智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，全球银、铜价再创历史新高。由于供应的扰动持续，长单的 海外溢价远超出市场预期，结合降息预期乐观，宏观和基本面共振，11月末，银和铜价翘尾收涨，并于 12月初现货价格再度刷新历史高位。后市来看，基本面的结构性矛盾存在，长期银价和铜价上涨的逻辑 不变。国际油价维持震荡，市场对前期俄乌和平会谈的预期有所回落，叠加"暧昧"的美委局势计入价 格，油价有小幅向上修复的迹象，WTI短暂突破60美元/桶。但从当前的驱动因素来看，国际油价仍然 处于偏弱震荡区间。 中信建投主要观点如下： 动态信息 行业综述：从交运各子板块相对沪深300的表现来看，本周(12月1日-12月5日)交运板块整体上涨。本周 物流综合板块上涨1.24%，其中原材料供应链服务板块上涨0.89%。 全球银、铜价再创历史新高 由于供应的扰动持续，长单的海外溢价远超出市场预期，结合降息预期乐观，宏观和基本面共振，11月 末，银和铜价翘尾收涨，并于12月初现货价格再度刷新历史高位。1日晚间，伦敦银现货价格盘中最高 冲至57.862美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录;4日国内现货铜价格升至91145元/吨，同比上涨22.06%。后市来 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价震荡反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.72 美元至 59.67 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.22%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.59 美元至 63.26 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.94%。SC2601 以 456.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 5.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 1.15%。由于严重风暴和近期的无人机袭击扰乱了装载 | | | | 作业，俄罗斯黑海港口 Novorossiysk 港和里海管道联盟 CPC 终端 | | | | 11 月的石油出口量较原计划减少约 100 万吨。行业人士称， | | | | Novorossiysk 港 11 月乌拉尔原油、西伯利亚轻质原油和 KEBCO | | | | 原油的装船计划量约为 320 万吨，但实际出口仅达到约 250 万吨。 | | | 原油 | 市场调查结果显示，尽管 OPEC 同意提高 11 月份的原油产量， | 震荡 | | | 但由 ...

| 原油产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 2025年12月5日 | | | | | | | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 12月4日 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent 63.26 | | 62.67 | 0.59 | 0.94% | | | WTI 59.67 | | 58.95 | 0.72 | 1.22% | 美元/桶 | | SC 451.30 | | 449.30 | 2.00 | 0.45% | 元/神 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.04 | 6.56% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.61 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 22.00% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | -1.50 | -1.30 | -0.20 | 15.38% | 元/神 | | Brent-WTI | 3.59 | 3.72 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices, and the overall oil price continues to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply. The price of fuel oil is expected to remain weak due to the relatively pessimistic view on oil prices in December [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI January contract closed up 0.31 dollars to 58.95 dollars/barrel, a 0.53% increase; Brent February contract closed up 0.22 dollars to 62.67 dollars/barrel, a 0.35% increase; SC2601 closed at 450.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.6 yuan/barrel, a 0.36% increase. US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week, while the Cushing crude inventory decreased. Refinery processing volume and capacity utilization increased. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed down. The east - west arbitrage window closure may reduce the inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes to Singapore in December, but the inventory in Singapore remains sufficient. The high - sulfur fuel oil market in December is also expected to have sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up. In November, the supply and demand of asphalt were both weak. In December, supply will further decrease, and winter storage demand will gradually start [2][3]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX closed down on Wednesday. At the end of the year, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and the cost of PX is under pressure. TA prices are expected to oscillate with costs, and ethylene glycol prices are expected to adjust widely [3]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contracts closed down. The rubber market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and return to normal in the medium term [3][5]. - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2122 yuan/ton. In December, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and imports will fall from a high level. The overall demand for olefins is expected to increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins were at a low level. In December, supply will increase, and demand will weaken. If the crude oil price remains stable, polyolefins will tend to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market price oscillated weakly. In December, production will continue to increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline. However, due to factors such as the narrowing of the hedging space and the removal of export restrictions, the PVC price may tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 3, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The expectation that US and Western sanctions on Russian crude oil exports cannot be lifted in the short term has supported oil prices. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][22][25][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][33][34][36][37][38]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - commodity contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][63]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [71][72][73][74].

