交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-21燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡交易员表示，当前高硫燃料油在浮仓及固定储罐中存在供应过剩的情况。近几个月窗 口采购量巨大，但实际需求不足以消化全部库存，预计过剩状况将持续，供应压力也将延续一段时间；中 性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油383.49美元/吨，基差为125元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为480.5美元/吨，基差 为94元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油8月13日当周库存为2263.9万桶，增加189万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 6、预期：隔夜原油低位震荡运行，燃油同步运行，美国正安排俄乌领导人会晤，市场风险情绪消退，燃 油预计低位震荡。FU2510：2690-2740区间运行，LU2511：3430-3480区间运行 近期多空分析 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with light positions or wait and see. The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. The long - term strategy is to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction. The arbitrage strategy advises waiting and seeing or light - position attempts due to large fluctuations [5][6] - The cease - fire news has limited impact on the market, and the market is volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5] Summary According to Directory Freight Index - On August 18, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5% from the previous period [3] - On August 15, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US - West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI (US - West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In the eurozone, the July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.5. The July services PMI was 51.2, exceeding the expected 50.7 and the previous value of 50.5. The July composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5, significantly higher than 0.2 in June and the market - expected 1.1, reaching the highest level since April 2022 [3] - In the US, the July S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, with an expected 52.7 and a previous value of 52.9; the July S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55.2, with an expected 53 and a previous value of 52.9. The July Markit composite PMI preliminary value was 54.6, the highest since December 2024, better than the expected 52.8 and the previous value of 52.9 [4] - The July manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in China was 49.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [4] Market Conditions - On August 19, the main contract 2510 closed at 1370.3, a decline of 0.80%, with a trading volume of 27,300 lots and an open interest of 52,800 lots, a decrease of 383 lots from the previous day [5] Geopolitical Situation - On August 18, Hamas announced its agreement to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar, but Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed uninterested, and Israel was advancing its so - called "takeover" of Gaza City [7] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly near 1300 for the 2510 contract and near 1750 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see or try with light positions [6] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to determine the subsequent direction [6] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [6] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested after the previous rebound. The short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the destocking process in summer is tortuous. However, domestic demand is the main driver at the macro level, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in the middle and late August. The focus should be on the autumn stocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion and the potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL and PP Futures Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7307, 7291, and 7268 respectively, with changes of - 27, - 21, and - 24 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.37%, - 0.29%, and - 0.33% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7016, 7032, and 6987 respectively, with changes of - 32, - 16, and - 39 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.45%, - 0.23%, and - 0.56% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 195031, 3873, and 54494 respectively, and the open interests were 360140, 18851, and 125736 respectively, with changes of 18234, 761, and - 22109 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 198360, 7393, and 50844 respectively, and the open interests were 416594, 28997, and 81393 respectively, with changes of 24874, 1950, and - 18050 respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are 16, 23, and - 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 22, 20, and - 42. For PP, the current price spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 16, 45, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, 22, and - 22 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2395 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Intermediate and Final Products**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (August 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.35 per barrel, down $1.07 or 1.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.25 - $63.39. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.79 per barrel, down $0.81 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.61 - $66.58 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 5~10, with the price negotiation range around 4670~4705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - **PTA and MEG**: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - **Polyester Upstream**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Polyester Downstream**: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report With increasing supply and stable downstream demand, methanol inventories at ports are accumulating rapidly. Against the backdrop of increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy for methanol trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2391 (-9/-0.38%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In production areas, prices range from 2090 to 2230 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 to 2320 yuan/ton; at ports, prices range from 2270 to 2310 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week (20250818 - 0819), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest was 28,300 tons (2.83 million tons), a decrease of 7,500 tons (0.75 million tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 20.95% [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: Coal - producing areas in the Northwest have seen a significant decline in coal mine operating rates, with a rebound in raw coal prices. Methanol production profits are high and stable, and domestic supply is continuously abundant. Import supply is also increasing, with Iran's production recovering [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, with a decline in operating rates. MTO device operating rates are rising, but some devices have reduced loads or stopped production. Overall, demand is stable [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, while inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is mainly affected by cost increases, but there are many uncertainties in the market. The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate. The rapeseed meal market has significant price fluctuations, and the supply shortage still provides some support for the price. In the medium - term, the rapeseed meal market will have relatively obvious positive factors. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategies are to buy low for single - side trading, expand the MRM05 spread for arbitrage, and buy call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - The US soybean futures continued to be strong, and the domestic soybean meal futures rebounded after a phased adjustment. The upward trend of rapeseed meal futures slowed down. The month - to - month spread of soybean meal declined significantly, while that of rapeseed meal strengthened but still fluctuated. The near - month spread of rapeseed meal showed a restorative upward trend, and the far - month spread reflected concerns about future supply [4]. - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3161, 2844, and 3113 respectively, with changes of +6, - 3, and +13. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2604, 2505, and 2678 respectively, with changes of +14, +1, and - 10 [4]. - In terms of basis, for soybean meal in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao, the current basis was - 50, - 190, - 170, and - 140 respectively, with changes of +30, - 10, - 10, and +10. For rapeseed meal in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi, the current basis was - 38, - 38, and - 48 respectively, with changes of +40, 0, and 0 [4]. - Regarding the month - to - month spread, for soybean meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 269, - 48, and 317 respectively, with changes of - 16, +7, and +9. For rapeseed meal, the 59, 91, and 15 spreads were - 173, 74, and 99 respectively, with changes of +11, - 24, and +13 [4]. - The cross - variety spreads: the current spreads of soybean - rapeseed 01 and 09 were 557 and 435 respectively, compared with 565 and 412 yesterday. The oil - meal ratio of 01 was 2.697, compared with 2.699 yesterday. The current spot spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean meal - sunflower meal, and rapeseed meal - sunflower meal were 377, 473, and 116 respectively, with changes of - 51, - 7, and +4 [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - In the US, the old - crop soybean balance sheet is clearly positive. Exports are basically completed, and the crush volume is also increased, resulting in a certain decrease in the ending stocks. For new - crop soybeans, although the yield per unit is increased, the supply is tightened due to a large reduction in the planting area. The cumulative exports of new - crop soybeans are still slow. The new - crop stock - to - use ratio is expected to have limited positive effects. If more positive factors emerge, the US soybean futures may continue to be strong [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybeans are in a situation of relatively loose supply and demand. The soybean production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crush volume will increase by 8.21 million tons. The total ending stocks or exports may increase. The selling progress of Brazilian farmers is relatively slow, and there is still price pressure. However, the relatively high price of Brazilian soybeans is due to the optimistic outlook for future exports [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is still obvious. It is expected that the soybean crush volume in major producing areas will increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the imports of major soybean meal importing countries only increase slightly. The soybean - related market still faces pressure, and the price center is expected to decline [5]. - In China, the domestic soybean meal spot market is still loose. The oil refinery operating rate remains high, the supply is sufficient, and the提货量 also increases. The inventory remains at a high level. The market trading volume increases, mainly in basis trading. There are increasing concerns about the tight supply in the far - month. As of August 15, the actual soybean crush volume of oil refineries was 2.339 million tons, the operating rate was 65.75%, the soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons (4.24%) from last week and a decrease of 243,500 tons (3.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons (1.12%) from last week and a decrease of 481,800 tons (32.2%) year - on - year [7]. - The demand for rapeseed meal in China has gradually weakened recently. The operating rate of oil refineries has decreased, but the overall supply is still sufficient, and the supply pressure remains. Although there are uncertainties in the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand is also weakening. As of the week of August 15, the rapeseed crush volume of major coastal oil refineries was 44,800 tons, and the operating rate this week was 11.94%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week [7]. 3.3 Macroeconomics - The negotiation between China and the US in London has been completed, but the market lacks clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. There are still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market stabilizes, macro - disturbances decrease. Since China still has a high demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the price is not likely to drop significantly in the short - term, especially in the absence of macro - guidance [8]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The domestic soybean meal futures fluctuate mainly because the cost is significantly increased. The current price of US soybeans does not fully reflect the positive factors, and the situation in the monthly supply - demand report is more affected by the exports of US new - crop soybeans, which is also closely related to the domestic soybean meal supply. Therefore, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [9]. - The rapeseed meal market has significantly enlarged price fluctuations. After a large - scale adjustment in the past few days, the price shows some support after the decline. The market generally pays attention to the import of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - term, the positive factors for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. In the future, the rapeseed meal market may need to limit the demand through a lower price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - The month - to - month spread of soybean meal still faces downward pressure, while that of rapeseed meal is expected to be strong, especially for the far - month spread [9].

