving state with regional price differentiation. In the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the approaching Christmas and New Year's Day holidays and the tight supply of high - quality goods [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract was 9712 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [1] - The inventory of late Fuji is in light trading. In the western and Shandong production areas, merchants' procurement enthusiasm is low, and the market is mainly supplied by self - stored goods or small - quantity purchases. The sales area has a slow digestion rate, and citrus fruits have a significant impact on medium - and low - grade apple supplies [1][2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated and closed lower. The overall apple market trading is light, the production area's delivery rhythm is slow, and prices show regional differentiation. The market is in a slack season, and prices are expected to be stable, waiting for festival stocking [2] Strategy - The strategy is oscillating and bullish. Quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium term, prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong due to the approaching festivals and the tight supply of high - quality goods [3] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core View - The red date market is in a critical "new - old season transition" period. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined. The current market has high inventory pressure and a pessimistic future outlook [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract was 9055 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] - The acquisition of gray dates in Xinjiang's main production areas is about 80% complete. The mainstream prices in different regions vary. The sales areas' markets have different trading situations, with some price differences and weak transactions [4][5] Market Analysis - The red date futures price declined yesterday. The sales area is in a state of "new - old season transition." The new - season production reduction expectation is strong, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality is better than last year. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot, it will drive the futures price to approach the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. Due to the changes in the delivery rules, the old - season red dates can still participate in delivery with lower costs, so the near - month contracts may still have some room for decline [7]
现货价格稳中上涨,豆粕窄幅震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:59
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - After the China - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand side of the new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [2] - In the corn market, the rapid temperature drop in Northeast China, the low moisture content and high quality of new - season corn have increased farmers' willingness to store. With sufficient funds of traders and the entry of futures - cash companies, the competition on the acquisition side has intensified, supporting the current corn price [4] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Category Soybean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.03%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remained unchanged at 3080 yuan/ton, 3020 yuan/ton, and 3010 yuan/ton respectively. As of November 29, the sowing progress of 2025/26 soybeans in Brazil was 86.0%, higher than the previous week and the five - year average but lower than last year. In September, the US used 1.053 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - **Market Analysis**: The focus is on China's procurement of US soybeans. The 10% additional import tariff on US soybeans and the decline in South American soybean premiums have weakened the competitiveness of US soybeans [2] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [3] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2259 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.71%) from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract was 2562 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.63%). In December 2, UCAB reported that Ukraine's agricultural exports in November increased by 12% to about 5 million tons [3] - **Market Analysis**: The cold weather in Northeast China, high - quality new - season corn, and the entry of traders and futures - cash companies have supported the corn price [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral [5] Rapeseed Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2408 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day. The spot price in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] Corn Starch - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2562 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.63%) from the previous day. The spot price in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20251204
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 01:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range trading temporarily [2] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, mainly oscillating [2] - Soybean meal: US soybeans are waiting for Chinese purchases, and Dalian soybean meal is oscillating [2] - Soybean: Stable spot prices, and the futures market is still oscillating [2] - Corn: Operating in an oscillatory manner [2] - Sugar: Operating weakly [2] - Cotton: Both supply and demand are strong [2] - Eggs: The volume of culling has increased, and the sentiment for replenishing chicks has also strengthened [2] - Pigs: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic is returning [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures were presented. For example, the palm oil main contract had a daytime closing price of 8,730 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase, and a night - session closing price of 8,716 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% decrease [4]. - **News**: Due to the decline in exports in November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory soared to the highest level in more than six years, increasing by 10% from the previous month to 2.71 million tons, 47% higher than a year ago [5]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and basis of DCE soybean, DCE soybean meal, CBOT soybean, and CBOT soybean meal were provided. For instance, DCE soybean 2601 had a daytime closing price of 4139 yuan/ton with a + 0.29% increase [11]. - **News**: On December 3, CBOT soybean futures closed down as the market awaited news of new US soybean sales. The US Treasury Secretary said China would fulfill its commitment to buy 1.2 billion tons of soybeans by the end of February 2026, and some analysts worried about the impact of Brazil's record - high soybean harvest [11][13]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Information on important spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of corn was given. For example, the C2601 contract had a daytime closing price of 2,259 yuan/ton with a 0.71% increase [15]. - **News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port collection price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou bulk shipping price increased by 20 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were strong, while some North China corn prices were under pressure [16]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Data on the prices, price spreads, and basis of raw sugar, mainstream spot sugar, and futures sugar were presented. For example, the raw sugar price was 14.92 cents/pound with a - 0.05% change [18]. - **News**: As of the end of November, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased significantly. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year. China's sugar imports in October were 750,000 tons (+210,000 tons) [18]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: Information on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and price spreads of cotton futures and related products was provided. For example, the CF2601 contract had a daytime closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% decrease [23]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading increased slightly, and the mainstream basis changed little. The trading of pure - cotton yarn was average, and some spinning mills producing low - count yarns reduced their operating rates [24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, price spreads, and spot prices of egg futures were given. For example, the egg 2601 contract had a closing price of 3,138 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 2.40% decrease [29]. - **No specific news was provided other than the fundamentals.** Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Information on the spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of pigs was presented. For example, the Henan spot price was 11,280 yuan/ton with a - 50 yuan/ton change [32]. - **No specific news was provided other than the fundamentals.** Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Data on the spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price spreads of peanuts were given. For example, the PK601 contract had a closing price of 8,052 yuan/ton with a - 0.89% decrease [35]. - **News**: In the spot market, the prices in most regions of Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were stable or slightly weak, and the trading volume was not large [36].
