1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot supply and demand of caustic soda in Shandong were weak, the market price of liquid caustic soda declined, the sentiment in the market improved, the price of the futures main contract rose, and the basis converged. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week's close; the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, affected by the increase in maintenance devices this week, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, and the national average utilization rate decreased by 2.0% to 80.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; this week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. In terms of inventory, this week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which was at a moderately high level compared to the same period. This week, the chlor-alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton, which was at a neutral level compared to the same period. In July, the purchase prices of alumina plants in Shandong and other places were lowered, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the planned maintenance capacity in July will decrease. Affected by the restart of shut - down devices and the launch of new production capacity, there is an expectation of an increase in caustic soda supply, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the room for improvement in the operating rate. The alumina price is weak, the profit is meager, and the growth of the operating rate is lackluster. The previous high delivery volume of caustic soda plants to alumina enterprises has led to implicit inventory pressure, which restricts future demand. The demand in the non - aluminum off - season is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand. As the future supply increases, the spot price will still face some pressure against the backdrop of limited demand. In the futures market, the replenishment expectation before the non - aluminum peak season provides some support for the price of the 09 contract, but the rebound space is limited in the absence of positive fundamentals. Technically, the SH2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 2,300 and the resistance around 2,500 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis converged. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased with the national average capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.5%. Demand from alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries weakened. Inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, and the chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton [8]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the operating rate. Demand is weak, and the spot price will face pressure. The futures price has some support but limited rebound space [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The main caustic soda contract fluctuated and rose this week, and the position volume of the 09 contract decreased [9]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Shandong: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 780 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,438 yuan/ton. The price of 99% flake caustic soda was 3,150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was - 300 yuan/ton [15][37]. - Henan: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 864 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,700 yuan/ton [27]. - Inner Mongolia: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 880 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [32]. - Basis: The spot price decreased while the futures price increased, leading to a convergence of the basis [22]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Raw salt: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [44]. - Steam coal: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 621 yuan/ton [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: In June, the caustic soda output was 3.4167 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%. This week, the operating rate dropped to 80.5% [52]. - Demand: The alumina output in May was 7.6323 million tons, and the operating rate last week was 80.67%. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 75.17%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber remained stable [57][61][64]. - Import and export: In May, the caustic soda import was 0.05 tons, and the cumulative import from January to May was 0.33 tons. In May, the caustic soda export was 33.09 tons, and the cumulative export from January to May was 1.349 million tons [70][76]. - Inventory: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 38.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% [81]. - Profit: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased and was at a neutral level compared to the same period [84]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was 15.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.27% [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of weakening supply - demand has started to materialize, with the spot price of caustic soda falling. The main futures contract SH2509 is oscillating at a low level near the lower - cost range. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the range estimated to be around 2220 - 2350 [7]. - In the medium - to - long term, there are many caustic soda production facilities scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high supply pressure. The delivered volume of the main contract remains high, while the off - peak demand from non - aluminum sectors is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Although the cost of self - supplied power plants has some support, the caustic soda spot price still has room to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2256 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week's close. The converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2531 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: - **Supply**: The overall caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2%, with some plants in central, northern, and northeastern China reducing their loads, and some in northwestern and eastern China restarting or increasing production [7]. - **Demand**: Alumina is still in the resumption phase. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, while the dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.64% to 60.73% [7]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 36.56 tons, at a moderately high level compared to the same period [7]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 501 yuan/ton, still showing considerable profitability [7]. - **Outlook**: Next week, a 750,000 - ton plant of Dongying Huatai will undergo maintenance, and some plants are planned to restart, which may lead to a decline in capacity utilization. There is high supply pressure in the medium - to - long term. The futures contract is at a discount, with cost support below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main caustic soda contract oscillated at a low level this week, and the position of the 09 contract remained basically stable [8]. - **Spot Market**: - **Prices**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 810 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2531 yuan; in Henan, the market price is 928 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2900 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, the market price is 912 yuan, with a converted 100% price of 2850 yuan. The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 25 yuan/ton [14][24][29][34]. - **Basis**: The spot price decline has narrowed the basis [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - **Raw Salt**: The prices of raw salt in the northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - **Steam Coal**: The price of 5500K steam coal in Qinhuangdao remained stable at 609 yuan/ton [46]. - **Supply**: In May, the caustic soda production was 3.4642 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%. This week, the operating rate rose to 81.2% [49]. - **Demand**: - **Alumina**: In May, the alumina production was 7.6323 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 80.87% [55]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.8%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber declined [59][62]. - **Import and Export**: - **Import**: In April, the caustic soda import was 900 tons; from January to April, the cumulative import was 2800 tons [68]. - **Export**: In April, the caustic soda export was 391,000 tons; from January to April, the cumulative export was 1.349 million tons [74]. - **Inventory**: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 365,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.63% [79]. - **Profit**: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased but remained quite profitable [82]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 20.97%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.15% [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The high profit of liquid caustic soda offsets the positive impact of concentrated maintenance within the month, and the commissioning of plants from June to July brings an expectation of intensified medium - and long - term supply pressure. The profit growth of downstream alumina slows down, the supply of raw material bauxite is tight, and some enterprises are cautious about increasing production. Non - aluminum demand has weak rigid demand and resists high prices. Currently, the inventory pressure is relatively high. The cost of thermal coal for self - supplied power plants lacks support in the short term. The weak expectation of caustic soda spot is being realized, and the spot price in Shandong has declined recently. The futures price is at a discount, with cost support below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound. SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range expected to be around 2230 - 2340 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2273 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the futures holding volume is 287,509 lots, up 459 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 23,570 lots, up 1591 lots; the futures trading volume is 444,883 lots, down 27,019 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2328 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 850 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2656.25 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan. The basis of caustic soda is 321 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, down 200.5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 75 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. As of June 12th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.07% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11% [1]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The supply side: Multiple sets of devices in North China were shut down or reduced in load last week, and the industry capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.5% to 80.9%. The demand side: The alumina start - up rate increased by 0.52% to 80.87% last week; the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 80.56%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 0.14% to 61.36%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 5.52% to 382,100 tons last week. The profit of chlor - alkali was around 613 yuan/ton last week, with considerable profitability [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC faces high supply and inventory pressure with weak domestic demand, lacking positive fundamental support and under pressure [3][4] - Caustic soda's overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, with insufficient upward price drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4758 yuan/ton (-35); East China basis -98 yuan/ton (-5); South China basis -8 yuan/ton (+35) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (-40); South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4750 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: PVC calcium carbide method gross profit -621 yuan/ton (+37); PVC ethylene method gross profit -516 yuan/ton (+10); PVC export profit 13.8 dollars/ton (+6.1) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory 38.7 tons (-1.9); PVC social inventory 37.8 tons (-2.0); PVC calcium carbide method operating rate 73.19% (-2.33%); PVC ethylene method operating rate 72.90% (+2.84%); PVC operating rate 73.11% (-0.90%) [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 60.3 tons (-2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closed at 2456 yuan/ton (+7); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 294 yuan/ton (-7) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1420 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong caustic soda single - product profit 1759 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 935.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 313.78 yuan/ton (-50.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 1425.55 yuan/ton (+20.20) [2] - Inventory and开工: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 40.09 tons (-1.50); Flake caustic soda factory inventory 2.95 tons (+0.03); Caustic soda operating rate 84.10% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream开工: Alumina operating rate 78.10% (+1.43%); Printing and dyeing East China operating rate 63.23% (+0.00%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate 80.30% (-0.35%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: New maintenance scale is small, previous maintenance devices continue to stop, PVC operating rate declines slightly month - on - month, but there are few planned maintenance in the later period, and PVC production is at a high level in the same period. With the expected new capacity put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate is at a low level in the same period, PVC pipes, profiles and films' operating rate is weakly stable, downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, and the spot price center of PVC is weakly volatile. Demand is weak [3] - Cost side: The upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weakly stable, and the cost - side support for PVC is insufficient [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Some new maintenance enterprises are added, and previous maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. The overall operating rate of caustic soda rises slightly month - on - month, but manufacturers' loads mostly run at a high level supported by profits. With the expected new capacity of caustic soda put into production from June to July, supply pressure is still high [3] - Demand side: The spot price of alumina, the main downstream product, continues to rise, and the production profit of the alumina industry is significantly repaired. The reduction of production may weaken, and the expectation of some capacity resumption is strong, which may support the caustic soda market price in the short term. Non - aluminum downstream terminal purchases are cautious, mainly replenishing on - demand, and the operating rate of non - aluminum terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing is still at a low level in the same period, and non - aluminum demand remains weak [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. High inventory and supply pressure continue, domestic demand is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly at the bottom in the short term [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The overall supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be weak, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment continuity and alumina capacity resumption progress [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of caustic soda is strong, the price of liquid chlorine is weak, and the futures price is significantly at a discount to the spot. It is expected that the futures price of caustic soda will strengthen on a month - on - month basis [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Chlor - alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. It is expected to reach about 86.1% this week, with a weekly output of about 834,900 tons [7]. - **Demand**: In the alumina industry, prices have been rising, and enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle. The short - fiber viscose industry's start - up rate remains stable, but the overall supply has declined. The printing and dyeing industry's comprehensive start - up rate is flat, and the export volume of liquid caustic soda in April was 335,800 tons, and that of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above decreased by 3.59% month - on - month and 2.25% year - on - year. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.74% month - on - month [7]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, the price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the profit of chlor - alkali decreased to 428 yuan/ton [7]. - **Valuation**: The SH7 - 9 spread is maintained in the range of - 51 - 56, and the futures SH09 price is relatively strong. The futures price of caustic soda ignores the strong spot reality and focuses on the expected weakening of future demand. It is not recommended to carry out sell - hedging operations under the current basis [7]. 3.2 Chlor - alkali Prices - **Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price data of Shandong chlor - alkali, including the minimum ex - factory converted - to - 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda, the price of liquid chlorine, etc. [11] - **Futures Prices**: It shows the historical data of the main contract price of caustic soda, the spread between SH09 and SH01 contracts, and the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong [17]. - **Other Prices**: It also includes the prices of flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, raw salt, and coal [14][20][21] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Production and Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of caustic soda production, liquid caustic soda inventory, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises [26]. - **Maintenance Situation**: It lists the maintenance and planned maintenance situations of multiple chlor - alkali enterprises in different regions [28]. 3.4 Chlor - alkali Demand - **Alumina**: It shows the historical data of Shandong alumina price, profit, and China's alumina production [32]. - **Viscose Short - fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: It presents the historical data of viscose short - fiber weekly output, factory inventory, price, and the start - up rate of East China's printing and dyeing industry [35]. - **Paper Pulp and Paper - making**: It shows the historical data of paper product output and the number of days of available inventory of upstream factory paper products [38]. - **Export**: It shows the historical data of China's monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and caustic soda [41]. - **Epoxy Propane**: It presents the historical data of Shandong epoxy propane price, profit, output, and start - up rate [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by macro and industry maintenance, the caustic soda futures price fluctuated strongly this week. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,535 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.38% from last week's close. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose to around 2,594 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.3% to 82.6% due to the shutdown and maintenance of some devices. On the demand side, the scale of alumina production reduction expanded, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.35% to 80.65%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 2.55% to 63.23%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 7.08% to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The Shandong caustic soda price rose slightly, and the Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [8]. - Looking ahead, the operating rate is expected to remain stable at a low level next week. The alumina production reduction scale continues to expand, and the non - aluminum demand is weak. In the short term, the supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase space. The SH2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Price: The caustic soda futures price fluctuated strongly. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,535 yuan/ton, up 2.38% from last week. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose to around 2,594 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to maintenance, demand was mixed (alumina production reduction expanded, viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased, printing and dyeing operating rate increased), and inventory increased by 7.08% to 415,900 tons. The Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [8]. - Outlook: The operating rate will remain stable at a low level. The alumina production reduction scale continues to expand, non - aluminum demand is weak, and high inventory restricts price increases. The SH2509 is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main caustic soda contract fluctuated and rose this week, and the 09 - contract position increased [9]. - **Spot Market**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan, with a converted price of around 2,594 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 896 yuan with a converted price of 2,800 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 880 yuan with a converted price of 2,750 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 100.5 yuan/ton. The futures increase was higher than the spot, and the basis converged [14][25][30][35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: The prices of raw salt in the northwest and Shandong remained stable, and the price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal dropped to around 614 yuan [41][47]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda output in March was 3.5893 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.47%. The operating rate this week decreased to 82.6% [50]. - **Demand**: In March, the alumina output was 7.9128 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 75.76%. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber this week was 80.65%. The alumina price rebounded slightly, and the viscose staple fiber price declined [56][61][64]. - **Import and Export**: In March, the caustic soda import was 60 tons, and the cumulative import from January to March was 180 tons. In March, the caustic soda export was 290,500 tons, and the cumulative export from January to March was 958,000 tons [70][76]. - **Inventory**: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 415,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.08% [82]. - **Cost**: The ECU costs in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained stable this week [86]. - **Profit**: The Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [92]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 22.29%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 23.74% [95].