Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic situation in China and the implications of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the potential decline in tariff levels and its impact on trade dynamics [5][8]. Deep Dive - The macroeconomic analysis by Zhao Wei emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of China's economic landscape and future outlook, particularly in light of recent global events [6][7]. Hot Topics - The article analyzes the ongoing debate regarding U.S. tariffs, suggesting that the scale of tariffs may decrease by 25% under baseline scenarios, which could significantly affect trade relations [8]. - The Supreme Court's deliberations on the legality of "countervailing tariffs" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are highlighted, with various justices expressing differing views on the extent of executive power in imposing tariffs [8]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article identifies three main factors contributing to the recent rise in inflation, indicating that the impact of internal competition is limited, and other external factors are more influential [11]. - It discusses the necessity of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions through a combination of policy tools to support economic growth [12]. - The recent resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and stronger-than-expected ADP employment figures are noted as positive developments for the U.S. economy [16][19]. Economic Insights - The article points out the challenges in the economy, such as overspending in commodity demand and investment drag, while also noting the recovery in service consumption and easing debt pressures as positive signs [20]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is mentioned, indicating shifts in consumer behavior regarding savings [22].

Core Points - The U.S. government has signed an executive order to eliminate "reciprocal tariffs" on certain agricultural products starting November 13 [1] - The products affected include coffee, tea, tropical fruits, juices, cocoa, spices, bananas, citrus fruits, tomatoes, beef, and some fertilizer products [1] - The adjustment is influenced by trade negotiations with partners and current domestic demand and production capacity [1] Economic Context - Rising inflation pressures have been a significant factor in the government's decision to adjust tariffs [1] - Recent electoral losses for the Republican Party indicate voter dissatisfaction with rising prices [1] - The anticipated impact of a record federal government shutdown is expected to weaken U.S. economic growth in Q4 [1] Price Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a rising trend, increasing from 2.3% in April to 3% in September [1] - Specific price increases noted include over 10% year-on-year for beef, coffee, and tea in September [1]

1、核试验表态：特朗普称美国将开展核武器试验，但拒绝透露是否包含核弹头引爆；美能源部长此前 曾表示相关试验不涉及核爆炸。 2、关税政策调整：特朗普签署行政令，将部分农产品移出 "对等关税" 清单，新政策已生效；同时计划周五签署命令，降低牛肉、番茄等食品杂货关税，以缓解民生商品价格 压力。 3、爱泼斯坦案应对：特朗普要求司法部调查爱泼斯坦与克林顿、萨默斯及摩根大通的关系，同 时指责民主党借此事转移对政府停摆问题的关注。 4、空管人员薪资补发：11 月 14 日，停摆期间坚守 岗位的空管人员收到 70% 补发薪资，剩余部分将逐步发放；特朗普与交通部长提议为全勤空管人员发 1 万美元奖金。 5、俄乌冲突表态：特朗普表示，他希望乌克兰冲突能尽快得到解决。 6、评价欧洲： 在专访中称，受移民潮与财政政策影响，欧洲已 "不再是原来的欧洲"。 7、大豆出口预测下调：美国农 业部受特朗普政府委托预测，2025/26 市场年美国大豆出口量同比降 13%，因美国大豆涨价让南美廉价 供应更具竞争力。 8、BBC 纠纷进展：特朗普律师团队要求 BBC14 日前撤回涉其的 "拼接内容纪录片" 并道歉赔偿，否则索赔至少 10 亿美元，截 ...

