阿布扎比第一银行的分析师在一份报告中称，本次美联储会议的主要争论点可能在于，美联储距离结束 宽松周期还有多近。这些分析师表示，在这一点上仍将缺乏共识。这些分析师称，凯文·哈塞特——可 能是特朗普青睐的在5月份接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的人选——可能会为降息争取支持，但未 来几个月要求利率保持相对稳定的呼声越来越高。哈塞特曾表示，他会运用自己的判断，但也说过降息 有"充足的空间"。据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，货币市场价格反映出周三晚些时候降息25个基点的可 能性为89%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

（原标题：斯巴达资本首席经济学家：劳动力市场走弱或促美联储鸽派降息） 美股在混杂数据中保持韧性 圣诞行情成为推力 南方财经：首先我们先回顾一下截至 12 月 5 日一周美国股市的表现。尽管劳动力市场数据以及核心 PCE 通胀等经济指标表现各异，但 12 月第一周美股整体依然相当强劲。你认为推动市场保持韧性的主要因素 是什么？ Peter Cardillo：我认为市场之所以保持韧性，部分原因在于美联储大概率会降息25个基点，而且他们 这一次的态度可能会比以往更偏鸽派。这主要是因为劳动力市场正在走弱，我们从一些私人宏观指标中 也看到明显的疲软迹象。因此，美联储的预期叠加12月历来是股市表现较强的月份，使得市场进入了典 型的"圣诞行情"。 南方财经：那么，你现在最关注哪些板块？ 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 周蕊 纽约报道 2025年美联储最后一次议息会议即将来临。根据CME FedWatch数据，市场目前押注FOMC在12月会议 上降息25个基点的概率约为87%至 89%，显著高于一个月前。 当地时间12月3日，美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)发布的数据显示，今年11月美国私营部门意外减少约 3.2万个就业岗位， ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 12月4日，金价在盘中持续维持弱势，受避险需求降温与美元反弹共同影响，仍徘徊于4200美元下方， 并在本周低点之上保持震荡。市场风险偏好逐步改善，使贵金属的短线买盘动力减弱；与此同时，美元 自10月底以来的阶段性低位出现修正，也在短线形成反向压力。GTC泽汇资本认为，在风险资产维持积 极基调的背景下，黄金暂时缺乏强劲驱动力，但整体下行空间有限，宽松预期仍在为金价提供底部支 撑。 12月4日，金价在盘中持续维持弱势，受避险需求降温与美元反弹共同影响，仍徘徊于4200美元下方， 并在本周低点之上保持震荡。市场风险偏好逐步改善，使贵金属的短线买盘动力减弱；与此同时，美元 自10月底以来的阶段性低位出现修正，也在短线形成反向压力。GTC泽汇资本认为，在风险资产维持积 极基调的背景下，黄金暂时缺乏强劲驱动力，但整体下行空间有限，宽松预期仍在为金价提供底部支 撑。 近期数据表现继续强化市场对宽松周期的判断。11月私营部门就业录得3.2万意外下降，显著弱于预 期，叠加此前多项宏观指标显示经济动能放缓，强化了市场对于下周政策利率下调25个基点的押注。 GTC泽汇资本认为 ...

摘要全球最大黄金ETF--SPDRGoldTrust持仓报告显示，12月3日黄金etf持有量为1046.58吨，较上一交易 日减少1.72吨。周三(12月3日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4202.69美元/盎司，跌幅0.06%，日内最高上探至 4241.17美元/盎司，最低触4193.99美元/盎司。 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，12月3日黄金etf持有量为1046.58吨，较上一交易日 减少1.72吨。周三(12月3日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4202.69美元/盎司，跌幅0.06%，日内最高上探至 4241.17美元/盎司，最低触4193.99美元/盎司。 12月的市场焦点——美联储政策转向，正为这一趋势"添薪加柴"。当前CME美联储观察工具显示，交 易员押注12月降息25个基点的概率已达92%，较11月中旬的40%翻倍攀升。 更关键的是，主张低利率的凯文·哈塞特成为下一任美联储主席的概率高达85%，市场预期美联储将开 启更激进的宽松周期。 尽管黄金的传统定价逻辑已弱化，但实际利率下行仍会降低持有黄金的机会成本，叠加美元指数在降息 预期下跌破99关口(12月3日收报98.87， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold futures are in an upward trend, possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and upward trend with a cumulative increase of 2.54%. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle [7]. - Silver futures are in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and strengthening trend. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the gold price was volatile and upward, with a 2.54% increase. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, a weaker US dollar index, and continuous capital inflow. However, the upward momentum was restricted as the market had partially priced in the easing expectation before the December FOMC meeting. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle in the long - term [7]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level was 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level was 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 may continue high - level volatility in the short - term. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 930 - 940 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23][25][27]. Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend [31]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the silver price was volatile and strengthening. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, continuous depletion of global silver inventory, recovery of industrial demand, and large - scale capital inflow. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle in the long - term [31]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2602 was in short - term consolidation. The upper pressure level was 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2602 may strengthen in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a rebound, with prices approaching the $52.00 level, supported by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and positive technical indicators [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Silver prices have been on a three-day upward trend, nearing the $52.00 mark, with multiple tests of this resistance level [1]. - The market is reacting positively to the dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, particularly from New York Fed President John Williams, who indicated potential for further policy adjustments towards a more accommodative stance [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming December meeting has surged to 85.3%, significantly higher than the previous week's 50.1%, indicating a strong market expectation for easing [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Silver has broken above the 10-day moving average and is showing a healthy upward trend, with the daily RSI positioned above 50, suggesting continued bullish momentum [3]. - Key support is identified at $50.40, while the primary resistance level is at $54.50, which could become a target for bullish traders if the upward trend continues [3]. - The overall trend remains positive as long as prices stay above the 20-day EMA, indicating a sustained upward trajectory [3].