1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The introduction of offset printing paper futures and options precisely meets the risk management needs of China's cultural paper market, improves the full - cycle risk management system of the pulp and paper industry, and enhances the quality and efficiency of the commodity futures market in serving the real economy. After the listing of offset printing paper futures and options, they are expected to become the "price anchor" of the industry, providing tools for price discovery and risk control for enterprises, helping to form an open, transparent, and authoritative market price, and improving the pricing efficiency of spot trading to guide enterprises to scientifically and reasonably formulate production plans [92]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened (no detailed content provided) [1]. - Futures prices rose, and the monthly spread turned to contango (no detailed content provided) [5]. 3.2 Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The output of rubber - producing countries steadily rebounded, increasing supply pressure (no detailed content provided) [2.1]. - Tire开工率 slightly rebounded (no detailed content provided) [2.2]. - Automobile market sales significantly improved [2.3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the bonded area in Qingdao increased [2.4]. 3.3 Offset Printing Paper Basics - Paper is mainly divided into four categories: cultural paper, packaging paper, tissue paper, and specialty paper. Cultural paper is used for cultural dissemination and includes offset printing paper, which has single - sided and double - sided types. Double - sided offset printing paper (double - gum paper) is the mainstream, with a difference in glue layers compared to single - sided paper. Offset paper has good properties such as tight texture, low stretch, and strong water resistance [10]. 3.4 Double - Gum Paper Basic Characteristics - Quantitative: Generally between 60 - 120 grams, with 70 - 120 grams being the most widely used, and there are also high - quantitative ones like 150, 180, and 300 grams. - Appearance: The cut edges should be neat and clean, with a uniform fiber structure, a flat paper surface, and no defects such as folds, holes, or powder - shedding. - Whiteness: Divided into high - white, natural - white, ivory - white, and beige, with different whiteness ranges. - Size: Flat - paper has domestic and international standard sizes, and can be cut into various specifications; reel - paper has common widths such as 787mm, 1092mm, and 850mm [19][20][21]. 3.5 Offset Printing Paper Quality Standards - The current national standard for offset paper is GB/T30130 - 2023, which came into effect on July 1, 2024. It has made some changes compared to the previous standard, such as modifying some technical terms and adding technical requirements for primary and secondary school students' paper [22]. 3.6 Double - Gum Paper Industry Chain - Upstream: Main raw materials are pulp (including coniferous, broad - leaved, and chemical mechanical pulp), accounting for 70% - 75% of production costs. Chemical auxiliary materials and energy also contribute to costs [24]. - Mid - stream: Through processes such as cooking, washing, screening, bleaching, and coating, pulp is made into double - gum paper [25]. - Downstream: Mainly used in books, brochures, notebooks, and periodicals, with book demand accounting for about 90%. Key demand entities include cultural and media companies and printing factories [26]. 3.7 Double - Gum Paper Supply - Since 2020, domestic double - gum paper production capacity has expanded rapidly. In 2024, the production capacity growth rate was about 9.7%, reaching 1608 million tons. Production is mainly concentrated in East, South, and Central China, with East China having the largest share. - In 2024, the output was about 10.49 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 65%. There is a seasonal pattern in monthly output, with lower production in January and February due to the Spring Festival and higher production from March to May and September to December due to increased demand for teaching materials. - Some paper mills' expansion plans are more inclined to South China in recent years. There is still about 1.75 million tons of new production capacity to be put into production this year, with 1 million tons in South China. The industry concentration is increasing, and the CR4 in 2024 was about 48% [29][30]. 3.8 Double - Gum Paper Demand - China's pulp consumption shows a slow - growing but unstable trend. The apparent consumption of double - gum paper exceeded 9 million tons in 2023 and 2024, reaching 9.72 million tons in 2024. - Export volume is relatively small, accounting for about 10% of annual consumption in 2024. Demand for teaching materials accounts for about 40% of double - gum paper demand. There are obvious seasonal characteristics, with peak demand from March to May and September to December [38]. 3.9 Double - Gum Paper Import and Export - Import policy: Since January 1, 2023, the temporary import tariff rate for double - gum paper has been 0%. - Export policy: The export tax - refund policy for paper and cardboard was cancelled in 2004. - From 2017 - 2024, China generally had a net - export pattern in double - gum paper, except for 2020 - 2021 when it turned to net - import due to the pandemic. In 2024, the import volume was 199,000 tons, and the export volume was 967,600 tons [46][47]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper Inventory - There are two types of inventory: enterprise inventory and social inventory, with social inventory being much larger. In the past five years, enterprise inventory was generally between 40 - 100 million tons, and social inventory was between 100 - 170 million tons. As of December 2024, both were at relatively low levels year - on - year [51]. 3.11 Double - Gum Paper Spot Price - From 2022 to April 2023, prices oscillated upward due to high raw material prices and stable order release. From April to July 2023, prices回调 due to falling pulp prices and downstream hesitation. After July 2023, prices rebounded, and then fluctuated due to various factors such as production line shutdowns, order releases, and trade - capital recovery. In 2024, prices showed a downward trend with some rebounds [55]. 