1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was disturbed by heavy rain, which helped the rubber price continue to rise. The import rubber market reported an increase in offers. Traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, frequent rainfall has disrupted the raw material output rhythm, and the purchase price has remained firm. In Hainan, there is still local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply on the island has been slow. Driven by the significant rise in the futures and spot markets, the enthusiasm of some processing plants to scramble for raw materials has increased. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased month - on - month, but the moderate replenishment and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises have restricted the port's shipping rate, and the overall spot inventory at Qingdao Port has maintained an upward trend [9]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises this week have gradually increased to the normal level, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises to recover. Currently, the production schedules of enterprises tend to be stable. There is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the overall operation. Enterprises adjust production flexibly according to their own inventory and order situations. In the short term, the overall operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market in the producing areas was affected by heavy rain, which promoted the continuous rise of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported rising offers, traders rotated and added positions for arbitrage, and factories mainly waited and watched. The futures market fluctuated, and the spot offers of domestic natural rubber adjusted narrowly following the market. Downstream orders were weak, with cautious and rigid demand for procurement, and the enthusiasm for actual orders was limited [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan is affected by frequent rainfall, which slows down the raw material output rhythm and keeps the purchase price firm. Hainan still has local rain disturbance, and the increase in raw material supply is slow. Driven by the rise in the futures and spot markets, some processing plants are more enthusiastic about scrambling for raw materials. The spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage have increased, but the wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricts the shipping rate. In terms of demand, the production schedules of tire maintenance enterprises have gradually returned to normal, and the overall capacity utilization rate has recovered. The production schedules are stable, and there is an expected increase in orders in the middle and late part of the month, which is expected to slightly boost the operation. Enterprises adjust production according to their own situations, and the short - term operating rate is expected to fluctuate little [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,400 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Trends**: This week, the main futures price of Shanghai rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 3.13% week - on - week; the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed up with fluctuations, increasing by 2.3% week - on - week [12]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 790, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was - 20 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 186,640 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 36,691 tons, a decrease of 303 tons from last week [27]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis**: As of July 17, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of July 17, the basis of 20 - rubber was 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of July 17, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.5 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 48.55 (+1) Thai baht/kg. As of July 18, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 32.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from last week. As of July 17, the latex price in Yunnan was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 13,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [42][45]. - **Import Volume**: According to customs data, in May 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified natural rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [48]. - **Inventory at Qingdao Port**: As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade at Qingdao Port was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, with an increase rate of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, with an increase rate of 0.69%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber at Qingdao Port increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points [52]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. The production schedules of maintenance enterprises within the week gradually returned to normal, driving the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises to recover [55]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In June 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a slight month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May this year, and about 29% higher than the 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market was influenced by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber market offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher with an unstable center. Domestic natural rubber spot prices adjusted slightly, and downstream demand was weak [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, weather disturbances persist, and raw material acquisition is difficult with firm prices. In Hainan, the resumption of tapping is slow, and raw material supply is limited. Qingdao port's total spot inventory continues to increase significantly, with bonded warehouses slightly reducing inventory and general trade warehouses continuing to accumulate large amounts of inventory. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Next week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was driven by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher, and domestic spot prices adjusted slightly. Downstream demand was weak [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Yunnan has weather problems, and Hainan's tapping recovery is slow. Qingdao port's inventory is increasing. This week, tire enterprise capacity utilization decreased, and it will recover next week [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,900 - 14,500, and the nr2508 contract between 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 0.28% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.1% week - on - week [12]. - **Spread**: As of July 4, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 865, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was 10 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 4, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, a decrease of 3,110 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, an increase of 2,118 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - **Price and Basis**: As of July 3, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of 20 - rubber was 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last