证券研究报告 乘用车1月月报：内需静待改善，出口韧性较强 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199790 2026年1月30日 核心观点 电动化数据跟踪：2025年12月行业景气度低于预期，2026年1月以旧换新政策落地 ———————————————————————————————— ◼ 2025年12月多数省市以旧换新政策预算资金池告罄，消费者观望情绪严重，行业零售同比下滑明显；批发层 面车企主动调节生产/库存节奏，环比下行。2025年12月新能源汽车零售渗透率58.7%，同环比分别+10.9/- 2.5pct。12月乘用车行业渠道去库6.9万辆，其中新能源车去库4.3万辆。12月新能源车格局基本保持稳定，其 中比亚迪市占率25%，环比+0pct；吉利市占率11%，环比-1pct。2026年1月乘用车以旧换新政策落地。 全球化数据跟踪：2025年12月东南亚市场新能源渗透率超预期，比亚迪出口表现超预期 投资建议与风险提示 2 ———————————————————————————————— —————— ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Insights - The German government plans to restart the electric vehicle (EV) subsidy policy that was suspended in 2023, with a total budget of €3 billion (approximately ¥24 billion), aimed at boosting the domestic automotive industry and accelerating the green transition [2][4][18]. - The subsidy will provide between €1,500 and €6,000 for eligible low- to middle-income families purchasing new energy vehicles priced below €45,000, effective from January 1, 2026, until 2029 or until funds are exhausted [18]. - The expected impact of the subsidy is to significantly increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Germany, with projections indicating that at least 500,000 vehicles will be subsidized, accounting for approximately 29.5% of the expected new energy vehicle sales in 2025 [18][21]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On January 19, the German government announced the restart of the EV subsidy policy, with a total budget of €3 billion, to enhance the penetration of new energy vehicles in the market [4][18]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Germany is expected to rise significantly due to the subsidy, with a projected 84,700 new energy vehicles sold in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.3% [13][18]. - The overall new energy vehicle sales in Europe are projected to reach 3.9 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [13][18]. Implications for Domestic Companies - The subsidy is expected to benefit domestic companies such as BYD, Leapmotor, and SAIC, as many of their models are priced below €45,000 [30]. - The increase in new energy vehicle penetration in Europe is anticipated to positively impact the performance of domestic component manufacturers and vehicle producers operating in the European market [30].

Group 1 - Changan Ford's wholesale sales in China are projected to drop to 121,500 units in 2025, with retail sales at only 99,400 units, marking a significant decline from 247,000 units in 2024 [1] - The drop below the critical annual sales threshold of 100,000 units indicates severe operational pressure for the company, as this level is essential for cost-sharing and maintaining dealer network stability [1] - Changan Ford's sales have been on a downward trend since reaching a peak of 957,000 units in 2016, with a notable decline to below 200,000 units in 2019 and further drops in subsequent years [1] Group 2 - The sales structure is heavily imbalanced, with the Mondeo model alone accounting for 47,000 units, nearly half of the brand's total sales, indicating a vulnerability to market risks [2] - Changan Ford has eliminated popular models like the Focus to pursue higher unit profits, resulting in a gap in the 100,000 yuan price segment, which has led to a loss of market share as competitors adopt aggressive pricing strategies [4] - Changan Ford's sales have consistently declined for five consecutive months, with only 76,000 units sold in the first five months of 2025 [4] Group 3 - Changan Automobile reported total sales of 2.913 million units in 2025, with a significant 85% coming from its own brands, indicating a reduced reliance on joint ventures [5] - The decline in Changan Ford's performance reflects broader challenges faced by many joint venture brands in adapting to the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market, where domestic brands dominate with over 70% market share [5] - Traditional advantages of joint venture brands, such as durability and fuel economy, are losing relevance in the electric vehicle sector, where many brands struggle with outdated technology and insufficient range [5]

Core Viewpoint - Canada will import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a preferential tariff rate of 6.1%, down from a previous 100% tariff, marking a significant policy shift during Prime Minister Carney's visit to China [1][2]. Group 1: Electric Vehicle Tariffs - Canada has agreed to allow the import of up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles, applying a most-favored-nation tariff rate of 6.1%, which restores the tariff level to pre-trade friction conditions [2]. - This decision comes after Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024 at the request of the Biden administration [2]. Group 2: Financial Cooperation - The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Canada have renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement with a scale of 200 billion RMB, effective for five years, which can be extended by mutual consent [2]. - This agreement aims to enhance financial cooperation between China and Canada, expand the use of local currencies, and facilitate bilateral trade and investment [2]. Group 3: Automotive Industry Outlook - The China Automotive Industry Association forecasts that by 2025, the total production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 