股 票 研 究 英美烟草：Glo Hilo 反馈亮眼，新型烟草加速扩张 [Table_Industry] 耐用消费品 证 券 研 究 报 新型烟草行业专题更新 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 021-38038184 | liujiakun@gtht.com | S0880524040004 | | 毛宇翔(分析师) | 021-38038672 | maoyuxiang@gtht.com | S0880524080013 | 本报告导读： 2025 年下半年英美烟草新型烟草业务增长提速，产业链有望受益高景气。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 耐用消费品《业绩分化加速，龙头韧性凸显》 2025.11.03 耐用消费品《家具板块：底部确立，后势可期》 2025.09.09 耐用消费品《景气度分化，关注细分赛道投资机 会》2025.09.03 耐用消费品《新型烟草行业增长提速，新品市场 表现可期》2025.08.05 耐用消费品《AI 眼镜新品百花齐放，产品加速破 圈》2 ...

Marroco同时提及公司明年面临的其他压力，其中包括澳大利亚烟草监管政策趋严带来的冲击，以及对 新兴产品品类的持续投入，也将对利润增长形成一定压制。 公司首席执行官Tadeu Marroco指出，随着美国监管机构加大对非合规电子烟的整治力度，相关政策红 利初步显现。他预计，明年美国电子烟业务将不再拖累包括快速增长的口服尼古丁袋品牌Velo在内的新 型烟草整体业务组合。 但Marroco也坦言，美国电子烟市场约70%仍由未受监管产品构成，目前尚不清楚该市场何时能成为增 长引擎。"对于2026年的业绩预期，我们必须保持审慎态度，"他表示。 英美烟草(BTI.US)周二公布了最新业绩指引，预计其2026年业绩将处于中期目标的低端，原因是美国电 子烟市场的监管压力和激烈竞争，抵消了其业务组合中其他领域的强劲增长。 根据英美烟草的最新指引，2026年营收增速将落在3%-5%的中期目标区间下限，经调整后的营业利润增 速预计为4%-6%。 受此消息影响，英美烟草股价在盘前交易一度下跌约4%。不过，这家旗下拥有好彩、登喜路等知名香 烟品牌的烟草巨头同时表示，仍有望实现2025年业绩目标，并将股票回购计划规模从7月设定的11 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，从海外各烟草巨头2025年发展来看，传统卷烟销量下滑已是 不可逆转的趋势，各烟草巨头均将新型烟草作为保障公司长期发展的核心动力。英法等国已全面禁止一 次性烟，欧洲市场正处于由一次性向换弹式、类换弹式及开放式产品需求转换过程中，合规企业发展机 遇正重新开启。HNB方面，各烟草巨头竞相布局其中，美国市场26年有望正式开启，其全球渗透率有 望进一步提升，将带来广阔扩容空间。凭借Hilo优秀的产品性能且BAT进一步完善营销策略后，Hilo有 望重塑当前HNB竞争格局。 国金证券主要观点如下： 菲莫国际：25Q3新型烟草延续较优增长，期待26年IQOS登陆美国市场 2025Q1-Q3，菲莫国际新型烟草业务实现营收125亿元，同比增长16.0%%，收入占比同比提升3.0pct至 41.3%，其中25Q3新型烟草营收同比+18.9%至44亿美元，延续较优增长态势。 加热烟草方面，25Q1-Q3公司HNB出货量达1167亿支，同比增长12.2%，其中25Q3出货量同比+15.5%至 408.36亿支。截止25Q3，IQOS全球市占率同比提升0.5pct至5.8%，环比25Q2提升0.1 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for WuXi Technology Company Overview - The company discussed is WuXi Technology, focusing on the electronic vaporization industry. Key Financial Performance - Non-GAAP operating profit reached RMB 188 million, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of positive results [2][3] - Non-GAAP operating profit margin increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating significant enhancement in profitability [2][3] - Net revenue amounted to RMB 1.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28%, showcasing rapid business growth and strong market demand [2][3] International Market Strategy and Achievements - The international market strategy has yielded strong results, particularly in Asian markets through the introduction of popular products and effective local operations [4] - Investment in a leading European electronic vaporization company has contributed significantly to revenue since its consolidation in June 2025 [4] - In the UK, the company maintained its market position and revenue growth by shifting consumer focus to reusable products following a ban on single-use items [4] Development in Key Markets - The domestic market in China has seen positive changes due to enhanced regulatory enforcement, curbing illegal product re-exports [5] - The Asia-Pacific region has excelled with innovative product designs and user appeal, while Europe presents growth opportunities due to its mature regulatory framework [5] Future Revenue Outlook and R&D Focus - For 2026, the company plans to selectively expand its brand presence while ensuring regulatory clarity and market maturity [6] - R&D will focus on valuable product upgrades, including flavor authenticity, ergonomic design, and overall aesthetic performance, leveraging technology to enhance product performance [6] Channel Innovation in the Asian Market - The company is innovating channels in the Asian market by reshaping the