1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year-on-year. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.0777%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points from the previous week. The overall demand is below the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. In terms of demand, the current demand is below the historical average. In terms of cost, the daily processing profit of asphalt increased by 30.70% compared with the previous period, the loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3280 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory and factory inventory continued to be destocked, while port inventory continued to accumulate, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [17]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [23]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [26]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the price ratio trend of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [30]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [39]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [51]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the asphalt production of refineries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly utilization rate of asphalt production capacity, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [59]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the situation of exchange warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [69]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [72]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the import spread trend of Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the production of petroleum coke, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [81]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [84]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [88]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Utilization Rate**: The report shows the utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [93]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate by Purpose**: The report shows the utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [96]. - **Downstream Utilization Situation**: The report shows the utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103].

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil. After the holiday, the shipment volume increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. - The supply of asphalt increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises reaching 35.8% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [4]. - The demand showed a month - on - month increase. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [4]. - The spot price of asphalt continued to decline under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt this period was 3,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate slightly increased due to the rotation to produce residue oil and shutdown for maintenance at some refineries, and the intermittent production at some main refineries in East China and Jiangsu Xinhai [4]. - Demand: The shipment volume increased month - on - month. Both factory and social inventories showed a destocking trend. The actual trading atmosphere was average in East China, and low - priced resources in social inventories were given priority [4]. - Valuation: The spot price of asphalt continued to decline, with the price range widening. All 7 regional prices decreased, with the largest decline of 4.2% in North China [4]. - Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading were provided [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: The disk price and trading volume of asphalt futures are presented, along with the comparison of Brent, WTI, and SC prices [11]. - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, as well as the price differences between regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread: The basis and inter - month spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, etc. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.9% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [20][24]. - Supply: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) week - on - week and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) year - on - year. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses decreased by 2.1% [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, but refineries have recently reduced production to alleviate supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and the weakening of crude oil prices will lead to a short - term weakening of cost support. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise output was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries have reduced production, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the开工 rate of construction asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. All are below the historical average levels, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; inventory is neutral with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing; the disk is bearish as the MA20 is downward and the 11 - contract futures price is below the MA20; the main position is bullish as the main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 57 yuan to 3248 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.72%. In terms of inventory, social inventory decreased by 1.31% to 1058,000 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is important for spread trading strategies [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the price dynamics in the spot market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for refineries to make production decisions [38][39][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the supply situation in the market [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [46][47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the production activity level [56][57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the delivery and storage of futures contracts [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025, which reflects the overall inventory situation in the market [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industries [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which helps to analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate, asphalt 开工 rate by use, and downstream 开工 situation (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt 开工 rate, road - modified asphalt 开工 rate, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt 开工 rate) from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production activity level of the asphalt industry [93][94][96][97][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 - September 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward trend of asphalt valuation in the second half of the year is likely. The current independent refinery operation rate is at a low level, with limited room for further decline. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will restrict the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak oscillation of the cost - side crude oil will also limit the upward space of the unilateral price of asphalt [16]. - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is small, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the recent trend of the asphalt main contract, showing the price changes from January to October 2025, and analyzes the impact of supply - demand and cost factors on the price [13][14]. - **Mid - term Impact Factor Assessment** - **Supply**: Import is expected to remain low. Major refineries are expected to resume some operations, restricting the upward movement of asphalt valuation. However, the significant recovery of local refineries is needed for the valuation to decline, and local refineries are expected to remain relatively sluggish in the short and medium term [16]. - **Demand**: The demand - side operation rate has improved slightly compared to previous years, but the overall asphalt shipment volume is lower than expected. The infrastructure peak season has passed, and the overall demand is expected to be flat [16]. - **Cost**: The upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the gradual increase in production by OPEC, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Shale oil will play a bottom - supporting role, and there is no continuous trend market [16]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment** - **Supply**: The production rate of heavy - traffic asphalt has started to decline, and imports are expected to remain low due to geopolitical factors [17]. - **Demand**: The operation rates of all demand - side segments are weak, especially the waterproofing membrane sector [17]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory shows difficulty in destocking, and the social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation, with the total domestic inventory accumulating more than expected [17]. - **Cost**: The crude oil cost is expected to stop falling and stabilize, as the current oil price has entered the break - even price range of some U.S. shale oil production areas [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt profit and crude oil price [41][44][47]. - **Import**: It includes the import volume, import profit, and cumulative import volume from different countries of asphalt, as well as the import volume of diluted asphalt [49][50][56]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It presents the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [59]. - **Refinery Profit**: It shows the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke [62][65]. 