2025.11.24-11.28 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈现区间震荡走势，核心驱动逻辑为美债收益率波动、美 联储政策预期分歧及市场情绪反复。短期来看，金价或延续910-970元/ 克区间震荡；中长期受全球央行购金趋势延续、美联储降息周期预期支 撑，价格中枢有望逐步上移。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2602短期震荡整固，上方压力位960－970元/克，下方 支撑位900-910元/克，建议以观望为主。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2602短期延续震荡，上方压力位960－970元/克，下方支 撑位910-920元/克，建议以观望为主。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 相关数据情况 10000000.00 15000000.00 20000000.00 25000000.00 30 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 天 然 橡 胶 & 2 0 号 胶 日期 美金泰标 现货 美金泰混 现货 人民币混 合胶 上海全乳 上海3L 泰国胶水 泰国杯胶 云南胶水 海南胶水 顺丁橡胶 RU主力 NR主力 2025/11/1 7 1830 1825 14610 14615 15150 56.6 53.0 13900 15700 10600 15315 12355 2025/11/1 8 1830 1820 14580 14595 15150 56.7 53.0 14100 15800 10600 15295 12345 2025/11/1 9 1840 1825 14660 14740 15200 57.0 53.5 14100 15800 10600 15440 12480 2025/11/2 0 1820 1810 14530 14550 15200 57.0 52.9 14100 15800 10600 15250 12320 2025/11/2 1 1825 1815 14560 14540 15200 57.0 53.0 14000 15900 10450 15240 12285 日度变化 5 5 30 -10 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 根据《中国期货市场品种属性研究报告（2025-11-24）》，以下是整理出的核心关键内容摘要，包括关键多空品种、量仓变化、交易机会、风险提示与 核心逻辑： | RollSharpeAbs Px Main | 2025/11/23 | Curve + Status = Px CurveLongShort | Market Status 750D Px. M Percentile 750D Ctgo Percentile 750D Ann.Roll Rtn. | Vol/Roll | Dvol | FastMA | SlowMA | Up/DownRatio MaxDD ResPx MaxDU ResPx | Cigo | Ctgoli | CtgoliAnn Facto | 上证50期货 IH.CFE | 94% | 0.76N | 0.19 | 946.40 | 2.993.36 | 3.027.31 | 147,70% | -7.60 | 0.26% | Maybe Curve Long | Short | 27 ...

港口库存高位回落， 盘面跌幅收窄 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/11/22 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 05 需求端 02 期现市场 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 | 2025 | 期初库存 | 产 量 | 进口量 | 总供应量 | 供应同比 | 国内消费量 | 出口量 | 总需求量 | 需求同比 | 期末库存 | 供需差 | 累计供需差 | 库存 /消费 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 月 | 155 | 850 | 9 5 | 947 | 4 46% . | 955 | 1 | 956 | 3 4% . | 122 | (9) | 7 4 | 12 73% . | | 2 月 | 122 | 779 | 5 6 | 835 | -0 11% . | 810 | 0 | 8 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本周（2025年11月16日--11月21日）交易理想国知识星球共发布37条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 如何看待碳酸锂的跌停 0 1 碳酸锂触及跌停，气势如虹的买盘一夜蒸发，行情走出一根陡峭的阴线，是政策干预与市场基本面的激烈博弈？ 从监管角度看，广期所旨在防止市场过度投机，尤其可能对实体产业造成冲击，这种降温举措是非常及时有效的。 从市场角度看，多头的预期逻辑，事实构成了漫天叫价，有多少梦想在自由地飞翔呢？10万？12万？15万？20万？25万？还是60万？ 是呀，如果大佬预测明年价格能去15万，20万，为什么现在不是10万，或是12万，或是14万，或是14万9？19.9万？ 最后临门一脚，小心轻射，不就15万，20万了吗？ 所有的数字，都是有些人的笑容，有些人的哭泣。 还是先别讨论明年的供需平衡表了吧？真的很有意义吗？或是暂时删掉碳酸锂，如果你的神经不够大条。 甲醇：01 的冬天，05 的春天？ 0 2 为什么 05 合约更值得关注？ 因为 05 是少有的 "基本面可能改善 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 美国就业数据影响市场 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜平开高走，日内下跌。 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日铜平开高走，日内下跌。美国 9 月季调后非农就业人口新增 11.9 万人，预期 5.0 万人，前值由 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人。9 月失业率从前值 4.3%上升至 4.4%，预期 4.3%。11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影响量为 4.80 万 吨，但 10 月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端积极性增加，产量有望上移。 据 SMM 调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行 仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。需求 方面，铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前 置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电力及动力电池新能源外，下游需求表现均不佳。2025 年 10 月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口量为 134304 吨，同比增长 67.8%；进口量为 44 万吨，同比 下降 13.5%。上期所铜库存连续累库目前同比偏高 98.63% ...

