Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

2025 年 07 月 09 日 从对等关税到"歧视性关税" 世 界 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵宇 (8621)23297818× zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 美东时间 7 月 7 日，特朗普向日本、韩国等 14 国发送了上调关税的信件。新关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，税率较为接近 4 月初的对等关税。市场选择"理性忽视"，等待后续的数据验证。 一、美国关税执行现状？特朗普推迟关税暂停截至日，或分批发出关税上调信函 截至 5 月，美国平均关税税率 7.4%，加征进度偏慢。截至最新数据，美国对中国税率 38.6%， 对日本 9.3%、对英国 6.2%，对越南 4.8%、对德国 6%。主要产品关税中，汽车进口税率 13.4%， 钢制产品进口税率 29.5%、铝产品 23%，塑料产品 11.3%，电气设备 8.3%。 7 月 7 日，美国宣布提 ...

马来西亚央行：经济增长前景的风险偏向下行，主要源于全球贸易放缓。展望未来，经济增长预计将受 到国内需求韧性的支持。降低基准利率是为应对适度通胀前景而采取的先发制人措施，旨在维护经济的 稳定增长。 ...

智通财经7月9日电，新西兰联储将基准利率维持在3.25%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

金十数据7月9日讯，新西兰联储将基准利率维持在3.25%不变，符合市场预期，此前连续六次会议降 息。 新西兰联储如期维持利率不变 ...

Group 1 - The wealth management industry is showing positive signals, with the average annualized return of closed-end products at 2.78%, trailing the benchmark by 0.16 percentage points [1] - The actual payout returns of various products are increasingly approaching their performance benchmarks this year, prompting deeper discussions about the attractiveness of performance benchmarks in the wealth management industry [1] Group 2 - There is a noticeable divergence in returns between open-ended and closed-end fixed-income wealth management products, with open-ended products achieving an average payout return of 2.73%, up 7 basis points (0.07 percentage points) from the previous month, exceeding their average performance benchmark by 4 basis points [2] - Closed-end products, on the other hand, saw an average payout return of 2.78%, down 3 basis points, and lagging behind the average performance benchmark by 16 basis points [2] - This divergence is attributed to differences in portfolio structure and market conditions, with open-ended products benefiting from flexible redemption mechanisms and better capturing market fluctuations [2] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that closed-end products require investors to sacrifice some liquidity for potentially higher returns or lower volatility, but their returns are significantly influenced by the timing of establishment and maturity [3] - Historical data shows that the deviation between the actual payout returns of closed-end products and their performance benchmarks has narrowed significantly over time, indicating reduced volatility in these products [3] Group 4 - The concept of performance benchmarks and the associated assessment of wealth management product performance has sparked increasing discussion within the industry, with some critics arguing that certain benchmark ranges have lost their reference value for investors [4] - Industry leaders emphasize the importance of logically setting performance benchmark ranges to reflect product positioning, investment strategies, and risk limits [4][5] - The establishment of performance benchmarks is deemed necessary for guiding investment managers in strategy formulation and ensuring a client-centered approach [5]

7月9日关税"大限"到来前，美国总统特朗普公布了下月将要对日本实行的新关税税率。美东时间7月7 日，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布了致日本首相石破茂、韩国总统李在明的信件，表示美国将自2025年 8月1日起对所有日本和韩国产品征收25%的关税。 特朗普在信中表示，尽管美国与韩国和日本之间存在巨额贸易逆差，美国仍决定继续与两国合作。然 而，美国决定以更加平衡、公平的贸易为前提，继续向前推进。特朗普称，贸易逆差已对美国经济乃至 国家安全构成重大威胁，因此必须作出改变。自2025年8月1日起，美国将对所有韩国和日本产品征收 25%的关税，此项关税将独立于各类行业性关税。此外，任何试图通过第三国转运来规避该关税的做 法，也将被征以更高的关税。 不过，选择在美国境内建厂或生产产品的公司无需缴纳此项关税。此外，他还警告，若韩国和日本决定 提高对美关税，则美国将在现有25%税率基础上追加同等幅度关税。 一位白宫官员7日在被问及对日本和韩国的关税时表示，美国不会将针对特定国家的关税叠加在行业关 税之上。据贸易政策追踪机构"全球贸易预警"的说法，"关税叠加"是指对同一种进口产品适用多项关 税，导致"累计关税"。 特朗普称，他可以对 ...

