Report Overview - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Report Source: Wukuang Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as North American weather, trade wars, and bio - diesel policies, and is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is multi - faceted, with suggestions to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure and tariff progress [3][5]. - The palm oil market is influenced by factors like export data and production, and the overall oil market is affected by the EPA policy and production increases. It is expected to fluctuate, with potential for a rise in the fourth quarter [6][9]. - The sugar market may see a downward trend in the future, considering the import profit window and the expected increase in imports [11][12]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by factors such as the non - finalized Sino - US trade agreement, basis changes, and potential import quota issuance [14][15]. - The egg market has limited capacity clearance, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - The pig market has a seasonal supply reduction, and the futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Soybean/Miscellaneous Meals Market Situation - On Wednesday, US soybeans rebounded and closed higher. North American weather and potential trade - war impacts on exports continued to put pressure on US soybeans, but low valuation, good old - crop sales, and bio - diesel policies supported demand. Domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated, with concerns about future purchases and current supply pressure. Spot prices dropped slightly, and oil - mill sales were weak but pick - up was good. The estimated domestic soybean crushing volume is 238.03 million tons this week [3]. - US soybean growing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks. Brazilian soybean premiums have been rising slightly, and the unresolved Sino - US soybean tariffs support local premiums, offsetting the decline in US soybeans. Overall, soybean import costs are stable for now [3]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to buy at low levels within the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at high levels, while waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Oils Market Situation - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil prices fluctuated, affected by weakening export data. Rapeseed oil was relatively weak, pressured by Sino - Australian diplomatic contacts and a decline in foreign rapeseed prices. The EPA policy has lifted the annual oil price center, but there are still bearish factors due to increased palm oil production in Southeast Asia. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The US bio - diesel policy draft supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, with a potential rise in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, due to high valuation and factors like annual production increases, high palm oil production, and the undetermined RVO rules, the market is expected to fluctuate [9]. Important Information - Malaysian palm oil export data shows an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June and a decline of 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days. In July 2025, from the 1st - 10th, palm oil production increased by 35.28%, and in the first 15 days, it increased by 17.06% [6]. - In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216,141 tons. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [6]. - China and Australia are close to reaching a purchase agreement for 150,000 - 200,000 tons of rapeseed [6]. Sugar Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The September contract closed at 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions showed slight adjustments, with a narrowing of the basis between Guangxi spot and the main contract [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in a good import - profit window, and the expected increase in imports in the second half of the year may lead to a downward trend in sugar prices, especially considering the relatively high valuation of the September contract [12]. Important Information - ICRA estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 34 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from the current season, due to favorable monsoon rainfall for sugarcane growth [11]. Cotton Market Situation - On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose with increased positions. The September contract closed at 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day. The spot price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton decreased slightly, and the basis widened. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a 0.13% year - on - year decrease and a 4.22% month - on - month increase [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement is not finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The current basis is not conducive to downstream consumption, and the potential issuance of import quotas in July - August is a bearish factor. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile [15]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's cumulative textile and clothing exports were 143.978 billion US dollars, a 0.76% year - on - year increase [14]. Eggs Market Situation - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 2.76 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream purchasing intention increased, with faster sales. Today's prices may be stable in some areas and rise slightly in others [17]. Trading Strategy - Capacity clearance in the egg market is limited, and the spot price is in the bottom - building stage. Due to high futures premiums and large positions, it is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details. Pigs Market Situation - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. The average price in Henan dropped 0.06 yuan to 14.55 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped 0.1 yuan to 13.71 yuan/kg. Farmers' enthusiasm for selling was high, but market digestion was weak, and prices may continue to decline today [20]. Trading Strategy - Since late June, spot pig prices have rebounded, with reduced slaughter volume and lower weights, indicating a seasonal supply reduction. The futures market has limited downside space in the short term, but there are concerns about supply postponement and hedging pressure in the medium term [21]. Important Information - No additional important information provided other than the above - mentioned market situation details.