Report Title - Corn Bullish in the Short Term, Maintain Low-Buying Strategy; Pig Prices Grinding at the Bottom, Weak Oscillation in the Futures Market; Egg Spot Prices Oscillating at Low Levels, Near-Term Contracts Gaining Premium [2] Report Core Views - Corn is bullish in the short term, and the low-buying strategy remains unchanged. Pig prices are grinding at the bottom, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. Egg spot prices are oscillating at low levels, and near-term contracts are gaining premium [2][4][9][14] Corn Futures Important Information - Deep-processing enterprises' purchase prices in the Northeast and North China regions increased slightly, with the Northeast at 2036 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and North China at 2263 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the price in the northern port was weakly stable, and the southern port was relatively strong. The purchase price of second-grade new-season corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was about 2170 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 573 to 68,764 [4] - The cost-effectiveness of corn for feed increased. As of November 20th, the wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [4] - In October 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 360,000 tons, the highest this year, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90.02% [4] Market Logic - Short term: Spot prices are under pressure from concentrated supply but supported by warehouse purchases. After the seasonal selling pressure is released, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality [4] - Medium term: Conduct band trading around the new-season corn drivers, considering factors such as farmers' selling sentiment and downstream inventory building. Maintain a wide-range trading strategy [4] - Long term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [4] Trading Strategy - Medium and long term: Maintain a range trading strategy; short term: Maintain the short-term low-buying strategy. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2150 - 2160, and the first resistance is at 2200. If it breaks through 2200, the resistance moves up to 2220 - 2230 [5] Pig Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national average pig price was 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. On the 22nd, prices in different regions were expected to be stable or slightly increase [9] - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, and the number in September continued to increase month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply before March next year [9] - As of November 20th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.77 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week [9] - On November 20th, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center announced that from November 24th to 27th, a total of 9,000 tons of central frozen pork will be purchased and 9,000 tons will be sold [9] Market Logic - Short term: Farmers' willingness to hold back sales is increasing, and downstream consumption has improved due to the drop in temperature, leading to a halt in price decline. However, the short-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the upside potential of prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of short-term purchases on market sentiment and the winter epidemic prevention situation [9] - Medium term: The increase in the number of new-born piglets from February to September (except in July) indicates an expected increase in pig supply before March next year, restricting price increases. Pig prices are in a low-level oscillation phase [9] - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no major epidemic, the full-year pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9] Trading Strategy - Spot prices continue to grind at the bottom. Near-term contracts are oscillating to repair the basis. Short term: The price may break through the previous low and weaken further; Medium and long term: Wait for the effectiveness of farmers' capacity reduction. Far-term contracts are trading based on the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. Pay attention to the actual change in the number of sows. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before significant sow reduction [10] Egg Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national egg price was stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - In October, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% and a year-on-year increase of 5.59%. The estimated number of laying hens in November is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [15] Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices are under pressure but also supported. The number of culled hens has increased, slightly relieving the supply pressure. However, the high number of laying hens in production and the rising inventory limit the upside potential. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16] - Medium term: The supply-demand imbalance is difficult to reverse completely. The limited reduction in the age of culled hens and the incomplete release of supply pressure, combined with weak downstream consumption, suggest that prices may continue to trade in a low range. Attention should be paid to the scale and intensity of culling driven by low prices [16] - Long term: The continuous expansion of egg production scale may prolong the price bottoming period. Wait patiently for the capacity reduction process driven by over-culling [16] Trading Strategy - It was suggested in the morning report on Wednesday to gradually close out previous short positions. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. Next week, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to trade the premium of near-term contracts after the price rallies [16] - Medium and long term: Focus on whether the culling behavior driven by low prices can be sustained and whether it can lead to actual capacity reduction. As of now, the capacity cannot be cleared before the second quarter of next year, and supply pressure remains. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the culling situation in the first quarter [16]

双焦：下跌风险得到释放 关注交易逻辑的切换 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年11月21日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 单边：当前焦煤的下跌已经一定程度上计价了现有的利空因素，预计近期盘面震荡运行，建议空单止盈。中期看后期焦钢 企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多 远月合约，同时对于上涨空间持谨慎态度。 套利：焦煤1/5反套可继续持有。 期权：观望 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 近期整体商品情绪偏弱，焦煤本身波动较大，跌幅也靠前。焦煤的下跌，主要是市场预期发生了改变，发改委供暖季能源 保供会议后，前期煤矿减产逻辑弱化，保供逻辑增强。同时基本面上也边际转弱，在阶段性补库后，市场恐高情绪出现， 下游采购积极性减弱，观望情绪强。山西煤竞拍流拍 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is due to the market's consensus on the pressure of supply-demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels [1]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take profit on sold options and focus on long - position opportunities on dips in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1665 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 remained unchanged at 1735 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): Prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, with increases of 0.61%, 0.67%, 0.61%, and 0.62% respectively; prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 7 yuan/ton or 0.14%, and remained unchanged in Jiangsu at 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest was 1674 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1648 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1665 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1661 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 245423 lots [1]. Multi - Short Logic - Valuation: Although urea has rebounded recently, the rebound is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - Driving factors: The new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251121：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/11/21 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,075.00 | -3.35% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 275.00 | 315.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 52,450.00 | -3.98% | | 元/吨 | 基差 | 元/吨 | -1,450.00 | 2,175.00 | | 9,350.00 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.54% | | 元/吨 ...