Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China, indicating an expected return that is stronger than the market benchmark index by over 5% [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the optimization of existing housing storage policies is expected to gradually assist in inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China announced a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing, which supports local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for allocation as affordable housing. The report notes that the slow progress in storage is primarily due to pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, and the responsibility for compliance and profitability lies with local governments [1][5]. - The report suggests that there is room for policy optimization, such as removing price caps to encourage developers to sell inventory, extending re-loan terms, and lowering interest rates to improve project profitability. These cumulative effects are expected to gradually aid in inventory reduction and enhance the recovery slope of real estate stock prices [1][5]. - The report emphasizes that the recovery of the real estate industry and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy announcements. The decline in risk-free interest rates and the reduction in industry risk assessments are the main drivers for the recovery of real estate stocks. The report indicates that the real estate sector is entering a new bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rates) surpassing that of the numerator (industry challenges), leading to a potential rebound in stock prices [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Evaluation - The report discusses the marginal optimization of existing housing storage policies, which is expected to facilitate inventory reduction. The People's Bank of China has set up a 300 billion yuan re-loan to support local state-owned enterprises in acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing [1]. - The report identifies that the slow progress in storage is due to the pricing discrepancies between developers and local governments, with local governments bearing the ultimate responsibility for compliance and profitability [1][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific stocks, including China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Accumulate) [6].

Group 1 - The market continued to rise in the afternoon, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, and Sanhuan Group increasing by over 16%, while Xinyi Sheng rose by over 14% [1] - The ChiNext 50 related ETFs surged approximately 4% due to market influences [1] Group 2 - Specific performance of ChiNext 50 ETFs includes: - Huatai Baichuan's ChiNext 50 ETF at 1.172, up 0.047 (4.18%) - Jiashi's ChiNext 50 ETF at 1.202, up 0.048 (4.16%) - Huaxia's ChiNext 50 ETF at 1.192, up 0.046 (4.01%) - Wanjia's ChiNext 50 ETF at 1.262, up 0.047 (3.87%) - Other ETFs also showed positive performance with increases ranging from 3.59% to 3.85% [2] Group 3 - Brokerages indicate that the outlook for the market remains positive, supported by a systematic decline in risk-free interest rates and the spillover effect of overseas dollar liquidity, which is expected to continue driving incremental capital inflows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing its first "systematic slow bull" since 2005, driven by improved risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates, alongside China's rise and advantages [1][3]. Historical Context - Since the initiation of the stock reform in April 2005, the A-share market has undergone four bull markets, with the first three being "systematic bull markets" characterized by steep upward slopes, while the fourth was a "structural bull market" with a gentler slope. The fifth bull market is expected to commence in 2025 [2]. Macro Factors - The combination of enhanced risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates is fostering a "systematic bull market." Key factors include supportive policies, a stable response to trade tensions, and recognition of China's military capabilities. Additionally, the significant drop in risk-free interest rates is likely to attract new capital into the A-share market [3]. Technical and Quantitative Factors - The report highlights four key factors supporting the "systematic slow bull": the stable appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the upward trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, the "rolling peak" structure of the index, and the divergence in sector performance, indicating a unique "systematic slow bull" [4]. Investment Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests a "1+X" allocation approach focusing on "big finance + broad technology" to enhance success rates, while also considering undervalued real estate and engineering machinery for higher returns. Additionally, it recommends focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and renewable energy with external advantages, as well as banks that serve as defensive "ballast" [5].

Group 1 - The report identifies that the A-share market is currently experiencing its first "systematic slow bull" since 2005, driven by improved risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates, alongside China's rise and advantages [1][3][22] - The report outlines that since the initiation of the "924" policy in September 2024, the market has established a long-term bottom, leading to the commencement of the fifth bull market in April 2025 [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on "big finance + broad technology" sectors for investment, suggesting a "1+X" allocation strategy to enhance win rates [1][4][22] Group 2 - The report highlights that the historical context of A-share markets includes four previous bull markets, with the first three being "systematic bull markets" characterized by steep upward slopes, while the fourth was a "structural bull market" with a more gradual increase [2][13][14] - It notes that the current "slow bull" market is supported by four key factors: the stable appreciation of the RMB against the USD, positive technical trends, a favorable chip structure, and differentiated sector performance [4][22] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive to investments in innovative pharmaceuticals and renewable energy, which are expected to benefit from external advantages and improving market conditions [1][4][22]

Group 1: Strategy - The main contradiction in investor expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to changes in discount rates, with the decline in the risk-free rate being a key driver for the upward adjustment of valuations in the Chinese stock market in 2025 [2][4] - Investors should adjust their understanding of the main contradictions and increase their allocation to China [2] Group 2: Macro Overview - Progress in US-Japan trade negotiations has boosted global market sentiment, leading to a general rise in global stock markets [2][8] - The US real estate market remains weak under high interest rates and uncertainty, while manufacturing PMI has weakened but the service sector remains strong, indicating economic resilience [2][8] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Puyang's announcement of a strategic cooperation agreement with Greeenmei indicates an unexpected procurement scale of 500,000 tons, confirming customer recognition of active magnesium oxide [3][16] - The penetration in the nickel extraction field is expected to accelerate, and profitability may exceed expectations due to customer expansion [3][16] Group 4: Insurance Industry - The recent announcement of a new research value for life insurance has triggered a reduction in the preset interest rate, which is expected to improve the risk of interest spread losses [3][19] - Some insurance companies have announced plans to switch to new products in September, which is beneficial for improving interest spread risk [3][21]

