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3架飞机被扣俄罗斯,多次尝试无法收回,上市公司公告:已收到1.6亿元保险赔款
新浪财经· 2025-08-12 09:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insurance compensation received by Shanhai Intelligent (山河智能) for aircraft that were stranded in Russia due to geopolitical conflicts, highlighting the financial impact and the company's operational challenges in the aviation leasing sector [2][5]. Group 1: Insurance Compensation - Shanhai Intelligent's subsidiary AVMAX has reached an agreement with the insurance provider for a compensation amount of $29 million, with a net amount of $22.97 million received after deducting legal fees [5]. - The compensation, converted at the exchange rate on August 8, amounts to approximately 164 million RMB, significantly impacting the company's net profit by 126 million RMB, which represents 172.92% of the previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders [5]. Group 2: Aircraft Leasing Contracts - AVMAX had signed three aircraft leasing contracts with Russian clients, with the aircraft being unable to be recalled since the geopolitical conflict began in February 2022 [2][4]. - The aircraft involved include DHC-8-300 and DHC-8-200 models, with lease terms ranging from 96 months to 148 months [4]. Group 3: Market Performance - In the recent trading period, Shanhai Intelligent recorded nine trading halts, with a cumulative increase of 123.19%, leading to a current market capitalization of approximately 19.2 billion RMB [8]. Group 4: Industry Context - Other companies, such as Zhejiang Rifa Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. (日发精机), are also facing similar challenges with aircraft stranded in Russia, indicating a broader issue within the aviation leasing industry due to geopolitical tensions [9][10].
集运日报:中东局势或将恶化,盘面较强震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250811
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 15:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Middle East situation may deteriorate, causing strong fluctuations in the market. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines due to high game - playing difficulty amidst geopolitical conflicts and tariff turmoil [1][3] - In the short - term, the market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take light positions in specific contracts, and partial profit - taking and stop - loss settings are recommended. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when prices rise and wait for a pullback to stabilize [3] - Amidst the volatile international situation, the market shows a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions for arbitrage strategies [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Contents Shipping Indexes - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0%. On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37%; the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% [1] - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39%; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1200.73 points, down 2.6%; the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5%; the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% [1] Manufacturing and Service PMIs - In July, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8. The eurozone's SENTIX investor confidence index in July jumped to 4.5, the highest since April 2022 [1] - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US's July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2] Market and Contract Information - On August 8, the main contract 2510 closed at 1436.0, down 1.34%, with a trading volume of 5.64 million lots and an open interest of 5.66 million lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [3] - The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1, and the spot market price range has been set with a small price increase to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market [3] - The Middle East situation may worsen, and the detour situation cannot be restored in the near term. Maersk raised its full - year profit, making the market sentiment optimistic and the market oscillating strongly [3] Geopolitical Events - On August 10, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli army's next - stage military operations will focus on two locations still controlled by Hamas, and the Israeli army has controlled about 70% - 75% of the Gaza Strip [3][4] - On August 8, the Israeli government's security cabinet passed the so - called "five principles to end the war", including disarming Hamas and other contents [4]
集运日报:中东局势或将恶化,盘面较强震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250811
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 06:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the potential deterioration of the Middle - East situation, the market is strongly volatile with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1][3]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff turmoil, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, the forward - spread structure is dominant with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions and Price Indexes - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% from the previous period [1]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.86 points, down 3.11% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [1]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [1]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1200.73 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [1]. PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5; the services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5; the composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6; the SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [1]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9; the Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, reaching a new high since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [2]. Market Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors have been recommended to try long positions with light positions below 1300 for the 2510 contract (which has made a profit of over 300 points). For the EC2512 contract, light - position short - selling has been recommended, and it is recommended to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international situation turmoil, the forward - spread structure is dominant with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [3]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [3]. Contract Information - On August 8, the main contract 2510 closed at 1436.0, with a decline of 1.34%, a trading volume of 5.64 million lots, and an open interest of 5.66 million lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [3]. - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3]. Geopolitical and Trade Situations - Trump has continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hitting re - export trade. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been determined, with a small price increase to test the market, and the market has slightly rebounded [3]. - The Middle - East situation may deteriorate, and the current detour situation cannot be restored in the near future. Coupled with Maersk's upward adjustment of its annual profit, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the market is strongly volatile [1][3]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the Israeli military's next - stage military operations will focus on two locations still under Hamas control, and the Israeli military has controlled about 70% - 75% of the Gaza Strip. The Israeli security cabinet has instructed the military to clear the "last strongholds of Hamas" [3]. - The Israeli government's security cabinet has passed the so - called "five principles to end the war", including disarming Hamas, repatriating all Israeli detainees, demilitarizing the Gaza Strip, maintaining Israeli security control over the Gaza Strip, and establishing a civilian government that does not belong to Hamas or the Palestinian National Authority [3].
