今日周五(12月12日)亚盘时段，白银td目前交投于14602一线上方，今日开盘于14482元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报14776元/千克，上涨2.10%，最高触及15010元/千克，最低下探14464元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 降息后，美元指数一度跌至98.13的近两个月低点，兑欧元、瑞郎和英镑均创下数月低位。这主要源于 美联储预测不如部分投资者预期的鹰派，与澳洲联储和欧洲央行官员的加息信号形成鲜明对比。 【最新白银td行情解析】 瑞银外汇策略师Vassili Serebriakov分析称，美国以外国家的利率预期正转向鹰派，这凸显了美联储的相 对鸽派立场，进一步拖累美元。 日图来看，已连续两日收阳，白银td开盘持续走涨，到达高点后小幅回落，价格处于正值区间，目前有 望再度拉升，布林带开口扩大显示上涨空间充足，但DMI表示仍有回调压力，另外RSI处于高位，短期 仍然看涨为主，白银td走势下方关注14000-14400支撑；上方关注15000-15500阻力。 美元走软的环境下，吸引了更多投资者转向"无息资产"，从而巩固了白银上涨势头。 【要闻速递】 印度养老金监管机构周三允许养 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The current gold price remains above 4200, but there is a noticeable divergence in market sentiment, indicating cautious short-term trading behavior [1][4]. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - Global stock market sentiment is generally positive, leading to a temporary decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, which suppresses its upward movement [1][4]. - The market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of key economic data releases, resulting in a stagnant trading range for gold above 4200 [1][4]. - Multiple macroeconomic factors are influencing gold's current consolidation phase, reflecting market participants' ongoing digestion of future expectations [1][4]. Interest Rate Expectations - There is a growing market expectation for a rate cut next week, with nearly 90% probability for a 25 basis point reduction, which keeps the dollar weak and supports non-yielding assets like gold [1][4]. - Recent economic data indicates signs of slowing growth, and a dovish stance from Federal Reserve officials reinforces expectations for monetary easing [1][4]. - Potential candidates for high-level positions are perceived to favor a more accommodative policy approach, further deepening market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [1][4]. Global Risk Factors - Uncertainty in global risk has not dissipated, with several regional events causing fluctuations in risk appetite, although these events do not directly alter the global economic trajectory [2][5]. - Ongoing negotiations and communications have not yielded substantial progress, increasing investor sensitivity to potential risks [2][5]. - The interplay of macro expectations, market sentiment, and uncertainty contributes to gold's current "limited downside, limited upside" trading pattern [2][5]. Technical Analysis - Significant buying support was observed in the 4155 to 4150 range, indicating it remains a core defense line for bulls [2][5]. - If gold cannot establish itself above the strong resistance zone of 4245 to 4250, the upward trend may remain unconfirmed [2][5]. - A breakthrough in this resistance zone could lead gold to gradually approach resistance levels of 4264 to 4265 and 4277 to 4278, with a potential attempt to reach the 4300 mark [2][5]. Support Levels - If gold falls below 4200, there is a high probability that bulls will continue to support it, especially at the critical pivot point of 4150 [3][6]. - A significant breach of this support could see gold retreat to 4100 and further test the support range of 4075 to 4073, which is reinforced by technical indicators [3][6]. - This support area is considered the most robust technical support at this stage, and its stability is crucial for maintaining a bullish outlook on gold [3][6]. Conclusion - Gold is currently navigating a complex framework influenced by interest rate expectations, market sentiment, global uncertainties, and technical structures [3][6]. - The market's attitude towards the 4200 to 4150 range will be pivotal in determining the overall direction, with upcoming PCE data expected to provide a definitive signal for future movements [3][6].