consumer experience in electronic vaporizer stores [7] - A franchise retail model has been adopted, attracting over 450 partner stores in one East Asian country, significantly boosting brand influence and channel management capabilities [7] Integration Progress and European Expansion Strategy - The integration of the UK electronic vaporization company is in its early stages, focusing on maintaining brand assets and operational strength [8] - The company aims to transform the business into a multi-brand retail distribution platform, enhancing efficiency through supply chain and capital advantages [8] Modern Oral Products Development - The modern oral segment is one of the fastest-growing categories in the new tobacco field, with the launch of ultra-thin, fast-dissolving oral films at the Interzum exhibition in Germany receiving high industry recognition [9] - The company plans to gradually introduce this category in various markets while maintaining a cautious revenue outlook in the short term [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a high position in the market and focusing on specific sectors such as overseas expansion and Bay Area-related fields, including power grids, engineering machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, home appliances, and non-ferrous metals [1][9]. Core Insights - Economic data for October shows a general slowdown in industrial, consumption, and investment growth, with retail sales related to trade-in programs declining by 2.2% and fixed asset investment down 1.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - CPI turned positive at 0.2% in October, while PPI narrowed to -2.1%. Expectations for 2026 indicate a potential rise in CPI to 0.5% and PPI to -1, which may benefit value-style sectors related to price increases [1][6]. - The financial data indicates a decline in social financing, credit, and M1, M2 growth rates, reflecting weak demand in the real economy, but a trend of deposit activation continues [1][13]. Economic Performance - Industrial value-added and service production indices decreased to 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively, while social retail sales growth fell from 3.0% to 2.9% [2]. - Fixed asset investment from January to October saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate investment showing a significant drop [5]. Sector Analysis - Most industries experienced a slowdown, with only a few, such as utilities and automotive, showing growth. The energy and metals sectors are under scrutiny, with oil processing remaining high and expected Brent crude oil prices around $65 per barrel in Q4 [3][11]. - The consumer sector is facing challenges, particularly in home appliances and automotive, with declines between 7% and 15% [4]. Market Strategy - The current market shows a divergence in performance, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced investment strategy focusing on sectors like batteries, chemicals, and aquaculture, while being cautious of market volatility [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to benefit from a weakening economy, with predictions of accelerated monetary easing towards the end of the year [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that demand will remain weak in 2026, necessitating further policy support to stimulate effective demand and reduce ineffective supply [7][8]. - The light industry and beauty sector are expected to require policy stimulation, with a focus on solid growth segments like trendy toys and beauty products [17][20].

