Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing dual challenges of declining asset-side returns and rigid liability-side costs, prompting a fundamental transformation in operational logic as it enters a new cycle of predetermined interest rate adjustments to 2.0% by 2025 [3][22]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Transformations - The insurance industry is undergoing a structural transformation due to the continuous decline in asset-side returns and the inflexible nature of liability-side costs, which is not merely a cyclical issue but a systemic challenge [3][22]. - The transition path involves reducing liability-side costs and enhancing investment-side returns, moving away from high-interest customer acquisition models towards floating yield products like dividend insurance [3][22]. - The "reporting and operation integration" policy and strict inspections are reshaping the channel ecosystem, pushing the sales model towards value orientation and leading the market into a new phase of high-quality development [3][22]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - As the capital market recovers, insurance capital's enthusiasm for equity investments has significantly increased, with a total investment in stocks and securities funds reaching 5.59 trillion yuan, accounting for over 14% of total fund utilization, marking a historical high [4][23]. - Experts suggest increasing equity allocation to enhance long-term returns, as domestic long-term capital allocation in equity has traditionally been low compared to international standards [4][23]. - The insurance industry is shifting towards a "low guarantee + high floating" product design, with dividend insurance and investment-linked insurance expected to gain significant market share [12][30]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Asset-Liability Management - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has emphasized the importance of enhancing asset-liability management capabilities within the insurance industry, which is crucial for the health of the industry and company operations [5][24]. - A new draft regulation on asset-liability management is set to be implemented by December 2025, aiming to strengthen regulatory oversight and improve the overall risk management capabilities of insurance companies [6][38]. - The insurance industry is expected to maintain a stable predetermined interest rate of 2.0% in 2026, with a focus on reducing short-term yield speculation and returning to the essence of risk protection [35][39]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Dynamics - The continuous decline in the predetermined interest rate research value reflects the dual pressures of the market interest rate environment and the insurance industry's asset-liability management [7][26]. - The insurance market is witnessing a significant shift towards dividend insurance, which now accounts for over one-third of the market share, indicating a profound restructuring of the industry's underlying logic [31][32]. - The long-term asset duration gap remains a challenge, with the average liability duration for life insurance at 16.3 years, necessitating a focus on overseas asset allocation to bridge this gap [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance sector [1]. Core Insights - The report discusses the evolution of participating insurance in China, highlighting its significance in a low-interest-rate environment and the shift towards floating yield products, which are gaining traction among domestic investors [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. What is Participating Insurance? - Participating insurance is a type of insurance that combines protection and investment, allowing policyholders to share in the insurer's surplus [12]. - The operational mechanism involves sharing profits derived from better-than-expected performance, with a minimum of 70% of the surplus distributed to policyholders [6][15]. 2. Historical Development of Participating Insurance in Mainland China - The development of participating insurance has seen significant fluctuations influenced by policy and market factors, with its market share peaking at 75% in 2010 before declining due to market reforms [6][45]. - Since 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged the development of floating yield products, marking a consensus in the industry towards transitioning to participating insurance [6][45]. 3. Current Transition of Participating Insurance - The report anticipates that the proportion of participating insurance will continue to rise, with over 50% of new policies in the first half of 2025 being participating insurance [6][45]. - The transition is expected to alleviate pressure from interest rate losses and enhance the reliability of the insurance sector's embedded value (EV) [6][45]. 4. International Experience - In mature markets, floating yield products dominate, with Hong Kong's participating insurance being a core component, accounting for 85% of new premiums in 2024 [2][6]. - The report suggests that the characteristics of participating insurance in Hong Kong, such as multi-currency support and a design of low guarantees with high floating returns, could serve as a model for the mainland market [2][6]. 5. Key Metrics for Evaluating Participating Insurance - The report outlines four key indicators for assessing the performance of participating insurance: 1. **Guaranteed Rate**: Currently set at 1.75%, which is lower than traditional insurance [23]. 2. **Demonstration Rate**: Reflects expected returns, with current rates around 3.5% to 4% [24]. 3. **Actual Yield**: The industry average is capped at 3.2%, with some companies exceeding this limit [27]. 4. **Dividend Realization Rate**: Increased by 11 percentage points to 62% in 2024, indicating improved management and expectation guidance [29].