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 黑色金属日报 2025 年 8 月 19 日 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5678 | -202 | -142 | 372552 | 155765 | 214474 | 18596 | | SM主力合约 | 5914 | -206 | -196 | 193093 | 80701 | 114885 | -27813 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5500 | -50 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 580 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Although there is no inventory accumulation pressure in August due to some device overhauls and increased polyester load, the cost side lacks support as oil prices are under pressure [5]. - For MEG, the short - term price center is expected to adjust within a range. With the recovery of polyester load and active point - pricing by polyester factories, the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September [7]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include planned PTA device overhauls in August and the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negative factors are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was stable, mainly traded among traders, and polyester factories replenished stocks. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The August goods were negotiated and traded around 09 - 10~15, with some lower prices, and a small amount was negotiated around 01 - 56~58, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4690. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 12 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4665, the 01 contract basis is - 81, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, and the short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: In the near term, the processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. There is no inventory accumulation pressure for PTA in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and the changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the basis strengthened moderately. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures were adjusted at a low level, and the market negotiation was fair. Polyester factories were actively pricing at low levels. The mainstream negotiation price of spot goods was around 4434 - 4448 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was running at a low level. The negotiation price of recent shipments was around 519 - 522 US dollars/ton. The market was mainly for inquiries from traders and some suppliers, and the daily transaction price was at the level of 520 - 522 US dollars/ton [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4439, the 09 contract basis is 93, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: The main net short position, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - Expectation: Last week, the polyester load recovered to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased. The demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price center adjustment of ethylene glycol, polyester factories actively participated in point - pricing. The port shipment will improve in the future, and the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, inventory, etc. [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, new production capacity, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, etc. [11] - **Price Data**: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on August 18 and August 15, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and profits of related products [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. Although there are some improvements in the international spot market and the market sentiment has improved due to low valuation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the weak combustion demand persists, despite being gradually approaching the end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1. Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On August 18, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of South China LPG increased by 50 to 4450, the price of Shandong LPG increased by 20 to 4440, the price of propane CFR South decreased by 2 to 561, the price of propane CIF Japan decreased by 7 to 520, and the CP forecast contract price decreased by 2 to 517. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased by 40 to 4890, and the price of Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 30 to 7800. The paper import profit increased by 65 to - 188, and the main basis increased by 60 to 599 [1]. - **Weekly Price and Market Indicators**: The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), the 9 - 10 spread was - 471 (+9), the number of registered warehouse receipts was 12888 lots (+2709). PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12), PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12), FEI - MOPJ was 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. 3.2. Market Conditions - **Domestic Market**: The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4410. The PG futures market was volatile. The rebound was due to the improvement of the international spot market and low valuation. The domestic supply increased while demand was weak, the spot price center shifted downward, and the port inventory decreased by 2.06%, the refinery commodity volume decreased by 1.68%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct) [1]. - **International Market**: The international market was volatile, freight rates were generally high and volatile, and the waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. FEI and CP discounts strengthened significantly [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production gross profit of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased [1].

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