临近2025年年底，展望2026年，宏观经济整体将呈现稳中有进的特点。随着稳经济增长的宏观政策逐步 落地显效，2026年我国经济数据预计将有所改善，本轮渐进式牛市行情在2026年也可能进一步延续，从 而形成更强的赚钱效应，让更多投资者通过资本市场获得财产性收入，这有利于拉动社会消费品零售总 额的回升。随着内需增长，物价有望逐步回升，预计2026年CPI将保持正向增长，而PPI也有望逐步实现 从负增长到正增长的转变。这反映出在当前需求不足的情况下，政策方面将更加积极，在财政政策上， 2026年可能会出台更多积极的财政政策来拉动内需，包括拉动投资、促进消费，从而稳住物价、稳住经 济增速。在外贸方面，虽然受到外部环境不确定性的挑战，以及贸易摩擦可能出现的反复等不确定性影 响，我们依然要坚定信心，在出口增速放缓的背景下，通过优化出口产品结构、提升附加值，有望实现 利润增长。 2024年9月24日开始，我国出台了一篮子权益类资产的重磅政策，资本市场也应声而起，开启了这轮慢 牛长牛行情。2025年，上证指数一度突破4000点指数关口，进一步确定了这轮慢牛长牛行情的走势。股 市的回升带来了较强的赚钱效应，也吸引了场外资金入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, at the 8th Member Conference of the China Securities Association has positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a rebound in the capital market and enhancing investor confidence, which is crucial for the market's development in 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current bull market is characterized by a significant increase in trading activity, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor participation [2][8]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark, reflecting a preliminary formation of a slow bull market, which is expected to solidify investor confidence [2][8]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Wu Qing emphasized the need to moderately relax capital constraints for high-quality securities companies and optimize regulatory mechanisms, which is vital for the high-quality development of the securities industry [1][7]. - The integration and collaboration among securities firms through mergers and acquisitions are seen as essential steps towards creating "carrier-level" brokerages, which will alleviate competitive pressures and enhance industry quality [1][7]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable trend of household savings shifting towards the capital market, with nearly 25 million new stock accounts opened by the end of November 2025, and monthly account openings exceeding 2 million in some months [3][9]. - The issuance of equity funds has surpassed that of fixed-income funds, with new fund subscriptions reaching 1.06 trillion units in the first 11 months, indicating a shift in asset allocation among residents [3][9]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The current bull market is expected to drive three key missions: promoting consumer spending, improving household balance sheets through wealth effects, and providing efficient financing platforms for innovative enterprises [4][10]. - The healthy development of the capital market is crucial for supporting the real economy and technological innovation, with recent successful IPOs of prominent companies laying a foundation for future growth [4][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend of capital inflow from both domestic and foreign investors is anticipated to accelerate as the market transitions from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market by 2026 [5][11]. - The performance of brokerage stocks, typically a market barometer, is expected to improve in 2026 as macroeconomic policies take effect and investor confidence strengthens [6][12].

12月5日，《人民日报》刊发中国证监会主席吴清的署名文章，文章提出要提高资本市场的制度包容性与适应性，并提出一系列举措。文章强调，应准确把 握提升资本市场制度包容性与适应性的内涵和主要原则，更好服务新质生产力发展的迫切需求，同时促进发展成果惠及广大人民群众，切实提高居民财产性 收入。当前，我国拥有超过2亿股民、7亿基民，通过提升资本市场发展质量，广大投资者可借助投资优质股票或优质基金获得财产性收入，形成财富效应， 这是提振消费的有效手段，也是推动资本市场高质量发展和金融强国建设的要求。建立健全功能完善的资本市场，是落实新"国九条"的重要任务。一个繁荣 的资本市场，是建设金融强国的必由之路，也是提升我国资本市场核心竞争力与国际影响力的关键所在，将为我国经济持续增长提供更强支撑，并有利于推 动本轮慢牛长牛行情延续。 自去年9月24日政策转向以来，我国出台了一系列稳增长的重磅政策，市场也应声启动一轮牛市行情。今年上证指数突破4000点关口，进一步确立了本轮慢 牛长牛的格局。我曾指出4000点可能并非本轮牛市终点，而是新一轮行情的起点，而临近年底，正是布局2026年行情的重要时机。吴清主席在年底这一关键 时间窗口于《 ...

