11月14日上午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家统计局相关负责人介绍2025年10月份国民经济 运行情况。 发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍了10月份经济运行出现的亮点和积极变化。今年10月份， 中国生产供给基本平稳，就业总体稳定，物价有所改善，新动能培育壮大，国民经济延续稳中有进发展 态势，尽管投资增速略有放缓，但投资结构在优化，中国的投资潜力和空间依然巨大。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：居住价格上涨0.1%，生活用品及服务价格上涨1.9%，交通通信价格下 降1.5%，教育文化娱乐价格上涨0.9%，医疗保健价格上涨1.4%，其他用品及服务价格上涨12.8%。 发布会还介绍，货物进出口保持增长，贸易结构继续优化。1—10月份，一般贸易进出口增长2.3%，占 进出口总额的比重为63.4%。对共建"一带一路"国家进出口增长5.9%。 国家统计局相关负责人表示，总的来看，10月份国民经济运行总体平稳，也要看到，外部环境不稳定不 确定因素较多，经济平稳运行面临不少挑战。下阶段，要进一步强化创新驱动，促进经济质的有效提升 和量的合理增长。 10月国民经济运行出现积极变化 发布会介绍，10月份，国民经济保 ...

l - 十周四峰 \ 名词卡片 "坚持扩大内需这个战略基点,坚持 惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧 密结合,以新需求引领新供给,以新供给 创造新需求,促进消费和投资、供给和需 求良性互动,增强国内大循环内生动力和 可靠性。" "十五五"规划建议 释义 投资于物是指对实物资产进行投资,比如基础 设施、房屋建筑、机器设备等,可以为经济社会发 展夯实物质技术基础。 投资于人是指对全人群、全生命周期人的能力 提升和潜力开发的投入,比如育幼、养老、健康、 教育、技能培训等。 报《普的一十届加由令会/建议、学习辅导百向》 延伸阅读 一、长期以来投资于物对我国经济持续快速发展发挥了重要作用。 多年来，我国通过持续投资于物，实物资本得到有效积累，生产和供给能力不断增强，社会生产力水 平持续提高，有效推动了技术进步和产业发展，有力支撑了新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同 步发展。同时，对物的投资是总需求的重要组成部分，拉动了经济增长，创造了大量就业，带动了居民财 富积累和消费能力提升，并且与民生相关的"物"的投资还直接提高公共服务水平，保障和改善了民生。此 外，近年来对粮食储备、能源基地、应急物资、产业备份等的投资， ...

Group 1: Economic Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic construction as the core focus, aiming to build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing[9] - Key industrial development lines include "hard technology," advanced manufacturing, domestic circulation, and energy resource security[3] - The plan aims to create a market space of 10 trillion yuan by optimizing traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors over the next five years[8] Group 2: Hard Technology and Advanced Manufacturing - The plan highlights the importance of original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs, particularly in AI and digital technologies[12] - The automotive industry is expected to see accelerated commercialization of L3/L4 autonomous driving technologies during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[34] - The focus on advanced manufacturing aims to enhance the global competitiveness of traditional industries like chemicals and machinery, with a push towards smart and green manufacturing[8] Group 3: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - The plan stresses the need to boost consumption and expand effective investment, particularly in the real estate sector, to support high-quality development[3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve the operational environment for construction materials and consumer goods, benefiting companies in these sectors[3] Group 4: Resource Security - The plan calls for strengthening the exploration and development of strategic mineral resources, particularly rare earths, to enhance their strategic importance[3] - It emphasizes the need for a new energy system, focusing on clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy while promoting renewable energy sources[3] Group 5: Market Outlook and Risks - The equity market is expected to maintain high volatility, with a focus on sectors benefiting from industrial recovery and performance superiority[3] - Key risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, lower-than-expected corporate profit growth, and geopolitical uncertainties[3]

Core Viewpoint - The new economic framework in China is characterized by a "dual circulation dynamic balance" system, emphasizing domestic circulation while promoting international engagement to foster mutual growth [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Characteristics - China’s economy has developed five new characteristics over the past decade: 1. Trade policy has shifted from an export-oriented approach to a balanced focus on both imports and exports [1] 2. Capital flow has established a dual balance between outbound investments and inbound foreign capital [1] 3. Regional opening policies have evolved from a coastal-first strategy to a more balanced and coordinated approach across all regions, including East, South, West, North, and Central [1] 4. The scope of foreign trade has expanded from traditional manufacturing to include finance, education, healthcare, and service trade, creating a comprehensive and multi-channel opening pattern [1] 5. The focus has shifted from merely increasing flow and factors of openness to managing according to Free Trade Agreement (FTA) requirements, fostering a market-oriented, rule-of-law, and international business environment [1]