Company Overview - Zhuhai Rundu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is a modern pharmaceutical enterprise established in 1999, located in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province. The company went public on January 5, 2018, on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2][3]. - The company specializes in drug research and development, production, and sales, focusing on chemical drug formulations, raw materials, and intermediates, with applications in cardiovascular, anti-infection, digestive, analgesic, and anesthetic treatments [2][3]. Product Development and Sales - The Class 1 innovative drug, Dexmedetomidine Hydrochloride Injection, submitted for registration in March 2024, is currently in the CDE drug approval sequence [4]. - The company’s subsidiary, Rundu Pharmaceutical (Jingmen) Co., Ltd., received a tobacco production license valid until June 30, 2028, enhancing its nicotine production capabilities. Sales of nicotine have significantly increased in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year, although this has not yet impacted overall performance [5]. - Sales of Rabeprazole Sodium Enteric-Coated Capsules have significantly declined due to inclusion in the national centralized procurement directory, affecting the company's performance in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [6][8]. Financial Performance - The decline in 2025 performance is attributed to changes in pharmaceutical industry policies and market conditions, particularly the national centralized procurement policy, leading to decreased sales and profit margins [8]. - The company aims to enhance profitability and competitiveness through cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and the implementation of ESG governance [8]. Production Capacity - The company has achieved a high capacity utilization rate, with a newly built oral solid dosage workshop designed for an annual capacity of 6 billion tablets, marking a significant upgrade in production capabilities [9][10]. - The subsidiary's designed annual capacity is 4,000 tons, currently in a ramp-up phase, with significant improvements compared to the previous year [10]. Future Directions - The company is focusing on the development of cardiovascular, digestive, anti-infection, and analgesic treatments, with plans to evaluate the expansion into new areas based on clinical needs and technological trends [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the metal packaging industry, particularly highlighting the potential for companies like Aorijin to benefit from overseas expansion and market restructuring [3]. Core Insights - The overall revenue of the light industry sample in Q3 decreased by 0.73% year-on-year, with a significant net profit decline of 25% primarily due to the paper sector's performance. Excluding the paper sector, the net profit margin remained stable [2][7]. - The personal care packaging sector showed steady growth, while the home and paper sectors faced pressure, leading to a divergence in export performance [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets for metal packaging, with Aorijin's planned expansion in 2025 marking a pivotal year for the company [3]. Summary by Sections Home and Paper Sector - The home sector's revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year in Q3, with net profit down by 14.9%. The decline is attributed to reduced government subsidies and increased investments in new business areas [7]. - The paper sector's revenue fell by 12.6% year-on-year, with a staggering net profit decline of 429%, largely due to losses at Chenming Paper [7][9]. - Price trends indicate a slight increase in certain paper products, with expectations for cultural paper prices to stabilize due to upcoming demand [7][9]. Personal Care and Entertainment Sector - The personal care sector saw a revenue increase of 18.4% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 42.3%, driven by companies like Zhongshun Jierou and Stable Medical [9]. - The entertainment sector's retail sales increased by 11.9% in September, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [12]. Export Chain - The export chain's revenue grew by 0.7% year-on-year, but net profit saw a slight decline of 1.6%. Companies with strong operational capabilities performed well, while those facing capacity transfer issues struggled [9]. - Recent developments in US-China trade negotiations have reduced tariff uncertainties, which may benefit export-oriented companies [9]. Packaging Sector - The packaging sector's revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with a notable net profit growth of 16.1%. The metal packaging segment continues to face challenges, but there are expectations for recovery in profitability [9]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong operational stability and dividend value in the packaging sector [9].

