Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the urea futures market first rose and then fell. Affected by the high price of the Indian tender and the opening of exports to India, the market soared and then declined. The downstream's ability to bear high prices is insufficient. Although there is demand resilience, there is no willingness to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being. It is mainly based on replenishing stocks at low prices. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer factories, the downside space for urea is limited, and it will mainly undergo weak consolidation in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, affected by the rising futures price, the Indian tender price, and export news, the trading atmosphere in the urea spot market was hot, and the spot price increased. In the second half of the week, the export situation was less than expected, and the downstream support was insufficient, so the price stabilized and declined. Since the weekend, the downstream trading has been mediocre, and the price has mainly been adjusted downward [3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume of the main contract last week was 15.6933 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 163,000 tons; the open interest was 5.7222 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 370,600 tons. After the Indian tender price increased and China opened the export of urea to India, the futures price soared to a high of 1,791 yuan/ton, but then the export volume was less than expected, and the futures price corrected. Last week, the decline of urea futures was weaker than that of the spot, and the basis weakened [5] Urea Supply - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly output of urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.87%; the average daily output was 189,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 tons. It is expected that no enterprise's equipment will be shut down next week, and one shut-down enterprise will resume production. As of August 11, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,700 tons, and the operating rate was 81.62% [12] Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat compared to the previous week. As of August 8, the quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, with an increasing operating load. Sales are mainly based on pre-sales orders, and the finished product inventory in the factories is continuously increasing. Due to the general bearish sentiment in the market and the lack of preparations for large-scale inventory replenishment by compound fertilizer factories, the purchase of raw material urea is mainly based on buying at low prices and making appropriate replenishments. At present, the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. From August 1 to August 7, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and 2.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From August 1 to August 7, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 61.1%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period and 11.85 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, the number of shut-down and maintenance equipment increased during the week, and the downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the operating load will continue to decline in the short term [17] Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 3.24%, and 563,300 tons higher than the same period last year. During the week, the urea output decreased, and the downstream's low-price purchasing increased, so the inventory in the urea factories decreased. It is expected that the urea inventory will continue to decline next week. The inventory of the port samples was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As the export goods gradually left the port, the port inventory decreased [19] International Market - China will export a limited quantity of urea to India, with an expected export volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. The price of the IPL Indian tender is higher than the market expectation, and India's demand for urea is still increasing. It is expected that a new tender will be launched in September. Except for India and Brazil, the demand in other global markets has declined to varying degrees. It is expected that the international urea price will have a correction trend before the new demand from these two countries emerges. As of August 8, the FOB price of small-grain urea in China was reported at $460/ton, a week-on-week increase of $50/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was reported at $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $512.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $457.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton. As of August 8, the FOB price of large-grain urea in China was reported at $467.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $30/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in Egypt was $502.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $12.5/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Arabian Gulf was $456.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Baltic Sea was $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $15/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $465/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7.5/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was reported at $446.5/ton, a week-on-week decrease of $12.5/ton [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Indian urea tender price and the number of bids have increased significantly, and Chinese urea is expected to be exported to the Indian market [1] - Currently, there is basically no agricultural demand, and the compound fertilizer industry is producing based on sales, with some enterprises entering the maintenance period. The downstream demand for compound fertilizers is expected to increase month - on - month, but it is difficult to drive up the urea price significantly, only providing some support [5] - The current spot market is relatively weak, and it is expected that the policy pressure to restrict exports is relatively small. Near the contract roll - over period, one should seize the medium - term opportunities brought by short - term rhythm fluctuations [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: From August 1st to August 28th, 2025, the weekly average daily output of urea increased from 18.98 tons to 19.86 tons. Last week, 4 new enterprises stopped production, 4 stopped enterprises resumed production, and this week, it is expected that 0 enterprises will plan to overhaul, and 1 stopped enterprise will resume production [5] - **Demand**: Agricultural demand has basically ended. In the 32nd week of 2025 (August 1 - 7), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.82 percentage points. The compound fertilizer start - up rate is slowly increasing. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative thermal power generation in China was 2940.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Later, with the rise in temperature, the consumption of urea for thermal power denitrification will increase [5] - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 88.76 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly this cycle [5] - **Valuation**: The production cost of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi urea factories remained stable at 1300 yuan/ton, and the production profit was also stable, with the current profit at a reasonable level [5] - **Strategy**: The futures market focused on the impact of the Indian urea tender on the domestic market last week. The Indian urea tender price increased significantly, and the number of bids, winning bids also increased significantly. There are rumors in the market that China can directly supply 20 - 30 tons of urea to India. The domestic urea spot market sentiment rose to some extent, but the weakness of the domestic spot market remained unchanged, and the spot price dropped to around 1700 yuan/ton near the weekend [5] 3.2 Price - **Domestic Urea Spot Price**: Provided historical price trends of urea in Henan, Sichuan, Shanxi large - particle, and Shanxi small - particle regions from 2021 to 2025 [7][8] - **International Urea Price and Spread**: Presented historical data on small - particle urea (Shandong factory port collection profit), small - particle urea (Middle East - Shandong factory port collection cost), small - particle urea (China) FOB price, and small - particle urea (Middle East) FOB price from 2021 to 2025 [10][11] - **Phosphate and Potash Fertilizer Prices**: Showed historical price trends of Hubei monoammonium phosphate, Hubei diammonium phosphate, and Shandong 60% powdered potassium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - **Urea Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - month Spread**: Displayed historical data on the urea futures 09 contract price, urea futures 9 - 1 spread, and urea 09 contract basis from 2021 to 2025 [15][16] 3.3 Supply - **Urea Output**: Provided historical data on the weekly average daily output of urea, natural - gas - made urea, and coal - made urea from 2021 to 2025 [18][19] - **Urea Cost and Profit**: Showed historical data on anthracite lump, bituminous coal prices, Shanxi fixed - bed process marginal profit, and Henan new - process marginal profit from 2021 to 2025 [21][22] - **Urea Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: Presented historical data on urea enterprise inventory, urea port inventory, domestic average daily apparent consumption of urea, and enterprise - perspective average daily apparent consumption of urea from 2021 to 2025 [24][25] 3.4 Demand - **Compound Fertilizer Industry**: Provided historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise start - up rate and compound fertilizer inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29] - **Melamine Industry**: Showed historical data on melamine weekly output, melamine price, and melamine/urea price ratio from 2021 to 2025 [30][31] - **Export**: Presented historical data on China's monthly urea export volume and monthly cumulative urea export volume from 2021 to 2025 [32][33]

作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 尿素周报2025/7/18 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 关注出口变化 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量有所下滑；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥秋季预收开 | | | 偏多 | 始，开工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，关注出口政策变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 偏多 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言出口指导价提高，新一轮出口额度释放，但目前并不大幅放开出口的确定消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业收单平稳，成交不温不火。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移，出口需求支撑当前尿素价格。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步提升； ...

，部分尿素企业库存加速下降，虽然局部尿素库存增减不一，但整体库存仍以下降为主，但当下尿素企业 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 库存远高于往年同期。前期出口订单执行进入后期，尿素整体去库速度或减弱，不过出口预期存在，对价 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 格仍有支撑。UR2509合约短线建议在1750-1830区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level and enterprise inventory still around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 17, compared with July 16, UR01 increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.58%), UR05 by 3 yuan/ton (0.17%), UR09 by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), and Shanxi remained unchanged [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 17, compared with July 16, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%), Hebei by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), Northeast by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 had an opening price of 1733 yuan/ton, a high of 1747 yuan/ton, a low of 1731 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1743 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1740 yuan/ton, and a position of 198,012 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1743. The supply pressure of urea is large, and the subsequent turnaround depends on exports [1].

