交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 8 日 我们认为，即使补贴战持续至年底，美团仍有机会看到运营利润持平可 能性，商户、骑手端运营和调度仍是维持市占核心，美团外卖仍有领先 优势，并有较大概率维持市占，短期利润下调不影响长期观点，股价下 行空间有限，维持目标价 165 港元，维持买入。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 年初至今 升跌% | | 恒指 | 23,888 | 0.01 | 15.82 | | 国指 | 8,609 | -0.01 | 18.09 | | 上 A | 3,640 | 0.03 | 3.62 | | 上 B | 260 | 0.15 | -2.82 | | 深 A | 2,170 | -0.06 | 5.99 | | 深 B | 1,233 | -0.25 | 1.64 | | 道指 | 44,406 | -0.94 | 4.38 | | 标普 500 | 6,230 | -0.79 | 5.92 | | 纳指 | 20,413 | -0.92 | 5.71 | | 英国富时100 | 8,8 ...

机构：交银国际 外卖补贴6 月加码，预计CLC 运营利润同比降16%。我们判断，虽外卖市场竞争加剧，但2 季度美团外 卖补贴投入应仍以中高线城市部分竞争品类为主，我们按约45%的单量补贴翻倍估算，餐饮外卖单量增 速或较此前预期的中高个位数提升至10%，日均单量6480 万单，单均盈利或约1.2-1.3元。考虑到闪购维 持略超30%的单量增速，预计即时配送日均单量达到7700 万单，同比增13%。预计CLC 收入同比增 10%，运营利润降16%。新业务仍维持此前预期，预计收入增22%，亏损约26 亿元。 研究员：谷馨瑜/孙梦琪/赵丽/蔡涵 3 季度初即开启的补贴战，或带动日单同比增速达双位数，但考虑到茶饮单量及补贴冲减影响， AOV 或将同比下降，收入增速进一步放缓，但到店仍维持领先地位，预计3 季度CLC 收入增速或维持10%， 利润同比下降9%，主要考虑2 季度业绩旺季下的高基数影响，以及3 季度暑期骑手补贴等成本亦或是后 续补贴节奏的重要影响因素。同时，美团优选关闭减亏区域可能释放约30-40 亿元亏损，补充后续外卖 补贴投入。因此，我们认为，即使补贴战持续至年底，美团仍有机会看到运营利润持平可能性。我们 ...

作者 | 第一财经 揭书宜 2025.07. 07 本文字数：762，阅读时长大约2分钟 7月7日，茶饮股集体高开。截至当日收盘，茶百道(02555.HK)涨11%，报10.66港元；奈雪的茶(02150.HK)涨3.95%，报1.58港元；古茗(01364.HK)涨 6.15%，报27.6港元；沪上阿姨(02589.HK)涨5.68%，报141.3港元；蜜雪集团(02097.HK)涨5.74%，报543.5港元。 美团你赢了 实在喝不下了隔隔隔#美团外卖 #美团 #奶茶 （中国日报双语新闻引用图源：小红书@奶油） 7月5日至7月6日，阿里、美团外卖大战白热化。两个平台分别发放外卖大额券，其中包括"满25减21""满25减20""满16减16"等多张无门槛的外卖券。7 月5日，"美团崩了"登上热搜。7月5日夜间，美团发布了战报，表示截至当日22时54分，美团即时零售当日订单已经突破了1.2亿单。其中，餐饮订单已超 过1亿单。 这番力度颇大的折扣，导致在全国范围内外卖订单数量激增，不少消费者在网上晒出自己在冰箱里囤满蜜雪冰城、茶百道等照片，感慨"实在是喝不下了。" 微信编辑 | 苏小 实习生 | 小朱 推荐阅读 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent massive competition in the food delivery market, driven by significant subsidies from Alibaba and Meituan, has led to an unprecedented surge in orders, particularly in the tea beverage sector, causing operational challenges for delivery platforms and restaurants [1][14][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 7, 2023, Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me reported over 80 million daily orders, with non-food orders exceeding 13 million, marking a significant increase from over 10 million orders on May 4 [1]. - The tea beverage sector saw a collective surge in stock prices, with companies like Cha Bai Dao, Gu Ming, and Nai Xue's Tea rising over 10% on July 7, 2023 [2]. - Meituan's stock fell by 1.49% while Alibaba's stock saw a slight increase of 0.29% amid the intense competition [3]. Group 2: Subsidy Impact - On July 2, 2023, Taobao announced a substantial subsidy plan of 50 billion yuan, leading to a significant increase in orders across various retail categories, particularly in prepared foods and beverages [5]. - The introduction of "zero-cost purchases" for certain items led to overwhelming demand, causing Meituan's platform to experience outages due to the unprecedented order volume [6][11]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Many tea shops reported a dramatic increase in daily orders, with some locations handling 300-500 orders compared to their usual volume, leading to staff working up to 14 hours a day [8]. - Delivery personnel reported record earnings due to the high volume of orders and increased delivery fees, with some earning over 1,700 yuan in a single day [10][12]. - The intense competition has resulted in longer wait times for customers, as tea shops struggle to keep up with the surge in demand [11][12]. Group 4: Competitive Strategies - The competition intensified as Alibaba aimed to surpass Meituan's order volume, targeting 90 million to 100 million orders on July 5, 2023 [15]. - Meituan responded with aggressive coupon promotions to retain market share against Alibaba's subsidy initiatives [16].