34.53 million and 34.40 million units, respectively, marking a new historical high and maintaining the country's position as the world's largest automotive market for 17 consecutive years [3]. - The passenger vehicle market is expected to grow steadily, while commercial vehicle production and sales are projected to exceed 4 million units, reflecting a recovery with over 10% growth [3]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are anticipated to see production and sales surpassing 16 million units, with domestic new car sales accounting for over 50% of the market [3]. Group 4: Future Projections - For 2026, the automotive industry in China is expected to continue its high-quality development, with total vehicle sales projected around 34.75 million, a 1% increase year-on-year [4]. - The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 19 million units in 2026, reflecting a 15.2% growth [4]. Group 5: Industry Sentiment - Guoxin Securities believes that the rapid development of the automotive industry, particularly in the NEV sector, will be driven by supportive policies, increased frequency of new car launches, and enhanced brand competitiveness in overseas markets [5]. - The firm anticipates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will remain above 50%, with significant growth potential [5]. - Zhongjin Company highlights that the "trade-in" policy will provide a certain level of support for sales growth, while also emphasizing the need to focus on market segmentation and opportunities arising from globalization and technological advancements [5].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's automotive market is expected to achieve structural growth, with production and sales reaching 34.53 million and 34.40 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, maintaining its position as the world's largest market for 17 consecutive years [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The significant growth in the automotive sector is driven by the rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs), with domestic sales projected to reach 13.88 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, resulting in a penetration rate of 54% for new energy passenger cars [1][2]. - Chinese brands are a core engine of growth, with sales of domestic passenger cars expected to reach 20.94 million units, a 16.5% increase, raising market share to 69.5%, the highest since 2018 [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The automotive industry has shifted away from aggressive price wars, with only 156 new models seeing price reductions in the first ten months of 2025, indicating a more rational market order [2]. - Growth is primarily fueled by government policies such as "trade-in" programs that effectively stimulate demand for vehicle upgrades [2]. Group 3: Profitability and Competition - Despite the expansion in sales, the automotive industry's profitability remains under pressure, with revenues exceeding 10 trillion yuan and profits reaching 440.3 billion yuan, a 7.5% increase, but with a profit margin of 4.4%, below the average of 6% for downstream industrial enterprises [2]. - The competition landscape is increasingly concentrated, with the top three companies—BYD, SAIC, and Geely—accounting for 36.6% of the market share, while the top 15 companies collectively hold 92.3% of total sales [10][12]. Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Trends - In 2025, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles are projected to reach 13.01 million units, a 17.7% increase, while traditional fuel vehicles are expected to decline to 11.06 million units, a decrease of 4.3% [4][6]. - The mainstream market for new energy vehicles is concentrated in the price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, with sales in this segment expected to reach 6.94 million units, a 24% increase, representing half of the total new energy vehicle sales [4][6]. Group 5: Brand Strategies - BYD continues to dominate the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan market segment, with significant sales from its Dynasty and Ocean series, while Geely's Galaxy brand has seen a 150% increase in sales, enhancing its market penetration [6][13]. - New entrants like Leap Motor and Xpeng are also making significant strides, with Leap Motor achieving a 104.7% year-on-year growth, focusing on cost control and technology [14][19]. Group 6: Future Outlook - For 2026, the automotive market is expected to see a modest growth of 1%, with total sales projected at 34.75 million units, while new energy vehicles are anticipated to grow by 15.2% to 1.9 million units [16][17]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify, with traditional automakers setting ambitious sales targets, while new entrants aim for aggressive growth, indicating a fierce battle for market share [19].