12月10日午盘，A股房地产板块直线拉升，华夏幸福、万科A、财信发展等多股涨停，特发服务、金地集团等跟涨。港股内房股走高，万科企业涨 超17%，融信中国、中国金茂、融创中国等涨超9%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0459 | 錢联控股 | 0.122 | 62.67% | 0.047 | | 2202 | 万科企业 | 3.890 | 16.47% | 0.550 | | 3301 | 融信中国 | 0.160 | 12.68% | 0.018 | | 1918 | 融创中国 | 1.400 | 12.90% | 0.160 | | 0813 | 世茂集团 | 0.227 | 11.82% | 0.024 | | 2330 | 中国上城 | 0.161 | 11.03% | 0.016 | | 3383 | 雅居乐集团 | 0.340 | 9.68% | 0.030 | | 9993 | 金辉控股 | 2.180 | 9.55% | 0.190 | 据上海证券报报道，10日，万科首个展期债券"22万科MTN0 ...

今日早参 2025 年 11 月 27 日 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 房地产开发/房地产服务：地方政府的房贷贴息实践效果如何？ 戚康旭 SAC:S0570524120001 陈慎 SAC:S0570519010002 SFC:BIO834 今日深度 固定收益：回归价值逻辑——2026 年 REITs 市场展望 明年 REITs 市场趋势性机会有限，基本面分化或将更明显，投资策略应回归 价值逻辑，建议精选基本面稳健、估值合理的优质品种。低利率环境下， REITs 作为多元化配置的重要工具，其在大类资产配置中的价值将进一步凸 显。分资产来看，稳健型资产的分派率与 10 年期国债之间的利差锚或将进一 步强化，基本面走弱的项目波动或加剧，OCI 账户仍对高分红的经营权 REITs 有较高配置需求。一级市场方面，发行规模预计将稳步增长，扩募持 续推进，投资人打新将回归理性，一级报价或应给二级市场留出缓冲空间。 风险提示： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant downward pressure on both volume and price, necessitating new policy measures to boost confidence [16][20] - Short-term policies such as mortgage interest subsidies and personal income tax deductions are expected to be implemented to alleviate the current market downturn [39] - The report highlights a potential for structural recovery in the housing market, particularly in first-tier cities, if purchasing restrictions are fully lifted [39] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate market is facing increased downward pressure, with sales volume and prices declining significantly. In October 2025, cumulative sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, and sales value dropped by 9.6% [16] - The report notes that the sales area for new homes in 45 cities totaled 2.72 million square meters, with first-tier cities experiencing a year-on-year decline of 43.19% [5] 2. Policy Directions - The report anticipates policy measures focusing on loosening purchase restrictions, providing mortgage interest subsidies, and implementing personal income tax deductions to stimulate demand [28][31] - There is a growing expectation for the central government to engage in large-scale market-oriented housing stockpiling to stabilize the market [37] 3. Stock Market and Credit Bonds - The A-share real estate sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.83%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed with a decline of 4.94% [41][53] - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 3,815.39 billion, with a net financing amount of -421.33 billion [41] 4. REITs Market - The REITs index experienced a decline of 1.12% this week, with transaction volumes decreasing by 8.80% [3][12] 5. Land Market - The report indicates a significant increase in land supply and transaction area across major cities, with a 92.79% increase in supply and a 24.37% increase in transaction area [4] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas within the real estate sector: commercial real estate (e.g., New Town Holdings, China Resources), property management (e.g., Greentown Service), and real estate brokerage (e.g., Beike, Wo Ai Wo Jia) [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence from market sentiment, suggesting that a reduction in industry risk assessment and increasing confidence in a medium to long-term recovery path are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. Despite a short-term acceleration in market decline, expectations for enhanced real estate policies in December and the first quarter of 2026 are strengthening the investment value of quality real estate stocks [2][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Expectations - Recent reports indicate that the Chinese decision-makers are considering a new round of real estate policies, including interest subsidies for new personal housing loans, increasing personal income tax deductions for mortgage payments, and further reducing housing transaction taxes. This has led to a rise in real estate stock prices. The effectiveness of such policies, particularly interest subsidies, is crucial for short-term market recovery, depending on the magnitude and duration of the subsidies [3][4]. Market Data - In October, the real estate market showed significant declines, with a 19% year-on-year drop in sales area (61.47 million square meters) and a 24% decrease in sales value (CNY 597.7 billion), marking the largest declines since the second half of 2024. New personal mortgage loans fell by 30% year-on-year to CNY 95 billion, and development investment decreased by 23% year-on-year. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the report emphasizes the need for substantial fiscal policies, such as interest subsidies, to restore market confidence [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks for investment: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Binjiang Group (002244, Not Rated), and Jindi Group (600383, Accumulate) [5].