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI January contract closing at $58.95 per barrel, up $0.31, a 0.53% increase, while Brent February contract closed at $62.67 per barrel, up $0.22, a 0.35% increase [3][18] - EIA reported an increase in U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, with crude oil inventory rising by 574,000 barrels to 427.503 million barrels as of November 28 [3][18] - Refinery crude processing increased by 433,000 barrels per day, with refinery capacity utilization rising by 1.8 percentage points to 94.1% [3][18] - Geopolitical tensions remain, particularly with the explosion on the Druzhba pipeline segment, but supply disruptions have been limited, leading to a continued oscillation in oil prices [3][18] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.3% to 22,437 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.59% to 3,017 yuan per ton [4][19] - China's independent refineries' operating rate increased to 70.53%, up 0.49 percentage points from the previous week [4][19] - The closure of the arbitrage window between East and West is expected to reduce low-sulfur fuel oil inflows to Singapore, while supply remains ample [4][19][20] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.41% to 2,952 yuan per ton, with total domestic asphalt inventory at 26.01%, up 0.12% week-on-week [6][21] - Domestic asphalt supply is expected to decrease further in December, but the decline may be limited due to low demand in northern regions [6][21] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 150 yuan per ton to 15,210 yuan per ton, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [7][22] - Market dynamics are influenced by the timing of rubber tapping in Thailand and the registration of new warehouse receipts [7][22] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4,730 yuan per ton, down 0.46%, while EG2601 closed at 3,822 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [8][23] - The PX futures contract closed at 6,908 yuan per ton, with downstream demand gradually weakening as year-end approaches [8][23] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,122 yuan per ton, with expectations of a slight decrease in domestic production in December [9][24] - The overall demand for methanol is anticipated to increase due to the restart of certain production facilities [9][24] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6,300 to 6,500 yuan per ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][25] - Supply is expected to increase as previously shut facilities resume operations, while demand is projected to weaken [10][25] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed a weak trend, with the market facing limited support from downstream demand due to a slowdown in real estate construction [11][27] - The supply side is expected to grow as maintenance periods for enterprises are at a low, but overall demand remains weak [11][27] Urea - Urea prices remained firm, with some regions seeing price increases of 10 yuan per ton, supported by strong demand from agricultural and compound fertilizer sectors [12][28] - The industry’s daily production rate was reported at 192,500 tons, with a slight increase from the previous day [12][28] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained stable, with the market experiencing a slight decline in certain regions [13][29] - The industry operating rate is fluctuating around a high level, but demand remains weak due to low production in downstream sectors [13][29] Glass - The glass market showed a stable performance with an average price of 1,101 yuan per ton, although some regions are experiencing price adjustments [14][30] - Demand remains relatively positive, but the core limiting factor is weak downstream demand, affecting procurement levels [14][30]

塞尔维亚NIS炼厂因制裁关停 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌68美分，收于每桶58.64美元，跌幅为1.15%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌72美分，收于每桶62.45美元，跌幅为1.14%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.75%，报450 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 针对美国总统特朗普当地时间12月2日声称哥伦比亚可能因毒品问题而"遭受攻击"的言论，哥伦比亚总统佩特 罗当天通过社交媒体警告说，切勿威胁哥方主权，"侵犯我们的主权即宣战"。当天早些时候，特朗普在白宫的内 阁会议上对媒体称，哥伦比亚境内的制毒窝点制造可卡因并销往美国，任何向美国"贩毒"的国家都将"遭受攻击"。 （来源：Bloomberg） 3、 塞尔维亚总统武契奇表示，已达成协议，将在本周末前确保俄罗斯持股的塞尔维亚石油公司（NIS）的支付交 易安全，美国并未暂停对NIS炼油厂的制裁，同时，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司在塞尔维亚的炼油厂将在数日内关 闭。（来源：Bloomberg） 原油日报 | 2025-12-03 4、 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯将继续以具有竞争力的价格 ...