新华社华盛顿/日内瓦11月14日电（记者施春 焦倩）美国白宫网站14日发布美国与瑞士贸易谈判框架 协议联合声明。根据声明，美国对进口自瑞士的产品征收的关税税率将从目前的39%降至15%。 瑞士联邦委员兼经济和教研部长帕姆兰率团于13日赴华盛顿与美国贸易代表格里尔举行贸易谈判。作为 框架协议的一部分，瑞士企业承诺对美投资2000亿美元，其中2026年投资额将达670亿美元。 两国表示将加快推进贸易协议谈判进程，计划于2026年初最终完成谈判。 美国7月底宣布调整对多个贸易伙伴征收的所谓"对等关税"税率，其中对瑞士的税率达39%。新关税税 率于8月7日正式生效。瑞士政府对此发表声明说，美关税措施对以出口为导向的瑞士经济造成巨大压 力，瑞士约18%的出口商品销往美国，其中近六成受到此关税影响。 瑞士对美出口产品主要包括手表、药品、巧克力和化妆品等。瑞士机械和电气工程行业协会14日表示， 美国对瑞士产品的关税降至15%仅仅消除了瑞士生产商相对于欧盟或日本生产商的巨大劣势，绝不意味 着警报解除。（完） ...

Market Performance - On November 14, U.S. stock indices experienced a collective drop at the opening, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 quickly narrowing their losses, while the Dow Jones continued to decline significantly [1] - By the close, the Dow Jones fell by 0.65%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.05%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.13% [1] Company Movements - Bridgewater Associates sold 65.3% of its Nvidia shares, reducing its holdings from 723,000 shares to 251,000 shares, making Nvidia one of its top sells [5] - Oracle's stock rose over 2%, while Nvidia and Microsoft saw gains of over 1%. In contrast, Netflix dropped over 3%, and both Intel and Amazon fell by over 1% [2] - SoftBank Group liquidated all its Nvidia shares, cashing out $5.83 billion, while Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang has sold over $1 billion worth of Nvidia stock since June [5] Analyst Ratings - Citigroup maintained a "buy" rating for Nvidia, raising its target price from $210 to $220 per share, addressing investor concerns regarding AI capital expenditure [5] - Analysts noted that despite worries about AI investment funding, the supply of AI chips will remain below demand until 2026 due to limited advanced packaging capacity [6] - Nvidia's current price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 28, which is more attractive compared to its peers Broadcom at 38 and AMD at 37 [6] Commodity Prices - International gold prices saw a significant drop, with spot gold falling over 3% during the day and closing down more than 2% [8] - Oil prices increased, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising by 2.15% to $59.95 per barrel, and Brent crude up by 1.97% to $64.25 per barrel [8] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin experienced a notable decline, dropping below the $95,000 mark, with a current price of approximately $94,800, reflecting a nearly 5% decrease [9]

当地时间11月14日，美股三大指数开盘后集体跳水。不过，纳指与标普500指数跌幅迅速收窄，其中纳 指翻红，而道指跌幅仍较大。 截至收盘，美股三大指数涨跌不一，道琼斯指数跌0.65%，标普500指数跌0.05%，纳斯达克综合指数涨 0.13%。 当地时间周五（11月14日），全球最大对冲基金之一桥水向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了截至 2025年第三季度末的持仓情况报告，即13F表格。 文件显示，截至2025年9月30日，桥水整体持仓规模 桥水抛售65%英伟达股票 金价暴跌，油价大涨 个股方面，甲骨文涨超2%，微软、英伟达涨超1%，奈飞跌超3%，英特尔、亚马逊跌超1%。值得注意 的是，开盘时英伟达一度跌超3%，特斯拉一度跌超4%。 为255亿美元，较二季度末的248亿美元有所增加。原本排在第三大持仓的英伟达跌至第六。数据显示， 桥水三季度减持了近472万股，这也让英伟达登上了桥水的"Top Sells"榜单。 截至三季度末，桥水持有 251万股英伟达，数量相较于二季度末的723万股降低65.3%。 此前，孙正义的软银集团已宣布清仓所有英伟达股票，套现58.3亿美元。值得注意的是，英伟达创始人 黄仁勋自己也在 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the adjustment of tariffs by the U.S. government, specifically the exclusion of certain agricultural products from additional tariffs under the "reciprocal tariff" executive order signed by President Trump [1] - The updated tariff exemptions and potential adjustments for "allied partners" will take effect on November 13, 2025, at 12:01 AM Eastern Time [1] - The U.S. has reduced tariffs on Swiss products from 39% to 15% following trade negotiations between Swiss officials and U.S. trade representatives [1] Group 2 - The executive order reflects an assessment of domestic product demand and capacity, as well as recommendations from government agencies [1] - The Swiss Federal Council announced the tariff reduction after negotiations held on November 13, 2023, aimed at lowering import tariffs on various Swiss goods [1] - Since August 7, 2025, the U.S. had imposed a 39% import tariff on Swiss products, which has now been significantly reduced [1]