Core Insights - In Q3 2025, among 73 disclosed solvency reports from life insurance companies, 72 companies were rated, with 31 classified as A, 40 as B, and one, Huahui Life, rated C due to governance issues [1][34] - The solvency data verification mechanism indicates that companies with a core solvency ratio below 60% or a comprehensive solvency ratio below 120% will be closely monitored, with two companies falling below these thresholds in Q3 2025 [1][36] - Overall, 18 companies saw a year-on-year increase in comprehensive solvency, accounting for 25%, while 55 companies experienced a decline, representing 75% [1][22] Solvency Ratings - Among the 72 companies with disclosed risk ratings, 71 met the standards, with 31 in the A category (43%) and 40 in the B category (56%), while one company was rated C (1%) [4][36] - Huahui Life, despite having the highest core (1898.92%) and comprehensive solvency ratios (1909.25%), was rated C due to unresolved governance issues [3][36] Industry Trends - The life insurance industry faced downward pressure in solvency ratios, with both core and comprehensive solvency ratios declining in Q3 2025 [7][31] - The average core solvency ratio decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 118.9%, while the comprehensive solvency ratio fell by 13.4 percentage points to 175.5% compared to the previous year [9][11] - The maximum core solvency ratio dropped significantly by 348.63 percentage points, indicating a narrowing gap among companies [10][12] Company Performance - In Q3 2025, 21 companies (29%) reported an increase in core solvency, while 52 companies (71%) saw a decline, with the most significant drop being from Changsheng Life [12][19] - The top 10 companies in core solvency included Huahui Life, which, despite a decline, maintained the highest ratio, followed by several pension insurance companies [17][28] - Conversely, the bottom 10 companies saw declines, with Changsheng Life experiencing the largest drop of 61.1 percentage points [20][30] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to focus on optimizing asset allocation and transforming high-value business models to address ongoing challenges [31][32]

Core Insights - Longevity is a significant indicator of social progress and development, but managing and diversifying longevity risks presents new challenges for society [1] - Longevity risk refers to the financial pressure arising from individuals or groups living longer than expected, impacting pension and insurance obligations [1] - The commercial annuity insurance market, a tool for hedging longevity risk, faces substantial challenges due to the accelerating aging trend and interest rate changes [1][2] Group 1: Longevity Risk Overview - As of the end of 2024, the elderly population aged 60 and above in China is projected to reach 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population [1] - The dependency ratio for the population aged 65 and above is 22.8%, indicating a growing financial burden on the working-age population [1] - The insurance industry is urged to adopt a multi-faceted approach to address longevity risk, including precise pricing and risk management [2] Group 2: International Practices and Innovations - In the UK, pension plans hold over £3 trillion in assets and are exploring de-risking solutions, with the market for risk transfer transactions expected to reach £70 billion by 2025 [3] - The concept of longevity risk swaps, where direct insurers transfer longevity risk to reinsurers, has been practiced in Europe since the mid-2000s [3] - Hong Kong's insurance industry is developing Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) to transfer low-frequency, high-loss risks to the capital market [4][5] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations for China - China faces challenges in implementing longevity risk transfer tools, including data availability, regulatory environment, and market maturity [7] - Recommendations include establishing a mortality index, conducting pilot programs under regulatory sandboxes, starting with simpler products, and fostering a supportive market ecosystem [7] - The development of a mortality improvement rate prediction model tailored to China's data characteristics is underway, which is crucial for managing longevity risk [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with pre-recorded premiums exceeding expectations, primarily benefiting from declining bank deposit rates and increased competitiveness of participating insurance products. The proportion of premiums from bancassurance channels is expected to rise, becoming a key growth driver for premiums [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Impact**: The rise in interest rates is favorable for the insurance asset side, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing from 1.6% at the beginning of the year to 1.86%. This alleviates concerns about spread loss risks, although there may be a slight negative impact on financial statements in the short term [1][3][7]. - **Premium Growth**: It is anticipated that new single premiums and new business value will achieve double-digit growth in 2026, with some companies potentially seeing triple-digit growth through bancassurance channels. This growth is driven by improved liability structure, channel expansion, and enhanced investment returns [1][5][6]. - **Bond Allocation Trends**: There is a decreasing willingness to allocate to bonds, with the proportion of bonds in the life insurance sector slightly declining to around 51% by the end of Q3. Companies are shifting from modified duration management to effective duration management, reducing long-term bond allocation pressure [1][8]. - **Equity Investment**: The core equity allocation ratio in the life insurance sector reached 15.5%, the highest level in 11 to 14 years, benefiting from regulatory encouragement for long-term holdings and stock market performance. Despite average performance of dividend stocks, large asset bases allow for diversified investments [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Levels**: The insurance sector remains undervalued, even with ROE reaching 30%-40%. The market has not significantly outperformed the CSI 300 index, indicating potential for growth [2][11][12]. - **Policy Environment**: The regulatory environment has been friendly over the past two years, with no negative policies impacting the industry, fostering a positive outlook for future development [2][13]. - **Performance of China Ping An**: China Ping An has performed well due to its high and stable dividend yield and large free float market capitalization. The active holding ratio of public funds in insurance stocks is low, indicating room for increased investment [1][10]. Conclusion - The insurance industry is poised for growth in 2026, driven by favorable interest rates, improved premium collection channels, and a supportive regulatory environment. The current valuation levels suggest potential upside, particularly for leading companies like China Ping An.