week, and the non - standard basis was - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [31][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of July 3, the price of field latex in Thailand was 54.5 (- 2.5) baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.55 (+ 1.4) baht/kg. As of July 4, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 6.6 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic**: As of July 3, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. - **Import**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [47]. - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%, and the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85% [51]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Start - up Rate**: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port exceeded expectations. Bonded warehouses continued to reduce inventory, while general trade warehouses saw significant inventory accumulation. The arrival of mixed rubber increased significantly, while downstream enterprise procurement remained at a normal low level, leading to an unexpected increase in general trade inventory. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprise production schedules are gradually returning to normal levels. Some enterprises increased production moderately to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises is expected to remain basically stable. The production schedules of all - steel tire enterprises are temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises after maintenance will boost the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,100 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 11,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber 9 - 1 was - 870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber 7 - 8 was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 165,045 lots, an increase of 8,658 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,457 lots, a decrease of 248 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 25,117 lots, a decrease of 9,856 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 9,112 lots, a decrease of 1,897 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,420 tons, a decrease of 260 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 31,349 tons, a decrease of 503 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was not specified in the form; the price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was not specified; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 329 yuan/ton, an increase of 187 yuan. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 68.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.95 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 63.77 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.92 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 47.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.55 Thai baht. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 145.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 11.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50.4 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.48%, an increase of 4.24 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.29%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.89 days, an increase of 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.42 days, an increase of 1.14 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, a decrease of 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, a decrease of 1.24 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.97%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.47%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points. [2] - The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.83%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.47%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (June 22 - 28, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. There were no red areas south of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 617,300 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons from the previous period, with an increase rate of 1.70%. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market saw macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices, leading to a continued increase in the center of rubber prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, rain has led to a shortage of raw materials and difficulties for processors in procurement, keeping raw material prices firm. In Hainan, although the weather is okay, the seasonal increase in raw materials has been slow due to previous typhoons, and the supply of latex cannot meet the production needs of processors, leading to intensified competition for raw material procurement. Last week, the total inventory at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded warehouses and an increase in general trade warehouses. Downstream factories' purchasing enthusiasm was low, and terminal procurement was mostly on - demand, with a decline in shipment volume compared to the previous period [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has shown mixed trends this week. Some enterprises have increased production to meet order demands, while others have suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production of all - steel tire enterprises is stable, and the resumption of production of some semi - steel tire enterprises has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the natural rubber market had macro - fluctuations and rising raw material prices. The import rubber market reported higher prices, and the domestic natural rubber market price center moved upward. The futures market was boosted by macro factors, but downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, resulting in weak trading [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually opening for tapping. Yunnan has a shortage of raw materials, and Hainan's raw material increase is slow. Qingdao Port's inventory has a mixed trend, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to be basically stable in the short term [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,600 - 14,200, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,450 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed higher with a weekly increase of 0.18%, while the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed lower with a weekly decrease of 0.33% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of June 20, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 20, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,840 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 32,256 tons, a decrease of 2,620 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis**: As of June 19, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of June 19, the basis of 20 - rubber was 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 164 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: - **Thailand**: As of June 19, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.3 (+1.7) Thai baht/kg. As of June 20, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 11.