Domestic Macro Policy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, aiming for GDP per capita to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035[2][9]. - The plan outlines that economic and social development should maintain an appropriate speed during the "15th Five-Year" period, with a focus on enhancing living standards and promoting consumption[9][10]. - Infrastructure policies include promoting the application of "AI + healthcare" and accelerating the cultivation of new application scenarios[3][11]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The central bank aims to narrow the short-term interest rate corridor and enhance the role of policy interest rates, with expectations of diverse monetary mechanisms by 2026[3][14]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing expenditure structures and increasing the central government's financial contribution, with a goal to strengthen financial support for major strategic tasks and basic livelihood[3][16][17]. Real Estate and Trade Policies - Recent real estate policies aim to promote high-quality development, optimize the supply of affordable housing, and reform financing and sales systems[4][18]. - In trade, significant progress was made in US-China economic talks, with the US agreeing to suspend a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 24% tariff for one year[4][22][23]. International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with internal divisions on future rate decisions, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintained their rates[4][25]. - The US government remains in a state of partial shutdown, affecting economic data availability and future monetary policy decisions[4][25]. Risk Factors - There is a risk of continued divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy execution may fall short of expectations[5][29].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of balancing between policy expectations and economic realities, with a focus on maintaining reasonable liquidity through monetary policy [2] - The market is expected to shift from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with anticipated stronger fiscal policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [2] - The "new quality productivity" and "domestic circulation" themes are expected to remain active despite the overall market maintaining a state of fluctuation [2] Group 2 - Growth style is expected to continue to outperform in the annual context, but the fourth quarter may see a stronger shift in investment styles, particularly towards undervalued sectors [3] - The strength of style changes in the fourth quarter may surpass that of valuation adjustments, influenced by the relative valuation advantages of value stocks compared to growth stocks [3] - The cyclical sectors may benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and improving the fundamental outlook in the coming year [3] Group 3 - Recent market price increases are driven by anticipations of a cyclical upturn in the coming year, with historical patterns indicating that certain years are associated with rising PPI [4] - The overlap of China's five-year cycle and the U.S. four-year cycle is expected to culminate in a significant year for industrial metal prices in 2026 [4] - Current cyclical investment opportunities include sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, which are seen as favorable for positioning [4] Group 4 - The market has experienced increased volatility since October, with a shift in the underlying structure of incremental capital affecting traditional aggressive timing strategies [5] - The stability of the corporate overseas environment and developments in AI are critical variables influencing market dynamics, impacting various sectors including TMT, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [5] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is focused on selecting stocks with a rising trend in ROE rather than avoiding AI narratives, which are seen as influencing market slopes rather than overall trends [5]

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical transitional phase towards achieving the goal of basic socialist modernization by 2035, building on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][14] - The plan emphasizes high-quality development, balancing stable growth with efficiency improvements, and includes new targets for technological self-reliance and enhanced national security [6][22] Group 1: Development Goals - The plan sets multi-dimensional development goals, highlighting the importance of increasing total factor productivity (TFP) and improving the resident consumption rate [5][18] - It introduces a focus on technological self-reliance and prioritizes the well-being of citizens over ecological goals, reflecting a heightened emphasis on industrial autonomy and social welfare [6][22] Group 2: High-Quality Development - High-quality development is the central theme, aiming to enhance the global competitiveness of traditional industries while fostering strategic emerging industries such as renewable energy and low-altitude economy [6][25] - The plan stresses the integration of technology and industry, particularly in critical areas like integrated circuits and industrial machinery, to drive innovation [6][29] Group 3: Domestic and International Circulation - The plan aims to strengthen domestic circulation by boosting employment, increasing income, and enhancing public services to unlock consumption potential [2][33] - It emphasizes the construction of a unified national market to eliminate regional and industry barriers, facilitating smoother circulation of goods and services [2][35] Group 4: Common Prosperity - The plan addresses common prosperity by focusing on employment, income distribution, education, social security, and housing, aiming to expand the middle-income group and promote equitable access to public services [2][7] - It highlights the need for sustainable social security systems and improved housing security to enhance the quality of life for all citizens [7][22] Group 5: Safety and Development - The plan integrates safety and development, establishing a risk prevention system across key sectors such as supply chains, technology, energy, data, and finance [2][6] - It aims to enhance resilience by embedding risk management into economic activities and ensuring that safety requirements are reflected in market regulations [6][17] Group 6: Party Leadership - The comprehensive leadership of the Party is emphasized as a fundamental guarantee for the implementation of the plan, ensuring that political advantages are translated into governance effectiveness [2][7] - The plan calls for the establishment of a robust leadership system and the promotion of strict party governance and anti-corruption measures [2][7]