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is facing significant challenges due to a prolonged low interest rate environment, which affects both asset management and liability costs, leading to a structural transformation necessity [1][3]. Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds has dropped to a historical low of 1.7% to 1.9%, indicating a potential long-term downward trend [1]. - The insurance business's nature results in a rigid liability cost structure, particularly with long-term policies locking in predetermined rates, creating a conflict between declining asset yields and fixed liability costs [3]. Group 2: Traditional Investment Strategies - Traditional "fixed income plus" strategies, which previously provided stable spreads, are becoming ineffective in the current low-rate environment [3]. - The supply of high-quality non-standard assets, such as infrastructure debt plans, is rapidly shrinking, leading to an "asset scarcity" phenomenon [4]. Group 3: Need for Structural Change - The industry consensus is that superficial adjustments are insufficient; a comprehensive overhaul of asset-liability management is required [4]. - A return to the core principles of insurance management—safety, profitability, and liquidity—is essential, with a focus on matching yield costs, duration structure, and liquidity [5]. Group 4: Changes in Fixed Income Asset Allocation - China Pacific Insurance has increased its allocation to long-term government bonds from 12.5% to 46.2% over the past eight years [6]. - There is a need for a balanced approach to duration management, as excessively pursuing a zero duration gap could increase asset pressure during market rebounds [6]. Group 5: Alternative and Equity Investments - The insurance asset management sector is increasingly incorporating alternative and equity assets to enhance long-term returns and mitigate inflation impacts [9]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the primary market for new fund raising reached 1.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [10]. Group 6: Global Investment Strategies - Global asset allocation is deemed essential, with a focus on building teams and managing foreign exchange risks effectively [12][13]. - The insurance industry must develop capabilities in foreign exchange risk management to succeed in overseas investments [14].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies aims to enhance their capital management and encourage long-term investments, particularly in the stock market and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][16]. Group 1: Background - The implementation of the second phase of solvency regulations has put pressure on insurance companies' solvency ratios, with the overall solvency adequacy ratio declining since the rules were enacted in 2022 [2][17]. - Despite regulatory optimizations in September 2023, the solvency adequacy ratio remains below levels prior to the second phase implementation [17]. - As of Q3 2025, the stock allocation ratio for the insurance industry reached 10%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous quarter and 2.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2][17]. Group 2: Content of the Notification - The notification includes differentiated adjustments to risk factors based on holding periods for stocks, encouraging long-term investments [4][18]. - For stocks in the CSI 300 index and the CSI Low Volatility 100 index held for over three years, the risk factor is reduced from 0.3 to 0.27 [4][18]. - For stocks listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held for over two years, the risk factor is reduced from 0.4 to 0.36 [4][18]. - The risk factor for export credit insurance and overseas investment insurance premiums is reduced from 0.467 to 0.42, and the reserve risk factor is reduced from 0.605 to 0.545 [4][18]. Group 3: Internal Control and Solvency Management - Insurance companies are required to enhance internal controls and accurately measure stock holding periods to improve long-term investment management capabilities [5][19]. - There is an emphasis on strengthening solvency management to ensure that solvency data is accurate and complete [5][19]. Group 4: Impact - The adjustments are expected to promote long-term investments by insurance capital, alleviating pressure on solvency ratios and enhancing investment flexibility [14][28]. - In a low-interest-rate environment, increasing equity investment ratios can help insurance companies improve investment yield elasticity and mitigate potential interest spread losses [14][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments made by the National Financial Regulatory Administration to the risk factors related to insurance companies' investment activities, aimed at enhancing their solvency and encouraging