中信建投期货能化研究员刘书源表示，近期国内尿素期现货价格同步上涨，是出口刺激、成本支撑与政 策扰动等因素共振的结果。7月8日，印度RCF尿素招标最低价为495美元／吨（东海岸），折合国内出 厂价为3300元／吨，与国内主流地区的现货价1800元／吨存在1500元／吨的差距。虽然首批配额订单基 本签完，且出口不能流向印度，但前期出口政策已经放松，较高的出口利润带动市场情绪升温，支撑国 内贸易商集港出口意愿。 上周，国内尿素现货价格大涨。截至7月10日，多地报价上调10~30元／吨不等。7月12日，国内部分企 业尿素报价上调5~20元／吨。与此同时，尿素期货价格同步上涨，市场看涨情绪升温。 新湖期货尿素研究员姚瑶表示，近一周尿素主销市场现货价格自1750元／吨上涨至1800元／吨以上，期 货价格也有所上涨，国际和国内市场均有利多因素。 国际方面，姚瑶分析称，最近一轮印度招标价大幅高于市场预期，东海岸价格达到495美元／吨。受印 标上涨等消息影响，中东和北非主销市场价格跳涨至480美元／吨左右，而近期公布的国内小颗粒尿素 出口指导价也达到440美元／吨，相当于主产区3000元／吨左右的现货价格。 "此外，尿素市场还 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea price has boosted the sentiment of the domestic market. Although the current industrial demand is weak, export orders are still being shipped, and there is a partial increase in agricultural demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The nitrogen association has announced the export guidance price for urea. Overall, the international price is rising, and the domestic urea sentiment is also high. Supported by factory export orders and ongoing port collection, the futures market still has support and will remain mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low, with a late - day plunge but still closing up. The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The daily production of urea changed little, and some previously overhauled devices were expected to resume production, increasing output. Both agricultural and industrial demand were cautious in purchasing, mainly for replenishing inventory as needed. Agricultural demand was better than industrial demand, and it was expected to end in the Northeast and North China this month. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, with only a slight increase. The factory was in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, mainly clearing inventory, and was waiting and seeing, purchasing urea only as needed. Despite weak industrial demand, export orders were being shipped, and inventory was continuously decreasing. The nitrogen association announced the export guidance price for urea. The market was expected to be mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1777 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 1,642 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,140 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed [2] - **Spot**: The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei factories ranged from 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7] - **Supply Data**: On July 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.63% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From July 4th to July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On July 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 400 compared to the previous trading day, with 400 more in Meishan Xindu [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be noted, but the subsequent turnaround depends on exports. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with upstream inventories close to 1 million tons. Although the top - dressing demand in July will support prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.81%. UR05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1694 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.12%. UR09 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, a relative change of 0.53% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - In Henan, it remained unchanged at 1780 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.56%; in the Northeast, it remained unchanged at 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.55% [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.89% [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1707 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1693 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1710 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 238,027 lots [1].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1697（-31/-1.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 172-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1710 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 9 日，尿素行业日产 20.51 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.64 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.62 万吨；今日开工 89.18%，较去年同期 82.62%回升 6.56%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报报价跌幅扩大，成交一般。山 东地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商 出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低， 出厂报价大幅跟 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was weak and ex - factory prices fell collectively. This week's view is that demand still lacks support and ex - factory prices are running weakly. Market sentiment remains weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are stable with a downward trend [4]. - The daily output remains above 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The domestic supply is large, the demand is declining, and the urea enterprises are in the inventory accumulation stage again. The ex - factory price of urea has fallen to around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the market is pessimistic about the future, remaining weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of next week's Indian tender [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment is weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea in Shandong, Henan, and surrounding areas of the delivery area are expected to decline. The export details have been announced, but the domestic supply is large, and the overall demand is declining [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 22nd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0604), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 92.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%; that of gas - based urea was 78.15%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 85.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21% [5]. - Demand: In the 23rd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0605), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from last week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer dropped to 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 6.67% from last week. As of June 6, 2025, the urea demand of Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1,180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 68.57%. As of June 4, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from the previous period [5]. - Inventory: As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from last week. The sample inventory of urea ports was 205,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weakly stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal fell, and the urea spot price fell. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 340 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 570 yuan/ton. The futures fell sharply, the basis was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread converged to 50 yuan/ton [5].