Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy** and **U.S. Treasury market** analysis, with a focus on macroeconomic indicators and fiscal policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Shifts**: The global macro trading narrative in 2025 has shifted multiple times, influenced by factors such as Trump's policies and trade disputes, with a need to monitor the potential reversal risks associated with "Taco trading" [1][5][6]. 2. **Impact of Trump's Policies**: The passage of the "Big Beautiful Plan" has enhanced Trump's negotiation flexibility, particularly as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, which could influence market dynamics [1][8]. 3. **Consumer Spending as Economic Indicator**: Personal consumption accounts for over 60% of U.S. GDP, making it a critical focus for assessing economic trends through retail sales and consumer confidence indices [1][12][16]. 4. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The U.S. real estate market is currently facing high interest rates and reduced housing demand, with new and existing home sales being key indicators to monitor [1][24][25]. 5. **Federal Reserve's Role**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is primarily driven by inflation and employment factors, with potential interest rate cuts expected in response to labor market weaknesses [3][9][44]. 6. **Treasury Market Dynamics**: The U.S. Treasury market serves as a global asset pricing anchor, with significant portions held by international investors, impacting global interest rates and capital flows [10][11][38]. 7. **Trade Policy Implications**: Trump's trade policies are a significant variable in macro trading for 2025, with the U.S. experiencing trade deficits while maintaining a surplus in services [26]. 8. **Labor Market Resilience**: The labor market shows signs of resilience, with non-farm employment data and unemployment rates being crucial metrics for understanding economic health [27][28]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Confidence and Retail Data**: Retail sales and consumer confidence indices are vital for gauging economic performance, with soft data sometimes conflicting with hard data [20][21]. 2. **Inflation Indicators**: Recent increases in core consumer prices suggest that tariff policies may be influencing inflation, which could affect future Federal Reserve decisions [33][34]. 3. **Market Reactions to Economic Data**: The relationship between stock and bond markets indicates that rising yields can negatively impact equity valuations, highlighting the interconnectedness of asset classes [14]. 4. **Federal Budget Concerns**: The U.S. fiscal budget process is complex, with recent spending levels raising concerns about fiscal sustainability, particularly with the "Big Beautiful Plan" increasing the deficit ceiling [36]. 5. **Investment Strategies in Treasury Market**: Current strategies suggest a focus on short-term Treasury securities due to anticipated interest rate cuts, while long-term securities face greater uncertainty due to inflation risks [47].

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has made progress in trade negotiations with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, with agreements expected before the August 1 deadline[1] - A key event is the third round of U.S.-China trade talks scheduled for July 28 in Stockholm, which may yield new outcomes regarding export controls[1] - The U.S. Federal Circuit Court will rule on July 31 regarding the legality of Trump's tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), impacting global trade dynamics[1] Group 2: Tariff Analysis - Trump's tariffs can be categorized into three types: a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products from China, a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on various imports based on trade deficits[2] - The International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that Trump's global and retaliatory tariffs were invalid, asserting that tariff authority lies with Congress, not the President[2] - The upcoming court ruling on July 31 could result in four scenarios, including upholding the International Trade Court's decision, which would invalidate Trump's tariffs[3] Group 3: Implications for China - If the court rules against Trump's tariffs, China may gain leverage in future negotiations with the U.S.[4] - Conversely, if the court supports Trump's tariffs, negotiations may become more challenging, requiring further concessions from China[4] - The potential for Trump to utilize other administrative measures to impose tariffs remains if the court ruling is unfavorable[4] Group 4: Upcoming Events and Risks - Key upcoming events include the U.S.