3.12 Offset Printing Paper Futures and Options Contracts and Business Rules - Futures contract: The trading unit is 20 tons/hand, the last trading day is the 15th of the contract month, and the delivery grade is double - gum paper with specific quantitative specifications. - Options contract: The underlying is the offset printing paper futures contract, with call and put options available. - Business rules cover trading, delivery, and risk management aspects, including regulations on trading time, margin, position limits, and delivery procedures [57][59][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [8] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. The scrap copper enterprises are affected by the implementation of the reverse invoicing policy and generally believe that the supply of goods may become tight in the future. However, the demand side is not very optimistic. Although the supply and demand are slightly weak, the macro factors are relatively changeable, and the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. Therefore, it is still recommended to mainly use buy hedging on dips, with the buying range of the Cu2507 contract suggested to be between 77,400 yuan/ton and 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,810 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,720 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on June 25, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,530 - 78,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of flat to 60 yuan/ton for the 2507 contract and an average premium of 30 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The intraday spread between nearby contracts narrowed to 130 - 150 yuan. The market supply of goods tightened, and the premium stabilized. It is expected that the premium will remain stable today, but some tight varieties may rise [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and geopolitical aspects: Trump said that he thought the war between Israel and Iran was over, but the conflict might break out again, perhaps soon, and he would not give up sanctions on Iran. He did not think Iran would restart its nuclear program. The US will hold talks with Iran next week, and he did not think the nuclear deal was necessary. Domestically, the Iranian defense minister arrived in China to attend the SCO defense ministers' meeting [3] Mining End - New World Resources' land reclamation plan for its Antler copper mine project in Arizona has been approved. With the pending state-level permits, the company can start construction on the private land that constitutes most of the Antler project. The Arizona Mining Supervision Bureau approved the plan and accepted a total of A$9.01 million in relevant financial guarantees, which must be finalized within 60 days. New World, which is in a takeover bidding war, plans to meet this requirement through a guaranteed bond arranged with its preferred insurance company. The Antler project is located in a remote area in northern Arizona and is planned as an underground mining operation. Magna Mining received C$500,000 from the Ontario government for the development of its Crean Hill nickel-copper-platinum group metal mine in the brownfield project. Magna said the funds will be used for metallurgical research on improving the recovery of precious metals in the Crean Hill contact zone and footwall mineralization, which is part of its 2024 surface bulk sampling plan. In September last year, the company released the latest economic evaluation of the project, based on more than 30 million tons of mineral resources (including 14.5 million tons of high-grade underground resources) that meet the NI 43 - 101 standard, calculating a post-tax net present value (8% discount rate) of C$194.1 million and a mine life of 13 years [4] Smelting and Import - In April, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, while in March, there was a surplus of 12,000 tons. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year. In April, the global refined copper production was 2.37 million tons, and the consumption was 2.42 million tons [5] Consumption - Recently, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 75.82%, a month-on-month increase of 2.6 percentage points but lower than expected. The mid-year production plan put pressure on processing fees, and the resumption of production by some enterprises drove the output to rebound. The raw material inventory decreased to 34,650 tons (-3.08%), while the finished product inventory increased to 68,350 tons (+7.38%), reflecting weak terminal demand. It is expected that the operating rate will slightly rise to 76.23% next week, and the high copper price may continue to suppress the improvement of demand. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased to 73.26% (a month-on-month decrease of 3.04 percentage points), mainly due to weak terminal demand and the high copper price suppressing procurement. The finished product inventory decreased to 21,190 tons (-5.02%), and the raw material inventory increased to 17,360 tons (+1.58%). It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decrease to 71.64% next week, and the demand decline in the construction industry is particularly significant [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,200 tons to 94,675 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21,470 tons. On June 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 129,600 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons compared with the previous week [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 2025 China Solid-State Battery Technology Development and Market Outlook Summit, highlighting key topics and speakers relevant to the lithium industry and solid-state battery technology [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The summit will take place on July 8-9, 2025, in Shanghai, China [2]. - The event is organized by Xinluo Information, focusing on advancements in solid-state