现货涨跌互现,豆粕维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 05:09
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - After the Sino - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand side of the new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [3] - In the corn market, due to the temperature drop in Northeast China, the low moisture content and good quality of new - season corn, farmers are more likely to hold back sales when prices fall. Meanwhile, the competition among buyers is intensifying, which supports the current corn price [5] Group 3: Market News and Key Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2423 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 35, down 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 25, down 6; in Guangdong, it was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 35, down 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM01 + 177, unchanged [1] - Market Information: StoneX estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 1.772 billion tons, a 0.9% reduction from its November forecast. As of October 23, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 1449800 tons, up 31% from the previous week and 57% from the four - week average. US soybean export shipments were 1388200 tons, down 20% from the previous week but up 48% from the four - week average. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 89% of the expected area, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but still lower than last year's 91% [2] Group 4: Market News and Key Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2243 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.16%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C01 + 52, up 3 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS01 + 54, down 4 [4] - Market Information: StoneX estimated Brazil's 2025/26 corn production at 1.344 billion tons, a 0.6% reduction from its November forecast. As of October 23, US current - market - year corn export sales net increased by 1805300 tons, down 36% from the previous week and 7% from the four - week average. US corn export shipments were 1332500 tons, down 6% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average [4] Group 5: Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - After the Sino - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. With an additional 10% import tariff on US soybeans and the decline in South American soybean premiums, the competitiveness of US soybeans is weakened. The procurement progress of US soybeans and the price difference between North and South American soybeans need to be closely monitored [3] Group 6: Market Analysis (Corn) - In Northeast China, the rapid temperature drop, low moisture content, and good quality of new - season corn make it easier for farmers to store. When prices fall, farmers are less willing to sell. At the same time, with sufficient funds of traders and the participation of futures - cash companies in the acquisition, the competition among buyers is intensifying, which supports the current corn price [5] Group 7: Strategies - For the soybean meal market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is neutral [6]
供应方面仍有影响,盘面阶段性反弹
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 13:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side still has an impact, and the futures market has staged a rebound [1]. - The overall situation of the international soybean market remains relatively stable, and price changes are expected to be limited. In the medium to long - term, there is still price pressure on domestic soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is expected to face significant supply - side pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3045, 2848, and 2957 respectively, with price increases of 6, 13, and 10. For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2423, 2413, and 2479 respectively, with price increases of 0, 10, and 11. The spot basis and price differences of various varieties and regions are also presented [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of soybean meal are 197, - 109, and - 88 respectively, with changes of - 7, 3, and 4. The 15 - spread, 59 - spread, and 91 - spread of rapeseed meal are 10, - 66, and 56 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 1, and 11 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 are 622 and 478 respectively, and the oil - meal ratio of 01 is 2.722 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the market has already fully reflected the positive factors. The U.S. soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by changes in soybean exports and crushing. South American supply - side impacts are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery's operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient market supply and increasing提货量. As of November 28, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2008 million tons, the operating rate was 60.54%, the soybean inventory was 7.3396 million tons, an increase of 189,700 tons (2.65%) from the previous week and 2.3661 million tons (47.57%) compared to the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, an increase of 51,700 tons (4.49%) from the previous week and 368,700 tons (44.18%) compared to the same period last year. The demand for rapeseed meal has gradually weakened, the refinery's operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains low, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **U.S. Soybeans**: There are limited bullish factors for U.S. soybeans recently, and the market is mainly in a volatile state. If exports do not improve significantly in the future, it is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state [7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market, and due to the tightening of the South American market, price support is still relatively strong [7]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The current domestic soybean meal market has relatively loose supply and demand, which exerts pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures market. In the medium to long - term, price pressure still exists [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by rumors about Australian rapeseed, the rapeseed meal futures market has declined. The overall market demand is average, and it is expected that the supply - side pressure will still be significant [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Continue to make small - scale long positions [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - **Options**: Implement a strategy of selling wide - straddles [8].