Core Viewpoint - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which will lead to an overall increase in the valuation of A/H shares [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation Logic - The main contradiction in market expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to the decline in discount rates, particularly the risk-free interest rate [2]. - The high opportunity cost over the past three years has hindered investors' willingness to enter the market [2]. Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical examples from Japan and the United States show that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products [3]. - In China, each major market rally has been accompanied by a decline in risk-free interest rates, leading to increased capital inflow into the stock market [4]. Current Market Conditions - The current environment indicates that the conditions for a new round of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market are forming, driven by the decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - The anticipated decline in risk-free rates will likely lead to a broad-based increase in valuations across A/H shares, benefiting both blue-chip and growth stocks [5]. Future Outlook - The research suggests a strategic bullish outlook on China, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the shift in the main contradiction affecting market expectations [2][5].

Group 1: Market Strategy - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which shifts investor focus from economic cycle fluctuations to discount rate changes [1][4][5] - Investors should adjust their understanding of the main contradictions in the market, recognizing that the decline in risk-free rates will lead to an increase in capital inflow into the stock market [1][4] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - China Merchants Shekou (招商蛇口) is positioned to benefit from the lowest financing costs in the industry, prudent financial strategies, and scarce land resources in Qianhai, leading to improved cash flow and risk management [4][6] - The company is focusing on high-energy cities and expanding its diversified REITs platform, which will drive performance recovery [4][8] Group 3: Nuclear Power Equipment Industry - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant development in the nuclear fusion industry, indicating a trend towards commercialization and a clearer path for industrialization [10][12][13] - The company has received substantial investment, totaling approximately 11.49 billion yuan, which will enhance its capabilities in engineering, technology validation, and digital R&D [12][13] Group 4: Investment Banking and Fund Management - The public fund market saw a significant increase in new fund issuance in June 2025, with a total of 1,221.24 billion units, reflecting a 85.71% increase [29][30] - The market is witnessing a shift towards mixed products and floating rate products, driven by an increase in investor risk appetite and demand for alpha-generating products [30][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the decline in the risk-free interest rate will be a key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025, shifting investor focus from economic cycle fluctuations to changes in discount rates [2][5] - The overall valuation center of A/H shares is expected to be adjusted upwards due to the decline in risk-free interest rates, which will enhance investor sentiment and willingness to enter the market [2][4] - Historical examples from Japan and the United States illustrate that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products, leading to a decrease in bond market size and an increase in equity market size [3] Group 2 - The article outlines three significant periods of declining risk-free interest rates in the Chinese stock market: the first during 2014-2015, the second from 2019-2021, and the current phase expected to begin in late 2024 [4] - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant development in the nuclear fusion industry, indicating a growing trend towards commercialization and industrialization in this sector [8][9] - The investment of approximately 11.492 billion yuan by various stakeholders into China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. signifies strong support and confidence in the nuclear fusion industry, which is expected to drive further growth and innovation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a significant drop of nearly 3%, leading the market decline, while the only bank AH preferred ETF (517900) with over 20% gains this year saw a surge in trading volume, reaching a three-year high [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The increase in trading volume at the price bottom typically indicates a potential price rise as volume increases [1]. - The recent strong adjustment in bank stocks is attributed to the fact that the market value of AH bank stocks held directly by risk capital accounts for 25% [1]. - The attractiveness of these bank stocks lies in their valuation advantage at 0.7 times the price-to-book ratio, stable dividend yield, and characteristics similar to a stabilizing fund [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments due to overbuying may last for several weeks; however, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to factors such as declining risk-free interest rates and expectations of state support [1]. - The bank AH preferred ETF (517900) has a dividend yield of 6.51% as of the end of May, reflecting a rotation strategy in the AH market that prioritizes undervalued stocks [1]. - Investors can access this through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1].

Core Viewpoint - The current REITs bull market is driven by three main factors: declining risk-free interest rates, increased demand for institutional allocation, and the cyclical advantages of certain assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The REITs market has reached a new high, with the CSI REITs total return index hitting 1107.3 as of June 6, 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 14.4%, outperforming global asset classes [2]. - The total market value of C-REITs has surpassed 200 billion, with eight new projects launched this year showing impressive yields, although the subscription rate has decreased due to intensified competition for quality assets [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain high valuations in the next 1-2 years, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances and policy benefits yet to be fully realized [2]. - C-REITs are projected to evolve through three phases: "expansion initiation - valuation enhancement - equilibrium stabilization," with the market value potentially reaching 400-500 billion and the number of listed REITs exceeding 100 in the next three years [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on primary market offline subscriptions and strategic placements, while secondary market allocations should concentrate on "high-quality domestic demand assets + recovery assets" [3]. - Suggested sectors include policy-driven rental housing, consumer goods, and municipal environmental projects, as well as logistics assets with strong management capabilities and improving occupancy rates [3].