battery technology and market trends [1][2]. Group 2: Forum Topics and Speakers - Keynote topics include: - "Opportunities and Challenges: Trends in Futures and Options for Lithium Carbonate Upstream and Downstream Enterprises" by Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst at Guotou Futures [5]. - "How Lithium Enterprises Respond to Industry Cycle Changes" by Zhang Zaiwu, Deputy Director of R&D at Shandong Ruifu Lithium Industry [5]. - "Key Lithium Salt Preparation Technology and Industrialization for Solid-State Batteries" by Liu Songlin, R&D Engineer at Jiangxi Yunwei New Materials [5]. - "How Lithium Mines Can Utilize Futures and Options Tools to Address Challenges After Continuous Breakthroughs" by Yan Rong, Chief Analyst at Huaxi Securities [5]. - "Discussion on Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot Business Strategies in the Current Market Environment" by Deng Sheng, General Manager at Huqi Capital Management (Guangzhou) [5]. - "2025 Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot Business Practices and Supply-Demand Outlook" by Xu Yulin, Senior Researcher at Mu Luo Information [5]. Group 3: Participation Information - Participation in the summit is free, with sponsorship opportunities available for enterprises [5]. - For registration, interested parties can contact via WeChat at 19921233064 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at a high level, and attention should be paid to LME delivery risks. The borrow strategy for copper can continue to be held, and options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - Alumina supply and demand are expected to return to an excess situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely. After the correction, attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread for arbitrage, and options should be on the sidelines [19][20][22]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between -200 and -1000 yuan, and options should be on the sidelines [26][28][29]. - Zinc prices may decline as inventories accumulate. Consider shorting distant - month contracts on rallies, and be wary of macro - risks. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [33][34][36]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [39][40]. - Nickel prices are oscillating downward. Consider selling call options, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [44][46][48]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak and decline. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines [52][53][56]. - Tin prices face pressure at the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin mine production, and options should be on the sidelines [59][60][61]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand remain in an excess pattern. Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options and Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [66][67]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to decline. Short - term short positions can be considered, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [70][72][73]. - Lithium carbonate prices have limited upside. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and do not bottom - fish. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [76][77][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, up 0.14%, with the Shanghai Copper Index reducing positions by 5,943 lots to 525,200 lots [2]. - Spot: Spot premiums declined in Shanghai, Guangdong, and North China [2]. - **Important Information** - In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, down 9.55% month - on - month and 6.53% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 292,700 tons, down 2.49% month - on - month and 15.64% year - on - year [3][4]. - As of June 23, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to LME delivery risks [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [8]. - Options: On the sidelines [9] Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,906 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 4,632 lots to 430,300 lots [10]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Related Information** - In June, India had a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at an FOB price of 366 dollars/ton. - It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will reach 9.35 - 9.4 billion tons by the end of the month [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies [14]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [15]. - Options: On the sidelines [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 20,365 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 18,755 lots to 665,800 lots [17]. - Spot: Spot prices in East, South, and Central China declined [17]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 92.92GW, up 388.03% year - on - year [18]. - On June 23, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 462,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last Thursday [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment after the price correction [22]. - Arbitrage: Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread [22]. - Options: On the sidelines [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,380 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 130 lots to 9,714 lots [24]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions remained flat [24]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also increased significantly [24]. - On June 23, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 19 tons [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference is between -200 and -1000 yuan [29]. - Options: On the sidelines [29] Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.18% to 21,780 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index increasing positions by 258 lots to 259,600 lots [31]. - Spot: Spot prices in Shanghai were stable, and the premium was stable, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,800 tons, down 1,000 tons from June 16 and 1,800 tons from June 19 [32]. - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain over the weekend, and transportation was restricted [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies for distant - month contracts, be wary of macro - risks [34]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [36]. - Options: On the sidelines [36] Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.39% to 16,930 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index reducing positions by 3,480 lots to 81,000 lots [35]. - Spot: The average price of SMM 1 lead remained flat, and the supply of recycled lead was scarce [38]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot social inventory was 55,700 tons, down about 700 tons from June 16 [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips [40]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [40]. - Options: On the sidelines [40] Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2507 fell 1,340 to 117,440 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 11,384 lots [42]. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased, while that of Russian nickel remained flat [42]. - **Related Information** - PT Gag Nickel will resume operations in West Papua. The Qing Shan Industrial Park in Indonesia will strengthen environmental compliance management [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is oscillating downward, pay attention to macro and nickel ore changes [46]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [47]. - Options: Consider selling call options [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract fell 145 to 12,390 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 25,926 lots [50]. - Spot: Cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices are given [50]. - **Related Information** - Indonesia's first professional anti - corrosion stainless - steel factory was put into operation [51]. - In May, China's stainless - steel imports from Indonesia decreased, and exports to Vietnam increased [51]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is expected to decline weakly [53]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [56]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or 0.05%, with positions decreasing by 524 lots to 49,660 lots [55]. - Spot: Spot prices declined, and the market trading was light [57]. - **Related Information** - In April 2025, the global semiconductor sales were 57 billion dollars, up 2.5% from March 2025 and 22.7% from April 2024 [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to the resumption of tin mine production [60]. - Options: On the sidelines [61] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7,420 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [62]. - Spot: Downstream procurement improved, and spot prices were stable [63]. - **Related Information** - In May, the total social electricity consumption was 809.6 billion kWh, up 4.4% year - on - year [64]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds [67]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [67]. - Arbitrage: Participate in the Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [67] Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract fell 3.33% to 30,615 yuan/ton [68]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [68]. - **Related Information** - From January to May 2025, China's new - installed photovoltaic capacity was 197.85GW, up 150% year - on - year [69]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions [73]. - Options: On the sidelines [73]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract fell 460 to 59,120 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 9,340 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreasing by 1,014 to 26,779 tons [74]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [74]. - **Related Information** - In May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 605,000 tons, slightly down 2.9% month - on - month [75]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies, do not bottom - fish [77]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [78]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to increased disturbances on the cost side [1] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to remain low, demand has short - term resilience, and energy cost increases have boosted sentiment, leading to short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - For silicomanganese, supply has a slight recovery, demand weakens moderately, and supply - side news disturbances cause low - level fluctuations [4] - The trading strategies include a low - level fluctuation outlook for single - side trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options on rallies for options trading [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: After the previous alloy plant overhauls ended, production increased slightly. Given the current profit level, the resumption of production is expected to be limited, and overall supply will likely stay low. Downstream steel demand has entered the off - season, but the decline is not significant. Steel mill blast furnaces had a slight resumption this week, so demand has short - term resilience. Recently, coal prices stabilized, and international crude oil prices rose significantly, increasing energy costs. As an energy - intensive product, ferrosilicon sentiment was boosted, resulting in short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also increased slightly, with the absolute value remaining low. The demand for rebar has entered the off - season, and the weakening is mild according to micro - data. There were multiple news disturbances on the manganese ore supply side, but data shows the supply is currently normal. Due to the low valuation of manganese ore prices, sentiment is prone to repeated disturbances, causing silicomanganese to fluctuate at a low level [4] Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Low - level fluctuations [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [5] - **Options**: Sell call options on rallies [5] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: According to Mysteel data, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 242.