1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of caustic soda is strong, the price of liquid chlorine is weak, and the futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot. It is expected that the futures price of caustic soda will strengthen on a month - on - month basis [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Chlor - alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. It is expected to reach about 86.1% this week, with a weekly output of about 834,900 tons [7]. - **Demand**: In the alumina industry, prices have been rising, and enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle. The short - fiber viscose industry's start - up rate remains stable, but the overall supply has declined. The printing and dyeing industry's comprehensive start - up rate is flat, and the export volume of liquid caustic soda in April was 335,800 tons, and that of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above decreased by 3.59% month - on - month and 2.25% year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.74% month - on - month [7]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, the price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali decreased to 428 yuan/ton [7]. - **Valuation**: The SH7 - 9 spread is maintained in the range of - 51 - 56, and the futures SH09 price is relatively strong. The futures price of caustic soda ignores the strong spot reality and focuses on the expected weakening of future demand. It is not recommended to carry out sell - hedging operations under the current basis [7]. 3.2 Chlor - alkali Prices - **Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price data of Shandong chlor - alkali, including the minimum ex - factory converted - to - 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda, the price of liquid chlorine, etc. [11] - **Futures Prices**: It shows the historical data of the main contract price of caustic soda, the spread between SH09 and SH01 contracts, and the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong [17]. - **Other Prices**: It also includes the prices of flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, raw salt, and coal [14][20][21] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production and Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of caustic soda production, liquid caustic soda inventory, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises [26]. - **Maintenance Situation**: It lists the maintenance and planned maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali enterprises in different regions [28]. 3.4 Chlor - alkali Demand - **Alumina**: It shows the historical data of Shandong alumina price, profit, and China's alumina production [32]. - **Viscose Short - fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: It presents the historical data of viscose short - fiber weekly output, factory inventory, price, and the start - up rate of East China's printing and dyeing industry [35]. - **Paper Pulp and Paper - making**: It shows the historical data of paper product output and the number of days of available inventory of upstream factory paper products [38]. - **Export**: It shows the historical data of China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and caustic soda [41]. - **Epoxy Propane**: It presents the historical data of Shandong epoxy propane price, profit, output, and start - up rate [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by macro and industry maintenance, the caustic soda futures price fluctuated strongly this week. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,535 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.38% from last week's close. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose to around 2,594 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.3% to 82.6% due to the shutdown and maintenance of some devices. On the demand side, the scale of alumina production reduction expanded, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.35% to 80.65%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 2.55% to 63.23%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 7.08% to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The Shandong caustic soda price rose slightly, and the Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [8]. - Looking ahead, the operating rate is expected to remain stable at a low level next week. The alumina production reduction scale continues to expand, and the non - aluminum demand is weak. In the short term, the supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase space. The SH2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Price: The caustic soda futures price fluctuated strongly. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,535 yuan/ton, up 2.38% from last week. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose to around 2,594 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to maintenance, demand was mixed (alumina production reduction expanded, viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased, printing and dyeing operating rate increased), and inventory increased by 7.08% to 415,900 tons. The Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [8]. - Outlook: The operating rate will remain stable at a low level. The alumina production reduction scale continues to expand, non - aluminum demand is weak, and high inventory restricts price increases. The SH2509 is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main caustic soda contract fluctuated and rose this week, and the 09 - contract position increased [9]. - **Spot Market**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan, with a converted price of around 2,594 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 896 yuan with a converted price of 2,800 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 880 yuan with a converted price of 2,750 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 100.5 yuan/ton. The futures increase was higher than the spot, and the basis converged [14][25][30][35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: The prices of raw salt in the northwest and Shandong remained stable, and the price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal dropped to around 614 yuan [41][47]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda output in March was 3.5893 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.47%. The operating rate this week decreased to 82.6% [50]. - **Demand**: In March, the alumina output was 7.9128 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 75.76%. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber this week was 80.65%. The alumina price rebounded slightly, and the viscose staple fiber price declined [56][61][64]. - **Import and Export**: In March, the caustic soda import was 60 tons, and the cumulative import from January to March was 180 tons. In March, the caustic soda export was 290,500 tons, and the cumulative export from January to March was 958,000 tons [70][76]. - **Inventory**: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 415,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.08% [82]. - **Cost**: The ECU costs in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained stable this week [86]. - **Profit**: The Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [92]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 22.29%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 23.74% [95].