Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [6][7]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a period of intensive policy implementation aimed at stabilizing growth, with monetary easing leading the way, followed by fiscal measures. This is anticipated to have a profound impact on the banking fundamentals in 2025 [2]. - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is expected to protect the banks' net interest margins, while the risk of deposit disintermediation is likely to be moderate [6]. - 2025 is projected to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties underpinned by supportive policies [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on two main investment lines: 1. High dividend and core index weight banks such as Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Merchants Bank (600036), and Industrial Bank (601166) [7]. 2. City commercial banks with strong fundamentals and regional advantages, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077), Chongqing Bank (601963), Jiangsu Bank (600919), Qingdao Bank (002948), and Shanghai Bank (601229) [7]. Interest Rate Adjustments - On May 20, 2025, the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points, and state-owned banks announced reductions in deposit rates across various terms [6]. - The first round of interest rate cuts in 2025 is expected to have a neutral impact on banks' net interest margins, with an estimated increase of 3.1 basis points for listed banks in 2025 due to the deposit rate adjustments [6][14]. Deposit Rate Trends - The report highlights a trend of decreasing deposit rates, with significant reductions observed since October 2024, particularly among smaller banks, which have been more aggressive in their rate cuts compared to larger banks [9][14]. - The overall decline in deposit rates is expected to lead to a more favorable structure for new deposits, thereby supporting banks' funding costs [6]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report anticipates a significant improvement in asset quality for banks in 2025, driven by policy support and better management of risks in key sectors such as real estate [2]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.43% in Q1 2025, reflecting a smaller decline compared to previous years, indicating a potential stabilization in margins moving forward [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The reduction in deposit rates is greater than expected, with the average reduction being 16 basis points, which is higher than the 10 basis points reduction in loan rates, indicating a clear regulatory support for interest margins [5] - The phenomenon of deposit disintermediation is expected to persist long-term, although the degree of disintermediation is weaker than last year due to manual interest compensation governance [2] - The average annualized yield for cash management products is 1.46%, which is higher than the actual interest rate for state-owned banks' 1-year deposits by 36 basis points, suggesting that wealth management products still have a comparative advantage over deposits [2] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - As of May 20, 2025, the LPR for 1-year and 5-year has been lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, with significant reductions in various deposit rates across state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank [5] - The new rates for different deposit types include a reduction in the current deposit rate to 0.05% and a 15 basis point reduction for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year fixed deposits [5] Market Impact - Short-term market expectations for interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, with limited immediate impact on bond market prices. However, in the medium to long term, the reduction in deposit rates may improve funding costs and lead to a decline in bond yields [3] - The improvement in funding costs is expected to enhance the ticket yield for banks, as previous constraints on allocation due to funding costs are alleviated [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are not in the latter stage but rather at the beginning of a long cycle, with regulatory support for interest margins and declining rates benefiting dividend stocks [6] - Key recommendations include city commercial banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as dividend-paying banks like Agricultural Bank and China CITIC Bank [6]