上周周末淘宝、美团打响史诗级外卖大战！ 7月5日晚间，阿里、美团分别发放外卖大额券，网友晒出的截图显示，部分外卖甚至还能"零元 购"。"这外卖大战再这么打下去，我要'出栏'了！"有网友打趣道。 随着优惠券发放，单量剧增，不断有用户涌入淘宝闪购、美团两大平台下单，导致美团一度"崩了"。 随后美团回应：用户下单量突破历史峰值，触发了服务器限流保护，美团App小范围地区用户出现了短 时服务异常，现已全面恢复，大家可以正常下单。在此期间部分受影响用户的优惠券，可延续至次日继 续使用。 美团内网公布的信息显示，截至7月5日22时54分，美团即时零售当日订单已经突破了1.2亿单，其中餐 饮订单已超过1亿单。当晚20时45分，美团内网曾显示即时零售日订单突破了1亿单。 从7月5日晚网友不断晒出的截图可以看到，淘宝闪购、美团两大平台放出了大量的外卖红包券。其中包 括"满25减21""满25减20""满16减16"等多张无门槛的外卖券。 业内人士分析，这场外卖大战，可能源于7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布启动规模高达500亿元的补贴计划。此 前数据显示，补贴上线首日，淘宝闪购餐饮连锁品牌和中小商家的订单量分别环比增长170%和140%。 ...

作 者丨周慧 编 辑丨骆一帆 "今天订单太多了，我这一趟就送了十单。"7月5日晚上十点，北京一位饿了么骑手告诉21世 纪经济报道记者。 7月5日新一轮外卖补贴大战，也被用户称为"薅羊毛日"。在社交媒体上，很多网友晒出"0元 购"外卖订单，有用户称一天点了十多单外卖；有商家晒出门店门口蜂拥的骑手和自取订单用 户，以及面对超长出单票据的焦灼店员。 2025年的外卖补贴大战，从4月份就开始了，京东外卖率先宣布启动"百亿补贴"，7月2日，淘 宝闪购又宣布启动500亿元补贴计划。淘宝闪购在7月5日发起的大额补贴模式，或和7月2日宣 布的500亿补贴计划有关。相对四月份的外卖补贴大战来说，美团在7月5日的表现更为高调和 激进，向用户推送了大批优惠券的同时，晚间还在内网连续两次发布日订单数峰值。截至22 时54分，美团即时零售当日订单已经突破了1.2亿单，其中，餐饮订单已超过1亿单。 有商家称，7月5日将是所有奶茶店店员无法忘记的日子。显然，外卖行业的低价补贴模式还 在持续，以后或许还会有类似的爆单日出现。 7月5日，淘宝闪购优惠券补贴力度加码，记者的账户就收到了"满19减19"、"满18减18"、"满 25减22"等多张 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in food delivery orders on July 5 is attributed to a new round of aggressive subsidies from platforms like Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan, leading to a significant increase in user engagement and order volume [2][3][4][6]. Group 1: Subsidy War Dynamics - Taobao Flash Sale initiated a substantial subsidy program, announcing a 500 billion yuan plan, which coincided with a spike in user orders, with reports of users placing multiple orders in a single day [2][4]. - Meituan responded aggressively by distributing a large number of coupons, including "0 yuan delivery" offers, resulting in a record-breaking order volume of over 1.2 billion on July 5, with more than 1 billion being food orders [3][7][8]. - The competition has intensified, with Meituan's order volume surpassing previous peaks, indicating a shift in market dynamics as platforms vie for consumer attention during the summer promotional season [7][9]. Group 2: Market Impact and Consumer Behavior - The influx of subsidies has led to a notable increase in order volumes across the industry, with Taobao Flash Sale achieving a daily order peak of 60 million, which is 66.7% of Meituan's previous peak [5]. - Consumers are increasingly drawn to the low-cost offerings, with many opting for multiple beverage orders throughout the day, highlighting a shift in consumption patterns driven by promotional incentives [9]. - Industry leaders, including Meituan's CEO, have acknowledged the challenges posed by high subsidy rates and the potential for "false prosperity" in order volumes, emphasizing the need for sustainable competition practices [9].