当前，世界经济增长动能不足，全球发展赤字扩大，贸易保护主义加剧。面对日趋复杂严峻的外部 环境，我国提出的一个重大战略决策就是加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新 发展格局，并在实践中不断增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性、提升国际循环质量和水平。习近平总书 记在《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的说明》中指出："外 部环境越是严峻复杂，越要加快构建新发展格局，牢牢把握发展主动权。当前和今后一个时期，要坚持 做强国内大循环，加快形成强大国内经济循环体系，以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定 性。"加快构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化，特别 是基于我国比较优势变化，审时度势作出的重大决策，是事关全局的系统性、深层次变革，是立足当 前、着眼长远的战略谋划，需从全局和战略的高度准确把握加快构建新发展格局的战略构想，深刻理解 其重要意义，不断探索其实践路径。 抢抓机遇应对挑战的战略选择 2020年4月，习近平总书记在十九届中央财经委员会第七次会议上阐述对国家中长期经济社会发展 战略若干重大问题的深入思考时，首次提出"构建以国内大循 ...

当前，世界经济增长动能不足，全球发展赤字扩大，贸易保护主义加剧。面对日趋复杂严峻的外部环 境，我国提出的一个重大战略决策就是加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发 展格局，并在实践中不断增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性、提升国际循环质量和水平。习近平总书记 在《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的说明》中指出："外部 环境越是严峻复杂，越要加快构建新发展格局，牢牢把握发展主动权。当前和今后一个时期，要坚持做 强国内大循环，加快形成强大国内经济循环体系，以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性。"加 快构建新发展格局是以习近平同志为核心的党中央根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化，特别是基于我 国比较优势变化，审时度势作出的重大决策，是事关全局的系统性、深层次变革，是立足当前、着眼长 远的战略谋划，需从全局和战略的高度准确把握加快构建新发展格局的战略构想，深刻理解其重要意 义，不断探索其实践路径。 具备坚实基础和诸多优势 "十四五"时期，构建新发展格局扎实推进。一方面，国内大循环主体地位巩固，内生动力日益强劲。 2021年至2024年，内需对经济增长的平均贡献率为86. ...

Group 1 - The current demand for liquor is at a historical low, with limited downside risks, supported by a relatively loose policy environment that lays the foundation for consumption recovery [1] - More supportive policies are expected to be introduced, aiding in the gradual stabilization and recovery of liquor demand, which may see a slow upward trend in the future [1] - Short-term demand is expected to be rigid, particularly in banquet scenarios, due to a low base in the same period, while mid-term policy stimuli may stabilize high-end liquor demand [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry's performance is anticipated to show a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery in the second and third quarters, supported by a low base [1] - In the current industry cycle bottom, smaller enterprises are accelerating their exit, while leading companies are expected to enhance their market share due to superior organizational management and strong risk resistance capabilities [1] - The industry currently exhibits significant valuation advantages, with leading liquor companies possessing medium to long-term investment value [1] Group 3 - The policy framework is increasingly focused on reinforcing the "domestic circulation" strategy, utilizing targeted measures such as consumption subsidies and tax incentives to promote domestic demand structure upgrades [1] - Current policies emphasize the connection between the "external demand easing period" and the "internal demand cultivation period," allowing for rapid policy activation to counter external impacts if U.S. tariff policies fluctuate [1] - This combination of "short-term relief and mid-term transformation" policies signifies that the country is accelerating the construction of a more resilient economic development system [1]