Core Points - The U.S. White House announced an executive order signed by President Trump on November 14, adjusting the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" by excluding certain agricultural products from additional tariffs previously imposed under the "Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order" [1] - The executive order states that the adjustments are based on assessments of domestic product demand and capacity, as well as recommendations from government agencies, in response to the "national emergency" declared in the original order [1] - The updated tariff exemption list and potential adjustments for "allied partners" will take effect on November 13, 2025, at 12:01 AM Eastern Time [1] - The order also mandates modifications to the "U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule" and the processing of potential tariff refunds [1] - On the same day, the Swiss Federal Council announced a reduction in U.S. tariffs on Swiss products from 39% to 15% following trade negotiations [1] - The negotiations, led by Swiss Federal Councillor and Minister of Economic Affairs Parmelin, aimed to lower the current 39% import tariff on numerous Swiss goods, which has been in effect since August 7, 2025 [1]

迫于选民日益增长的物价压力，特朗普政府不得不调整贸易政策。 据央视新闻，当地时间11月14日周五，美国白宫公布总统特朗普签署的最新行政令，进一步调整"对等 关税"的适用范围，将部分农业产品排除在此前依据《对等关税行政令》所征收的附加关税之外。 上述豁免措施将减少这些大宗商品的贸易征税。这一行政令意味着，特朗普间接降低了牛肉、番茄、咖 啡和香蕉等农产品的关税，旨在降低美国民众购买日常商品的成本。 白宫表示，这些商品在美国国内无法以足够数量生产以满足需求。政府列出的豁免产品清单包括数百种 食品，涵盖椰子、坚果、牛油果和菠萝等。关税减免追溯至纽约时间11月13日凌晨起生效。 此举正值共和党在本月多场州和地方选举中失利，竞选对手强调了应对民生负担的政策主张。这也是对 特朗普关税政策给美国消费者增加价格压力的默认。CPI数据显示，9月美国消费者支付的咖啡价格较 上年同期上涨近20%。 咖啡价格同样大幅飙升。美国对巴西征收关税后，两国之间的贸易陷入停滞，期货市场最近创下新高。 据巴西行业组织Cecafé数据，在征税期间，美国对巴西咖啡豆的采购从8月到10月下降了50%以上。美 国国内咖啡产量微不足道，少数美国种植者也曾表 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% at 47,147.48 points, the S&P 500 down 0.05% at 6,734.11 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 22,900.59 points [1] - For the week, the Dow rose 0.34%, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.45% [3] Employment and Economic Data - The U.S. Labor Department postponed the release of the September employment report to November 21, affecting the economic data timeline [3] - Initial jobless claims are estimated to have slightly decreased from 228,900 to 227,500, indicating a stable labor market [3] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks rather than support the labor market [3] Corporate Layoffs - Verizon Communications is planning to announce a layoff affecting approximately 15,000 to 20,000 employees, marking the largest layoff in the company's history [5] - This layoff is part of a corporate transformation strategy under new CEO Daniel Schulman, potentially reducing the workforce by up to 20% from around 100,000 employees as of February [5] Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks - Oil prices increased due to heightened geopolitical risks, with WTI crude rising 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel [9] - The rise in oil prices was influenced by Ukraine's attack on a key Russian oil port and Iran's seizure of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz [9] - Energy stocks saw collective gains, with ExxonMobil up over 1%, Chevron up over 1%, and ConocoPhillips up over 2% [9][10] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia and Microsoft both rising over 1%, while Amazon and Google fell by over 1% and 0.78% respectively [7] - Google is adjusting its advertising strategy to comply with EU antitrust requirements, opting not to sell parts of its ad tech business [8]