1．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。概括起 来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持 必要水平，确保总体支出力度只增不减。 2.财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，本次优化调整个人消费贷款贴息政策，将信用卡账单 分期业务纳入到了贴息范围，取消现有政策当中对一些消费领域的限制。新政策意味着只要是消费贷款 都可以享受贴息。 重要的消息有哪些 1月21日（周三）申购提示 新股方面，美德乐申购代码920119，发行价格41.88元/股 ，发行市盈率为14.99倍，单一账户申购上限为 72万股。 投资有风险，申购需谨慎。 4.财政部等部门发布关于延续实施养老、托育、家政等社区家庭服务业税费优惠政策的公告，为社区提 供养老、托育、家政等服务的机构，按照规定享受税费优惠政策。 3.财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明确自2026 年4月1日起取消光伏等产品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税政策调整，有利 于促进资源高效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is adjusting its export tax rebate policy, particularly for solar, phosphor chemical products, and batteries, to promote high-quality economic development and green transformation [3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced that starting from April 1, 2026, export tax rebates for solar, phosphor chemical products, and batteries will be canceled, following a reduction in tax rebate rates in December 2024 [3]. - This policy adjustment aims to enhance resource efficiency, reduce environmental pollution, and lower carbon emissions, aligning with China's transition to a greener economy [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The changes in export tax rebates are intended to guide reasonable adjustments in industrial structure and promote industrial transformation and upgrading [3]. - The policy is part of a broader strategy to combat "involution" competition and foster high-quality economic development [3].

Group 1 - The Chinese government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds to support consumption and economic transformation, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer subsidies, expected to boost related sales by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [1] - The government aims to enhance consumption by implementing personal consumption loan and service industry loan interest subsidy policies, as well as supporting new consumption models and international consumption environment [1] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is projected to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with new government debt expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant rise compared to previous years [3] Group 2 - The government will continue to arrange ultra-long special bonds in 2026 for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, optimizing policies and improving the effectiveness of bond funds [4] - The Ministry of Finance will maintain a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that total expenditure increases while optimizing structure and improving efficiency [5] - Local government debt risks are gradually being mitigated, with an average interest cost reduction of over 2.5 percentage points after debt replacement [6] Group 3 - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and electronic products is aimed at promoting efficient resource utilization and addressing "involution" in competition, thereby fostering high-quality economic development [7] - A new policy will provide risk-sharing funds from the central government to support private enterprises and private equity investment institutions in issuing bonds, offering credit support to mitigate investor losses [8] - Preliminary data suggests that the fiscal revenue and expenditure for 2025 may achieve balance, with strong budgetary support for economic and social development [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's proactive fiscal policies aimed at boosting economic growth and enhancing the quality of life for citizens, with a focus on consumption and structural adjustments in the economy. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - In 2025, the government plans to issue special long-term bonds totaling 1.3 trillion yuan, with 300 billion yuan allocated for consumer subsidies to stimulate sales exceeding approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [2] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with new government debt expected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [4] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that total expenditure increases while optimizing structure and enhancing efficiency [6] Group 2: Consumer Support and Debt Management - The government will optimize personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies, allowing all consumer loans to qualify for subsidies, including credit card installment payments [13] - Local government debt risks are gradually being mitigated, with an average interest cost reduction of over 2.5 percentage points after debt replacement [7] - A new risk-sharing fund will be established to support private enterprises and private equity investment institutions in issuing bonds, providing credit support to mitigate investor losses [10] Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Market Regulations - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and electronic products aims to promote efficient resource utilization and address "involution" in competition [9] - The government will continue to arrange special long-term bonds for "two new" and "two heavy" projects in 2026, optimizing policy and enhancing the effectiveness of bond funds [5] - The aim is to create a more favorable consumption environment through the introduction of new consumption scenarios and support for innovative business models [2]

Group 1 - The central government will maintain a proactive fiscal policy in 2026, ensuring that overall expenditure increases and key areas are strongly supported [1] - The total fiscal deficit, debt scale, and expenditure will remain at necessary levels, with a commitment to "only increase" in overall spending [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products and electronics aims to promote efficient resource utilization and address disordered competition [2] Group 2 - In 2025, the central government allocated approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for basic pension insurance subsidies, with a 2% increase in pension levels [3] - The new government debt scale for 2025 is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a more aggressive fiscal policy [5] - The focus of the loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises will be on 14 key industrial chains, including new energy, automotive, and medical equipment [6] Group 3 - In 2026, the government will continue to issue ultra-long special bonds to support "two new" and "two heavy" construction projects, optimizing policy and enhancing the effectiveness of bond funds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for certain products, including photovoltaic (PV) products, effective April 1, 2026, marking a significant policy adjustment that has raised concerns across the industry chain [1][2] Policy Adjustment - The adjustment specifically targets the export of PV products, including monocrystalline silicon wafers, solar cells, and PV modules, which are primarily affected by the policy change [2] - The previous reduction of the export rebate rate from 13% to 