Core Insights - AbbVie is set to release its earnings report on July 31, 2025, with current consensus estimates projecting earnings of $2.91 per share on sales of $15.03 billion, compared to $2.65 per share on sales of $14.46 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, AbbVie has experienced a negative one-day return following earnings announcements in 65% of instances, with a median decline of -1.3% and a maximum drop of -7.3% [3][7] - There have been 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 35% of the time; this percentage decreases to 17% when considering the last 3 years [7] Financial Metrics - AbbVie currently has a market capitalization of $333 billion, with $57 billion in revenue, $13 billion in operating profits, and a net income of $4.2 billion over the last twelve months [4] Trading Strategies - Traders can analyze historical probabilities and take positions before earnings releases, as well as examine correlations between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to adjust positions accordingly [6][8]

Conclusion Overview - The current Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF market shows significant differences among various funds in terms of scale, index tracking, investment strategies, and management fees. The Fuqun CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF stands out due to its scale advantage and liquidity, making it a popular choice for investors in the Hong Kong internet sector. In the innovative drug sector, the E Fund Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF demonstrates clear advantages in index tracking accuracy and understanding of industry trends, offering considerable return potential despite some volatility. Investors can select suitable investment targets based on their risk preferences and investment goals [2]. Top Ten Fund Scale - The largest Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF has a scale of 59.272 billion [4]. - Institutional investors hold a high proportion of shares, reaching 96.66%, indicating strong professional recognition of its investment value [4]. - The fund targets internet companies in the Hong Kong Stock Connect market, allowing investment without occupying QDII quotas, alleviating concerns about quota restrictions [4]. Fund Advantages and Disadvantages Fuqun CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF - Advantages: - Rapid scale growth, increasing by over 14 billion this year, nearly tripling since the beginning of the year [7]. - Diverse component stocks, including some pharmaceutical companies, which mitigates single-industry risk [7]. - High institutional investor preference, with 98.10% of shares held by institutions, mainly insurance funds and corporate annuities [7]. - Disadvantages: - Industry concentration risk due to heavy focus on the internet sector, which may significantly impact net value during systemic risks [5]. - Tracking error may occur during extreme market volatility, despite overall good tracking performance [5]. Other ETFs - The ICBC National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF has advantages such as rapid scale growth and good liquidity, but faces high competition and market risk sensitivity [9][10]. - The GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF focuses on unique sectors like securities and insurance, showing significant growth potential [11]. However, it is subject to policy risks and market volatility [12][13]. - The Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF benefits from high-quality component stocks and management experience but is sensitive to market fluctuations [21][22]. - The GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical and Health ETF focuses on the pharmaceutical sector, showing rapid growth and stability, but faces regulatory and R&D risks [26][27]. Summary Points 1. Industry Distribution and Risk Diversification: Different funds exhibit significant differences in industry distribution. For instance, the Fuqun CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF is concentrated in the internet sector, while the ICBC National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF includes technology and pharmaceutical sectors, offering better risk diversification [28]. 2. Performance and Scale Growth: The E Fund Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF has achieved outstanding performance with a net return of 99.05% this year, while the E Fund Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF shows long-term growth potential despite short-term volatility [28]. 3. Index Tracking and Investment Strategy: Each fund closely tracks different indices, such as the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index and the National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index. Investors should choose funds that align with their preferred sectors and clear investment strategies [28]. 