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70% of the total demand) was 123,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 32.69%, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The weekly ferrosilicon output was 97,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China was 36.39%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09%. The weekly silicomanganese output (99% of the supply) was 176,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons [9] - **Inventory**: In the week of June 20, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 68,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 205,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [10] Spot Price - Basis - The content provides price and basis data for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi from 2021 to 2025 [13] Double - Silicon Enterprise Production Situation - The content shows the weekly output and operating rate data of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [17] Steel Mill Production Situation - The content presents data on the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, and social steel inventory of 247 steel mills from 2020 to 2025 [21] Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese was 5,605 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 125 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 56.5%. The production cost of Ningxia silicomanganese was 5,689 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 259 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 20.9%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [22] Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon was 5,471 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 371 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 36.6%. The production cost of Ningxia ferrosilicon was 5,427 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 327 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.4%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [30] Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price - The content provides price data for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 to 2025 [37][40] Hebei Representative Steel Mill Double - Silicon Steel Bidding Price - The content shows the monthly procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 from 2020 to 2025 [44] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - The content presents data on the cumulative and monthly output of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53] Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - The content shows data on the monthly net import of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net export of Chinese ferrosilicon from 2012 to 2025 [57] Magnesium Metal Demand - The content provides price data for Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and cumulative production data for Shaanxi Yulin magnesium metal from 2013 to 2025 [58] Alloy Plant vs. Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - The content shows data on alloy plant ferrosilicon inventory, inventory by region, steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days, and inventory available days by region from 2021 to 2025 [61] Alloy Plant, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - The content shows data on steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, inventory available days by region, Tianjin Port manganese ore total inventory, and alloy plant silicomanganese inventory from 2021 to 2025 [64]

Group 1: Aluminum - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The aluminum price is expected to have a high - level shock in the short - term (19800 - 20200) and run at a high level in the medium - term (19200 - 21000). The recommended strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold it [1] - Summary of relevant content: As of May 26, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week and lower than 782,000 tons in the same period last year, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years, which is positive for the aluminum price. From January to April, automobile production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.9% and 10.8%, also positive for the aluminum price [1] Group 2: Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Steel prices are expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under overall pressure in the medium - term. The recommended strategy is to continue selling the call options of ribbed bar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [2][4] - Summary of relevant content: The overall pressure on steel raw material inventory is still large. The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 138.6658 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.68%, but the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a near 5 - year high in the same period. The sample mine clean coal inventory was 480,730 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year increase of 73.71%. The coal washery clean coal inventory was 245,060 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.35% and a year - on - year increase of 33.35%, at the highest level in the same period of the past 5 years. Steel downstream consumption is still poor. For steel plates, export orders are still average and have not recovered to the pre - tax increase level. For building materials, construction is entering the off - season, with insufficient supporting funds for local incremental projects (the sample construction site fund availability rate is 58.87%, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year). This week, the construction steel consumption was 3.1487 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.31% [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Option: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - In April, domestic copper inventories decreased significantly due to a high premium in the Comex market, leading to a global inventory flow to the US, reduced domestic imports, increased domestic maintenance, and significant copper concentrate interference. However, high uncertainties in macro factors and domestic demand outlook caused copper prices to weaken at the end of April. In