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 50.4 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic**: As of June 19, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from last week [42]. - **Imports**: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of June 15, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1400 tons or 0.23%. The bonded area inventory was 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; the general trade inventory was 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.44 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points [49]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a month - on - month increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%; from January to May, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared to April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared to 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight year - on - year increase of about 1% [58].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Qingdao region's imported natural rubber market is experiencing a weak oscillation after a price increase, with STR20 spot prices reported at $1770-$1785 per ton, up 3.51% from late April, and Thai mixed prices around 14,400 RMB per ton, up 1.55% [1] - In early to mid-May, the market saw price fluctuations due to rising overseas raw material prices, strong futures, and a weaker USD against RMB, which boosted domestic prices [1] - Despite the positive macroeconomic developments from US-China trade negotiations, tire manufacturers maintained a cautious purchasing stance, leading to a lack of market confidence and a subsequent price correction towards the end of May [1] Group 2 - As of mid-May 2025, natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased year-on-year by 16.78% in general trade warehouses and by 29.07% in bonded zones, influenced by lower purchasing activity from tire factories [2] - The market outlook for June suggests potential downward pressure on natural rubber prices due to increased upstream production and a seasonal decline in demand, with a focus on weather conditions affecting rubber tapping [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to weakening orders and uncertainties in the macro market, indicating that trading conditions may not improve significantly [5]

橡胶走势下跌，国内产区气候较好，开割推进，预计后期逐步放量，泰国逐步开割。青岛地区总库存持 续增长，短期市场仍需关注美关税政策影响，关税政策本质上对原料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路 径仍存在不确定性，预计天胶走势震荡偏弱。 瑞达期货：ru2509合约短线预计在14200-14800区间波动 全球天然橡胶产区逐步开割，近期云南产区受阴雨天气干扰，集中上量迟缓，原料价格维持高位；海南 产区降水天气改善，原料产出好转，但仍不及往年同期水平，当地加工厂原料维持加价收购状态。海外 货源到港量减少，保税库入库量环比下降，但买盘疲弱，出库动力不足，保税库仍处于累库状态；一般 贸易库存加速去库，轮胎企业产能利用率逐步恢复，带动青岛仓库提货量增加，出库率明显高于入库 率，近期青岛现货总库存呈现去库。需求方面，上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率环比继续提升，多数企业 排产逐步进入稳定状态，但个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅 度，少数企业将在月底存检修计划，或将对整体产能利用率形成拖拽。ru2509合约短线预计在14200- 14800区间波动，nr2507合约短线预计在12350-12800区间波动。 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 5.【4月全球轻型车销量同比增长6%至732万辆】据LMC Automotive最新发布的报告显示，2025年4月全球轻型车经季节调整年化销量为9,200万辆/年，维持 了3月的上升势头。从同比数据来看，当月市场再现强劲增势，销量增长6%达732万辆。中美市场均实现强势同比增长，而西欧市场则持续面临挑战。美国市场销 量在3月提前释放，而这股效应依然存在，4月销量受此推动再创佳绩。中国市场方面，受政府刺激措施的推动，销量依旧保持稳定。与中美市场表现形成反差的是， 由于欧盟消费者信心降至过去17个月以来的最低水平，西欧市场销量出现下滑。 Special report on Guot ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market lacked effective drivers, and rubber prices showed a weakening trend in a fluctuating manner. Imported rubber market offers declined, and factory procurement was average. The price of domestic natural rubber decreased, with the futures market weakening and the spot market following suit. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously, resulting in average market trading [7]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. In Yunnan, recent rainy weather has delayed the concentrated supply, keeping raw material prices high. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and raw material output has increased but is still lower than the same period last year. Local processing plants are still purchasing raw materials at a premium. Overseas supplies arriving at ports have decreased, and the inbound volume of bonded warehouses has declined month - on - month. However, due to weak buying, the outbound volume is insufficient, and bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted at an accelerated pace. Tire companies' capacity utilization is gradually recovering, driving up the提货 volume from Qingdao warehouses. The outbound rate is significantly higher than the inbound rate, and the total inventory of Qingdao spot decreased last week [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization of domestic tire companies continued to increase week - on - week. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some companies have slightly reduced production to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization. A few companies plan to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 15,000 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market lacked effective drivers this week, with rubber prices fluctuating weakly. Imported rubber offers declined, and domestic rubber prices decreased. Sellers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream buyers replenished stocks cautiously [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to harvest. Yunnan's supply is delayed due to rain, while Hainan's output has improved but is still lower than usual. Overseas supplies to ports have decreased, but bonded warehouses are still accumulating inventory. General trade inventories are being depleted. Tire companies' capacity utilization is recovering, but some companies may reduce production or conduct maintenance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,200 - 15,000, and the nr2507 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 2.48% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber closed down 0.43% week - on - week [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in the summary part, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [14][18]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of May 23, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 785 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 23, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 199,540 tons, a decrease of 730 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 43,544 tons, a decrease of 26,713 tons from last week [26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of May 23, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - **Shanghai Rubber Basis**: As of May 23, the Shanghai rubber basis was 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from last week [32]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of May 22, the 20 - rubber basis was 94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of May 22, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 62.75 (+1) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lumps was 54.05 (- 0.1) Thai baht/kg. As of May 23, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 112 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Price**: As of May 22, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [43]. 