中国宏观周报(2025年8月第1周):天气因素扰动线下活动-20250811
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-11 02:40
Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]
集运日报:现货运价持续回落,悲观情绪加强,主力合约偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250808
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 06:35
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties have increased the difficulty of market gaming. Spot freight rates are continuously declining, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The main contracts are fluctuating weakly, and it is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. [2][5] 3. Detailed Summaries Freight Rate Index - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2,297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period, and the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1,130.12 points, down 12.0% from the previous period. [3] - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1,087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period, and the NCFI for the European route was 1,372.67 points, down 3.53% from the previous period. [3] - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1,550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period, the SCFI European line price was 2,051 USD/TEU, down 1.86% from the previous period, and the SCFI US - West route was 2,021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% from the previous period. [3] - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1,232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period, the CCFI for the European route was 1,789.50 points, up 0.1% from the previous period, and the CCFI for the US - West route was 876.57 points, down 0.5% from the previous period. [3] PMI Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The eurozone's July services PMI preliminary value reached 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The eurozone's July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022. [3] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. [4] - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected value of 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected value of 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The US July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, reaching a new high since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9. [4] Policy and Market Situation - Trump continues to impose tariffs on many countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hits re - export trade. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases, and the spot market has a small price increase to test the market, leading to a small rebound in the market. [5] Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions below 1,300 in the 2510 contract (it has made a profit of over 300 points), and partially stop profit. For the EC2512 contract, it is advised to lightly test short positions and set a stop - profit. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. [5] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily stay on the sidelines or lightly try. [5] - **Long - term Strategy**: It is advised to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the market to pull back and stabilize, and then judge the subsequent situation. [5] Market Data of Main Contracts On August 7, the main contract 2510 closed at 1,420.4, down 0.98%, with a trading volume of 261,000 lots and an open interest of 536,000 lots, a decrease of 765 lots from the previous day. [5] Contract Adjustment Information - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. [5] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots. [5]
集运日报:现货运价持续回落悲观情绪加强主力合约偏弱震荡近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250808
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 05:51
美国7目标普全球制造业PMI初值为49.5,预期52.7,前值52.9; 7月标普全球服务业PMI初值为55.2,预期53, 前值52.9。美国7月Markit综合 PMI初值为54.6,创2024年12月以来新高,好于预期的52.8,前值为52.9。 | 特朗普继续加征多国关税,以东南亚各国为主,进一步打击转口 | | 短期策略:短期盘面或以反弹为主,风险偏好者已建议2510合约 | | --- | --- | --- | | 贸易, 近期博弈难度较高,部分船司宣涨运价。特朗普政府暂时 | | 1300以下轻合试多 (已走出300以上利润空间) 部分止窗: EC2512 | | 将关税谈判日期推迟至8月1日,目前现货市场价格区间已定,有 | श्ल डि | 合约已建议轻仓试空,建议止盈。关注后续盘面走势,不建议扛 | | 小幅涨价试探市场,盘面小幅反弹。综上述,我们认为,在地缘 | | 单,设置好止损。 | | 冲突叠加关税动荡,博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。 | 炭 | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,以正套结构为主,波动较大,建 | | | | 议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 8月7日主力合约251 ...
