Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The continuous decline of the urea futures price is mainly due to the uncertainty of exports and the real supply - demand pressure in the domestic market. The agricultural demand has entered the off - season, while domestic supply remains at a high level, with a daily output of about 190,000 tons and an upstream inventory of about 930,000 tons. - Although the current export policy is unclear, under the situation of sufficient domestic supply and low prices, exports can help relieve the pressure of high supply. However, it is necessary to prevent the urea price from rising too rapidly in the short term, which is not conducive to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. - It is recommended to pay attention to the long - buying opportunities after the price decline. (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 25, UR01 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35% from August 22; UR05 closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.39%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. The prices in Shandong and Shanxi also showed different changes, with Shandong down 40 yuan (- 2.30%) and 20 yuan (- 1.23%) respectively [1]. Spot Price - Domestic spot prices in different regions generally declined on August 25 compared with August 22. For example, in Henan, the price dropped 40 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 2.29%); in Hebei, it dropped 40 yuan to 1730 yuan/ton (- 2.26%); in Jiangsu, it dropped 30 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton (- 1.72%), while the price in the Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 89 yuan/ton on August 25, down 47 yuan from August 22. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 44 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S), melamine in different regions also remained stable [1]. Trading Information of the Main Contract - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1754 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1735 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1745 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1746 yuan/ton. The position volume was 222,940 lots [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that urea was fluctuating strongly due to export disturbances, while this week's view is that with exports finalized, urea has returned to the domestic fundamental situation [3] - Currently, the domestic supply of urea is abundant, with the daily average output rising to around 195,000 tons, the highest level in the same period. The overall demand is showing a downward trend, and the market sentiment is generally stable. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited, and the market is mainly weak [3] - India has tendered for 2 million tons of urea again, with a tender closing date of September 2nd and a shipping date at the end of October. Under the background of relaxed domestic exports, it has a certain boost to the domestic market sentiment [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Overview**: Market sentiment has been average since the weekend. The ex - factory quotes of urea in mainstream areas have risen, but the trading volume has been mediocre. The ex - factory quotes in Shandong have led the increase, and those in Henan have followed suit. The ex - factory prices in areas around the delivery area are weakly stable, and those in the Northeast are expected to decline. Overall, the short - term trend is weak, but the Indian tender provides some support [3] - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, focus on the bottom; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell put options on price declines [3] Chapter 2: Fundamental Data - **Core Data Changes** - **Supply**: In the 33rd week of 2025 (August 14 - 20), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%; that of gas - based urea was 75.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.13%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03% [4] - **Demand**: In the 34th week of 2025 (August 15 - 21), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64 percentage points. As of August 22, the urea demand of compound fertilizer sample production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,190 tons, a week - on - week increase of 270 tons or 29.35%. As of August 20, the pre - order days of domestic urea enterprises were 6.06 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 days or 3.66% [4] - **Inventory**: As of August 20, the total inventory of domestic urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons or 6.95% from the previous week. The sample inventory at ports was 501,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons or 7.97% from the previous week [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal stopped rising and declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 200 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 430 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton [4]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, go short on the 01 - 05 spread when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent export expectations have boosted the urea futures market, making it fluctuate on the strong side, and the spot price has followed suit. However, the new order transaction is average. There is still a large export space in July, and the subsequent implementation needs attention. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, with new capacity coming on - stream, the future urea supply - demand remains loose if the export does not exceed the 2023 level. The coal - based urea profit is okay, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will affect the international market, and the export dynamics should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - As of August 22, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1764 yuan/ton (-12). The small - particle ex - factory prices in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1760 yuan/ton (0), 1760 yuan/ton (-10), and 1760 yuan/ton (-20) respectively. The Shandong basis was - 4 yuan/ton (+2), the Henan basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8), and the Jiangsu basis was - 4 yuan/ton (-8) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of August 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Although Jiujiang Xinlianxin (520,000 - ton capacity) and Xinjiang Yihua (600,000 - ton capacity) started maintenance on August 20 for over 20 days, new capacity is being released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 22, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (-10), and the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 22, 2025, the export profit was 1249 yuan/ton (-42). In July, 570,000 tons of urea were exported, and there is still large export space. The Indian NFL issued a urea import tender, which will affect the international market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 22, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.84% (-2.64%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 46.60% (-3.22%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.06 days (-0.23). The downstream industrial demand is weak due to the military parade [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 22, 2025, the sample enterprise total inventory was 1.0239 million tons (+66,500), and the port sample inventory was 501,000 tons (+37,000). The upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1][2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The urea futures market has been falling for two consecutive days due to uncertainties in exports and real domestic supply - demand pressures. With agricultural demand in the off - season and domestic supply at a high level (daily production of about 190,000 tons and upstream inventory of about 860,000 tons), exports can help relieve the high - supply pressure. However, short - term excessive price increases should be guarded against as it may go against the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices. It is recommended to focus on long - position opportunities after price corrections. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices on August 21st: UR01 was 1764 yuan/ton (-12 yuan or -0.56% compared to August 20th), UR09 was 1737 yuan/ton (-14 yuan or -0.80%), UR05 was 1797 yuan/ton (-13 yuan or -0.72%). Spot prices in some regions also declined, e.g., in Henan and Jiangsu, it dropped by 20 yuan/ton or -1.12%. [1] Key Information on Trading - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1790 yuan/ton, the highest was 1794 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1762 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1764 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1773 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 205,717 lots. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. Downstream, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan was stable at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was unchanged at 5250 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it increased by 200 yuan/ton to 5300 yuan/ton (3.92% increase). [1] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities after price corrections. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the export policy not being relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, as the international urea price is relatively strong, and the domestic market shows a clear oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the market returned to fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Currently, the daily production and operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and the overall inventory is high. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, and although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, while the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1820 (-40), the Henan spot price is 1840 (0), and the FOB China price is 2942 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1764 (-12), the UR05 contract is 1797 (-13), and the UR09 contract is 1737 (-14). The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56 (-18), with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1% [4][6]. Inventory The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), including 0.968 million tons in factory inventory and 0.489 million tons in port inventory. The number of warehouse receipts is 3573 (0) [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E. - Production has also generally increased, and the apparent consumption has shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased over the years [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread for the 01 - 05 contract when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent market export expectations have boosted the urea futures to fluctuate strongly, and the spot price has been adjusted upwards, but the new order trading volume is average. Urea exports in July were 570,000 tons, with a large export space compared to the previously recognized export quota. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Future urea supply and demand may remain loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost support is average. The Indian tender will boost the international urea market, and the export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16][18][20] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][27] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The figures include compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][40][41] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent market export expectations have been boosted, driving up urea futures. Although there is still significant export space in July, the subsequent domestic demand drive is weak. With high - level urea production and high upstream inventory, future urea supply and demand may remain loose if exports do not exceed last year's total. The cost - side support is average, and the port inventory fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the follow - up export implementation and dynamic changes [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 19, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton (+63). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was - 87 yuan/ton (-63), the Henan basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63), and the Jiangsu basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 520,000 tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 600,000 tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20 [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 19, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 19, 2025, the urea export profit was 1290 yuan/ton (-32). India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. August is the export window period, and urea exports continue [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 19, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 43.48% (+1.98%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 49.82% (-11.28%); the urea enterprise's advance order days were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is weak, and the compound fertilizer factory mainly conducts rigid procurement [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 957,400 tons (+69,800), and the port sample inventory was 464,000 tons (-19,000). The port inventory fluctuates slightly [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for China's urea exports to India, driven by rising international urea prices and India's increasing import demand due to insufficient domestic production [6][12]. Group 1: Export Quantity Growth - Urea export quantity surged to 570,000 tons in July 2025, marking a significant increase and reaching a recent monthly high [7]. - Despite the growth in export numbers, China's direct urea exports to India remain restricted, limiting the overall impact on export demand [7]. Group 2: India's Rigid Urea Demand - Recent bidding prices in India have escalated from approximately $350 per ton at the end of 2024 to nearly $530 per ton, indicating a potential profit margin exceeding 100% for Chinese urea exports [8]. - India's urea production has declined from 2.497 million tons in March 2025 to around 2.2 million tons in April-May 2025, while import demand is expected to rise by 2-3 million tons throughout the year [12]. Group 3: Cost Support for Urea Production - The production profit for gas-based urea has turned negative, while coal-based urea production remains profitable [18]. - The potential for easing export restrictions could provide support for gas-based urea prices, given the current high export profits [18].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market, analyzing the reasons for the rapid increase in urea futures prices and providing trading suggestions [3] Key Points Market Performance - As of the mid - session on August 19, 2025, the main urea futures rose rapidly, with a gain of more than 3% [3] Influencing Factors - According to the latest market news, China is preparing to supply fertilizers, rare - earth materials, and tunnel excavators to India [3] - A new round of Indian tenders requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, and the time is tight, approaching China's export window period on October 15. China exported 570,000 tons of urea in July, with a cumulative export of 640,000 tons from January to July. The second - batch export quota is 1.5 million tons. It is expected that the export volume will be high from July to August, and the concentrated export will occur from August to September [3] Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals provide limited support. The new round of Indian tenders guides the sentiment of the spot market. The spot trading in the mainstream areas improved yesterday. The short - term price rebounds from the bottom. For unilateral trading, be cautious about chasing up. Hold the previous long positions, and for those not yet entered the market, wait for the price to pull back and then layout long positions for distant contracts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, and the spot price has stabilized due to the release of the Indian tender and export news. However, the subsequent domestic demand drive is not obvious, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. There is still a large export space for urea in July, and the subsequent implementation needs to be monitored. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the future supply - demand is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The Indian tender and demand will boost the international urea market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1754 yuan/ton (+17). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+30), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (+13), in Henan was - 14 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was - 14 yuan/ton (+13) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 52 million tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 60 million tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20, but with the release of new production capacity, the future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 18, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+30), and the export profit was 1321 yuan/ton (-49). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Urea exports continued in August, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. India's NFL issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. The urea export in July was 57 million tons, and there is still a large export space compared with the previously recognized export quota [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48% (+1.98%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (-11.28%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is affected by the parade, with melamine and panel factories expected to reduce production. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the finished product inventory has accumulated, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90) [1]