12月2日，近期金银市场的走势继续吸引全球资金关注。市场进入新一周与新一个月的首个交易日之 际，黄金价格再度创出六周高点，白银更是连续冲击并刷新历史纪录。GTC泽汇资本观察到，在宏观情 绪偏向谨慎、投资者寻求更高安全性的背景下，避险资金持续向贵金属流入，为价格提供了扎实的基本 面支撑。此外，随着短期技术形态不断改善，趋势型买盘进一步推动金银价格加速上行，使得贵金属成 为本阶段表现最为亮眼的资产类别之一。 全球股市隔夜普遍偏弱，美国主要指数在午盘仍呈现承压格局，虽较盘中低点有所回升，但整体情绪仍 然偏谨慎。市场对日本债市的担忧不断发酵，使全球投资者在周初重新评估风险，并促使部分资金减仓 权益资产，转向更具防御属性的资产配置。GTC泽汇资本表示，在全球宏观政策尚未出现明显统一方向 的阶段，任何来自主权债市的异动都容易对风险偏好造成额外冲击，而贵金属则在此类场景下持续受 益。 与此同时，有关美联储主席人选的讨论，为贵金属行情提供了另一层支撑。市场预期若新任主席的政策 立场更偏向宽松，将有助于降低未来利率路径的不确定性，并可能推动更早或更明确的降息预期。美元 指数的回落、原油价格维持在接近每桶59美元的水平、以及10 ...

12月2日，近期市场对美联储降息押注的迅速升温正提振黄金表现。贵金属机构 Heraeus 的分析显示， 尽管经济数据呈现分化，但市场对12月降息的预期已大幅抬升。OEXN 表示，利率预期的反复变化正 在重新塑造贵金属的风险偏好结构，并明显支撑避险资产价格的上行。 分析指出，就业、通胀及其他指标尚未出现明显恶化，并不足以单独促成降息，但消费者信心在11月出 现显著下滑，这成为市场重新定价的重要因素。两周前，市场对美联储12月降息的预测仅为30%，而上 周受多位官员谈及降息可能的影响，这一概率迅速跳升至80%以上。美联储政策利率上限与两年期美债 收益率之间仍有约50个基点的空间，虽不及10月时的75个基点，但仍为市场提供了想象空间。在此背景 下，金价上周突破每盎司 4200 美元这一此前的技术阻力位。OEXN 认为，利率预期的边际变化仍是黄 金趋势的核心驱动。 周一，黄金继续维持上周末的强势，在高位区间稳定运行。现货黄金最新报每盎司 4，231.93 美元，当 日上涨 0.38%。 银市方面，Heraeus 指出实物白银的紧张状况正进一步加剧，库存降至多年低位，投资需求则持续推高 价格。OEXN 表示，这种投资端 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia reported a remarkable revenue growth of 62% year-on-year, with data center revenue reaching $51.2 billion, a 66% increase, and a gross margin of 73% [1][3] - Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock price fell by 3% on the day of the announcement, leading to a market capitalization loss of approximately 1 trillion yuan [1] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.56% following Nvidia's report, indicating a broader market reaction [1] Group 2 - A delayed non-farm payroll report showed that the U.S. added 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, creating mixed signals for the market [3][4] - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December dropped below 40%, impacting high-valuation tech stocks negatively [4] - Goldman Sachs highlighted that the liquidity in the S&P 500's top buy-sell orders had decreased significantly, leading to increased volatility in the market [6] Group 3 - Risk aversion spread across asset classes, with Bitcoin dropping below the psychological level of $90,000, indicating a broader sell-off in risk assets [7][8] - Defensive stocks like Walmart saw a rise in share price, suggesting a rotation of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive assets [8] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose against the backdrop of U.S. market declines, with Alibaba and Tencent reporting better-than-expected earnings [10] Group 4 - The A-share market showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking above 3,800 points, marking a nearly ten-year high [10] - Regulatory measures have tightened IPO approvals, leading to a decrease in the number of IPOs and a shift towards high-tech and strategic emerging industries [13] - Foreign investment interest in Chinese assets is increasing, with potential inflows estimated to exceed 10 trillion yuan [13][14]

FXGT观察到，近期市场对美联储未来领导人选的关注显著升温，Kevin Hassett被视为总统优先考虑的人选，这一动向对全球利率预期和金融市场波动产生 直接影响。Hassett被认为倾向于加速降息，这对外汇和衍生品市场而言具有重要意义。 Hassett作为现任国家经济委员会主任，与总统有密切联系，其政策取向被普遍认为会推动更快的利率下调。对于交易者而言，这意味着美元可能面临一定贬 值压力，而高收益货币和新兴市场资产可能获得支撑。FXGT表示，金融市场已经开始对这一可能性作出反应，美国国债收益率10年期已跌破4%，反映投资 者对降息预期的提前布局。 70 t 10 7 Hall 16 No- i 201 t -100 0 Proper 11867 t will be No -1 3 1 - 1 - Election the States of 2 - 1 read the loss 1472 re street All Property charge SONS 12 42 all es will ri r 2 2 16 the 12 11 a Property d free city of Castle 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's impressive earnings report did not lead to the expected market rally, instead resulting in a significant market downturn, highlighting the sensitivity of high-valuation stocks to interest rate expectations [1][5][11]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported Q3 2026 fiscal year revenue of $57 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 22% [2]. - The data center business generated $51.2 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 66% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 25% [2]. - The GAAP gross margin was around 73%, indicating strong profitability [2]. - Nvidia's management provided a Q4 revenue guidance of approximately $65 billion, significantly above market expectations [2]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, futures and after-hours stock prices rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq initially showing strong gains [3]. - However, the market reversed course within half a day, leading to a decline in major indices and Nvidia's stock price [4][5]. Economic