Core Insights - The futures market for live pigs shows a closing price of 13,790 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, reflecting an increase of 110 yuan/ton from the previous week [1] - The current prices for live pigs in various regions have increased, with Henan at 14.86 yuan/kg (+0.53 yuan), Jiangsu at 15.24 yuan/kg (+0.58 yuan), and Sichuan at 13.86 yuan/kg (+0.21 yuan) [1] - The supply side indicates a slight increase in the number of breeding sows and a decrease in the number of sows being eliminated, while the total stock of market pigs has increased by 0.45% [1] Supply Analysis - As of May, the number of breeding sows stands at 5.0834 million, up 0.33% month-on-month [1] - The number of eliminated sows is 96,829, down 0.91% from the previous month [1] - The total stock of market pigs is 35.6403 million, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.45% [1] Demand Analysis - The slaughtering rate of enterprises is at 27.74%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The inventory rate of frozen products in key domestic slaughtering enterprises is 17.41%, an increase of 0.06% [1] - Consumer demand appears to be recovering, with an increase in slaughter volume and frozen inventory, although overall consumption remains weak [1] Market Outlook - The analysis suggests that if the breeding sector reduces the number of pigs being sold in July, live pig prices may rise [1] - The September futures contract is showing strong performance, indicating market confidence [1] - In the medium to long term, the production capacity and profitability of pig farming remain favorable, with a trend of increasing breeding sows expected to continue [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations [4]. - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4]. - The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4]. - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4]. - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - On June 16, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on the regression of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 500 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,850 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,750 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,780 yuan/ton [2]. - The national average live pig slaughter price on June 16 was 14.21 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan or 0.64% from June 13. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased to varying degrees [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of the 01, 07 contracts increased slightly, while the prices of the 03, 05, 09, 11 contracts decreased slightly [6]. - The main basis in Henan increased by 200 yuan to 520 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.5% [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices in the second and third quarters [3]. - The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - The view is weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs is abundant in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, the demand support for pig prices is weak in the second and third quarters, if there is concentrated and large - scale weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows, and the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase will be limited. The demand in the first half of the year is off - peak, while the second half is peak season. The fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. For the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: Against the backdrop of spot price decline due to weight reduction, the main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted in a moderately strong manner. On June 13, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 320 yuan/ton [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **Inter - monthly Spread Changes**: Against the backdrop of weak spot prices, the spreads of some contracts showed reverse arbitrage trends [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: A decrease in slaughter volume and a drop in pig prices indicate pressure on the supply side, leading to the decline in pig prices [14]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is gradually returning to normal [16]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The price difference between 150kg pigs and standard pigs adjusted weakly in a fluctuating manner. If it strengthens, it may weaken the willingness of the breeding end to reduce weight [18]. - **Fresh Sales and Hair - White Price Difference**: The terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen price difference for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight is decreasing rapidly, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually being released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: As of the end of April, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, with a flat month - on - month change and a 1.3% year - on - year increase. According to different data sources, the inventory of reproductive sows in May continued to increase [28]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in May but remained at a low level [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In May, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month, indicating a continuous increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in October this year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15kg piglets continued to decline, and the price of 50kg binary sows was stable with a slight weakening trend [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 20% year - on - year increase. The frozen product market has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from bullish to neutral - bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the import volume of pork was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak and difficult to bear the supply pressure, the retail end has a sentiment of hoarding, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the spot price turns stronger again [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price is expected to have a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (6.9 - 6.15) - **Spot Market**: The live pig price fluctuated and adjusted. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 39.1 yuan/kg (last week: 41.6 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan this week was 14.08 yuan/kg (last week: 14 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,621 yuan/head (last week: 1,631 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The supply side has limited incremental amplitude from groups, and retail farmers still have a sentiment of hoarding. The post - holiday market demand shows a seasonal decline, and the rising temperature further suppresses the demand increment, while the demand for secondary fattening replenishment is strong [1]. - **Futures Market**: The live pig futures price showed a strong - side fluctuation. The highest price of the LH2509 contract this week was 13,840 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,790 yuan/ton (last week: 13,460 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 290 yuan/ton (last week: 540 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.16 - 6.22) - **Spot Market**: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. The group's slaughter adjustment has a great impact on the price during the off - season. Although the downstream demand is weak, the retail end has a hoarding sentiment, the secondary fattening group actively replenishes stocks, and the policy of continuous state reserve purchases is expected, so the price turns stronger again. The supply has accelerated inventory accumulation, and the group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. The incremental slaughter in the second quarter is limited, and the incremental slaughter in the third quarter will be more obvious. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream support may be limited. The policy of secondary fattening sales has tightened, and the active incremental inventory accumulation drive is limited, but the state reserve purchase policy provides support [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has a long - term de - stocking process. Pay attention to the mid - line spread structure switching to the reverse spread market and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis was 290 yuan/ton; the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread was - 495 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: This week's average weight was 125.76KG (last week: 126KG). In April, the pork output was 5.268 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%; the pork import volume was 805,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].