今年开启的这轮牛市行情，不是一个短期的行情，也不是到4000点就结束的行情，而是一轮慢牛长期行 情，有可能会持续两到三年以上。而现在，大盘到4000点左右出现一定的多空分歧也是正常的。正是因 为存在多空分歧，那反而说明行情并没有结束。因为行情结束的时候往往是一致预期的时候，华尔街有 句名言叫"一致的时候是最危险的时候"。当所有人都积极看多、拼命看多，那么这时候行情才会真正的 见顶。而多空分歧大，说明市场行情还是在上涨的过程之中，还有很多人没有看多，也就是说后续还会 有很多增量资金进来。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 今年开启的这轮牛市行情，不是一个短期的行情，也不是到4000点就结束的行情，而是一轮慢牛长期行 情，有可能会持续两到三年以上。而现在，大盘到4000点左右出现一定的多空分歧也是正常的。正是因 为存在多空分歧，那反而说明行情并没有结束。因为行情结束的时候往往是一致预期的时候，华尔街有 句名言叫"一致的时候是最危险的时候"。当所有 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, indicating significant divergence between bulls and bears as investors take profits towards year-end [1][2] - This bull market is characterized by a "dumbbell" structure, with low valuation, high dividend sectors like banks driving the index up, while tech innovation sectors such as AI and semiconductors show strong performance [2][3] - The current bull market is supported by policy initiatives and capital inflows, with A-shares and H-shares being seen as undervalued compared to US stocks, attracting global investment [3] Group 2 - The ongoing bull market is expected to stimulate consumer spending, with a potential shift from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market by 2026, enhancing consumer confidence and economic growth [4] - The evolution of the bull market is anticipated to follow a sequence where tech stocks lead, followed by mid-cap stocks, and finally traditional sectors, with a focus on balanced portfolio allocation [5] - In the tech sector, the demand for computing power is expected to rise, with significant partnerships highlighting the strategic importance of computing infrastructure, suggesting investment opportunities in related technologies [6][7]

Economic Overview - The national economy showed stable performance in October, with a positive trend in recovery, as indicated by the CPI turning positive, suggesting a rebound in demand [1] - Industrial production continued to grow, with the industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month [1] Industrial Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors performed well, with their added value growing by 8% and 7.2% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [1] Service Sector - The service sector production index increased by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with notable growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (13%), leasing and business services (8.2%), and financial services (5.6%) [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with urban and rural retail sales growing by 2.7% and 4.1%, respectively [2] Consumer Trends - Jewelry consumption surged by 37.6% year-on-year, driven by rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver [2] - Online retail maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% from January to October [2] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with real estate development investment dropping significantly by 14.7% [3] - Manufacturing investment continued to grow, providing some support to overall investment levels [3] Trade Dynamics - The total value of goods imports and exports increased by 0.1% year-on-year in October, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports rising by 1.4% [4] - The trade agreement between China and the US may stabilize exports in the future, although the export structure needs optimization [4] Price Trends - The CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, indicating a recovery in domestic demand, while the PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight easing of deflationary pressure in the industrial sector [4] Market Outlook - The overall economic operation in October was stable, with ongoing transformation and upgrading, particularly in high-tech industries [5] - The capital market has reached a significant milestone, potentially attracting more household savings into the market, which could support economic growth [5] - A sustained bull market could enhance consumer confidence and spending, contributing positively to economic recovery [5]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but turned positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 4010.73 points, breaking the 4000-point mark [1] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closed down by 0.22%, 0.44%, and 0.15% respectively, at 3988.22 points, 13430.1 points, and 3229.58 points [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors included shipbuilding, JD Finance, and synchronous reluctance motors, while precious metals, fourth-generation semiconductors, and combustible ice saw significant declines [1] Individual Stock Performance - Out of 2366 A-shares, 71 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 2908 stocks declined, with 10 stocks hitting the daily limit down [2] - The total trading volume reached 2.15 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 940.76 billion yuan and the Shenzhen market for 1.207 trillion yuan [2] Economic Outlook - The chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, Yang Delong, stated that the 4000-point mark is not the end of the current market cycle but rather the beginning of a new phase [2] - The ongoing market is still in the first half of a bull market, with expectations for the technology sector to continue its upward trend [2] - The current bull market is anticipated to last for two to three more years, characterized as a "slow bull" market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant drop in U.S. stock markets, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell nearly 4% due to Trump's threats to raise tariffs in response to China's stricter rare earth export controls [1] - Concerns about deteriorating trade