集运日报:SCFIS微幅下调,市场氛围偏空,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250805
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 06:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has slightly declined, the market sentiment is bearish, and the market is fluctuating weakly with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [1]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading difficulty is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see [4]. - The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers are advised to go long lightly below 1300 for the 2510 contract and take partial profits when a profit margin of over 300 is achieved. For the EC2512 contract, it is advised to go short lightly and take profits. Attention should be paid to subsequent market trends, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - losses should be set [4]. - In the context of international situation turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [4]. - For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when each contract rises and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Indexes - On August 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2297.86 points, down 0.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1130.12 points, down 12.0% [2]. - On August 1, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1087.66 points, down 2.06% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1372.67 points, down 3.53%; for the US - West route, it was 1114.45 points, down 0.54% [2]. - On August 1, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1550.74 points, down 41.85 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2051 USD/TEU, down 1.86%; for the US - West route, it was 2021 USD/FEU, down 2.23% [2]. - On August 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1232.29 points, down 2.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1789.50 points, up 0.1%; for the US - West route, it was 876.57 points, down 0.5% [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI preliminary value was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI preliminary value was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than June's 0.2 and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [2]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9; the services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [3]. 3.3 Market News and Policy - Trump continues to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hits transit trade. Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration has postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price increase to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [4]. - On August 3, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched three "special military operations" against two Israeli military targets and the Haifa port, and an Israeli air defense system shot down a drone from Yemen. There were no casualties reported [4]. - On August 1, the WTO reported that the global service trade growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 slowed to 5%, about half of the growth rates in 2024 and 2023. Service trade exports in Europe and North America only increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the data in the first quarter of 2024. In contrast, Asia maintained a strong growth of 9%. Financial service exports increased by 3% year - on - year, reflecting a decrease in investment activities due to increased global economic uncertainty [4]. 3.4 Contract Information - On August 4, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1421.8, with a decline of 0.72%, a trading volume of 3.03 million lots, and an open interest of 5.11 million lots, a decrease of 1323 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 28%. The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].
集运日报:多数大宗商品持续下跌观望情绪较浓盘面宽幅震荡近期波动较大不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250804
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 06:18
2025年8月4日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 多数大宗商品持续下跌,观望情绪较浓,盘面宽幅震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 8月1日 7月28日 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数)1087.66点,较上期下跌2.06% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线)2400.50点,较上期下跌0.9% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1372.67点,较上期下跌3.53% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(美西航线)1301.81点,较上期上涨2.8% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(美西航线)1114.45点,较上期下跌0.54% 8月1日 8月1日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1550.74点,较上期下跌41.85点 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数)1232.29点,较上期下跌2.3% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2051USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.86% 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(欧洲航线)1789.50点,较上期上涨0.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2021USD/FEU, ...
2025年8月1日集运日报:市场氛围偏空,大宗商品均下跌较多,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。-20250801
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 11:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is bearish, with significant declines in commodities and the futures market showing weak oscillations and high volatility. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set. Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the trading environment is complex, and it is advised to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Index - On July 28, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50% from the previous period [2]. - On July 25, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a 2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. 3.3 Market News - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, which further hit re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced price increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 31, the main contract 2510 closed at 1425.1, down 4.66%, with a trading volume of 46,300 lots and an open interest of 51,800 lots, a decrease of 3056 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Risk - takers were advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and partially take profits; they were also advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with high volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, it was recommended to take profits when prices rose, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].
集运日报:市场氛围偏空,大宗商品均下跌较多,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250801
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:20
2025年8月1日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 市场氛围偏空,大宗商品均下跌较多,盘面偏弱震荡,近期波动较大,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损, SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线)2400.50点,较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数)1110.57点,较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(美西航线)1301.81点,较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线)1422.9点,较上期下跌1.20% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(美西航线)1120.51点,较上期下跌5.19% | | 7月25日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点,较上期下跌54.31点 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数)1261.35点,较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线2 ...