研究所 均重继续下降 盘面企稳反弹 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年06月15日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货先弱后稳，整体重心较上周有所下移，期货低位反弹，主力LH09合约表现明显强于其余合约，使得LH7-9月 有差走弱，而LH9-11月差走强。基本面来看，集团场降重增量叠加社会场出栏积极，整体供应偏宽松，而目前消费处于淡季 ，加之二育入场有限，需求支撑亦不足。从中期来看，根据仔猪出生数据及饲料产销数据来看，后期整体出栏量大方向上仍呈 现逐步增多的趋势，尤其是10、11月环比增速或比较明显，供应总体偏充足。但政策指导企业降均重、限二育对供应节奏影 响亦较大，短期来看大企业降重出栏、二育受限使得当前有一定供应压力。而当下二育的减少，又会减轻未来供应的压力，从 而提升远月估值。综合来看，期货后期整体以底部宽幅震荡对待。操作上，短线偏多。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 2.生猪现货行情 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply in the pig market is sufficient, with an increase in the number of pigs for sale from the breeding side. The demand has entered the off - season due to rising temperatures, and the slaughtering enterprises' operation rate has room to decline seasonally. Overall, the pig market has no obvious boost and is expected to maintain a weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: LH2507 closed at 13090, down 115 or - 0.9%; LH2509 (the main contract) closed at 13460, down 145 or - 1.1%; LH2511 closed at 13335, down 75 or - 0.6% [2][4]. - Spot: The national average commodity pig slaughter price was 14.31 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan or - 0.6%; the price in Henan was 14.4 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan or - 0.8% [2][4]. 3.2 Monthly Spread, Basis, and Warehouse Receipts - Spread: The 2509 - 2507 spread was 370, down 30; the 2511 - 2509 spread was - 125, up 70 [11]. - Basis: The basis for July was 830, down 485; the basis for September was 460, down 455 [11]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of pig warehouse receipts was 475, an increase of 475 [11]. 3.3 Inventory and Inventory Structure - Piglet market: The average price of weaned piglets was 486.19 yuan/head, down 19.38 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market continued to be weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment declined. The average price of 50KG binary sows was 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks, with low market replenishment enthusiasm [19]. - Commodity pig inventory: It is expected that the inventory of commodity pigs in June may decrease, and the inventory of large pigs over 140 kg has decreased [19]. 3.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread - National average: The weekly average standard - fat price spread was - 0.05 yuan/kg, 0.04 yuan/kg wider than last week. The prices of both standard and fat pigs decreased, with an increase in the supply of standard pigs and restricted movement of fat pigs between regions [23]. - Future trend: As the temperature rises, the demand for fat pigs will be further limited, and the standard - fat price spread may narrow [23]. 3.5 Slaughtering End - Slaughtering operation rate: It was 28.9%, down 0.45 percentage points from last week. The market demand declined, and the operation rate of slaughtering enterprises is expected to continue to decline [26]. - Fresh - meat sales rate: The fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 88.36%, down 0.89 percentage points from last week, with slower fresh - meat sales [26]. - Frozen - meat storage rate: The frozen - meat storage rate of domestic key slaughtering enterprises was 17.32%, a slight increase of 0.04%. The trading volume of frozen meat was slow, and there was still involuntary storage in some areas [26]. 3.6 White - Striped Pork and Wholesale Market There is no clear summary information about white - striped pork and the wholesale market in the report, only some price and arrival - volume data are presented. 3.7 Profit and Cost - Self - breeding and self - raising: The weekly average profit was 94.98 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. - Purchasing piglets for breeding: The weekly average profit was 39.50 yuan/head, an increase of 3.21 yuan/head from last week. The improvement in profit was mainly driven by the decline in feed costs and the relatively stable pig prices [35]. 3.8 Market Information Summary - Supply: Some enterprises accelerated the slaughter of large - weight pigs, and the overall supply in June increased, with a loose market supply [38]. - Demand: As the temperature rises, it has entered the consumption off - season, and there is no holiday boost. The slaughtering volume still has room to decline [38]. - Inventory: The storage capacity of slaughtering enterprises is at a low level, and some unsold products are involuntarily stored [38]. - Policy: The "Administrative Measures for the License of Breeding Livestock and Poultry Production and Operation" will be implemented on July 1, 2025 [38]. - African swine fever: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [38]. - Market sentiment: The overall sentiment is pessimistic due to large supply and weak demand [38].