long-term investments in the stock market [7][9]. Group 1: Event Summary - On December 5, the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to adjust the risk factors for insurance companies' related business, focusing on enhancing the role of insurance funds as patient capital [7]. - The adjustments include lowering the risk factors for stocks held for over three years and two years, specifically for the CSI 300 Index and the STAR Market stocks, to encourage long-term investments [10]. - The risk factors for export credit insurance and overseas investment insurance have also been reduced to support foreign trade enterprises [10]. Group 2: Background and Context - The solvency of insurance companies has been under pressure due to stricter capital recognition requirements and increased risk factors since the implementation of the second phase of the solvency regime [8]. - Despite regulatory optimizations in September 2023, the overall solvency adequacy ratio remains below levels seen before the new rules were implemented [8]. - The proportion of stocks held by insurance companies has increased significantly, with a 1.2 percentage point rise in stock allocation to 10% by the end of Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter [8]. Group 3: Impact Analysis - The adjustments are expected to promote long-term investments by insurance funds, alleviating solvency pressures and enhancing investment flexibility [11]. - The changes are likely to improve the long-term return levels for insurance companies, helping to mitigate risks associated with low interest rates and enhancing market resilience [12]. - By increasing the allocation to high-return, high-dividend stocks, insurance companies can secure more stable income and improve their net investment returns [12].

2025 年 12 月 6 日 行业研究 股票风险因子差异化下调，推动险资进一步发挥耐心资本优势 ——《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》点评 非银行金融 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 长周期考核权重升至 70%，利好险资加大入 市力度——《进一步加强国有商业保险公司 长周期考核的通知》点评（2025-07-12） 保险权益投资空间拓宽，长期资金入市有望 提速——《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监 管比例有关事项的通知》点评（2025-04-09） 进一步明确长周期考核要求，提升中长期资 金入市力度——《关于推动中长期资金入市 工作的实施方案》点评（2025-01-23） 要点 另一方面，政策鼓励下今年以来险资入市力度显著增强，25Q3 末行业（人身险公 司+财产险公司）股票配置比例达 10%，环比+1.2pc ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance capital (险资) has become a focal point in the market this year, driven by policies promoting medium to long-term capital inflows, effectively optimizing the capital market structure and encouraging a shift towards value investing [1][3]. Group 1: Insurance Capital Market Activity - As of the end of Q3 2025, insurance capital appeared among the top ten shareholders of 633 A-share listed companies, with 270 new stock positions taken [3]. - The total market value of insurance capital holdings in A-shares exceeded 650 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 6% compared to mid-2025 [3]. - The insurance sector's investment strategy is characterized by a focus on long-term stability and value, aligning with the overall market recovery trend [5]. Group 2: Investment Performance and Preferences - In Q3 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.73%, with insurance companies' investment results significantly contributing to their net profit growth [4]. - Insurance capital's holdings in the top five industries by market value include banking, public utilities, transportation, communications, and electrical equipment [5]. - The top five industries by the number of individual stocks held by insurance capital are electronics, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, machinery, and automobiles [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Tools - Insurance capital's investment strategy is primarily driven by liability-driven investment (LDI), focusing on matching assets with liabilities [6]. - The strategy includes a foundation of high-rated bonds (60%-70% of the portfolio) for stable returns, with equity investments typically comprising 10%-15% [6]. - The insurance version of asset-backed securities (ABS) has emerged as a key tool for insurance capital to navigate low interest rates and market volatility, providing a stable return and extending asset duration [7][9]. Group 4: Growth of Insurance Version ABS - In the first three quarters of 2025, the number of registered insurance asset-backed plans reached 66, with a total scale of 274.58 billion yuan, marking a 25.1% increase year-on-year [8]. - The insurance version of ABS serves as a "stabilizer" for returns and an "extender" for assets, typically offering a higher issuance rate of 5%-6% compared to similar credit bonds [8][9]. - The unique structured design of insurance version ABS allows for risk and return layering, catering to the needs of insurance capital for stable and secure investments [9][10].