1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is expected to improve after August, suggesting a long - position strategy for soybean meal futures [1][18]. - Palm oil may experience a short - term correction, but a long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [1][18]. - New - crop corn is likely to face seasonal selling pressure, and a short - position strategy is advised [1][18]. - The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [2][18]. - Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [3][87][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上期策略回顾 - Corn: The price performance in the past two months was generally in line with expectations. After July, the price of corn futures accelerated its decline [13]. - Oils: The "YP09 spread narrowing" strategy performed well from mid - May to mid - July [14]. - Strength - weakness allocation strategy: In the one - month period until June 13, the multi - short allocation portfolio was profitable by 5.7% [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - Soybean meal: Bullish in 3 - 6 months. Consider long positions in M2509 and M2601 on dips, with stop - loss levels at 2850 and 2950 respectively [18]. - Palm oil: Bearish in 1 month. Consider short positions in the 09 contract, with a profit - taking level at 8500 and a stop - loss level at 8800 [18]. - Corn: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the 11 contract on rallies, with a stop - loss above 2350 and a profit - taking level around 2100 [18]. - Cotton: Bearish in 3 - 5 months. Consider short positions in the January contract around 14000 yuan/ton, with a profit - taking level at 13000 - 13200 and a stop - loss level at 14300 - 14500 [18]. 3.2.2套利策略 - P2509 - P2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 50 to - 100 and the stop - loss level at 100 [20]. - CF2511 - CF2601: Consider a reverse arbitrage strategy. Set the profit - taking level at - 300 (for non - delivery funds) and the stop - loss level at 50 [20]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - Soybean meal: The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is unlikely to drop significantly, and the supply - demand situation of soybean meal will improve. Key indicators include Brazilian export CNF premiums and China's monthly soybean imports [21]. - Oils: Palm oil may face a short - term correction as the growth in production picks up in July. However, its downward space is limited due to its cost - effectiveness. Key indicators include China's palm oil inventory and international soybean - palm oil spreads [32]. - Corn: The supply - demand gap in the 25/26 season is likely to shrink. If the old - crop gap is revised downwards, the new - crop price may decline earlier and more significantly. Key indicators include northern port corn inventories and deep - processing enterprise corn inventory - consumption ratios [39]. - Cotton: The upward momentum of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high - cost resource release. The January contract faces heavy hedging pressure. Key indicators include domestic cotton commercial inventories and Zhengzhou cotton 9 - month contract positions [51]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Bullish in the long term, but the upward drive is uncertain in the short term. It is advisable to go long on dips [68][83]. - Palm oil: May face a short - term correction, but long - position strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long term [68]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the expected reduction in the supply - demand gap [68][70]. - Cotton: The upward space is limited, and short - position and arbitrage strategies are recommended [71][86]. - Sugar: The international market is in a bearish cycle, and the domestic market is expected to be weak in the third quarter and may have a phased rebound in the fourth quarter [70]. - Livestock and poultry: The supply of live hogs and eggs is expected to be loose in the second half of the year, and short - position strategies are recommended in the medium - to - long term [70]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - **资金面动态**: In the past month, the agricultural futures sector had a net inflow of funds, with palm oil and soybean oil leading in terms of capital inflow, while corn and rapeseed oil had the largest net outflows [74]. - **各品种基差及基差率（2025年7月14日）**: The basis and basis rate of each agricultural product variety are provided, which can help investors understand the price relationship between futures and spot markets [78]. - **农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略**: Short - to - medium - term: Long soybean meal 09 and rapeseed meal 09; short egg 09, corn 11, and cotton 01. Medium - to - long - term: Long soybean meal and palm oil on dips; short live hogs on rallies [87][88].

Group 1: Agricultural Futures Market Overview - The soybean market is experiencing low prices due to reduced demand and limited trading activity, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 4235 - 4250 CNY/ton and support at 4080 - 4100 CNY/ton [1] - The peanut market is under pressure from increased planting areas in Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, with the 10 contract support at 8004 - 8020 CNY and resistance at 8380 - 8392 CNY [1] - The soybean oil market is seeing a decline in prices due to weak demand and sufficient supply, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 8100 - 8130 CNY and support at 7830 - 7850 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Oilseed and Meal Markets - The canola oil market is affected by falling crude oil prices and increased domestic supply, with the 09 contract support at 9210 - 9320 CNY and resistance at 9600 - 9790 CNY [1] - The palm oil market is experiencing adjustments due to rising inventories and reduced export demand, with support at 8200 - 8210 CNY and resistance at 8566 - 8592 CNY [1] - The soybean meal market is seeing a weak domestic fundamental outlook, with the 09 contract resistance at 3100 - 3150 CNY and support at 2880 - 2900 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Corn and Livestock Markets - The corn market is under pressure from increased supply and import auction focus, with the 09 contract support at 2330 - 2340 CNY and resistance at 2430 - 2450 CNY [1] - The live pig market is experiencing increased supply, with the 09 contract reference range at 13600 - 14200 points [1] - The egg market is seeing a potential rebound after a low, with strategies suggested for the 08 contract [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Cotton and sugar prices are rising, while hog prices are falling. Other products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., also have their own specific market conditions and price trends [1]. Summary by Variety Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract soared. Positive factors include the substantial progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, domestic macro - benefits, and a decline in port inventory. However, the textile industry is in the off - season, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 13100 and resistance at 13300 [2][3]. Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract rose strongly. Overseas market price increases and strong domestic demand (April sales rate reached a 25 - year high) boosted the price. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5859 and resistance at 5900 [4][8]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2509 contract fluctuated, first falling and then rising, but the downward trend remained. The increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory put pressure on prices. The strategy is to hold light short positions on rallies, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2912 [7]. Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract rebounded, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in production and inventory in Malaysia and the expected increase in domestic supply limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 7940 and resistance at 8076 [9]. Soybean No.1 - The soybean No.1 main 2507 contract rebounded and fluctuated. Although there is support from less remaining beans in the Northeast, weak demand and the expected increase in imported soybeans limit the rebound space. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4185 [11]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract fluctuated upward, driven by the strengthening of crude oil. However, the increase in imported soybeans and inventory may limit the upward space. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 7762 and resistance at 7852 [14]. Corn - The corn main 2507 contract adjusted at a high level. Profit - taking and the expected increase in US corn imports put pressure on the price, but factors such as less remaining grain in the producing area and strong demand limit the adjustment space. The strategy is to close long positions, with support at 2360 and resistance at 2389 [15][17]. Hog - The hog 2509 contract continued to decline weakly. High inventory and weak demand led to the downward trend. The strategy is to short on rallies, with support at 13800 and resistance at 13930 [18]. Egg - The egg main 2506 contract rebounded. Spot price increases due to补货 demand and approaching festivals supported the rebound, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the rebound space. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2898 and resistance at 2940 [20]. Apple - The apple main 2510 contract rebounded slightly. Although the inventory is at a five - year low, the slowdown in sales and uncertain fruit - setting conditions due to abnormal weather make the market trend uncertain. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7800 and resistance at 7903 [22].