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the lowest level in three years to support the nascent economic recovery [1][3] - The RBNZ's decision aligns with the majority of economists' predictions, emphasizing that the OCR reduction will bolster consumer and business confidence [1][3] - The RBNZ's forward guidance indicates an average OCR of 2.2% by the second quarter of next year, suggesting a 20% chance of further rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - Since the beginning of the easing cycle in August 2024, the RBNZ has been one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its peers, reducing the OCR by a total of 325 basis points [4] - The RBNZ forecasts GDP growth to accelerate by 2.8% annually in the 12 months ending March 2027, compared to only 0.5% in the previous year [4][5] - Inflation is expected to decrease from the current 3% to 2.1% by the third quarter of next year, reaching 2% a year later [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, predicting that inflation risks will persist into next year, leading some economists to believe that the easing cycle initiated in February may have come to an end [1] Group 1 - The number of segments with high inflation levels remains concerning, posing a substantial challenge to the Reserve Bank of Australia's narrative of "inflation easing" over the past few quarters [1] - Morgan Stanley economist Tom Kennedy suggests that the easing cycle is likely over, with the cash rate expected to remain at 3.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a downturn, with the Hang Seng Technology Index declining significantly, while innovative pharmaceutical stocks are performing well amidst a broader market weakness [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On October 31, the three major indices in Hong Kong fell, with the Hang Seng Technology Index seeing an afternoon drop of 2% [1]. - Technology stocks broadly declined, while innovative pharmaceutical stocks rose against the trend [1]. - The semiconductor sector weakened, with major stocks like Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC experiencing significant declines of over 7% and 5%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - According to recent research from China Merchants Securities, the combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and an unexpected end to balance sheet reduction is favorable for global risk assets [1]. - Despite hawkish comments from Powell increasing uncertainty around the rate cut path, the trend towards easing is clear, suggesting that current market dips may present buying opportunities [1]. - The institution anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in December and three additional cuts in the following year, which is more aggressive than market expectations [1]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The institution believes that the dual easing policies from the US and China will benefit risk assets, with Hong Kong stocks expected to enter a "slow bull" market due to strong foreign capital inflows [2]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF is currently valued at 23.50 times earnings, which is approximately 32.84% below historical averages, indicating a safety margin for investors [2]. - The report suggests focusing on leading internet technology companies, high-end manufacturing related to AI, AI-related power sectors, and selectively investing in innovative pharmaceutical stocks [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on October 28-29, but the government shutdown has led to the absence of key economic data, creating a more ambiguous policy-making environment [1] - Fed officials are inclined to adopt a "slow and steady" approach under incomplete information, potentially lowering interest rates by 25 basis points to continue the easing cycle while avoiding directional errors [1][2] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that a prolonged shutdown could not only delay data releases but also impact data collection, making decision-making increasingly difficult [1] Group 2 - The lack of official data complicates the assessment of whether the labor market is weakening, demand is slowing, and the persistence of inflation shocks, according to Fed Governor Waller [1] - Local Fed voices reflect a cautious rate-cutting tone, with St. Louis Fed President Bullard suggesting support for a rate cut if labor market weakness continues and inflation expectations remain anchored, while cautioning against excessive easing before inflation is fully contained [1] - Boston Fed President Collins acknowledged that balancing inflation control and labor market easing is more challenging in the absence of data [2]