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [70]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the asphalt warehouse receipt volume and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [73]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It analyzes the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [77]. 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [81][83][87]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: It presents the operation rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membranes, etc. [92][93][95]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [97][100][107]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volumes of road rollers and excavators [108]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the fixed - asset investment completion rate and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [114]. 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [122][123][125]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It briefly describes the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [130]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: It classifies asphalt from production process and usage perspectives, indicating that straight - run asphalt has the largest production share and is mainly used for road construction, and asphalt is mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [133].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, crude oil prices are rising, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3445 - 3487 [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint - **Supply side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 312600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The sample enterprise output was 701000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 601000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand side**: The construction start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of road - modified asphalt was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of waterproofing membranes was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and it is expected that cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 34 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. Factory inventory was 658000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 15000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5%. Social inventory continued to decline, factory inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main positions**: The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and other data of various asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on inventory, production, start - up rate, etc. For example, the price of the 01 - contract increased by 0.18% compared with the previous value; the weekly start - up rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 41.64% compared with the previous value [14]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17]. 4. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - contract spread**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [19][20]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [22][23]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among these products [29][31]. 5. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [32][33]. 6. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [34][35]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [41][42]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply of asphalt [46][47]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **Start - up rate**: It shows the historical weekly start - up rate trends of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the asphalt industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: It shows the historical estimated trends of asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is important for understanding the overall inventory situation [61][62][63]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory structure [65][66]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [68][69]. - **Import - export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [71][72]. - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [74][75][76]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for petroleum - related products [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction**: It shows the historical investment trends in highway construction from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [83][84]. - **New local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt start - up rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93]. - **Asphalt start - up rate by use**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [95][96]. - **Downstream start - up situation**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproof - membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in different downstream applications [98][99][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of asphalt from January 2024 - September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand relationship [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. Demand recovery is underwhelming, with current demand below historical average levels. The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 312,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, and the output was 701,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, and the loss of asphalt processing has decreased [7]. - **Basis**: On September 26th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 50 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%; factory inventory was 658,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.50%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing [7]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is long, changing from short to long [7]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has increased, raising supply pressure. The overall demand is lower than expected despite the stimulation of the peak season. The inventory remains stable, and the strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3429 - 3471 [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, and production data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, and production volume changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.07% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 3.58% [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [16][17]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts [19][20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil through charts [22][23]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the cracking spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 through charts [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts [29][30][31]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [32][33]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [34][35]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [46][47]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production volume trend of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [53][54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the historical capacity utilization rate trend of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 through a chart [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts [61][62][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 through charts [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trend of the factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 through a chart [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - The report shows the historical export and import volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [71][72]. - The report shows the historical price difference trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 through a chart [74][75][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production volume trend of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts [83][84][85]. - The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 through charts [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - The report shows the historical operating rate trend of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [92][93]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart [95][96]. - The report shows the historical operating rate trends of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts [98][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still high, while the demand - side recovery is weak. High - price goods have insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The profit of asphalt processing losses has decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. The current demand is below the historical average, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. It is predicted that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7][9][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise shipments were 