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's automotive market is expected to achieve record growth amidst structural changes, with production and sales reaching 34.53 million and 34.40 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Structure - The growth is significantly driven by the rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs), with domestic sales projected to reach 13.875 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, resulting in a penetration rate of 54% for new energy passenger cars [1] - Chinese brands are a core engine of this growth, with sales of domestic passenger cars expected to hit 20.936 million units, a 16.5% increase, raising market share to 69.5%, the highest since 2018 [1] - The automotive industry has seen a rational return to pricing strategies, with only 156 new models reducing prices in the first ten months of 2025, indicating improved market order [1] Group 2: Profitability and Market Dynamics - Despite the growth in sales, the automotive industry's profitability remains under pressure, with revenues surpassing 10 trillion yuan and profits reaching 440.3 billion yuan, a 7.5% increase, but with a profit margin of 4.4%, below the average of 6% for downstream industrial enterprises [2] - The market is shifting towards new energy vehicles, with traditional fuel vehicle sales declining by 4.3% to 11.06 million units, while new energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 17.7% [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan price range is intense, with significant sales growth for NEVs in this segment, which accounted for 6.941 million units sold, a 24% increase [3] - BYD continues to dominate this price segment, with its Dynasty and Ocean series capturing nearly 90% of its total sales, while Geely's Galaxy brand has seen a 150% increase in sales [4] - New entrants like Leap Motor and Xpeng are also making significant inroads, with Leap Motor achieving a 104.7% increase in sales, focusing on cost control and technology [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The automotive market is expected to face a slowdown in growth, with predictions for 2026 indicating only a 1% increase in total sales to 34.75 million units, while NEVs are expected to grow by 15.2% [8] - Policy changes, such as the new recycling and consumption policies, are anticipated to support market demand, but competition is expected to intensify [9] - Major traditional automakers have set ambitious sales targets for 2026, while new entrants are also aiming for aggressive growth, indicating a highly competitive environment [10]

Core Insights - The impact of the new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction policy is reflected in the car market at the beginning of January 2026, with significant declines in both retail and wholesale figures for passenger vehicles [1] - The overall penetration rate of new energy vehicles has decreased, with January 1-11 penetration rates at 35.5% for retail and 43.9% for wholesale, both lower than the previous year's average [1] - Despite the decline in penetration rates, analysts suggest that this does not indicate a market reversal, as low penetration rates at the beginning of the year are considered normal [1] Market Performance - From January 1-11, 2026, the national retail of passenger vehicles was 328,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%, while wholesale was 381,000 units, down 40% [1] - The new energy vehicle retail market saw 117,000 units sold, a 38% decline year-on-year, and wholesale was 167,000 units, down 30% [1] - In comparison, the new energy penetration rates for January 2025 and January 2024 were 37.9% and 27.1%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.9 and 16.7 percentage points for January 2026 [2] Policy Impact - The adjustment of the "two new" subsidy policies has introduced variables to the new energy vehicle market, with changes in scrapping and replacement subsidies affecting lower-end vehicles significantly [3] - For example, the scrapping subsidy for a 100,000 yuan new energy vehicle has decreased from 20,000 yuan last year to 12,000 yuan this year, alongside an additional 5,000 yuan increase in purchase costs due to tax changes, totaling a policy-related "setback" of 13,000 yuan [3] - Analysts predict that the increase in new energy penetration rates this year may be slower than in previous years, estimating a growth rate of around 8% for the domestic new energy market, with an overall market growth rate of approximately 15% when factoring in exports [3] Market Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the new energy market, there is a general optimistic outlook for overall car market growth this year, driven by ongoing consumer promotion policies [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission's announcement on December 30, 2025, regarding large-scale equipment updates and replacement policies is expected to boost domestic automotive consumption [4] - January is anticipated to see a slight year-on-year increase in sales, supported by pre-ordered vehicles and efforts from local governments and car manufacturers [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 136,111 lots, up 1,772 lots; the position of the main contract was 460,281 lots, down 46,421 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 4,360 yuan/ton, up 6,300 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 26,898 lots/ton, up 928 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton, down 3,420 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 18,500 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2]. - **Downstream and Application Situation**: The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1 percentage point; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 60%, down 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 47.48%, up 0.74 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the monthly export volume