Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December of the previous year [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Rate Cut Expectations - A survey of 107 analysts indicates that 105 expect a 25 basis point cut, while only 2 anticipate a 50 basis point reduction [2]. - Notable financial journalist Nick Timiraos also predicts a 0.25 percentage point cut due to recent employment growth slowing [3]. Political Context and Voting Dynamics - The meeting occurs during a politically charged environment, potentially leading to unprecedented voting divisions within the FOMC [5][8]. - The political influence from the Trump administration has intensified, with recent appointments and judicial interventions adding complexity to the voting landscape [8][9]. FOMC Statement and Dot Plot Insights - Analysts expect the FOMC statement to acknowledge labor market weaknesses, with potential changes in language regarding employment risks [10]. - The updated dot plot will provide insights into officials' expectations for future rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs forecasting two cuts in 2025 [12]. Market Reactions and Historical Performance - Historical data shows that various asset classes typically perform positively around the time of rate cuts, with stocks often rising in the months following a cut [17][20]. - JPMorgan predicts a 0.5% to 1% increase in the S&P 500 index if a dovish 25 basis point cut occurs, but warns of a potential 3-5% pullback later in the month [16][17]. Tactical Trading Insights - The market tends to react with a "knee-jerk" rise in stocks immediately after the FOMC announcement, but this is often reversed before the close [23]. - In contrast, bond prices tend to maintain their gains following a dovish FOMC meeting, with upward momentum persisting for several trading days [23].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is highly anticipated, with a consensus among analysts that a 25 basis point rate cut is likely, marking the first cut since December of the previous year [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - A significant majority of analysts (105 out of 107) expect a 25 basis point cut, while only 2 predict a 50 basis point cut [1]. - The meeting is seen as potentially signaling the start of a new easing cycle, with attention on whether the FOMC statement will reflect increased risks in the labor market [3][7]. - The updated dot plot will indicate officials' expectations for the number of rate cuts this year, with speculation on whether it will remain at two or increase to three [3][8]. Group 2: Political Context and Voting Dynamics - The current political climate is described as unusual, leading to a potentially unprecedented voting split within the FOMC [3][4]. - The voting dynamics may include factions advocating for a significant cut (50 basis points), a moderate cut (25 basis points), or maintaining the current rate [4][5][6]. - Political pressures, including interventions from the Trump administration, have added complexity to the voting process, potentially influencing individual members' positions [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Historical Performance - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically show positive returns around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks averaging a 5% increase over 50 days post-cut [13]. - Market reactions to the rate decision are expected to vary, with a 25 basis point cut likely to boost the S&P 500 by 0.5% to 1% [12]. - The report outlines potential market movements under different scenarios, indicating that a dovish cut could lead to a 0.5% to 1% increase in the S&P 500, while a hawkish stance could result in declines [12][13]. Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs projects three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with a potential for further cuts in 2026 [10]. - The median dot plot is expected to show a total of two cuts in 2025, with the possibility of additional cuts if the labor market deteriorates more than anticipated [10][11]. - The focus will be on how the Fed balances employment concerns against inflation, with implications for future monetary policy direction [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, amidst concerns of weak employment, persistent inflation above target, and increasing political pressure [1][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, marking the first cut since December of the previous year, with 105 out of 107 analysts predicting this outcome [1]. - The potential for a "four-way split" in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting is discussed, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates or maintain them [1][5][9]. - The FOMC statement and dot plot will provide insights into the Fed's future rate cut expectations, with speculation on whether the statement will acknowledge rising employment risks [4][8]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Recent employment data has shown significant weakness, with a downward revision of 910,000 jobs over the past year, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut [6]. - The labor market's deterioration has made it easier for officials to agree on a 25 basis point cut, although debates on the pace of future cuts remain complex due to ongoing inflation concerns [6][7]. - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decision-making process, with potential implications for the voting dynamics within the FOMC [5][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with a potential for two additional cuts in 2026, bringing rates down to the 3%-3.25% range [11][12]. - Market reactions are expected to vary based on the outcome of the Fed's decision, with a 47.5% probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut potentially leading to a 0.5%-1% increase in the S&P 500 index [13]. - The market is advised to prepare for potential volatility, with key economic data releases in the coming weeks that could influence investor sentiment [13].