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7] - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [7] - **Basis**: On September 25th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [7] - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. The social, in - factory, and port inventories are all continuously decreasing [7] - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production to relieve supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, production changes, and profit changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.76% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [14] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [19][20] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [22][23] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [25][26][27] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [34][35] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [41][42] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [43][44] - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt [46][47] - **Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of local refineries [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production capacity utilization situation of asphalt [56][57] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the exchange [61][62][63] - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the asphalt market [65][66] - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory management situation of factories [68][69] - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the import and export situation of asphalt [71][72] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of petroleum coke [77][78] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the overall demand situation of asphalt [80][81] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in highway construction [83][84] - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the impact of policies on asphalt demand [85] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in downstream machinery [87][88][90] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt for different uses [95][96] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the capacity utilization situation of downstream industries [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation of asphalt [103][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish, with the cost side supported by strong crude oil, the basis showing a spot premium over futures, and inventories in a continuous destocking mode. However, the disk and the main positions are bearish, with the MA20 moving downward and the main positions being net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3371 - 3413 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high - level cost of crude oil providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend in demand, and the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 313.6 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 699 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries have recently reduced production, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to support the market in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - plant inventory was 653 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking mode [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is moving downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, inventory, and other data of different asphalt contracts (01 - 06 contracts), as well as the data of different types of asphalt such as East China heavy - traffic asphalt and Shandong local refinery asphalt, including the previous value, change, and change rate [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil prices from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which can be used to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and the asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025, which can help understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can be used to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of shipment [43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [45]. - **Output**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation of asphalt [48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and the Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The historical trend of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the supply situation of local refineries [55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help understand the impact of equipment maintenance on asphalt supply [60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [63]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and the in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the overall inventory situation of asphalt [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the inventory management situation of enterprises [70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international trade situation of asphalt [73]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which can help analyze the price difference in asphalt imports [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The historical trend of the petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of the asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which can help understand the overall market demand for asphalt [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trends of the highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of the new local special - purpose bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the impact of policy investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which can help analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which can help understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [97]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical trends of the shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data, which can help comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [105].

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, but demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to limited price increases for the remainder of the year [1] Supply and Demand - Overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while demand has not effectively released due to adverse weather and financial constraints [1] - Inventory structure has improved with stable factory inventories and reduced social inventories, driven by essential and speculative demand [1] Price Dynamics - Asphalt prices in the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest regions have decreased by 10 to 100 yuan per ton, while North China saw a price increase of 10 yuan per ton [1] - The price of asphalt is currently lower in South China due to restrictions from oil quotas and consumption taxes, despite the region being affected by typhoons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see only one more price increase opportunity this year, as the demand peak has not exceeded expectations [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC's continued production increases, leading to lower costs for asphalt [1] - The upcoming autumn construction conditions are anticipated to improve, but frequent rainfall may hinder demand [1] Trading and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt is relatively high compared to crude oil, with a weakening crack spread [1] - Short-term trading strategies may consider long positions after crude oil stabilizes, despite the current market showing signs of adjustment [1]

Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures market is experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 3582.00 yuan and currently trading at 3560.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.42% increase [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the short-term outlook for asphalt, with a consensus on cautious trading strategies [1] Group 1: National Insights - Guosen Futures suggests a short-term trading approach for asphalt, driven by recent price increases from major refineries and a rebound in crude oil prices [2] - Demand remains weak due to high temperatures and regional rainfall affecting construction projects, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude among downstream users and traders [2] - The overall supply of asphalt is stable, but demand has not effectively released due to ongoing funding shortages, resulting in a lackluster performance during the peak season [2] Group 2: Regional Analysis - Nanhua Futures indicates that asphalt prices are primarily following cost fluctuations, with stable supply but weak demand due to adverse weather conditions [2] - The inventory structure shows slow de-stocking in social warehouses, while factory inventories are decreasing slightly, with some speculative demand causing inventory shifts [2] - The upcoming rainy weather in southern regions is expected to further weaken the demand outlook, with the peak season not performing as expected [2] Group 3: Market Trends - Donghai Futures notes that while oil prices are slightly rising, asphalt remains weak, with a small decline in basis [3] - The current inventory levels show limited de-stocking, and profits have slightly recovered with noticeable increases in production [3] - The market is likely to continue in a fluctuating pattern due to the anticipated impact of OPEC+ production increases on crude oil prices [3]