-China trade talks from July 27 to 30 and the court debate on July 31, which will influence tariff policies[4] - Risks include the possibility of U.S. trade negotiations introducing terms detrimental to China's interests and the potential for increased geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea region[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs, particularly the nine industry-specific tariffs based on national security concerns, which are more stringent than reciprocal tariffs based on trade deficits [1][3]. Group 1: Steel and Aluminum - Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum in 2018, which were later reinstated and increased to 50% in 2025 [4][6][7]. - The tariffs primarily target Canada, which accounts for over 20% of U.S. steel imports and nearly half of aluminum imports, followed by the EU and Japan [9]. - The tariffs have significant political implications, especially in key swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which are crucial for elections [13][14][15]. Group 2: Copper - A 50% tariff on copper was announced, affecting various copper products, with the U.S. relying on imports for about half of its copper needs [16][17]. - Chile is a major copper supplier, contributing to a quarter of global supply, while China and other Asian countries hold significant copper reserves [18][19]. Group 3: Automotive and Parts - A 25% tariff on imported cars and parts was implemented, impacting a market where the U.S. imports over $300 billion worth of vehicles annually [22][23]. - The primary countries affected include Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Canada, and the UK, with Mexico being the most impacted [24][25]. - The tariffs are expected to influence U.S. automakers significantly, as they rely heavily on imported parts, with nearly 60% of parts being imported [25][32]. Group 4: Commercial Aircraft and Jet Engines - The U.S. imports more commercial aircraft and jet engines than it exports, with a trade deficit of $33 billion in 2024 [40]. - Nearly 50% of these imports come from the EU, with significant contributions from Canada and the UK [41]. Group 5: Wood Products - The U.S. is investigating tariffs on imported wood products, citing national security concerns due to military construction needs [43][45]. Group 6: Pharmaceuticals - The U.S. imports about 80% of its generic drugs and half of its brand-name drugs, with significant imports from Ireland and China [46][48]. - The U.S. has raised concerns about trade imbalances with Ireland, where many pharmaceutical companies have established operations [48]. Group 7: Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is under scrutiny for potential tariffs, as the U.S. imports $200 billion more in semiconductors than it exports [51]. - Major suppliers include mainland China, Taiwan, and Mexico, with a significant reliance on foreign production [52]. Group 8: Critical Minerals - The U.S. is heavily reliant on imports for critical minerals, with 12 out of 50 minerals fully imported and 28 more than half imported [53][54]. - South Africa and Canada are the largest suppliers, while China dominates the rare earth imports [55]. Group 9: Manufacturing Employment - The article notes a decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs from 17 million to 13 million over the past 30 years, with tariffs aimed at bringing jobs back to the U.S. [58]. - The transition of supply chains is complex and varies by industry, with manufacturing sectors like automotive facing longer timelines for relocation [59][60].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes that "quantity" is more important than "price" this year, focusing on the impact of inflation risks on the U.S. economy and its implications for exports and employment [2][11]. Group 1: Impact of Inflation on U.S. Economy - Inflation may erode the real income and consumption capacity of U.S. consumers, particularly among low- and middle-income groups, negatively affecting their purchasing power and increasing wealth disparity [3][12]. - A significant rise in inflation could suppress risk appetite, leading to a decline in U.S. stock markets, which would adversely affect the wealth effect for high-income groups and consequently impact service consumption [3][18]. - Rising inflation, combined with tax cuts, may raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, potentially keeping long-term U.S. Treasury yields high and constraining fiscal expansion [4][26][27]. - If inflation rises significantly, it could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy in countering potential economic and employment downturns [4][32]. Group 2: Observing Short-term Inflation Risks - Various dimensions indicate short-term inflationary pressures, particularly in price expectations and surveys, while actual prices and economic indicators suggest a more stable inflation trajectory [5][35]. - Consumer inflation expectations tend to synchronize with U.S. CPI year-on-year changes but may lead actual inflation trends by 1-2 quarters during significant inflationary periods [5][36]. - Price surveys from businesses generally lead U.S. CPI changes by 2-5 months, indicating potential inflation trends [5][37]. - Financial market indicators, such as implied inflation rates from U.S. Treasury bonds, also lead CPI changes by about 2 months [5][46]. Group 3: Constructing a Leading Index for U.S. Inflation - A comprehensive leading index for U.S. inflation has been constructed using various dimensions, showing a correlation with U.S. CPI changes, leading by approximately 2 months [8][61]. - The leading index indicates that inflationary pressures are primarily driven by cost factors, with other dimensions showing limited upward pressure [8][68]. - The recent rise in the comprehensive leading index suggests a potential increase in U.S. CPI, with predictions indicating a possible rise to around 3.2% in July [8][69].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 美国通胀的领先指标 ——出口深度思考系列之二 在年中展望报告中，我们认为今年"量"比"价"更重要。其简要逻辑在于， 在"以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确定性"的基调下，出口风 险的主线是：美国进口→全球贸易/中国的出口→就业影响/政策对冲，而特朗 普关税政策可能引致的通胀上行风险对美国经济的冲击，是影响美国进口需 求的重要因素。因此从国内基本面出发考虑，将本篇报告列为出口深度思考系 列之二，通过构建一个领先指数，来定量地观察美国通胀的短期上行风险。 