光期研究 见微知著 棉花策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：在质疑中前行 p 2 棉花：在质疑中前行 总 结 供应端：2025/26年度全球棉花产量同比增加，当前仍是北半球棉花供应压力高峰期，且仍将持续一段时间，上方压力不容忽视。 1、USDA11月报预计，2025/26年度全球棉花产量预计值为2614.5万吨，环比增加52.3万吨，同比增加0.7%。其中美国棉花产量预计为307.4万吨，环比调增19.6万吨；巴 西棉花产量408.9万吨，环比调增10.9万吨；中国棉花产量预计值为729.4万吨，环比调增21.8万吨。2、当前国内棉花采摘、交售已经基本结束。据同花顺数据，截至11 月20日，新棉加工量为463.1万吨，同比增加140万吨，新棉加工率64.2%，同比增加4.3%。3、截至11月27日，全国棉花公检量404.89万吨，较去年同比增加53.94万吨， 其中新疆地区公检量398.38万吨。 需求端：下游新疆地区纺织企业利润较好，开机稳定，10月服装鞋帽、针、纺织品零售额 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **International**: The November USDA monthly report was restarted, with adjustments significantly bearish for the market. The USDA substantially increased the global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, including major producers like the US, China, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was only slightly adjusted upwards, leading to a notable rise in global ending stocks compared to September and a return to inventory accumulation. US cotton production was significantly increased due to a marked improvement in yield, while exports were only raised by 40,000 tons, significantly increasing the sales pressure on US cotton. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment to the export target, but it depends on the negotiation situation between the US and other regions. Currently, with the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, there is significant short - term supply pressure, and global textile end - consumption remains weak. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, with limited further downward potential, but the upward drive is unclear and may be volatile. The focus should be on the subsequent sales of US cotton [5]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. As the cotton harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, the expected cotton production has recently rebounded after several adjustments, with the expected production in Xinjiang this year maintained at 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. Since the fourth quarter is still the period of concentrated listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are seasonally rising, and there is sufficient short - term supply. Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging positions. On the demand side, downstream demand has been weak since entering the off - season of the textile industry, but spinning profits have generally improved, and the pressure on finished product inventories is acceptable, without forming an obvious negative feedback, so the downward space of the market is also limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the expansion of downstream production capacity has increased domestic cotton consumption, and consumption in the new season is expected to remain resilient. With the expected low level of imports, the domestic supply - demand situation in the new season is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [6]. Strategy In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the center of cotton prices is expected to move up. It is recommended to build long positions in distant contracts on dips [7]. Summary by Directory 2025 Cotton Market Review - **ICE US Cotton**: Throughout 2025, ICE US cotton showed a volatile downward trend under the influence of loose global supply and external macro - pressure. Although there were periodic rebounds, the overall strength was weak. In the first half of the year, international industry news was relatively quiet. In early April, the market accelerated its decline due to the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy but quickly recovered later. In the second half of the year, due to the good yield expectations of major cotton - producing countries, the market continuously traded on the expectation of global bumper harvests, and combined with the poor performance of US cotton export contracts, the US cotton futures price continued to weaken [1][11]. - **Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton market had five main stages throughout the year. From January to March, it fluctuated, with the post - holiday downstream trading improving after the negative tariff policy was exhausted, but the tariff issue resurfaced at the end of February, causing the price to decline. From April to June, it bottomed out and rebounded. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, Zhengzhou cotton gapped down and plunged due to Trump's announcement of high - tariff policies, but rebounded as Sino - US trade relations eased. From July to August, it first rose and then fell back, followed by a relatively strong fluctuation. In July, the domestic commercial inventory was rapidly depleted, and the supply shortage expectation at the end of the year increased, and the price climbed continuously but then fell back from the high. In August, the tariff extension and tight spot supply supported the relatively strong fluctuation. In September, it accelerated its decline as new cotton was about to be listed and the yield increase expectation was strengthening, and the demand was weak. From October to the present, it fluctuated within a range. After the National Day, as the harvest progress accelerated, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, and Zhengzhou cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, but the upward space was limited by hedging pressure [12]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global: The ending stocks for the 25/26 season were significantly increased, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose The November USDA report was the first after the US government ended the shutdown. The USDA significantly increased the global cotton production by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to September, including increases in the US, Brazil, and China. Global cotton consumption was only slightly increased by 10,000 tons to 25.88 million tons, with the increase in consumption far less than the increase in supply. Due to a slight increase in the beginning stocks, the ending stocks were increased by 610,000 tons compared to September and 310,000 tons year - on - year. The new - season global cotton market supply - demand outlook is relatively loose [16]. US: The USDA increased US cotton production, and the export target is still uncertain The USDA increased US cotton production by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons in November, mainly due to the significant improvement in yield. The new - season US cotton export volume was slightly increased by 40,000 tons to 2.66 million tons. However, the US cotton sales progress is still significantly behind compared to previous years, and it is still uncertain whether the export target can be achieved, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment. As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress was 71%, behind the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought situation has slightly expanded, but its impact on cotton growth has weakened [19][20][23]. India: The yield is expected to remain stable year - on - year, and there are differences in import and consumption estimates The USDA made few adjustments to India's cotton supply - demand this month. The 25/26 season's cotton yield is estimated to be 5.23 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; imports are estimated to be 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons year - on - year; consumption is estimated to be 5.44 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; exports are estimated to be 280,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons year - on - year; and ending stocks are estimated to be 2.29 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. The India Cotton Association (CAI) has different estimates, with a decrease in yield, an increase in imports, a decrease in domestic demand, a decrease in exports, and an increase in ending stocks compared to the previous year [30]. Brazil: The yield increase expectation for the 25/26 season is stable, but the export target is challenging According to the November USDA report, Brazil's cotton production for the 25/26 season was increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons compared to September, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA also slightly increased Brazil's cotton export volume by 40,000 tons to 3.16 million tons, and the ending stocks were increased by 60,000 tons compared to September and 160,000 tons year - on - year. The current sales progress of Brazilian cotton is still significantly behind, and the overseas textile and clothing export performance is weak, so the subsequent export of Brazilian cotton still faces significant pressure [33]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA: Continuously increased domestic cotton production, showing a slight inventory accumulation in the new season The November USDA report significantly increased China's cotton production for the 25/26 season by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year, and slightly increased imports by 40,000 tons to 1.18 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. The ending stocks were increased by 260,000 tons compared to September and 70,000 tons compared to the 24/25 season, showing a slight inventory accumulation [36]. BCO: Slightly increased the consumption for the 25/26 season, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose In November, the Cotton Information Network (BCO) made few adjustments to the domestic supply - demand data for the 25/26 season. The national production was stable at 7.42 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year. Imports remained at the estimated 1.2 million tons. The annual spinning cotton consumption expectation was increased by 60,000 tons, and other consumption was decreased by 30,000 tons. Exports remained at 20,000 tons. The ending stocks were decreased by 30,000 tons to 6.33 million tons, but still increased by 170,000 tons year - on - year, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose [40][41]. Purchase and Sale: The new cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the yield increase expectation is further strengthened As of November 20, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.9%, the delivery rate was 98.1%, the processing rate was 64.2%, and the sales rate was 27.9%, all higher than the same period last year and the four - year average. The expected new cotton production is 7.432 million tons, and the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton is 7.351 million tons, an increase of 755,000 tons year - on - year [44]. Import: The import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the new season The domestic cotton import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. Although the tariff on US cotton imports has been reduced, the expected increase in domestic cotton production and the limited quota are expected to keep the new - season import volume at a low level. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 66.9% year - on - year [46][48]. Inventory: The commercial inventory turned positive year - on - year, with significant short - term supply pressure In October, the domestic new cotton was listed in large quantities, and the commercial inventory increased rapidly, turning positive year - on - year. As of the end of October 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial inventory and available inventory also increased [51]. Direct Downstream: Mainly for raw material procurement based on rigid demand, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable The downstream demand is currently not strong but still has some resilience. The cotton yarn market has entered the off - season, with a decline in orders. The Xinjiang market is stable without inventory pressure. The grey fabric market is differentiated, with the clothing category weak and the home textile category having continuous sales. The weaving mills' inventory is low, and they mainly purchase as needed. The spinning profit has improved, and the inventory pressure on finished products is not large, but attention should be paid to the subsequent foreign trade orders [61]. Terminal Consumption: Domestic demand is growing steadily, and the foreign trade is under pressure but the export environment is expected to improve Domestically, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles have achieved stable growth this year. In October, the retail sales were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales were 1.2053 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Externally, textile and clothing exports continued to be under pressure in October. However, the Sino - US negotiation has achieved substantial progress, and the export tariff has been reduced, which is expected to improve the export competitiveness. In the last two months of the fourth quarter, exports to the US are expected to pick up slightly, and the foreign trade export environment is expected to improve next year [70][71]. 2026 Cotton Market Outlook - **International**: The November USDA report is bearish for the market. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere and weak global textile end - consumption. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space, but the upward drive is unclear, and attention should be paid to the subsequent sales [81]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton consumption is expected to be resilient, and the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [82].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度 产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口 222.62亿美元，同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14 万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存845万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14832，基差1187（01合约 ...