普益标准发布了6月银行理财市场月报。除了产品发行量显著回升外，还有一个值得关注的市场表现。 与理财公司到期开放式固收产品的平均兑付收益率（年化约为2.73%）超过平均业绩比较基准不同，6月封闭 式产品平均兑付年化收益率为2.78%，落后基准0.16个百分点。普益标准将其归因为"产品机制与市场行情的错 配"。 券商中国记者复盘长期数据发现，今年以来多数产品的实际兑付收益率，跟其业绩基准越来越接近。这是一个 好现象，因为此前市场一度有争议声存在：一些区间型业绩比较基准跨度较大，对投资者失去参考价值；同时 一些理财公司为了加大对客户的吸引，将业绩比较下限设置较高，而实际资产端欠配中高收益资产，使得业绩 达标率并没有符合预期。 这些现象的背后，基于"业绩比较基准"为锚的业绩达标率考核，近年来在理财行业引起的思考向深，讨论趋 多。记者就此采访了多名理财公司相关负责人，他们都认为，业绩比较基准对于制定产品投资策略、限定资产 端的风险容忍、约束投资经理的行为等均起着重要作用。 （二）对投资业绩的达标率考核持续优化 （一）兑付收益与业绩基准的偏离度持续缩窄 普益标准发布的银行理财市场6月报显示，理财公司开放式固收理财和封闭式 ...

最近大盘连续创下年内新高。7月4日，上证指数又创下3497.22点的年内新高，距离3500点仅"一步之 遥"。随着行情回暖，作为"冲锋旗手"的券商板块备受瞩目，可考虑重视这轮基本面与资产端共振的行 情，具有费率优势的券商ETF（159842）或值得关注。（数据来源：Wind，2025.01.02-2025.07.07） 行业有催化 l 开辟全新增长曲线 6月25日，首家香港中资券商获得可提供全方位新型资产相关交易服务的牌照。加密资产战略逐步落 地，带来布局新业务的机遇，开辟券商行业全新增长曲线； 券商在金融科技的投入规模呈现逐年提升趋势，AI+金融、新兴资产等金融创新模式不断落地，或将为 券商注入更多元的发展动力； 政策面对中长期资金入市提出投资A股规模、比例的明确指标要求；公募基金高质量发展有望逐步影响 行业配置，券商板块或将受益。公募新规后，低估的券商板块有望受益"基准回归"。 （资料参考：证券时报，《政策利好叠加交投活跃 券商业绩估值有望双升》，2025.7.2；《广发证券： 增量资金或接力入市 打开证券板块业绩与估值空间》，2025.7.1） l 行业格局有望优化 券商行业净利润CR10提升至63% ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.85%, following a series of rate hikes and subsequent cuts since May 2022 [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBA has raised interest rates by a total of 425 basis points from May 2022 to November 2023, before cutting rates by 50 basis points in 2023 [1]. - The decision to keep the cash rate unchanged was made with a majority vote of 6 to 3 [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation in Australia has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with the overall inflation rate falling to the midpoint of the target range of 2-3% in Q1 [2]. - The underlying inflation rate has also dropped to 2.9%, and the RBA anticipates that further rate cuts could bring it closer to the target midpoint [2]. - Recent CPI data suggests that inflation in Q2 may be slightly above expectations, prompting the RBA to wait for more information before making further decisions [2]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - While private demand appears to be recovering and household income is rising, some industries are struggling with weak demand and rising costs [3]. - The labor market remains tight, with labor supply constraints affecting business growth, and wage growth has decreased from peak levels [3]. - The RBA believes that inflation risks are balanced, but uncertainties in total demand and supply in the Australian economy warrant a cautious approach [3].