Economic Overview - The preliminary data for the first three quarters indicates that the GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 58.06 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%; the secondary industry added value was 364.02 billion yuan, increasing by 4.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 592.96 billion yuan, rising by 5.4% [1] - Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q3 [1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while the service sector's added value increased by 5.4% [4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365.88 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371.54 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5% [4] Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics noted that the economic policies aimed at stabilizing employment and the economy have been effective, leading to a generally stable performance in major macroeconomic indicators [4] - Despite positive developments, the economy still faces significant risks and challenges, including external uncertainties and the need to strengthen the foundation for domestic economic recovery [4] - Future efforts will focus on implementing the central government's decisions, maintaining a stable yet progressive approach, and promoting high-quality development to ensure sustained and healthy economic growth [4]

10月20日，据国家统计局公布的最新数据，初步核算，前三季度国内生产总值 1015036 亿元，按不变价格计算，同比 增长 5.2% 。 分产业看，第一产业增加值 58061 亿元，同比增长 3.8% ；第二产业增加值 364020 亿元，增长 4.9% ；第三产业 增加值 592955 亿元，增长 5.4% 。 分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4% ，二季度增长 5.2% ，三季度增长 4.8% 。从环比看，三季度国内生 产总值增长 1.1% 。 编辑｜钉钉 图片来源｜新华社 ...

Core Viewpoint - The preliminary data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] Economic Performance by Sector - The primary industry added value of 58.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The secondary industry added value of 364.02 billion yuan, showing a growth of 4.9% [1] - The tertiary industry added value of 592.95 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.4% [1] Quarterly Growth Analysis - In the first quarter, the GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year [1] - In the second quarter, the growth rate was 5.2% year-on-year [1] - In the third quarter, the GDP growth rate decreased to 4.8% year-on-year [1] - On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the GDP grew by 1.1% in the third quarter [1]

Core Insights - The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has maintained the policy interest rate at 11% for the third consecutive time since June 2025, citing a downward trend in inflation and slight macroeconomic deterioration due to recent floods [8] - The SBP has revised the GDP growth forecast for FY 2025-2026 down to approximately 3.25%, a decrease of nearly one percentage point due to the adverse effects of ongoing floods on the agricultural sector [9] - The government has accumulated an average monthly debt of over 817.375 billion PKR in the first 16 months of its term, with total debt rising to 77.888 trillion PKR, primarily driven by domestic debt growth [9] - The current account deficit for August 2025 was reported at $245 million, showing a decrease from the previous month's revised deficit of $379 million, indicating a dependency on strong remittances and stable exports [10] - A five-year maritime action plan has been agreed upon between China and Pakistan to operate the China-Guadar-Africa shipping corridor, positioning Gwadar as a "green port" and enhancing infrastructure connections [10] - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has highlighted that Pakistan lags behind other regional countries in digital trade opportunities, estimating Pakistan's digital trade for 2024 at $7.93 billion, significantly lower than its ASEAN counterparts [10] - The Prime Minister of Pakistan emphasized the importance of converting signed agreements from the China-Pakistan B2B meetings into binding contracts to ensure smooth Chinese investments under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 2.0 plan [11]

Core Insights - US consumer spending showed unexpectedly strong momentum in August, with retail sales data increasing for the third consecutive month. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation grew by 2.1% year-over-year, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [1][5]. Retail Sales Performance - August retail sales increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.5% [1]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7%, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% and matching the prior month's growth [1]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline also increased by 0.7%, again above the expected 0.4% [1]. Sector Contributions - The retail growth in August was broad-based, with 9 out of 13 major categories reporting increases. Online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores were the primary drivers, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping [3]. - The restaurant sector rebounded with a 0.7% increase after a decline in the previous month [3]. - Despite expectations that auto sales would drag down overall data, this category continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace [3]. Key Indicators - A critical indicator known as the "control group" sales rose by 0.7% in August, significantly above the estimated 0.4%. This metric excludes food services, auto dealers, building material stores, and gas stations, serving as a core reference for calculating GDP [7]. Economic Context - Consumer spending capacity appears supported by several factors, including wage growth that outpaces inflation for many workers. Additionally, rising stock markets have contributed to a wealth effect, particularly benefiting higher-income groups [8]. - This strong performance contrasts with market concerns about economic slowdown and may influence Federal Reserve decision-making regarding interest rates [8].

Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending showed unexpectedly strong momentum in August, with retail sales data increasing for the third consecutive month [1][2] - Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year-over-year, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [1][4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales in August rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, and the previous month's increase of 0.5% [3] - Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.7%, surpassing the expected 0.4% [3] - Retail sales excluding both automobiles and gasoline also rose by 0.7%, against an expectation of 0.4% [3] Sector Contributions - The growth in August was broad-based, with 9 out of 13 major categories reporting increases [1] - Online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores led the growth, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping [1] - Restaurant spending rebounded by 0.7% after a decline in the previous month [1] Economic Implications - The strong retail performance contrasts with market concerns about an economic slowdown and may influence Federal Reserve decision-making [7] - The "control group" sales, which exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gas stations, rose by 0.7%, serving as a key indicator for consumer demand [7]

Economic Growth - Kyrgyzstan's GDP for January to August is estimated at 1.0421 trillion som (approximately 11.9 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% [1] - The service sector accounts for 50.8% of the economy, while goods production industries represent 33.4%, and product taxes make up 15.8% [1] Sector Performance - Industrial output increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with mining growing by 15.5% and manufacturing by 10.8% [1] - The construction sector showed significant growth with a 34.8% increase in output [1] - Wholesale and retail trade grew by 11.6%, while the hotel and restaurant services sector saw a 25.4% increase [1] - Agricultural, forestry, and fishing sectors grew by 2.4%, and freight volume increased by 9.8% [1] - The telecommunications services sector experienced a growth of 6.6% compared to the same period last year [1] Consumer Prices and Trade - The consumer price index in Kyrgyzstan rose by 5.1% from December of the previous year [1] - The foreign trade volume from January to July was 8.6644 billion USD, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.4% [1] - Exports amounted to 1.4931 billion USD, down 13.3% year-on-year, while imports totaled 7.1713 billion USD, a decrease of 4.8% [1]

Core Insights - The Astana Finance Days forum has become a leading platform for dialogue and cooperation in the region, attracting representatives from over 70 countries, including investors, businesses, and government agencies [1] - Kazakhstan's economic indicators reflect the significance of the forum, with a GDP growth of 6.3% from January to July 2025, driven by an 8.3% increase in the real economy and a 5.2% growth in the service sector [1] - Foreign direct investment inflows reached $6.6 billion in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, while fixed asset investments totaled 9.9 trillion tenge (approximately $18.5 billion), up 16.1% year-on-year [1]

Economic Overview - Mongolia's GDP reached 40.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 11.216 billion USD) in the first half of 2025, reflecting an increase of 3.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 918 million USD) and a growth rate of 5.6% year-on-year [1] Sector Performance - The service sector generated a value of 17.4 trillion tugrik (approximately 4.843 billion USD), with a year-on-year increase of 1.89 trillion tugrik (approximately 526 million USD), marking a growth of 12.2% [1] - The mining sector's output was 10.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 2.867 billion USD), experiencing a decline of 849.9 billion tugrik (approximately 237 million USD), which represents a decrease of 7.6% [1] - The agricultural and livestock sector produced 4.87 trillion tugrik (approximately 1.355 billion USD), showing a significant increase of 1.47 trillion tugrik (approximately 409 million USD), resulting in a growth of 43.5% [1] - The industrial and construction sector achieved a value of 3.69 trillion tugrik (approximately 1.027 billion USD), with a year-on-year increase of 544.9 billion tugrik (approximately 152 million USD), reflecting a growth of 17.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea is likely to maintain its interest rate unchanged for the second consecutive time during the upcoming policy meeting, with a majority of economists predicting no change [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - A survey of 27 economists shows that 20 expect the interest rate to remain unchanged, while 7 predict a rate cut [1] - Goldman Sachs economists suggest that maintaining the rate could allow the Bank of Korea to monitor household debt trends, assess the effects of fiscal stimulus, and track the Federal Reserve's policy stance [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a rate cut in October [1] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Most economists expect the Bank of Korea to slightly raise its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025 due to stronger-than-expected growth data in the second quarter [1]