Core Insights - Australia's overall consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate for November 2025 is 3.4%, down from 3.8% in October and below the market expectation of 3.8% [1] - This marks the first decline in the CPI after four consecutive months of increases [1] - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slightly decreased from 3.3% to 3.2% [1] Inflation Drivers - The primary drivers of the November inflation rate increase were a 5.2% rise in housing prices, followed by a 3.3% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, and a 2.7% rise in transportation prices [1] - The year-on-year goods inflation rate decreased from 3.8% in October to 3.3%, while the services inflation rate fell from 3.9% to 3.6% [1] Price Changes by Category - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3.3% year-on-year in November - Alcohol and tobacco prices rose by 4.2% - Clothing and footwear prices saw a 4.6% increase - Housing prices increased by 5.2% - Furniture, household equipment, and services prices rose by 1.4% - Health prices increased by 3.6% - Transportation prices rose by 2.7% - Communication prices increased by 1.3% - Recreation and culture prices rose by 2.3% - Education prices saw a significant increase of 5.4% - Insurance and financial services prices rose by 2.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's consumer price index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate for November 2025 is 3.4%, a decrease from 3.8% in October and below the market expectation of 3.8% [1] Inflation Metrics - The trimmed mean inflation rate, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slightly decreased from 3.3% in the previous month to 3.2% [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation target range is set at 2-3% [1] Key Drivers of Inflation - The primary drivers of the November inflation rate increase include: - Housing prices rose by 5.2% - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 3.3% - Transportation prices went up by 2.7% [1] Specific Price Changes - Year-on-year price changes for November include: - Food and non-alcoholic beverages: 3.3% - Alcohol and tobacco: 4.2% - Clothing and footwear: 4.6% - Housing: 5.2% - Furniture, household equipment, and services: 1.4% - Health: 3.6% - Transportation: 2.7% - Communication: 1.3% - Recreation and culture: 2.3% - Education: 5.4% - Insurance and financial services: 2.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's overall inflation rate is expected to remain above the central bank's target of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive month, with a projected year-on-year increase in the consumer price index (CPI) of 2.3% for December, slightly lower than November's 2.4% [1] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The median forecast from a survey of nine economists indicates a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.3% for December [1] - December's CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, contrasting with a decrease of 0.2% in November [1] Group 2: Economic Insights - The chief economist at IM Securities, Park Sang-hyun, noted that while the depreciation of the Korean won is increasing import prices and intensifying inflationary pressures, stabilizing oil prices are mitigating the impact on consumer prices [1]

Group 1 - The silver market is currently in a consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating and reaching a high of $66 on Wednesday, while remaining above $64 on Friday, indicating a long-term upward trend [1] - The U.S. labor market shows volatility, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.5% [1] - Retail sales in the U.S. remained flat in October, with declines in auto sales and gasoline revenues offsetting growth in other categories [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, marking the lowest level since July and below market expectations of 3.1% [2] - The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, also falling short of the expected 3.0% [2] Group 3 - On Thursday, silver prices opened at $66.177, experienced a drop to $65.514, and then surged to a high of $66.65 before closing at $65.473, indicating a strong bullish trend [3] - The key short-term support level for silver is $64.32, which is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum; a drop below this level could trigger profit-taking [3] - The current strong expectations for interest rate cuts suggest limited downside potential for silver prices, despite the possibility of a pullback [3]

Core Insights - The November core CPI unexpectedly slowed to its lowest level since 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, compared to the Dow Jones economists' forecast of 3.1% [4][5][9] - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that "technical factors" likely distorted the November inflation data, potentially lowering the CPI reading by about 0.1 percentage points due to data collection issues in October and early November [3][7][8] - Williams noted that the data collection was primarily focused on the promotional activities in the latter half of November, which may have contributed to a downward bias in the reported figures [4][8] Data Collection Issues - The report lacked standard data indicators due to the cancellation of the October CPI report, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics used "non-survey data sources" to compile the index [5][9] - Economists may interpret the report cautiously, as the absence of October data makes it difficult to conclude that inflation is on a sustained downward trend [5][9] - The methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for estimating missing data, particularly for owner’s equivalent rent, may have resulted in a lower calculation for that metric [5][9] Positive Signals - Despite the data collection issues, Williams observed encouraging signs from unaffected categories, indicating that price pressures in some areas are easing [4][8] - He expressed optimism that the observed inflation slowdown process is ongoing, as reflected in the report [4][8]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year in November, down from 3% in September [1][2] - Food prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year, while energy prices saw a 4.2% increase [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% year-on-year in November [2] Data Context - The October CPI data was not published due to the federal government shutdown, which resumed operations on November 13 [2] - Analysts caution that the new inflation and employment data may contain inaccuracies due to the impact of the government shutdown, suggesting a need for careful interpretation [2]