Report Overview - Report Title: "2025.06.06 - Weekly Report on the Pig Market: Price Fluctuation and Weakening Basis" [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin - Report Type: Weekly Market Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, leading to a decline in pig prices to around 14 yuan/kg, and the short - term price is expected to remain weak. However, the futures market may have digested the expectations, with a smaller decline than the spot market, resulting in a weakening basis and a fluctuating adjustment trend. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Strategy: Wait and see or conduct light - position rolling short - selling operations on rebounds [7] - Market Review: Pig prices were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [8] - Outlook: Supply is increasing in the short and medium term, while demand is in the seasonal off - season, making it difficult to support prices [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: Futures were weak, with the main contract down 1.07% weekly [12] - Net Position: The net short position of the top 20 futures holders decreased, with 475 futures warehouse receipts (an increase of 475 from last week) [17] 3.3 Spot Market - Basis: The basis of the July contract was 910 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 540 yuan/ton [22] - Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average pig price was 14.638 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from last week and 3.36% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.14 yuan/kg, down 2.52 yuan/kg from last week and 6.75% from last month [29] - Pork and Sow Prices: The national pork market price was 25.60 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [33] - Pig - Grain Ratio: The pig - grain ratio stopped falling and stabilized but was below the break - even point [37] 3.4 Upstream Supply - Sows: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40380000, slightly decreasing from the previous month. In May, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [42] - Pigs: In the first quarter, the pig inventory increased year - on - year, and in May, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data [45] - Slaughter: In May, the slaughter volume of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [48] 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of June 6, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was a loss of 120.8 yuan/head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 33.83 yuan/head. The profit of poultry breeding was a loss of 0.44 yuan/head, with a reduced loss compared to the previous week [51] - Import: From January to April 2025, the cumulative import of pork was 360000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88% but at a historically low level [57] - Substitutes: The price of white - striped chickens decreased, and the standard - fat price difference decreased month - on - month [60] - Feed: The price of soybean meal decreased, the price of corn increased, the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed index rose, the spot pig feed price remained unchanged, and the feed production decreased year - on - year [66][69][74] - CPI: As of April 2025, the year - on - year CPI decrease was 0.1%, with a narrowing decline [77] 3.6 Downstream Demand - Slaughter: The slaughter enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the frozen product storage capacity increased slightly. In April, the slaughter volume increased, and the catering consumption recovered year - on - year [80][85] 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks - Mentioned stocks include Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no in - depth analysis was provided [86]

生猪日报 | 2025-06-04 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月3日，生猪注册仓单0手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1736手，持仓约7.74万手，最高价13645元/ 吨，最低价13485元/吨，收盘于13510元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） ...

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/5/19 | | | 5/9 | 5/16 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪期货 | LH2507 | 13495 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | | | LH2509 | 13925 | 13660 | -265 | -1.9% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13625 | 13420 | -205 | -1.5% | | | 现货价格 | 全国 | 14.74 | 14.56 | -0.18 | -1.2% | | | | 河南 | 15.07 | 14.9 | -0.17 | -1.1% | 交割基准区域 | 数据来源&制图：文华财经、钢联、华金期货 | | | | 生猪周度汇总 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13405 | -90 | -0.7% | | ...