4. Institutional Recognition and Management Experience: Many top-scale funds have received high recognition from institutional investors, such as those under Fuqun and ICBC. Additionally, funds managed by experienced companies tend to have advantages in index tracking and investment management, enhancing operational efficiency and returns [28]. Overall Consideration - Investors should comprehensively evaluate various factors when selecting Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs, aligning their choices with investment goals, risk preferences, and investment horizons to build a reasonable investment portfolio for stable asset appreciation [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Screw Star Rating" system, which helps investors determine market valuation and optimal investment strategies based on different star ratings. It emphasizes the importance of understanding when to buy or sell and how to mitigate volatility risks. Group 1: Screw Star Rating System - The "Screw Star Rating" is used to assess the overall market valuation [3] - The star ratings range from 1 to 5.9, with 5-5.9 indicating the best investment phase for stocks and funds, while 1-1.9 indicates a bubble phase [6][10] - The ratings are updated daily, providing investors with real-time insights into market conditions [4][9] Group 2: Characteristics of Each Star Rating - **5 Star - 5.9 Star**: Characterized by a high number of undervalued stocks, limited downside risk, and significant upside potential. Investor sentiment is often pessimistic, creating a buying opportunity [10][13][17] - **4 Star - 4.9 Star**: Fewer undervalued stocks are available, but some still exist. This phase requires careful risk management due to potential market volatility [26][30] - **3 Star - 3.9 Star**: Most stocks are either fairly valued or overvalued, presenting opportunities for profit-taking. This phase is marked by a scarcity of undervalued stocks [52][56] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In the 5 Star - 5.9 Star phase, investors should focus on allocating both existing and new funds effectively, maintaining positions even during downturns [19][21] - In the 4 Star - 4.9 Star phase, strategies such as dollar-cost averaging and diversification are recommended to manage volatility risks [33][37][45] - For the 3 Star - 3.9 Star phase, investors are advised to consider profit-taking as most stocks are not suitable for new purchases [56][59] Group 4: Historical Context - Historical data shows that during the 5 Star phase, significant market rebounds often follow, while the 4 Star phase typically precedes bear markets [14][30] - The article references past market bubbles, highlighting the rarity of 1 Star ratings, which indicate extreme overvaluation [62][66]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to release its earnings on July 29, 2025, with historical data indicating a pattern of negative one-day returns following earnings announcements, where the stock has decreased in 60% of cases with a median drop of -6.5% [2][3] Earnings Expectations - Analysts forecast earnings of $1.57 per share on sales of $20.85 billion for the upcoming quarter, representing a decline from $1.79 per share and $21.82 billion in revenue from the same quarter last year, indicating potential challenges for the company [3] Financial Performance - UPS has a market capitalization of $87 billion and generated $91 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $8.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Historical Earnings Reaction - Over the past five years, UPS recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring approximately 40% of the time, which drops to 25% when analyzing the last 3 years [7] Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and assess the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after earnings to guide their strategies [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan stated that there is no need to revise its current investment portfolio model, indicating that bond volatility has not impacted its investment strategy [1] Group 1 - GPIF maintains its investment strategy despite fluctuations in bond markets [1] - The current investment portfolio model is deemed sufficient and does not require adjustments [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the growing interest in precious metal trading, particularly in the context of global economic uncertainty, highlighting their dual commodity and financial attributes [1] - Investors are advised to prepare adequately before engaging in precious metal trading by understanding market dynamics, selecting appropriate trading platforms, and formulating sound investment strategies [3] Group 2 - Precious metal trading is categorized into four main types: spot, futures, ETFs, and online platform trading, with a detailed operational process outlined for online trading [4] - The company Jinsheng Precious Metals is positioned as an industry benchmark, emphasizing its compliance, safety, and efficiency through a comprehensive service system [5] - Jinsheng employs SSL encryption and multi-layer firewalls for technical security, ensuring rapid order execution and supporting automated trading systems for quantitative investors [6] Group 3 - The current market trends for 2025 indicate three key characteristics: gold driven by consumption upgrades and industrial applications, silver demand surging due to the photovoltaic industry, and platinum demand increasing due to the hydrogen revolution [7] - Jinsheng Precious Metals has introduced customized physical gold services and platinum contracts to cater to diverse investor needs and leverage market opportunities [7] Group 4 - The article suggests risk control measures such as diversifying asset allocation, dynamic hedging using futures, and ensuring compliance with regulations to mitigate market volatility risks [8] - Jinsheng Precious Metals aims to create a secure and efficient trading ecosystem for both novice and experienced investors, leveraging its regulatory backing and technological innovations [8]