Group 1 - HSSP INTL announced a joint venture with COTY to distribute e-cigarette products in the Middle East, focusing on the "LOST MARY" brand [1][3] - The joint venture will initially target Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Egypt, with the Middle East e-cigarette market projected to reach $3.5 billion by the end of 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [1] - HSSP INTL's subsidiary Alpha Six Three is working on registering and importing HEAPS e-cigarette products in Australia, having already established a branch in New Zealand for e-cigarette sales [2] Group 2 - COTY, based in Dubai, is a diversified investment holding company with expertise in alternative nicotine, technology, and retail, providing support for the joint venture's expansion in the high-growth Middle Eastern market [3] - The company "Miracle" is a leading player in the e-cigarette industry, having transitioned from a channel trader to a global brand owner, with operations in over 100 markets and more than 100,000 retail outlets worldwide [3] - HSSP INTL's board proposed changing the company's name to East Nova Holdings Limited to better reflect its future business plans and direction [2]

Core Viewpoint - China is the largest traditional tobacco market globally, while the US leads in the new tobacco market, with Japan and South Korea also holding significant shares in the new tobacco sector [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional tobacco market is gradually shrinking, while the new tobacco market is experiencing rapid growth. In 2020, the market size of heated not-burn (HNB) products surpassed that of electronic cigarettes, establishing itself as the new leader in the new tobacco sector [2] - The US market currently leads in vaporized electronic cigarettes but has a significant gap in the HNB market. The resolution between PMI and BAT is expected to accelerate the development of the HNB market [3] - The regulatory environment in Europe is tightening for vaporized products while remaining stable for HNB, which may allow HNB to gradually capture a larger market share [3] Group 2: Product Landscape - The transition from traditional cigarettes to new tobacco products is driven by a dual focus on flavor and health, with new tobacco products offering significant harm reduction advantages and more diverse taste options [2] - Major multinational tobacco companies are actively investing in new tobacco products, which is likely to increase the penetration rate of these products in the market [2] Group 3: Compliance and Regulation - The structure of tobacco products and their acceptance in different countries is largely determined by national policies and regulations. Taxation influences the differing policy attitudes towards traditional and new tobacco products, while health concerns shape the regulatory stance on various new tobacco products [4] - Strict regulations and weak enforcement may lead to unintended consequences, such as the growth of the illegal electronic cigarette market [4] Group 4: Brand Landscape - The traditional tobacco market is highly concentrated, dominated by brands like Marlboro, Winston, and Camel. In the new tobacco sector, PMI and BAT hold leading market shares, but changes in policy and company strategies may alter the brand landscape [5] Group 5: Industry Chain - The tobacco supply chain includes essential materials for both cigarette and electronic cigarette production, such as cigarette labels, rolling paper, and electronic cigarette components like lithium batteries and control chips. Key listed companies in this supply chain include Jinjia Co., Dongfeng Co., and others [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the clear upward trend in the new tobacco industry driven by supply and demand dynamics, leading to accelerated expansion and increased involvement from international tobacco giants [1][2]. Industry Trends - The new oral tobacco products, which combine characteristics of heated non-combustible (HNB) and vaporized electronic cigarettes, are gaining popularity globally due to their ability to address traditional tobacco's limitations [2]. - New oral tobacco products are expected to gradually replace traditional products, similar to how HNB products have replaced cigarettes, while also attracting a new customer base with diverse flavor options [2]. - The tax environment for non-tobacco products is more favorable, and the competition is less intense compared to vaporized electronic cigarettes, leading to higher expected profit margins for new oral tobacco products [2]. Competitive Landscape - The market for new oral tobacco products has low entry barriers, but the market share remains concentrated among international tobacco companies, with no significant changes expected in the competitive landscape [3]. - The established customer base and sales channels of international tobacco companies, built over years of traditional oral tobacco operations, create a path dependency that hinders new entrants [3]. - The regulatory environment is stable and favorable for new oral tobacco products, as they pose lower public health risks compared to vaporized electronic cigarettes, which helps maintain a level playing field among brands [3]. Company Developments - Philip Morris International (PMI) made a significant move by acquiring the parent company of ZYN, a leading brand in new oral tobacco, for $16 billion, indicating strong confidence in the industry's future [4]. - The FDA's approval of 20 ZYN products for market release in January 2025, including various flavors, further supports the positive outlook for the industry [4]. - The online distributor Haypp has provided optimistic guidance for its 2025 performance, reinforcing the industry's high growth potential [4].