May, copper prices may remain in a volatile range of approximately 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,620 yuan/ton and closed at 77,330 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 73,810 yuan/ton and closed at 74,060 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the day, due to the widening of the monthly spread, spot arbitrageurs actively sold goods at low prices. The Shanghai electrolytic copper shipment sentiment index was 3.07, and the procurement sentiment was 3.61, up 0.14 and 0.07 respectively from the previous day. The morning quotation for some copper types was at a premium of 220 - 280 yuan/ton, and the price decreased during the second trading session [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The UK and the US reached a trade agreement, retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel and aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK automobile imports. The US may take enforcement actions on imported services, and the UK agreed to a $10 billion Boeing aircraft purchase agreement. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points with a divided vote, and Trump criticized Powell [3] - **Mine End**: JCHX Mining Management plans to acquire a 5% stake in CMH and gain control for a consideration of $10 million and a contingent consideration of $4.4 million or $15.4 million. After the transaction, it will hold 55% of CMH's shares through its subsidiary and lead the development of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine [3] - **Smelting and Import**: As of the end of 2024, Reko Diq's possible reserves include 7.3 million tons of copper and 13 million ounces of gold. Once fully operational, it is expected to produce 240,000 tons/year of copper and 297,000 ounces/year of gold in the first stage, and increase to 460,000 tons/year of copper and 520,000 ounces/year of gold in the second stage's first decade [4] - **Consumption**: In April 2025, the actual output of domestic refined copper rods was 1.0396 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.87% and a year-on-year increase of 19.34%. In May, the estimated output is 996,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.18%. The cumulative estimated output from January to May is 4.5265 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.85%. The capacity utilization rate in April was 67.82%, up 6.41% month-on-month and 8.61% year-on-year [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 194,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on May 6 was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. Copper prices may remain volatile in May, ranging from 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] - **Arbitrage**: Suspended - **Option**: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6]

此外，郑州商品交易所专家孙元瑞对我国商品期权市场的创新成果进行深度解析，重点阐述了国内首个 商品短期期权产品——白糖系列期权的创新规则体系。该期权产品以"低成本、短周期、高弹性" 为核 心优势，通过灵活的合约设计与交易机制，构建起精准化、定制化的短期风险管理框架，为农业生产者 和中小微企业量身打造了高效的风险对冲工具，其创新性的产品特性与显著的服务实体经济效能，在现 场引发热烈反响与广泛讨论。 会议现场，行业精英们带来了精彩纷呈的分享。中信期货研究所农业组负责人李青凭借深厚的专业功 底，对国内外宏观经济形势以及白糖产业供需格局展开了深入剖析。她表示，当下市场环境复杂多变， 白糖产业正面临着较为显著的价格波动风险。在乡村振兴战略的大背景下，实现白糖产业的稳定生产与 供应，已然成为一项极为紧迫的任务。李青研究员的深度分析，为与会者清晰呈现出当前白糖产业的发 展现状与潜在风险。 云南农垦糖业集团总经理助理刘明才在《衍生工具助力云南白糖产业高质量发展案例分享及市场展望》 中，结合企业实践分享宝贵经验。作为集种植、加工、销售于一体的全产业链企业，云南农垦糖业通过 深化垦地合作机制，持续完善蔗糖产业链条。面对白糖市场价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a cautious outlook for the polyolefin and styrene industry, suggesting a "watch and wait" strategy for investors [13]. Core Insights - The polyolefin market is experiencing slight price declines due to weak demand and supply adjustments, with LLDPE and PP prices at 7790 CNY/ton and 7291 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting weekly declines of 1.30% and 0.37% [1][2]. - The styrene market shows a mixed trend, with prices recovering slightly after a weak start, closing at 8123 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 0.17% [4][5]. - Overall, the report indicates that while there are signs of demand recovery, supply pressures and cost factors are likely to keep prices under pressure in the short term [3][6]. Summary by Sections Strategy Recommendations - LLDPE: Anticipated short-term weak fluctuations with support at 7500-7550 CNY/ton and resistance at 7900-7950 CNY/ton [13]. - PP: Expected to remain weak with support at 7150-7200 CNY/ton and resistance at 7450-7500 CNY/ton [13]. - Styrene: Predicted to experience low-level fluctuations with support at 7750-7800 CNY/ton and resistance at 8500-8550 CNY/ton [13]. Futures Market Situation - LLDPE futures closed at 7790 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,767,398 contracts and an increase in open interest by 12,358 contracts [14]. - PP futures closed at 7291 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,384,915 contracts and an increase in open interest by 4,613 contracts [15]. - Styrene futures closed at 8123 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,194,964 contracts and a decrease in open interest by 46,650 contracts [15]. Spot Market Situation - The spot price for LLDPE ranged between 8020-8500 CNY/ton, while PP prices varied from 7170-7430 CNY/ton depending on the region [2]. - Styrene spot prices were reported at 8175 CNY/ton in East China and 8375 CNY/ton in South China [5]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Polyethylene production rates decreased slightly to 81.63%, while polypropylene rates increased to 83.48% [2]. - Styrene production rates were reported at 74.68%, with expectations of further supply tightening due to upcoming maintenance [6]. Inventory Levels - As of March 14, total oil inventory was 805,000 tons, with polyethylene trade inventory at 175,940 tons and polypropylene social trade inventory at 46,510 tons [3][6].

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年02月27日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃小幅上涨，LLDPE05合约收7912元/吨， 涨1.22%，持仓变化+5737手，PP05合约收7370元/吨，涨0.78% ，持仓变化-31965手。 现货市场：聚乙烯现货价部分下跌，贸易商随行出货，下游心态谨 慎，部分逢低小单补仓，国内LLDPE市场主流价格在8000-8650元 /吨；PP市场，价格窄幅整理，临近月底，部分货源略偏少，但下 游采购意愿不高，交投氛围一般，华北拉丝主流价格在7200-7330 元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在7280-7430元/吨，华南拉丝主流价格 在73 ...