was 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 2.315 million units, up 1.174 million units [2]. - **Option Situation**: The total call position was 65,420 contracts, up 4,295 contracts; the total put position was 94,168 contracts, up 6,167 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions was 143.94%, down 0.0252 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.65%, up 0.0929 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce released a briefing on the progress of consultations in the China - EU electric vehicle case. The China - EU agreed to provide general guidance on price commitments to Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU. It is expected that from 2026 to 2028, China's electric vehicle exports to the EU will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 20% [2]. - Xici Technology's sales revenue in the lithium - ion battery industry accounts for more than half. The lithium - ion battery industry shows signs of recovery, mainly driven by the growth of power battery and energy storage demand [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will improve supporting systems, issue management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, and revise the guidance catalog for industrial structure adjustment [2]. - In December 2025, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 18,341 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.68%. Exports to China decreased, while exports to South Korea and Japan increased [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: As lithium carbonate prices rise, lithium ore prices increase. There may be hedging space, and domestic supply is slightly increasing. Downstream battery cathode material manufacturers have low acceptance of high - priced lithium and mainly adopt a rigid - demand procurement strategy, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - **Options**: The put - call ratio of option positions is 143.94%, down 0.0252% month - on - month, indicating a bearish sentiment in the option market, and the implied volatility slightly increases [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2].

Core Insights - The Chinese passenger car market experienced a significant decline in December 2025, with retail sales dropping to 2.261 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, marking the third consecutive month of sales decline since October 2025 [2] - The overall retail sales for the year reached 23.744 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, slightly above the previous forecast of 2% [2] Market Performance - December sales were particularly weak in the fuel vehicle segment, which saw a decline of 30%. Although the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector did not experience a drop, its growth significantly slowed, with NEV retail sales at 1.337 million units, a year-on-year increase of only 2.6% [3] - The penetration rate of NEVs surpassed 50% for the first time in 2025, reaching 54%, with December's penetration rate at 59.1%, an increase of 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Brand Analysis - In December, the penetration rate of NEVs among domestic brands was 80.9%, while luxury brands had a penetration rate of 39.1%, and mainstream joint venture brands only reached 8.2% [4] - The market share of domestic brands continued to grow, reaching 65% for the year, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. In December, domestic brand retail sales were 1.46 million units, down 11% year-on-year [5] Export Performance - The export segment showed strong growth, with December passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) at 588,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.2%. For the entire year, exports totaled 5.739 million units, up 19.7% [5] Future Outlook - Despite the recent sales decline, there are positive factors such as the introduction of new models and a reduction in aggressive price cuts. The forecast for January 2026 anticipates a slight year-on-year sales increase, with total market sales projected at approximately 35.5 million units for the year, a 2% increase [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and competitive dynamics in the large three-row SUV market, particularly focusing on NIO's new ES8 model, which has achieved impressive sales figures and strategic importance for the brand [1][2] - NIO's new ES8 achieved retail sales of 22,258 units in December 2025, becoming the best-selling large SUV and leading in the three-row SUV and models priced above 400,000 yuan [1] - The gross margin of the new ES8 is among the highest in NIO's product lineup, contributing directly to revenue growth, while the company is on track to reduce operating losses and potentially achieve profitability [1] Group 2 - In November 2025, pure electric large three-row SUV sales reached 46,209 units, marking a 16% month-on-month increase and setting a historical record, indicating the arrival of a golden era for this segment [2] - The market for large three-row SUVs in China is seen as a watershed in 2025, with a significant shift away from range-extended models, driven by advancements in technology, user demand, and infrastructure development [2] - The competitive landscape in the large three-row SUV market has evolved from a single-brand focus to a multi-brand, multi-technology approach, intensifying competition as new models enter the market [2]