Report Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Globally in the 2025/26 cotton season, supply increases with major producers maintaining high levels, consumption is expected to see slight growth, and trade policies and Fed's interest - rate cuts will impact cotton prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely [2][55]. - In the domestic market for the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply significantly increases, new - cotton costs change little, textile enterprise inventories are at a healthy level, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [3][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **ICE Cotton Futures**: The annual trend is divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of September, it was in a wide - range weak oscillation. From October to the end of the year, it further weakened due to macro - negatives and weak fundamentals [5][6]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures**: The annual trend has four stages. It oscillated and then dropped rapidly from the beginning of the year to early April, rebounded from mid - April to mid - July, oscillated from mid - July to late September, and weakened again from late September to the end of the year [7][8]. 2. International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand situation is slightly looser. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 63.9%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024/25. Production rises by 300,000 tons, consumption increases slightly by 90,000 tons, and ending inventory increases by 390,000 tons [13]. - **US Cotton**: The USDA raised the 2025/26 production forecast to 14.12 million bales, up 900,000 bales from the September report. Exports are expected to increase to 1.22 million bales, and ending inventory is up 20% to 4.3 million bales. Good weather led to a significant increase in yield [15][16]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: The USDA's November report shows a production forecast of 4.09 million tons, up 110,000 tons month - on - month, and exports are expected to reach 3.16 million tons. Although Brazilian cotton exports were strong in the first three quarters of 2025, future exports may face more competition [22][23]. - **Indian Cotton**: The 2025/26 initial inventory is expected to rise to about 1.03 million tons, a 55% increase. Production is expected to be 5.19 million tons, down 130,000 tons. Domestic consumption is expected to slow to 5.1 million tons. With sufficient supply and increased imports, exports may increase [25][26]. - **Global Economy**: The global economy is showing signs of a mild slow - down. The Fed is in an easing cycle, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in 2026. Tariff policies may lead to a re - structuring of the global textile supply chain [29][30]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production is expected to reach 7.3 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.18 million tons, and consumption is slightly lower than the previous year. Overall, the supply - demand situation is slightly looser [31]. - **Production and Cost**: The USDA estimates the 2025/26 cotton production at 7.3 million tons, while domestic estimates are higher at 7.42 million tons. New - cotton costs are relatively low, with the average machine - picked cotton seed - cotton purchase price in Xinjiang between 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg [35][36]. - **Imports**: It is expected that imports in the 2025/26 season will increase slightly to 1.2 million tons. The reduction of tariffs on US cotton imports from 25% to 15% is expected to promote imports [40]. - **Textile Industry**: Since the second half of 2025, the textile industry has been relatively healthy, with a decrease in pure - cotton yarn inventory and an increase in the industry's prosperity index. In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic sales of textiles and clothing continued to grow moderately [45][46]. - **Exports**: In 2025, the export of textiles and clothing faced complex situations. With the narrowing of the effective tax - rate gap between China and Southeast Asian countries, direct exports to the US are expected to increase significantly in 2026 [50][51]. 4. Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply increases, consumption may see slight growth, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to trade - policy changes [55]. - **Domestic Market**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply increases, new - cotton costs change little, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [56].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度 产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口 222.62亿美元，同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14 万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存845万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14779，基差1294（01合约 ...

