消息面上，市场预计日本央行将调整加息步伐；欧洲央行执委Schnabel的鹰派讲话，促使市场押注明年 加息；美联储影子主席哈塞特发表的不够鸽派的言论，同样打压明年降息预期。分析人士指出，市场几 乎已消化美联储本周降息的预期，但投资者认为其政策声明和主席鲍威尔的讲话可能暗示进一步降息的 门槛提高。 东方证券此前指出，本轮降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。该行看好2026年 美国电力投资对铜的需求，储能及替代需求对铝需求的拉动，以及工业金属价格大幅上行对通胀预期的 推动，建议重点关注铜铝金板块。 有色股跌幅居前，截至发稿，江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)跌6.57%，报33.56港元；洛阳钼业 （603993）(03993)跌6.27%，报17.93港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)跌4.73%，报10.88港元；紫金矿 业（601899）(02899)跌4.54%，报32.4港元。 ...

截至2025年12月8日 13:57，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)上涨0.50%，成分股中矿资源(002738)上涨6.64%，雅化集团(002497)上涨6.48%，国城矿 业(000688)上涨6.20%，盛新锂能(002240)上涨5.74%，赣锋锂业(002460)上涨5.45%。有色50ETF(159652)上涨0.64%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报1.57元。拉长时 间看，截至2025年12月5日，有色50ETF近1周累计上涨4.70%，涨幅排名可比基金1/2。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 流动性方面，有色50ETF盘中换手3.73%，成交1.27亿元。拉长时间看，截至12月5日，有色50ETF近1周日均成交1.80亿元。 值得一提的是，有色50ETF(159652)盘中获资金积极加仓，截至目前，该基金盘中已获净申购3000万份，按盘中成交均价估算，净申购金额已超4600万元。 东方证券认为，工业金属的超级周期或已来临，重点关注铜铝金板块。降息周期里供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹 性。上周铜、铝等金属价格明显上涨，尤其是周五晚LME 铜 ...

对铜铝等金属价格后续能否继续上涨存在疑问。本周(2025年12月1日-5日)受铜等金属价格大幅上涨带 动，有色金属板块明显上涨5.35%，领涨全部一级行业指数。随着铜价持续走高，投资者对于铜铝金等 金属价格是否已经处于高位，后续能否继续上涨的分歧明显增加。 铜板块：供给紧缺、关税担忧或持续推升铜价，继续看好铜价与冶炼费齐升 12月3日，LME铜库存仓单注销5.69万吨，占比总库存约35%，成为13年以来最大单日提货订单量，短 期内推升市场对铜现货供应紧缺的预期，使得铜价快速攀升。而智利国家铜业公司在26年长单报价中大 幅提升COMEX-LME铜溢价报价，也折射出对美国潜在关税政策及供应紧张预期。在传统输配电领域 与新能源用电等新兴领域对铜需求持续增加的背景下，供给紧缺局面有望为铜价中枢上行提供支撑。而 冶炼端，11月28日中国铜原料联合谈判小组(CSPT)宣布，为推进铜产业高质量发展以及落实"反内卷"相 关政策要求，成员将执行降低26年矿铜产能负荷10%以上等自律性措施。该行认为，铜矿端与冶炼端供 需矛盾或在"反内卷"落地预期下获得缓解，冶炼费有望止跌企稳，该行继续看好中期铜价及冶炼费迎来 齐升局面。 智通财 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - A super cycle for industrial metals may have arrived, with a focus on copper and aluminum sectors. The report highlights that even small supply-demand gaps can lead to significant price elasticity during a rate-cutting cycle [9][13] - Copper prices have surged, with LME copper closing at a historical high of $11,655 per ton, driven by supply tightness and tariff concerns [9][13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from strong demand in energy storage, with projections indicating a need for 800,000 tons of aluminum materials due to the anticipated growth in storage battery production [9][14] - The gold sector is also viewed positively, with expectations for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by rising inflation expectations [9][15] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report indicates a significant increase in metal prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising sharply. The LME copper price increased by 1.88% recently, reflecting strong market conditions [9][13] - Supply constraints are evident, with LME copper warehouse cancellations reaching 56,900 tons, about 35% of total inventory, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in 13 years [9][13] - The report suggests that the copper and aluminum sectors will see continued price increases due to strong demand from traditional and new energy sectors [9][13][14] Steel - The steel sector is experiencing weak supply-demand fundamentals during the off-season, with a slight recovery in steel profitability noted [17] - Weekly rebar consumption decreased by 4.81% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in demand [21] - Overall steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3,355 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.16% week-on-week increase [38][39] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [46] - Nickel production and consumption trends are mixed, with refined nickel output in China showing a notable year-on-year decline of 12.20% [44][49] Price Trends - The report notes that lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 91,100 yuan per ton, down 2.36% week-on-week [51][52] - Cobalt prices have increased significantly, with sulfuric acid cobalt priced at 90,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 236.45% [51][52]