9% in December 2024 is part of a broader trend of tightening export rebate policies amid declining global PV prices and increasing competition [2][3] Cost Impact - The cancellation of approximately 9% export rebate is expected to increase the cost of PV products by 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per watt, necessitating a price adjustment to maintain reasonable profit margins [3] - The policy change is anticipated to directly impact the pricing structure, order composition, and profit models of companies in the industry [3] Market Reaction - A three-month transition period has been established, leading to expectations of a surge in PV product exports before the new policy takes effect, with some companies accelerating production and signing contracts to mitigate cost pressures [4] - Research institutions predict a potential doubling of battery module exports in the first quarter of 2026 as companies rush to capitalize on the policy window [4][5] Industry Dynamics - The current trend shows a divergence between the export volume and export value of PV products, with significant growth in volume but a 13.2% decline in total export value to $24.42 billion in the first ten months of 2025 [5] - The policy aims to guide the industry away from low-price competition and towards high-quality development, addressing the issues of price erosion and international trade friction [6][7] Long-term Implications - The adjustment is seen as a means to encourage the PV industry to move beyond low-cost competition and to promote higher quality and sustainable growth [7][8] - The cancellation of export rebates is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, benefiting companies with premium capabilities while pressuring low-margin firms to exit the market [8]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export VAT rebates for photovoltaic and lithium battery products starting April 1, 2026, significantly increasing export costs and putting pressure on profits, with companies expected to rush to declare exports before the deadline [1] - China's photovoltaic industry holds 80%-90% of global capacity and has been the world's largest in production and installation for over a decade, but faces structural contradictions due to excessive capital inflow and a large number of small enterprises, leading to disordered capacity expansion [1] - The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy is seen as a targeted measure to reduce reliance on subsidies, encouraging technological innovation and shifting the industry from low-price competition to value competition [2] Group 2 - The policy is expected to benefit leading companies by promoting industry concentration and eliminating low-price competition, with companies that have strong technology and cost control likely to gain in the medium to long term [3] - Some companies are signaling a cautious approach, with Tianqi Materials planning to suspend production of a lithium hexafluorophosphate line and adjust investment projects, indicating a shift from large-scale expansion [3] - The introduction of the export tax rebate policy is anticipated to intensify the competition between upstream and downstream sectors, potentially driving up material prices, as most major materials have shown significant price increases since December [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to increase export costs in the short term, causing price disturbances. However, in the long run, it aims to shift the photovoltaic industry from a quantity-driven model to a quality-driven one, promoting a more sustainable and higher-value development path for the industry [2][3]. Policy Adjustment - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for certain products, including photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026. This marks the second significant adjustment to the export tax rebate policy within a year, drawing considerable attention from the industry [3][5]. - The products affected primarily include monocrystalline silicon wafers with a diameter greater than 15.24 cm, unassembled solar cells, and photovoltaic modules, which are commonly traded in the market [5]. Market Response - The cancellation of approximately 9% export tax rebate is projected to increase the cost of photovoltaic products by 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per watt. To maintain reasonable profit levels, export prices would need to rise above 0.8 yuan per watt, impacting the pricing structure and profitability of companies [6]. - A transition period of about three months has been set, leading to expectations of a surge in exports before the new policy takes effect. Analysts predict a potential doubling of battery component exports in the first quarter of 2026 as companies rush to fulfill orders [8][9]. Industry Dynamics - The adjustment is seen as a response to the ongoing trend of increasing export volumes but decreasing prices, with the total export value of photovoltaic products declining by 13.2% year-on-year despite volume growth [9]. - The policy aims to guide the industry away from low-price competition and homogenization, pushing for a transition to high-quality development. This is crucial as the industry faces intense competition and declining prices in international markets [11]. Long-term Implications - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, benefiting leading companies with pricing power while forcing low-margin firms reliant on subsidies to exit the market [12]. - The industry is encouraged to focus on technological innovation, product differentiation, and brand value rather than competing solely on price, which could lead to more sustainable growth and reduced trade friction [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the adjustment of export tax rebate policies will promote the transformation of related industries towards high-quality development in the long term [1] - The company, Huaitian New Materials, believes it can further consolidate its market position during the industry adjustment period due to its technological advantages, product quality, and customer base [1] - The company plans to actively respond to the challenges and opportunities brought by policy changes through continuous technological innovation, product upgrades, and customer service [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak oscillation. For the 2604 contract, consider rolling short - selling, and for the 2610 contract, hold short positions as appropriate [1][4][9] - Although there is marginal positive news about the rush - export of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the European Line during the off - season from March to April [9] Summary by Directory Overview - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. For the 2604 contract, consider rolling short - selling, and for the 2610 contract, hold short positions as appropriate [4] - In January and February, the sailings of the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January were generally delayed. After adjustment, the capacity statistics for the 5th week (January 26 - February 1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics for February (February 2 - March 1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. Considering the sailings from January 26 to March 1 as a whole, the capacity remained unchanged. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending. The weekly average capacity was revised up from 284,000 TEU/week last week to 295,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. The Spring Festival blank sailings are mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March [4] Supply - By reviewing the capacity distribution in the 5 weeks before and after the Spring Festival from 2024 to 2026, it is found that the post - festival capacity growth rate is significantly higher than that before and during the festival, indicating greater post - festival capacity pressure. In 2026, the average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival were 306,000, 234,000, and 322,000 TEU respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% [5] - The unstable situation in Iran has risen, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East may recur. Maersk plans to structurally resume the operation of the MECL route connecting the US East Coast and India/Middle East at the end of January and has formulated contingency plans. There is still a possibility that shipping companies will selectively resume sailing in the Red Sea after the Chinese Spring Festival until the second quarter [5] Demand - Due to the adjustment of the export VAT rebate policy, the rush - export of photovoltaic components may lead to a transfer of 20,000 - 50,000 TEU of transportation demand on the European Line from Q2 to Q1, and a total of 40,000 - 70,000 TEU of transportation demand on the Europe - Mediterranean route may be advanced. The concentrated rush - export may occur from the end of February to March [7] - The probability of a full - load situation at the end of February and the shipping companies announcing a General Rate Increase (GRI) on March 1 is relatively low. The rush - export of photovoltaic products is difficult to change the pattern of over - capacity at the monthly level, and the probability of continuous full - load is almost zero. The advance of some Q2 transportation demand to Q1 is negative for the transportation demand after April [7] Valuation - The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2,600/FEU. For the 2602 contract, assuming that the market center drops by a total of $700/FEU in the 5th and 6th weeks, considering the impact of sailing delays and cargo rejection, the valuation of the 2602 contract may be around 1,700 points, and it is expected to fluctuate with a narrow reduction in positions in the future [8] Viewpoints - For the 2604 contract, although there is marginal positive news about the rush - export of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the European Line during the off - season from March to April. In the next 1 - 2 months, consider rolling short - selling the 2604 contract, with the upper resistance level referring to the range of 1,200 - 1,250 points [9] - For the 2610 contract, last week's morning report suggested paying attention to the opportunity to establish short - position bottom positions, with the upper resistance level referring to the settlement price of 1,161 points for the 2510 contract. Affected by Maersk's MECL route resumption announcement, the expectation of resumption has increased, but the progress of the Gaza peace negotiation and the geopolitical situation in Iran still need to be monitored. Hold short positions as appropriate [9] - Strategy: For single - side trading, roll short - sell the 2604 contract and hold short positions of the 2610 contract as appropriate; for arbitrage, there is currently no opportunity [9] Revision Rules of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract - According to the announcement of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, the contract months are adjusted from "February, April, June, August, October, December" to "the nearest 1 - 6 consecutive months (excluding February) and the following two quarterly months", and the minimum price change is adjusted from "0.1 point" to "0.5 point" [20] - The adjustment of contract months will be implemented from February 10, 2026 (Tuesday), with the addition of EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 contracts. Considering the switch of the main contract, EC2603 will not be added. On March 31, 2026 (Tuesday), EC2703 will be added, and the back - end months will be adjusted according to the contract regulations [20] - The impact on the futures market: The derived arbitrage trading may be more diverse. In addition to the conventional arbitrage opportunities between bi - monthly contracts, pay attention to potential positive arbitrage opportunities such as 8 - 9 and 9 - 10 [20] Price - The SCFIS index on January 19 mainly reflects the prices of sailings departing in the 3rd week. It is expected that the SCFIS index on the 19th will be flat or lower than that on the 12th, with a subjective prediction in the range of 1,850 - 1,950 points [28] - The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2,600/FEU. The prices of major shipping companies show a downward trend [29][32] Demand Side - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, in 2025, the container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) showed certain changes compared with previous years. The trade volume in some months increased year - on - year, while in others it decreased [43] - From the perspective of Asia's exports to North America, in 2025, the container trade volume between Asia and North America also showed different trends in each month compared with previous years, with some months showing growth and others showing decline [45] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - There are geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as Iran's warning and Houthi armed forces' threats. Maersk plans to resume the MECL route at the end of January, and diplomatic efforts to resolve the Gaza conflict are ongoing [50] European Line Sailing Schedule - In January and February, the sailings of the AEU7 and FE4 routes were delayed. The capacity statistics were adjusted accordingly, with an increase of 2 blank sailings in the 5th week and a decrease of 2 blank sailings in February. In March, there were 8 blank sailings and 1 pending, and the weekly average capacity increased [52] Capacity Comparison - By comparing the capacity before and after the Spring Festival from 2024 to 2026, it is found that the supply pressure in the 3 - 5 weeks after the Spring Festival may be greater than that before the Spring Festival [55] Turnover Efficiency - Information on the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, and the congestion situation in various regions and ports is provided, which helps to understand the turnover efficiency of the shipping market [67][71][73] Static Capacity - Information on the delivery of new container ships of the top ten shipping companies in the past and future is provided, including the delivery of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships [85][88]