通胀上行如何冲击美国经济？ 1、居民部门：通胀上行，可能侵蚀美国消费者尤其是中低收入群体的实际收 入和消费能力。表面上来看，2021 年以来美国中低收入群体的实际薪资收入 增速要高于中高收入群体。但实际上，中高收入群体的总税后收入增速依然好 于中低收入群体，并且收入水平越低，税后收入增速越跑不过物价涨幅。基于 上述事实，如果通胀上行，实际薪资增速下行，对中低收入群体的实际购买力 以及整体贫富差距都存在负面影响，中低收入群体也是特朗普选民的基本盘。 2、居民部门：若出现明显的通胀上行，压制风险偏好带来美股下跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant internal debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The Federal Reserve is divided on whether the new costs from tariffs justify maintaining high interest rates, with some officials concerned about inflation expectations [1][5]. - Recent changes, including a reduction in some extreme tariff increases and an extended negotiation period with multiple countries, have altered the Fed's outlook on rate cuts [4][5]. - There has been no significant increase in consumer prices related to tariffs yet, although many expect to see price rises in upcoming June and July data [5][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The internal division within the Fed presents a critical test regarding the inflationary nature of tariffs and how to manage costs if predictions are incorrect [6]. - Fed Chair Powell's recent comments suggest a tactical flexibility, indicating that potential rate cuts are a continuation of a process paused due to tariff risks [7][8]. - Powell's stance reflects a middle ground, acknowledging the possibility of less severe inflation than previously thought, which may open the door for rate cuts based on labor market conditions or improved inflation data [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The market appears to be indifferent to Trump's latest tariff threats, reflecting a belief that these threats may not be implemented or will have minimal impact on the economy and corporate profits [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Trump's announcement to delay tariff negotiations until August 1 and impose 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean products, as well as up to 40% on products from 12 other countries, resulted in a modest decline of 0.2% in the S&P 500 index [1]. - The South Korean stock market saw a significant increase, with the Seoul Composite Index rising by 1.5% at one point, indicating a positive market sentiment despite the tariff threats [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market's calm response indicates a belief that the tariffs will not have a substantial effect on economic growth or corporate profits [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors seem to be ignoring the latest tariff announcements, interpreting them as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive stance on tariff levels [4]. - The market has adapted to the unpredictable nature of tariff policies, with significant structural misalignments observed, as evidenced by the stability of U.S. inflation swap prices despite ongoing tariff threats [4]. - The prevailing sentiment is that the tariff threats are not taken seriously, leading to potential risks if Trump adopts a more aggressive stance unexpectedly [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The annual central bank meeting in Portugal highlighted the cautious stance of major central bank leaders in response to the economic impact of Trump's policies, with a notable signal from Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Powell indicated that without Trump's tariffs, the Fed might have already lowered interest rates, emphasizing that inflation trends are a key consideration in rate decisions [1]. - The Fed's recent "dot plot" suggested two potential rate cuts by the end of 2025, with Powell previously stating the Fed was in a good position to remain observant [2]. - Powell's recent comments suggest a shift from the previously held view of considering rate cuts only in the fall [1]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Perspectives - ECB President Lagarde noted that while the Eurozone's inflation reached the 2% target in June, challenges remain, and geopolitical risks pose dual threats [4]. - The Bank of England's Bailey stated that monetary policy remains restrictive, with signs of a mild slowdown in the UK economy potentially influencing future decisions [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Ueda maintained a wait-and-see approach, indicating no immediate plans to raise borrowing costs [6][7]. - The Bank of Korea's Lee expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on economic growth rather than inflation, suggesting a careful approach to rate cuts [8]. Group 3: Dollar and Trade Policy - Central bank leaders agreed that the dollar's status as the preferred global reserve currency is unlikely to change in the short term, amidst ongoing trade negotiations by the Trump administration [9]. - Trump announced intentions to implement new tariffs by July 9, emphasizing a strict stance on trade relations with various countries [10].

当被问及市场是否太早期待7月降息时，鲍威尔回应："我现在无法做出判断，一切取决于数据表 现。"根据芝商所FedWatch工具，交易员预计美联储在7月会议上继续按兵不动的概率超过76%。 鲍威尔强调，美联储将"逐会而定"，"我不会把任何一次会议排除，也不会承诺某次会议一定会行动， 一切都取决于数据如何演变。" 美联储坚持维持当前利率水平，遭到特朗普和其团队的猛烈抨击。特朗普上周公开批评鲍威尔"糟糕透 顶"，甚至称他为"智力平平的人"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔周二在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行论坛上表示，如果不是总统 特朗普今年早些时候推出的加征进口商品关税计划，美联储本应已经放松货币政策。 当被问及若特朗普没有宣布征收更高关税，美联储是否会在今年再次降息时，鲍威尔坦言："我认为是 的。实际上，当我们看到关税规模时，我们就暂停了行动，几乎所有针对美国的通胀预期都因此明显上 升。" 这一坦率言论正值美联储在强烈的白宫压力下维持观望姿态，尽管美国经济放缓迹象渐显。上月，美联 储再次维持联邦基金利率在4.25%至4.5%区间不变，自去年12月以来一直未有变动。 根据最新的"点阵图"显示，美联储联邦公开市场委 ...