Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on the economic prospects but warns of persistent uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before any interest rate hikes [1][2]. Economic Assessment - The Bank of Japan's assessment of eight regions indicates a "moderate recovery or rebound" in the economy, although one region's evaluation was downgraded [1]. - Some businesses are delaying spending plans due to uncertainties surrounding tariff impacts, while others are facing upward pressure on wages due to labor shortages and rising costs [2]. Wage and Capital Expenditure Trends - There is a potential for continued wage growth driven by structural labor shortages, but the actual impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits is just beginning to manifest, complicating wage negotiations for the following year [1][2]. - Many companies plan to increase capital expenditures to optimize operations and meet IT demands, although some are postponing or reviewing their spending plans due to tariff uncertainties [2]. Monetary Policy Context - The next policy meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled for October 29-30, where the regional economic assessment will be a key reference for deciding whether to raise the current interest rate of 0.5% [1]. - The recent election of new Liberal Democratic Party president, who supports fiscal expansion and a loose monetary policy, may influence the Bank of Japan's stance on interest rates [2][3]. Market Implications - The new leadership's support for stimulus plans is expected to boost the stock market but may exert pressure on the yen [3]. - Expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's policies could support short-term government bonds, while long-term bonds may face challenges due to concerns over increased fiscal spending [3].

Group 1 - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is holding a presidential election on October 4, with five candidates competing for the position [1] - The candidates include current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, current Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, former Minister for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi, and former LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi [1][7] - Voting will begin at 1 PM local time, with the first round results expected around 2:10 PM, and if no candidate receives a majority, a final voting round will take place, with results anticipated by 3:20 PM [1] Group 2 - Candidate Shinjiro Koizumi advocates for reducing consumption tax, increasing defense budget, strengthening economic security, and tightening foreign relations policies, with a conservative political stance [8] - Candidate Yoshihide Suga focuses on addressing the impact of rising living costs on the economy, supports interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and emphasizes local revitalization, with a relatively moderate political stance [12] - Candidate Toshimitsu Motegi aims to lead Japan towards revitalization within two years, achieve wage growth exceeding inflation rates, and propose multi-trillion yen subsidies, also holding a relatively moderate political stance [13]

Group 1 - The average annual salary for employees and part-time workers in Japan's private sector increased by 3.9% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 4.78 million yen (approximately 228,100 RMB), marking the highest record since 1949 [2][4] - This marks the fourth consecutive year of salary growth, primarily driven by labor shortages and minimum wage increases [4] - The average salary for male employees rose by 3.2% to 5.87 million yen (approximately 280,100 RMB), while female employees saw a 5.5% increase to 3.33 million yen (approximately 158,900 RMB) [4] Group 2 - The average salary for formal employees is 5.45 million yen, which is about 2.6 times higher than that of non-formal employees at 2.06 million yen [4] - The average bonus in salaries increased to 750,000 yen, a 4.5% year-on-year growth, reaching the highest level in the past decade [4] - By industry, the "Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply, and Water Supply" sector leads with an average salary of 8.32 million yen (approximately 396,900 RMB), followed by "Finance and Insurance" at 7.02 million yen (approximately 335,000 RMB), and "Information and Communication" at 6.60 million yen (approximately 314,900 RMB) [5] Group 3 - The lowest average salary is found in the "Accommodation and Food Services" sector at 2.79 million yen (approximately 133,100 RMB) [5] - The source withholding tax amount was 11.1834 trillion yen, a decrease of 822.7 billion yen from the previous year, attributed to the fixed tax reduction policy implemented in 2024 [5] - The survey aimed to estimate tax revenue and was based on feedback from approximately 280,000 salary earners across 27,179 companies nationwide [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin highlighted that low unemployment rates, wage growth, and rising stock prices are supporting consumer spending [1] Group 1 - Low unemployment rates are contributing positively to consumer confidence and spending [1] - Wage growth is enhancing disposable income for consumers, further driving spending [1] - Rising stock prices are creating a wealth effect, encouraging consumers to spend more [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's exports have declined for the fourth consecutive month, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs under President Trump's trade policies, particularly affecting trade with the U.S. [1][3] Export Performance - In August, Japan's export value decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with automobiles and steel being the main contributors to this decline [1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 13.8%, with automobile exports falling by 28.4% and export volume down by 9.5% [3][4] - Exports to China decreased by 0.5%, while exports to Europe increased by 5.5% [3] Trade Balance - Japan's trade balance recorded a deficit of 242.5 billion yen (approximately 1.7 billion USD) [3] - The import value fell by 5.2%, which was worse than the consensus expectation of a 4.1% decline [3] Economic Implications - The ongoing decline in exports poses risks to Japan's fragile economic growth, potentially disrupting the desired cycle of inflation, wage growth, and overall economic expansion [3] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese companies, particularly in the automotive sector, may lead to cost-cutting measures that could suppress profit margins and wage growth [3][4] U.S. Trade Relations - Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. was 324 billion yen, indicating ongoing pressure from the U.S. to reduce this gap [5] - The recent trade agreement, which includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese automobiles, may provide some relief, but its effectiveness will depend on Japan's commitment to invest 5.5 trillion yen as part of the agreement [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll report for insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a slight decline in the dollar observed [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's strategist McKinney notes that moderate job growth does not necessarily indicate a slowdown in the labor market due to a slowdown in immigration growth [1] - Investors should focus on the unemployment rate and wage growth for clearer indications of the Federal Reserve's next steps [1]

Core Insights - The average net salary in Bosnia and Herzegovina in June 2025 is reported to be 1570 marks, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.25% but a year-on-year increase of 14.26% [1] - The purchasing power has increased by 46.87% compared to ten years ago, indicating a significant improvement in the economic conditions [1] Salary Disparities by Industry - The computer programming and consulting sector leads with a net salary of 2755 marks, while the clothing manufacturing sector has the lowest net salary at 1064 marks [1] - The IT industry experienced a year-on-year salary decline of 7.03%, contrasting with the clothing manufacturing sector, which saw a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [1] Long-term Salary Trends - From 2015 to 2025, gross salaries have risen from 1295 marks to 2435 marks, reflecting a cumulative increase of 88.1%, which demonstrates steady economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina [1] - Current salary fluctuations are primarily influenced by seasonal adjustments and industry transformations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that wage growth has slowed down but remains above inflation levels [1] Group 1 - Wage growth has shown signs of deceleration, suggesting a potential easing in labor market pressures [1] - Despite the slowdown, wages are still increasing at a rate that outpaces inflation, which may influence consumer spending and economic stability [1]

Group 1 - The overall core inflation is largely in line with the target set by the European Central Bank [1] - Most long-term inflation expectations are around 2% [1] - Labor costs are continuing to trend towards moderation [1] Group 2 - Wage growth is expected to further slow down [1] - The economic outlook faces downside risks [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that overall core inflation is in line with targets [1] - Labor costs continue to ease, indicating a potential slowdown in wage growth [1] - Wage growth is expected to further decelerate, which may impact consumer spending and economic growth [1]