relations between major powers and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has lasted for 10 days without resolution, are increasing fears of a potential recession in the U.S. economy [1] - The failure of the U.S. Senate to pass a budget proposal for the seventh consecutive time has not shown any signs of progress in negotiations between the two parties, impacting employment and economic growth [1] Group 2 - The negative impact of the U.S. stock market decline is expected to affect A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly on the first trading day after the National Day holiday, which may see significant market shocks [2] - Despite the recent bull market in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with the index approaching 4000 points, there are signs of adjustment, especially among previously high-performing technology stocks [2] - The current bull market is supported by economic transformation, policy support, and a significant shift in household savings, suggesting that the bull market may continue [2] Group 3 - For investors, short-term hedging strategies may involve reducing positions, while long-term investors can maintain their holdings despite short-term volatility [3] - The performance of technology stocks in the long term will depend on their ability to meet earnings expectations, despite short-term market adjustments influenced by external factors [3] - The overall market remains within a controllable bubble level, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks still below historical average valuations, indicating potential for continued growth in certain sectors supported by policy [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices closed down on October 10, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.9%, the S&P 500 down by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 3.56% [2] - Major U.S. tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Broadcom dropping nearly 6%, Tesla over 5%, Amazon close to 5%, and Nvidia down by 4.89% [2] - Chinese concept stocks also faced declines, with NIO and Kingsoft Cloud falling over 10%, Bilibili down over 9%, and Baidu and Alibaba dropping over 8% [2] Economic Factors - The primary reason for the market downturn is the threat from Trump to significantly increase tariffs in response to China's stricter rare earth mineral export controls, raising concerns about deteriorating trade relations between major powers [2] - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 10 days, contributing to fears of a potential recession in the U.S. economy [2] - The Senate has failed to pass a budget proposal for the seventh consecutive time, showing no signs of progress in negotiations between the two parties [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market now anticipates a 98% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in October, with a focus on boosting employment over controlling inflation [3] - It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower rates in December [3] Impact on Other Markets - The significant drop in U.S. stocks is likely to negatively impact the A-share and Hong Kong markets, particularly on the following Monday's market opening [3] - Despite the recent downturn, the A-share and Hong Kong markets have shown signs of a bull market, with the A-share index breaking the 3900-point mark after the National Day holiday [3] Long-term Market Sentiment - Short-term market shocks are unavoidable, but the long-term performance will depend on whether tech stocks can meet earnings expectations [4] - The current bull market is supported by deep-rooted logic, including a significant shift in household savings, suggesting it may continue for an extended period [4] - Investors are advised to take profits on previously high-performing tech stocks and reduce positions while maintaining confidence in the long-term outlook [4] Valuation Insights - U.S. stocks are at historical highs, while A-share and Hong Kong stocks, despite recent gains, remain below historical average valuations, indicating a relatively controlled market bubble [4] - Traditional blue-chip stocks have not performed well in this rally, with only localized bubbles appearing in certain stocks [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, initiating a new rate cut cycle for the year, with expectations of two more cuts by the end of the year [1] - The current federal funds rate is now between 4% and 4.25%, driven by disappointing non-farm employment data and inflation falling below 3% [1] - Powell's statement indicated that this rate cut is a "risk management" measure rather than the start of a continuous rate cut trend, marking a shift from his previously hawkish stance [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices initially surged but then quickly retreated, while the dollar index experienced a significant drop before rebounding [2] - Chinese concept stocks saw substantial gains, and gold prices surged, with spot gold exceeding $3,700 per ounce, reaching a historical high [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $5,000 per ounce, aligning with the long-term bullish outlook on gold prices [2] Group 3: Global Monetary Policy Implications - The Fed's rate cut may trigger a wave of rate cuts from global central banks, including the People's Bank of China, which has room for monetary policy easing [3] - This easing could support the ongoing bull market in capital markets, with a trend of savings shifting towards equities and funds becoming more pronounced [3] - Investors are encouraged to increase their allocation to stocks and funds, while also considering a 20% allocation to gold assets for value preservation [3]