橡胶走势下跌，国内产区气候较好，开割推进，预计后期逐步放量，泰国逐步开割。青岛地区总库存持 续增长，短期市场仍需关注美关税政策影响，关税政策本质上对原料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路 径仍存在不确定性，预计天胶走势震荡偏弱。 瑞达期货：ru2509合约短线预计在14200-14800区间波动 全球天然橡胶产区逐步开割，近期云南产区受阴雨天气干扰，集中上量迟缓，原料价格维持高位；海南 产区降水天气改善，原料产出好转，但仍不及往年同期水平，当地加工厂原料维持加价收购状态。海外 货源到港量减少，保税库入库量环比下降，但买盘疲弱，出库动力不足，保税库仍处于累库状态；一般 贸易库存加速去库，轮胎企业产能利用率逐步恢复，带动青岛仓库提货量增加，出库率明显高于入库 率，近期青岛现货总库存呈现去库。需求方面，上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率环比继续提升，多数企业 排产逐步进入稳定状态，但个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅 度，少数企业将在月底存检修计划，或将对整体产能利用率形成拖拽。ru2509合约短线预计在14200- 14800区间波动，nr2507合约短线预计在12350-12800区间波动。 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 5.【4月全球轻型车销量同比增长6%至732万辆】据LMC Automotive最新发布的报告显示，2025年4月全球轻型车经季节调整年化销量为9,200万辆/年，维持 了3月的上升势头。从同比数据来看，当月市场再现强劲增势，销量增长6%达732万辆。中美市场均实现强势同比增长，而西欧市场则持续面临挑战。美国市场销 量在3月提前释放，而这股效应依然存在，4月销量受此推动再创佳绩。中国市场方面，受政府刺激措施的推动，销量依旧保持稳定。与中美市场表现形成反差的是， 由于欧盟消费者信心降至过去17个月以来的最低水平，西欧市场销量出现下滑。 Special report on Guot ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market lacked effective drivers, and rubber prices showed a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. Imported rubber market offers declined, and factory procurement was average. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, with the futures market weakening and the spot market following suit. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously, resulting in average market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. In Yunnan, recent rainy weather has delayed the concentrated supply, keeping raw material prices high. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and raw material output has increased but is still lower than the same period last year. Local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas supplies arriving at ports have decreased, and the inbound volume of bonded warehouses has declined month - on - month. However, due to weak buying, the outbound volume is insufficient, and bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted at an accelerated pace. Tire companies' capacity utilization is gradually recovering, driving up the提货 volume from Qingdao warehouses. The outbound rate is significantly higher than the inbound rate, and the total inventory of Qingdao spot decreased last week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization of domestic tire companies continued to increase week - on - week. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some companies have slightly reduced production to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies plan to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market lacked effective drivers this week, with rubber prices fluctuating weakly. Imported rubber offers declined, and domestic rubber prices decreased. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. Yunnan's supply is delayed due to rain, while Hainan's output has improved but is still lower than usual. Overseas supplies to ports have decreased, but bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted. Tire companies' capacity utilization is recovering, but some companies may reduce production or conduct maintenance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,200 - 15,000, and the nr2507 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 2.48% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed down 0.43% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the summary part, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [14][18]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of May 23, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 785 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 23, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 199,540 tons, a decrease of 730 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 43,544 tons, a decrease of 26,713 tons from last week [26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of May 23, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - **Shanghai Rubber Basis**: As of May 23, the Shanghai rubber basis was 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of May 22, the 20 - rubber basis was 94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of May 22, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 62.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lumps was 54.05 (- 0.1) Thai baht/kg. As of May 23, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 112 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Price**: As of May 22, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [43]. 3.3.2 Import - In April 2025, China's natural rubber (including various types) imports were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.93% and a year - on - year increase of 41.64%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 24.25% [46]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [49]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of May 22, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a week - on - week increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some have slightly reduced production to control inventory [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, the cumulative tire exports were 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01%. Among them, the export of passenger car tires was 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.94%. From January to April, the cumulative export of passenger car tires was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.04%. The export of truck and bus tires was 410,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.43% and a year - on - year increase of 10.11%. From January to April, the cumulative export of truck and bus tires was 1.4897 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.45% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In April 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to April this year, the heavy - duty truck market sold about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [58]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 天然橡胶市场周报 4 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶期货利好情绪集中释放。进口胶市场报盘重心上移，贸易商交投氛围一 般，国产天然橡胶市场价格重心上调，期货盘面震荡走高，现货价格跟随盘面上调，持货商挺价 报盘，下游谨慎刚需采购，场内实单交投一般。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区逐步开割，近期云南产区多阴雨天气，原料产出较少，收购价格坚 挺；海南产区降水天气扰动持续，割胶工作开展不佳，新鲜胶水产出偏少，市场原料流通量表现 紧张，为保证正常生产所需，部分加工厂抢夺胶水情绪升温。上周青岛现货总库存延续小幅累库， 海外前期混合转标胶货源集中到港入库，保税库存累库较为明显，而下游企业基本消耗库存为主， 采购较为谨慎，进而使得青岛仓库整体出库率环比下降。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用 率环比大幅提升，多数半钢胎企业已恢复至常规水平但整体出货偏慢，库存延续增 ...

报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-12 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15025 | 405 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 12820 | 环比 405 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -790 | 60 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 70 | 25 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2205 | 0 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 151114 | 6658 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 47288 | -1921 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -10511 | 16561 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -2039 | 1677 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200500 | 0 | | | 20号 ...