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the report indicates a slowdown in the average price increase in Nepal from mid-July to mid-November, with inflation rates decreasing significantly [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The inflation rate for the first quarter of the current fiscal year is reported at 1.67%, a notable decrease compared to the previous year's rate of 5.60% [1] - The consumer price index has also dropped to 1.11% year-on-year, reflecting a significant reduction in price growth [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The central bank attributes the slowdown in inflation primarily to the stabilization of prices for food and beverages [1]

Economic Data Release - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for November is set to be released on Tuesday at 9:30 PM Beijing time, amidst a flurry of economic data including retail sales and inflation reports [2] - The November non-farm payroll is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 4.4% [2][7] Impact of Government Shutdown - The report will include data from October, as the Labor Statistics Bureau could not collect unemployment data for that month due to the government shutdown [4] - Economists predict that the October employment numbers may show a decline due to the Deferred Resignation Program affecting government workers, with estimates suggesting a loss of 70,000 jobs in October and a further decrease of 10,000 jobs in November [4][5] Employment Trends - Despite the potential negative impact from the government shutdown, most economists expect a positive job growth in November, with predictions ranging from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000 jobs [4] - The healthcare and private education sectors are anticipated to drive job growth in November [4] Unemployment Rate Insights - Although the October unemployment rate will not be published, the November rate is expected to be around 4.4%, with some forecasts suggesting it could rise to 4.5% or even 4.6% due to federal employment declines [7][8] Additional Economic Indicators - The internal details of the establishment and household surveys will provide critical insights into the performance of various sectors in the U.S. economy [8] - Economists are particularly focused on employment growth in the goods-related sectors, while healthcare and possibly the restaurant industry are expected to continue leading job growth [8] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - The U.S. Department of Commerce will also release October retail sales data, with a modest growth forecast of 0.1% [9] - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report for November will be affected by the government shutdown, leading to a focus on year-over-year indicators for inflation signals [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods, which is framed as a necessary action to correct trade imbalances, but has led to significant negative impacts on American middle-class families [1] - Domestic companies, such as General Motors, are facing operational disruptions due to supply chain issues caused by tariffs, with production lines halted due to a lack of imported components [2] - The consumer price index in the U.S. has risen above 6% for three consecutive months following the tariff implementation, marking the highest increase since 1982, affecting everyday goods like ketchup and baby formula [2] Group 2 - Former President Bill Clinton criticized the tariff strategy, stating that the U.S. has lost $80 billion while China's trade surplus has exceeded $1 trillion, contrasting it with past cooperative trade agreements [4] - The Democratic Party is leveraging the economic fallout from the tariffs to gather testimonies from unemployed workers, highlighting the failure of the promised manufacturing revival [4] - The U.S. administration has reduced some tariffs from 30% to 20% in response to public backlash, but domestic semiconductor manufacturing remains underutilized, and Vietnam has seen a surge in electronic orders [6] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund reported a 1.2% decline in global trade growth due to the tariff war, with the U.S. suffering significant economic losses while China has managed to maintain growth through market expansion in Southeast Asia [8] - Major automotive companies like BMW and Toyota are shifting production to Mexico and Thailand, respectively, indicating a trend of supply chain restructuring away from the U.S. [8] - The ongoing trade conflict has highlighted the futility of unilateral actions in a globalized economy, with calls for cooperation rather than confrontation being emphasized by leaders like Clinton [10]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD currency pair is experiencing fluctuations near a three-month low, influenced by the recent weak performance of the USD and ongoing assessments of the US interest rate outlook for 2026 [1] Group 1: USD Performance - The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, is trading cautiously near an eight-week low of 98.13, with limited overall volatility [3] - Market expectations indicate a 64.3% probability of at least two interest rate cuts by US authorities by the end of 2026, although the dot plot suggests a decline in the federal funds rate to 3.4% by that time [4] - Current market sentiment towards a more accommodative US interest rate policy is linked to a weak labor market, with investors awaiting the November non-farm payroll data for insights into the employment situation [4] Group 2: CAD Performance - The Canadian dollar has shown strong performance against major trading partners in recent days, attributed to market expectations regarding the Bank of Canada's policy [4] - The Bank of Canada is not expected to implement further interest rate cuts in the short term, as indicated in its recent monetary policy statement, which suggests current rates are appropriate for maintaining inflation near the 2% target [4] - Key economic data, specifically the November Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI), is set to be released, with market predictions indicating a core CPI year-on-year increase of 2.4%, up from 2.2% in October, which will significantly impact CAD exchange rate movements [5]