Group 1 - US stock market closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching both intraday and closing all-time highs [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Amazon up 1.44%, Meta up 1.21%, Apple up 1.12%, and Microsoft up 1.07%, while Nvidia fell 0.04% [1] - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, increased by 4.5%, closing with a market capitalization of $3.04 trillion, becoming the fourth US publicly traded company to surpass a $3 trillion market cap [1] Group 2 - Tesla shares rose 3.6% after CEO Elon Musk purchased 2.57 million shares for approximately $1 billion [1] - Nuclear power stocks saw significant gains, with Oklo up 15.7%, Nano Nuclear up 13%, and Uranium Energy up 10.6% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 0.87%, and notable gains from Li Auto (over 6%), Bilibili (over 5%), NIO (over 4%), and XPeng (over 2%) [1] Group 3 - Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.45, or 0.67%, closing at $67.44 per barrel [1] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures increased by $0.61, or 0.97%, closing at $63.30 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.9%, closing at $3,719.5 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,724.9 per ounce [2]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan indicates that the Bank of Indonesia is likely to remain cautious and wait for further stabilization in the foreign exchange market before resuming interest rate cuts in October [1] Economic Outlook - The recent domestic political situation has led to increased volatility in the Indonesian rupiah, as noted by economist Jin Tik Ngai [1] - Despite the central bank maintaining the policy rate in the upcoming meeting, the weak macroeconomic fundamentals suggest that the easing cycle will continue [1] - Significant slowdown in manufacturing output and other economic data support this perspective [1] Interest Rate Projections - JPMorgan has adjusted its previous forecast for a 25 basis point cut to a hold on rates in the upcoming meeting [1] - The firm maintains its year-end target for the benchmark interest rate to be reduced to 4.25% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks during the easing cycle [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that U.S. employment and inflation data fell short of expectations, leading to an increased expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, which has positively impacted the prices of metals such as copper, gold, and aluminum [1]. - The focus remains on various metals including copper, gold, silver, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and cobalt, alongside a continuous recommendation for technology-related new material stocks [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal industry index saw a weekly increase of 3.76%, ranking fifth among sectors [4]. - The precious metals sector experienced a weekly increase of 5.13%, while industrial metals and small metals also showed positive performance [4]. - The report notes that the largest weekly gain was observed in Shenzhen Xinxing, which rose by 25.4%, primarily due to its business in aluminum grain refiners and lithium hexafluorophosphate [4]. - Conversely, Yian Technology saw the largest decline of 8.1%, attributed to weak demand in the new energy vehicle parts and consumer electronics sectors [4]. Metal Price Trends - The report indicates that the price of praseodymium oxide increased by 8.58% due to sustained demand from the new energy and rare earth magnet sectors, particularly in electric vehicles and wind power equipment [4]. - In contrast, dysprosium oxide prices fell by 1.50% due to weak demand in downstream industries and the gradual release of accumulated inventory [4]. - Copper inventory in major regions increased by 3,700 tons to 144,300 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 154,000 tons [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment is currently dominating the market, with a strong expectation of interest rate cuts influencing trading behavior [4]. - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, with the sector's valuation at historical low levels, providing a high margin of safety [4]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others for potential investment opportunities [4]. Specific Metal Insights - For aluminum, the report notes a slight decrease in inventory, indicating a potential turning point in the market [5]. - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring the response of aluminum consumption to price increases and the overall macroeconomic conditions [5]. - In the rare earth sector, the report maintains a positive long-term outlook, recommending companies involved in rare earth production and magnetic materials [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing to restart a rate-cutting cycle, diverging from other major central banks that are nearing the end of their easing cycles [1][2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points next week, with a cumulative reduction of nearly 70 basis points by the end of the year, and some institutions do not rule out a 50 basis points cut [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rate at 2% and lowered its inflation forecast for 2027 to 1.9%, with a 50% probability of a rate cut around mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank tightening its monetary policy, with potential for a rate hike by the end of the year despite domestic political uncertainties [1] - The Bank of Canada is expected to restart rate cuts next week due to weak economic conditions and rising unemployment, with two more cuts anticipated by January next year [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut rates by 25 basis points last month and is expected to cut again in October and by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing to restart its rate-cutting cycle, diverging from other major central banks that are nearing the end of their easing phases [1][2] - Market expectations indicate a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with a cumulative reduction of nearly 70 basis points by the end of the year, and some institutions suggest a possibility of a 50 basis point cut [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rate at 2% and lowered its inflation forecast for 2027 to 1.9%, with a 50% probability of a rate cut around mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank tightening its monetary policy, with potential for a rate hike by the end of the year despite domestic political uncertainties [1] - The Bank of Canada is expected to restart rate cuts next week, with two additional cuts anticipated by January next year due to economic weakness and rising unemployment [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut rates by 25 basis points last month and is expected to cut again in October and by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged, with various banks providing insights on potential future actions and economic conditions affecting this decision [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Several banks, including Scotiabank and HSBC, anticipate that the ECB will keep interest rates steady, with a cautious approach towards any future rate cuts [1][2]. - Bank of America suggests that ECB President Lagarde will mention the US-EU trade agreement while emphasizing flexibility without committing to future actions [3]. - Societe Generale predicts that the next rate cut may occur in the first quarter of next year, influenced by weakening inflation and increasing negative impacts from tariffs [4]. - UBS believes that the rate cut cycle may have ended due to large-scale fiscal stimulus measures being introduced in the EU, which are expected to support the economy starting next year [6]. - Danske Bank concludes that the easing cycle is likely over, with rates expected to remain unchanged until the end of next year due to unexpected growth and fiscal measures [7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and ECB's Position - Monex Group indicates that if Lagarde officially announces victory over inflation and signals the end of the current easing cycle, the euro may appreciate [8]. - French Foreign Trade Bank notes that a final rate cut of 25 basis points in December is possible, contingent on a more severe slowdown in the labor market than anticipated [9]. - Berenberg Bank highlights that the market is focused on how the ECB will respond to political turmoil in France, although Lagarde is likely to remain silent on this matter [10]. - ING suggests that the current rationale for the ECB's inaction is strong, but the market may be underestimating the possibility of another rate cut this year [11].

Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected U.S. PPI data has no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut next Wednesday being almost certain [1] Group 1 - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, indicates that the market pricing shows a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut if CPI data is also weak [1] - There are upward price risks due to tariffs, and the current level of policy tightening remains uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the easing cycle at a more moderate pace during the September meeting [1]