部分外卖甚至还能"零元购"。 不少网友晒图 奶茶店已经"失控" | 7月5日晚间 | | --- | | 阿里、美团分别发放外卖大额券 | | 网友晒出的截图显示 | | 部分外卖甚至还能"0元购" | | 还有网友打趣道 | | "这外卖大战再这么打下去， | | 我要'出栏'了！" | 7月5日晚间 上演了"外卖大战" 7月5日晚间，记者不断从各大社交媒体看到消息，阿里、美团两大平台放出了大量且大额的外卖红包 券。其中包括"满25减21""满25减20""满16减16"等多张无门槛的外卖券。 记者亲自试了一下，一杯最常见的连锁品牌美式咖啡，在红包券的加持下，在两个外卖平台购买仅分别 需要2.2元和4.2元，且不需要配送费。 一个肯德基的香辣鸡腿堡 外卖价格仅需要不到10元 优惠20元 你们都点外卖了吗? 外卖平台一度"崩了" 随着优惠券的发放，不断有用户涌入阿里、美团两大平台下单，导致美团一度出现宕机。网友反映点外 卖时点餐页面卡顿、优惠券使用异常，多次重试仍无法下单。随后平台回应：用户下单量突破历史峰 值，触发了服务器限流保护。 | 肯德基宅急送 | 商家自配 | | --- | --- | | 香辣鸡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition between Alibaba and Meituan in the food delivery sector has escalated into a significant subsidy war, driven by Alibaba's large-scale subsidy plan aimed at increasing order volume and market share [1][2]. Group 1: Background of the Battle - The subsidy war was triggered by Alibaba's announcement on July 2 of a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan to attract consumers and merchants through substantial discounts and commission reductions [1]. - Alibaba set July 5 as "Order Surge Day," aiming for peak order volumes between 90 million and 100 million within 2-3 months to match Meituan's order levels [1]. Group 2: Strategies Employed - Alibaba issued a series of high-value, no-threshold discount coupons such as "25 off 21" to draw in consumers [1]. - In response, Meituan quickly launched its own set of attractive coupons, including "25 off 20" and "16 off 16," with some offers allowing for "zero-cost purchases" to maintain its market leadership [1]. Group 3: Battle Outcomes - The influx of users taking advantage of the discounts led to Meituan's app experiencing server overload, resulting in temporary service disruptions and coupon issues [2]. - As of July 5, Meituan reported over 120 million orders for the day, with more than 100 million being food delivery orders, indicating a significant increase in order volume due to the competition [2]. Group 4: Nature and Impact of the Battle - The price war fundamentally aims to capture high-frequency traffic and convert food delivery users into customers for higher-margin businesses like e-commerce and travel [3]. - While platforms may face short-term losses, there is potential for achieving moderate profitability or breakeven in the long run as competition stabilizes [3]. - Consumers benefit from lower prices, but the ongoing price competition will increase resource and profit pressures among platforms, potentially shifting future competition from "subsidy battles" to "ecosystem collaboration" [3].

7月暑期的第一个周末，外卖行业又热闹起来。 记者注意到，连日来，美团与淘宝闪购分别放出了大量且大额的外卖红包券。7月6日，记者打开淘宝闪购App，立马收到"满35元减18元""满15元减11 元"的红包，有网友表示，7月5日，平台派发了"满25元减21元""满16元减16元"等的外卖红包。同样，7月6日，记者打开美团外卖App，发现有两张外卖大 额"神券"自动派发，包括"满38元减18元""满29元减12元"，还可以将"神券"进行膨胀，获得更多的红包优惠。 消费者张女士告诉记者，昨天（7月5日）用了平台外卖红包，甚至可以0元点外卖。 一位外卖平台内部人士向记者表示，暑期一直是外卖的订单高峰期，也是平台的传统促销季。叠加今年春节过后，京东外卖的加入，淘宝闪购联合饿了么 再次发力，平台之间在暑假期间直接面对面抢夺用户，也是意料之中。"只是这次外卖促销的时间来得早，暑假才刚开始。"上述人士说道。 单量暴涨外卖平台"崩"了 随着派发外卖红包的派发，有外卖平台就直接将自己App干崩了。7月5日下午，部分网友在社交平台反馈，美团的外卖页面显示访问出错，出现点不了外 卖的现象。 记者留意到，当日晚上8时，"美团外卖"官方微 ...