投资者面对海量热点时，常常陷入一种知识焦虑。试图对每一个热点都深入研究，这本是积极进取的表 现，但人的精力与认知能力终究有限。当投资者在多个热点间反复跳跃，试图全面掌握所有信息时，往 往会发现每个领域都只是浅尝辄止，难以形成系统、深入的理解。这种表面的广泛涉猎，不仅无法带来 精准的投资决策，反而会在投资过程中产生负反馈，在市场的波动中更容易产生动摇，错失真正的投资 良机。 面对眼花缭乱的热点，有些投资者试图在诸多热点间反复切换投资策略。他们如同敏捷的猎手，看到哪 个热点有风吹草动，便迅速将资金转移过去。然而，这种频繁的操作看似灵活，实则暗藏巨大风险。市 场节奏变幻莫测，每个热点的兴起与衰退都有其内在逻辑，投资者很难精准把握每一个切换的时机。在 反复切换的过程中，往往会出现刚从一个热点抽身，该热点便继续上涨，匆忙进入的新热点，却因判断 失误而陷入调整的尴尬局面。最终，顾此失彼成为常态，资金在不断的折腾中逐渐缩水。 面对诸多热点，最正确的做法是把握最能理解的一个热点，并深耕其中。每个人的知识背景、投资经验 和兴趣爱好各不相同，这就决定了每个人对不同热点的理解程度存在差异。选择自己最熟悉、最擅长的 领域，意味着能够 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index Enhancement Strategy: Recommended for allocation as the excess environment is expected to be relatively strong [3] - CTA Trend Strategy: Recommended for allocation as the market environment is expected to be moderately strong [3] - CTA Arbitrage Strategy: Recommended for allocation as the market environment is expected to be moderately strong [3] 2. Core Views - Index Enhancement Strategy: Three indicators under Alpha significance and two indicators under Alpha stability are strengthening, and the indicator resonance intensity is in an upward range; the excess environment is expected to be relatively strong [3] - CTA Trend Strategy: In July, the investment win - rate is about 74% with a profit - loss ratio of about 2.8, higher than the historical average; 2 macro - environment factors and 3 commodity market factors are favorable [3] - CTA Arbitrage Strategy: In July, the investment win - rate is about 75% with a profit - loss ratio of about 3.0, higher than the historical average; 3 macro - environment factors and 2 commodity market factors are favorable [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Enhancement Strategy - Strategy Environment: Relatively strong [5] - Monitoring Framework: Under Alpha significance, trading volume is favorable; under Alpha stability, specific factors are not clearly marked as favorable or unfavorable [5] CTA Trend Strategy - Strategy Environment: Moderately strong, with a favorable factor ratio of 63% [5] - Monitoring Framework: Among macro - environment factors, export value (month - on - month growth rate) is favorable; among commodity market factors, market trend strength, market speculation degree, market rotation speed, and trading concentration are favorable [5] CTA Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy Environment: Moderately strong, with a favorable factor ratio of 63% [5] - Monitoring Framework: Among macro - environment factors, PPI year - on - year growth rate change rate, manufacturing PMI new order index, social financing scale stock year - on - year growth rate are favorable; among commodity market factors, market basis momentum, cross - variety spread change rate, and market spot - futures spread are favorable [5]

Core Insights - Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is expected to report earnings of $2.68 per share and sales of $22.86 billion on July 16, 2025, compared to $2.82 per share and $22.45 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $378 billion and reported $89 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with $22 billion in operating profits and $22 billion in net income [4] Historical Performance - Historically, JNJ has delivered positive one-day returns in 55% of cases following earnings announcements over the past five years, with a median positive return of 2.3% and a peak one-day positive return of 6.1% [2][7] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 recorded earnings data points, with 11 resulting in positive and 9 in negative one-day returns [7] - The percentage of positive one-day returns drops to 33% when analyzing data from the last three years [7] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider taking a position prior to the earnings release based on historical data or wait for the earnings to be disclosed to analyze immediate and medium-term returns [6] - A correlation analysis between short-term and medium-term returns can guide trading choices, particularly if 1D and 5D returns demonstrate a strong correlation [8]

本次策略会汇聚了 证券 研究领域的顶尖 专家学者 ， 从当前宏观环境出发，聚焦热门行 业和景气板块，深度分析港股市场和创新药板块投资机会，与投资者共同探讨下半年投资策 略。 会场特设投资者保护与反洗钱专区，通过趣味投教视频和特色刊物宣传理性投资理念，用 实际行动践行 "金融为民"使命。 本次策略会为广大投资者和同业机构提供了交流的平台，会议吸引了超过 300名高净值 客户的参加，投资者积极互动，现场交流氛围热烈。申万宏源证券上海分公司将始终以客户 为中心，持续 为您带来更多 前沿观点和策略分享， 期待在下一场思想盛宴中与您再次相 聚！ 2025年 7 月 11 日， 申万宏源 证券 上海 分公司 "聚势待发·布局正当时"2025年夏季 策略会在 上海成功举办 。本次策略会旨在 抓住年中 关键时点， 深入分析市场行情节奏，为 投资者厘清下半年投资机会。 申万宏源证券上海 分公司负责人 为活动致开幕词。他深刻分析了上半年 A股行情特征， 结合2025年宏观政策导向展望下半年市场投资机会，并向长期以来陪伴申万宏源证券的投资 者表示感谢。 ...