Indicators - The release of the delayed September U.S. non-farm payroll report showed mixed results, with job additions of approximately 119,000, exceeding expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% [6][7]. - This data suggested a robust economy, which tempered expectations for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7]. Technical Factors - A significant amount of options expired, triggering mechanical selling pressure in the market [9]. - The market experienced a broader risk reduction and deleveraging, affecting not only U.S. stocks but also cryptocurrencies [10]. Investment Insights - The day’s events indicated a re-evaluation of valuations and positions rather than a fundamental decline in the AI sector [11]. - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach to AI investments, diversifying across various assets rather than concentrating on a single stock [14].

Group 1 - Gold prices have shown a moderate upward trend, with support around $4110, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid a lack of key economic indicators due to the delay in the U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes indicate a hawkish tone, with most officials not supporting further easing in December, leading to a reduction in rate cut expectations from approximately 42% to around 30% [1][2] - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty in the labor market, making the upcoming non-farm payroll data crucial for reassessing December's policy direction [1][2] Group 2 - The euro has experienced a notable decline, with a daily drop of nearly 0.5%, primarily due to the FOMC minutes suggesting limited support for rate cuts, which has shifted market risk towards the dollar [2] - The probability of a rate cut has decreased to about 33%, while the dollar index has surpassed the 100 mark, limiting the euro's rebound potential [2] - Despite some officials believing in the possibility of easing in December, the majority prefer to maintain the current pace, reflecting a cautious hawkish stance that has led to a reassessment of rate cut paths [2][4] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key variable influencing market direction, with volatility likely to remain high until the data is released [4] - If the non-farm data is weak, expectations for rate cuts may rise, benefiting gold prices; conversely, strong data could lead to short-term adjustments in gold prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, a well-known short-seller, has announced the closure of his fund, Scion Asset Management, raising questions about his market outlook and signaling potential concerns about the current state of the AI and tech stock market bubble [1][8]. Group 1: Michael Burry's Actions - Burry has been betting against U.S. tech stocks, particularly those involved in AI, believing that the market is experiencing an unsustainable bubble similar to the 2000 internet bubble [6][10]. - The closure of his fund means he will no longer be required to publicly disclose his holdings, allowing him to operate privately [9]. - Burry's past experiences during the 2008 financial crisis, where he faced significant pressure and skepticism from investors, may have influenced his decision to exit the market quietly this time [9][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market has recently faced significant declines, with major indices experiencing their worst performance since October 10, 2023, driven by a sell-off in tech stocks [10][12]. - Valuation data indicates that major U.S. indices are at high levels, with the Nasdaq index showing a year-to-date increase of 18.43% and a PE ratio of 41.04, placing it in the 65.43 percentile [14]. - The market is currently under pressure from dual factors: liquidity shortages and unstable interest rate expectations, which have contributed to the recent downturn [20][21]. Group 3: Liquidity and Interest Rate Expectations - A liquidity shortage has worsened due to a 44-day government shutdown, freezing funds that would typically enter the market, while increased U.S. debt issuance has further drained cash from the system [17]. - Recent shifts in interest rate expectations have also impacted the market, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut dropping significantly due to internal disagreements among Fed officials [18][19]. - The combination of liquidity issues and fluctuating interest rate expectations has created a challenging environment for tech stocks, leading to increased volatility and investor caution [20][21].