3.3.2 Import - In April 2025, China's natural rubber (including various types) imports were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.93% and a year - on - year increase of 41.64%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 24.25% [46]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 92,100 tons, an increase of 2.34%; the general trade inventory was 522,100 tons, a decrease of 1.25%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points [49]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of May 22, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a week - on - week increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points. Most companies' production schedules are becoming stable, but some have slightly reduced production to control inventory [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In April 2025, China's tire exports were 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, the cumulative tire exports were 2.6455 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01%. Among them, the export of passenger car tires was 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.94%. From January to April, the cumulative export of passenger car tires was 1.0461 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.04%. The export of truck and bus tires was 410,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.43% and a year - on - year increase of 10.11%. From January to April, the cumulative export of truck and bus tires was 1.4897 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.45% [55]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In April 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to April this year, the heavy - duty truck market sold about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [58]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber futures market was concentratedly released. The offer price of the imported rubber market moved up, and the trading atmosphere among traders was average. The price of the domestic natural rubber market also increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, and the spot price followed the upward trend. Sellers held firm on their offers, while downstream buyers made cautious purchases based on their rigid demand, resulting in average actual trading volume in the market [9]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting the tapping season. Recently, there has been a lot of rainy weather in Yunnan, resulting in low raw material output and firm purchase prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has disrupted tapping work, leading to low output of fresh latex and a tight supply of raw materials in the market. To ensure normal production, some processing plants are competing more aggressively for latex [9]. - Last week, the total inventory of spot rubber in Qingdao continued to increase slightly. A large amount of previously mixed rubber that was converted to standard rubber overseas arrived at the port and was stored in the warehouse. The bonded inventory increased significantly, while downstream enterprises mainly consumed their existing inventory and made cautious purchases, leading to a decline in the overall outbound rate of Qingdao warehouses [9]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly this week. Most semi-steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels, but overall sales are slow, and inventory continues to grow. The capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire enterprises is in a recovery phase. Some enterprises are facing increased sales pressure, their finished product inventory continues to grow, and orders are insufficient, resulting in overall production scheduling being lower than the pre-holiday average [9]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,450 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: Futures market sentiment was positive, with prices rising. Spot market prices also increased, but trading was average [9]. - **Supply**: Global production areas are starting tapping. Yunnan and Hainan are affected by weather, resulting in low raw material output and tight supply [9]. - **Inventory**: Qingdao's spot inventory continued to increase slightly, with bonded inventory increasing significantly and overall outbound rate decreasing [9]. - **Demand**: Tire enterprise capacity utilization increased, but sales were slow, and inventory continued to grow. All - steel tire production was below pre - holiday levels [9]. - **Strategy**: Provide short - term price fluctuation ranges for ru2509 and nr2507 contracts [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures increased by 1.95% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber increased by 2.51% [14]. - As of May 16, the spread between the September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 835 [23]. - As of May 16, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai rubber was 200,270 tons, a decrease of 230 tons from last week; the warehouse receipt of 20 - grade rubber was 70,257 tons, a decrease of 4,435 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - As of May 16, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - As of May 16, the basis of Shanghai rubber was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton from last week [33]. - As of May 15, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 174 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of May 15, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 61.75 (+2) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 54.15 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg [41]. - As of May 16, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 69 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - As of May 15, the price of latex in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [44]. - **Import** - In March 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 594,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.07% and a year - on - year increase of 20.64%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.6857 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.68% [47]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons, or 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.28 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1 percentage point; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.94 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [51]. - **Downstream** - As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [54]. - In March 2025, China's tire export volume was 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 1.9487 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [58]. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared to March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat performance [61]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information provided.

报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-12 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15025 | 405 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 12820 | 环比 405 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -790 | 60 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 70 | 25 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2205 | 0 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 151114 | 6658 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 47288 | -1921 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -10511 | 16561 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -2039 | 1677 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200500 | 0 | | | 20号 ...