一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘下跌 0.68 美元至 58.64 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.15%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘下跌 0.72 美元至 62.45 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.14%。SC2601 以 449.9 元/桶收盘，下跌 3.4 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 0.75%。地缘方面，俄总统普京和美国特使威特科夫举 | | | | 行会晤。此前，美乌代表团围绕美方提出的俄乌"和平计划"在 | | | | 美国佛罗里达州举行会谈。美国国务卿表示，双方在日内瓦会谈 | | | | 基础上又取得一些进展，但"有更多工作要做"。乌克兰总统泽 | | | | 连斯基表示，当天的谈判"具有建设性"，对所有议题都进行了 | | | 原油 | 坦诚讨论，以确保乌克兰主权和国家利益。俄罗斯黑海 Tuapse 港 | 震荡 | | | 的石油产品出口量预计在 12 月增至 112.3 万吨，较 11 月最初计 | | | | 划的 89.5 万吨/日增长 21.4%。与此同时，根据 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing at $58.64 per barrel, down $0.68, a decrease of 1.15% [2][17] - Brent February contract closed at $62.45 per barrel, down $0.72, a decrease of 1.14% [2][17] - Russian oil product exports from Tuapse port are expected to increase to 1.123 million tons in December, a 21.4% increase from the initial plan of 895,000 tons per day in November [2][17] - OPEC+ members will begin annual oil production capacity assessments starting next year, which will inform production quotas for 2027 [2][17] - Despite cautious production increase plans from OPEC+, limited support for oil prices is anticipated, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.2% to 2469 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil rose by 0.63% to 3035 yuan per ton [18][19] - The closure of the arbitrage window between East and West is expected to reduce the volume of low-sulfur fuel oil arriving in Singapore in December [18][19] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to face ample supply due to stable demand [18][19] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 2.41% to 2916 yuan per ton [20] - November showed weak supply and demand characteristics, with total domestic asphalt supply expected at 2.53 million tons, a 15.2% decrease month-on-month [20] - Supply is expected to decrease further in December, but the decline may be limited due to low demand in northern regions [20] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 110 yuan per ton to 15360 yuan per ton [21] - Global natural rubber production is forecasted to increase by 2.7% in October to 1.496 million tons, while consumption is expected to decrease by 4.2% [21] - The rubber market is anticipated to remain volatile due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [21] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4752 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, while EG2601 closed at 3877 yuan per ton, down 0.13% [22] - PX futures closed at 6912 yuan per ton, down 0.26%, with spot prices at $851 per ton [22] - Downstream demand is gradually weakening, with polyester production remaining resilient but lacking strong momentum [22] Methanol - Methanol prices showed slight fluctuations, with Taicang spot prices at 2132 yuan per ton [22] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decline in December, while import volumes are anticipated to decrease from high levels [22] - Overall, methanol prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with a focus on strategies involving methanol and polyolefins [22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China range from 6320 to 6500 yuan per ton, with various production margins reported [23][24] - Supply is expected to increase as previously shut facilities resume operations, while downstream orders are anticipated to weaken [24] - The market is expected to experience bottom-side fluctuations if crude oil prices remain stable [24] PVC - PVC market prices in East China showed a slight upward trend, with various grades priced between 4480 and 4700 yuan per ton [25] - Supply is expected to grow as maintenance periods for enterprises are low, but demand from the real estate sector is anticipated to weaken [25] - PVC prices may trend towards the bottom due to improved basis and reduced export barriers [25] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, closing at 1687 yuan per ton, with slight fluctuations in the spot market [26] - Supply levels are gradually decreasing as some gas-based enterprises reduce output [26] - Demand remains supported by essential needs and reserve requirements, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [26] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated, closing at 1183 yuan per ton, with stable spot market prices [27] - Supply is expected to increase as more facilities resume operations, while demand remains focused on low-price replenishment [27] - The market is expected to remain in a bottom range due to weak driving factors [27] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a slight decline, closing at 1034 yuan per ton, while the spot market remained firm [28] - The industry is experiencing frequent changes in production lines, with stable daily melting capacity [28] - Demand remains positive, but new driving factors are limited, leading to a slight market sentiment decline [28]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心上移，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.77 美元至 59.32 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.32%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.79 美元至 63.17 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.27%。SC2601 以 453.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 0.2 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.04%。OPEC 发表声明，OPEC 和非 OPEC 产油国 | | | | 中的 8 个主要产油国决定，维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，在 2026 | | | | 年一季度暂停增产。沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿拉伯联合 | | | | 酋长国、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举 | | | | 行线上会议，讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。声明称，由于季节 | | | 原油 | 性因素，上述国家决定在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产步 | 震荡 | | | 伐，产量与 2025 年 12 月保 ...

短多维持持有 结构空配继续 原油周报 2025/11/29 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 202 ...