期货研究报告|农产品组专题报告 2025-11-18 11 月 USDA 棉花供需报告解读 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 国内方面，国庆后随着采收进度加快，由于南疆部分区域受脱叶剂效果不佳以及天气 变化影响，出现亩产同比减少和衣分偏低的情况，使得市场对于新棉产量预期下滑， 籽棉收购价也震荡走强，推动郑棉期价一度反弹至 13600 元/吨上方。不过盘面上涨后 面临较强的套保压力，且近期新疆产量预期又再度上升，而国内下游旺季特征并不明 显，中美关税利好影响下订单也仅有零星好转。当前进入纺织行业淡季，内地下游需 求开始呈现偏弱态势，纺企对棉花原料随用随采，需求面支撑不足。不过纺纱利润整 体有所改善，且当前成品库存压力尚可，盘面下行空间预计受限。 ◼ 策略 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The November USDA report shows that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September, while the global consumption has been slightly adjusted upwards by 11,000 tons. The import and export have both been increased by 65,000 tons. The期末 inventory has been significantly increased by 607,000 tons. The report is overall bearish, and the global cotton supply remains relatively loose in the new season. In the short - to - medium term, US cotton may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025/26 Season Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September. China's production has been increased by 218,000 tons to 7.294 million tons, Brazil's by 108,000 tons, and US cotton production by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons due to favorable weather in Texas and an increase in yield [1]. - **Consumption**: Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upwards by 11,000 tons, with no adjustments to the data of major consuming countries. Cotton consumption remains generally stable despite the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - **Import and Export**: Global imports have been increased by 65,000 tons, with Vietnam's imports up by 21,000 tons and China's by 44,000 tons. Global exports have also been increased by 65,000 tons, with Brazil's exports up by 44,000 tons and the US's by 43,000 tons [1]. - **期末库存**: The global期末库存 in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 607,000 tons compared to September. China's期末库存 has been increased by 261,000 tons, the US's by 152,000 tons, and Brazil's by 65,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 (November), the production of major cotton - producing countries such as China, Brazil, and the US has shown different trends. The total global production has increased by 174,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November) [4]. - **Consumption**: The total global consumption has decreased by 35,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with minor adjustments in different countries [4]. - **Import**: The total global import has increased by 212,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with significant increases in Vietnam and China [4]. - **Export**: The total global export has increased by 342,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with significant increases in Brazil and the US [4]. - **期末库存**: The total global期末库存 has increased by 315,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with increases in major countries such as China, the US, and Brazil [4].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The November 2025/26 USDA report shows a significant increase in global cotton production, while consumption remains relatively stable, resulting in a looser supply situation. The report is overall bearish, and in the medium to short term, US cotton may continue to trade in a low - range oscillation [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in 2025/26 was significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September. China's production was raised by 218,000 tons to 7.294 million tons; Brazil's by 108,000 tons; and US cotton production was sharply increased by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons due to favorable weather in Texas and an increase in yield per unit [1]. - **Consumption**: Global consumption was slightly increased by 11,000 tons, with no major adjustments to the data of major consuming countries. Despite the easing of Sino - US relations, overall cotton consumption remains stable [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: Global imports were increased by 65,000 tons, with Vietnam's imports up by 21,000 tons and China's by 44,000 tons. Global exports were also increased by 65,000 tons, with Brazil's exports up by 44,000 tons and the US's by 43,000 tons [1]. - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in 2025/26 were significantly increased by 607,000 tons compared to September. China's ending stocks were up by 261,000 tons, the US's by 152,000 tons, and Brazil's by 65,000 tons [2]. Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 11, the total global cotton production increased from 24.894 million tons to 26.145 million tons, with a monthly increase of 523,000 tons and an annual increase of 174,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Consumption**: The total global cotton consumption increased from 25.193 million tons in 2021/22 to 25.883 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 11,000 tons and an annual decrease of 35,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Imports**: The total global cotton imports increased from 9.344 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.581 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 65,000 tons and an annual increase of 212,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Exports**: The total global cotton exports increased from 9.29 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.58 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 65,000 tons and an annual increase of 342,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - **Ending Stocks**: The total global ending stocks increased from 15.501 million tons in 2021/22 to 16.532 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 607,000 tons and an annual increase of 315,000 tons in 2025/26 [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a short - term oscillatory decline. Although there was a short - term agreement in Sino - US negotiations and the subsequent export tariff to the US was reduced by 10%, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. The poor textile export data in October also contributed to the decline. However, due to cost support, the downside space is limited. It is currently an opportunity for medium - to - long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and layout far - month contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Prompt No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons; USDA's 9 - month report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons; the Rural Ministry's November forecast shows a production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. - **Export and Import Data**: In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. In September, China imported 1 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 1.3 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: - **Positive Factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for this part was found in the provided text.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（11.3-11.7） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万 吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：9月纺织品服装出口244.2亿美元，同比 下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少18.7%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。 农村部10月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万吨。 目前新棉逐步上市，产量可能比之前预估有所减少。对美出口关税比前期降低10%。期货主力 01短期13500附近有支撑，预计延续震荡偏多思路。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 ...