Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, but the pig price may rebound at the end of the year. In this case, an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 9,219 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 94,100 lots. The highest price was 13,160 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,995 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish factors include slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in September and October. The bullish factors include weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather turns cool, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be in a volatile adjustment phase. The core logic is that, based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered (for reference only, not an investment recommendation) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 17, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.95 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.99% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.14%. In Sichuan, it was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.78%. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 1.24%; the 03 contract remained unchanged at 13,005 yuan/ton; the 05 contract was 13,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42%; the 09 contract was 12,985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.88%; the 11 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The main basis in Henan was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 33.33% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking No detailed summary information provided other than the display of data charts, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between 01 - 03 contracts [14].

Group 1 - In August 2025, Shennong Group sold 166,400 pigs, with a revenue of 285 million yuan, showing a decline compared to July [1] - The total sales of Shennong Group from January to August 2025 reached 1.8806 million pigs, generating a revenue of 3.116 billion yuan [1] - In August 2025, the average selling price of commercial pigs for Shennong Group was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 5.84% from July [2] Group 2 - Tianbang Food reported a sale of 529,700 commercial pigs in August 2025, with a revenue of 621 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.32% in sales volume and 9.43% in revenue compared to the previous month [2] - From January to August 2025, Tianbang Food sold 4.0246 million commercial pigs, with a revenue of 5.45 billion yuan, and an average selling price of 16.05 yuan/kg [2] - The overall trend in the domestic pig market has been downward in recent months [2] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods sold 7.001 million commercial pigs in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, with an average selling price of 13.51 yuan/kg [3] - Wen's Food sold 3.2457 million pigs in August 2025, generating a revenue of 4.825 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 13.9 yuan/kg [3] - Recent analysis indicates a potential recovery in pig market demand in September, although supply pressures remain significant [3]

Core Insights - The overall trend in the domestic pig market is a decline in prices, with major companies reporting lower sales prices and revenues in August 2025 [1][3][4] Company Summaries Shennong Group - In August 2025, Shennong Group sold 166,400 pigs, generating sales revenue of 285 million yuan, both showing a decline compared to July [1] - From January to August 2025, the company sold 1.8806 million pigs, with total sales revenue of 3.116 billion yuan [1] - The average selling price of commercial pigs in August was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 5.84% from July [1] Tianbang Foods - In August 2025, Tianbang Foods sold 529,700 pigs, with a sales revenue of 621 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month change of -1.32% and -9.43% respectively [1] - The average selling price for commercial pigs was 15.02 yuan/kg, a decrease of 7.22% from the previous month [1] - From January to August 2025, the company sold 4.0246 million pigs, with total sales revenue of 5.45 billion yuan, and an average selling price of 16.05 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decline [2] Muyuan Foods - In August 2025, Muyuan Foods sold 7.001 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, but the average selling price dropped to 13.51 yuan/kg, down 31.46% year-on-year [3] - The total sales revenue for the month was 11.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [3] Wens Foodstuff Group - In August 2025, Wens sold 324,570 pigs, generating revenue of 482.5 million yuan, with the average selling price at 13.9 yuan/kg [3] - Year-on-year changes included a 37.88% increase in sales volume but a 32.03% decrease in average price [3] Industry Trends - The pig market has been experiencing a downward price trend, with significant declines in both prices and revenues reported by major players [3][4] - There are indications of a potential recovery in demand as September approaches, but supply pressures remain high [3][4] - The willingness of breeding companies to cull sows has increased due to falling prices and profits, leading to a decrease in the number of breeding sows [4] - Despite the expected increase in piglet births, the supply growth is anticipated to outpace seasonal demand increases in the coming months [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for significant increases or decreases. - The market has already priced in the reality of an oversupply of pigs. The futures market, especially the near - term contracts, has been falling and is at a discount to the spot market. Over - shorting is not cost - effective. The strategy should focus on potential low - level rebounds due to factors like consumption and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts continues [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since August, domestic pig prices have mainly fluctuated downward with a small range. The planned monthly slaughter volume was high, slaughter volume was significantly large, the average weight of group - farmed pigs for sale continued to decline, the number of pigs sold by散户 increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained high. In September, the theoretical and planned slaughter volume remains high, but factors such as post - cooling pig retention, increased demand in cool weather, state purchases, and festivals may limit price drops. Pig prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize, with a slight decline overall [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, a slight monthly decrease of 10,000, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve next year's supply. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [11]. - **Demand Side**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and short - sell contracts 11 and 01 after a rebound. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 for a 2 - month period, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Since August, domestic pig prices have fluctuated downward. In September, prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize with a slight decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The futures market has priced in the pessimistic outlook in advance, and the basis and monthly spreads have fluctuated within a narrow range [25]. 3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, slightly down from the previous month, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, but more evidence is needed to determine if capacity reduction is effective [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [42][49]. - **Import and Pig Feed**: No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [50]. 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume and Related Indicators**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. Despite the weak pig prices compared to the same period in previous years, large - scale losses have not occurred because of the low cost [69]. 6. Inventory Side - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product inventory is slowly increasing [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply rhythm is expected to gradually recover, and there is pressure on supply due to the peak of the previous increase cycle in the inventory of breeding sows in September and the increase in the number of newborn piglets in the past six months. The planned monthly slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery in demand due to centralized procurement by schools at the beginning of the semester, procurement for the Ghost Festival, and the decrease in temperature in the north, leading to a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. - At the beginning of the month, the slowdown in slaughter and the slight recovery in demand led to an increase in spot prices. However, due to market expectations of supply in September, futures prices were weak, and the basis strengthened. - As the slaughter rhythm recovers and supply increases, and after the centralized procurement by schools before the Ghost Festival and at the beginning of the semester ends, demand growth is limited. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, pig prices may face pressure and mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct short - term bearish trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2511 dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure exists as the slaughter rhythm will recover and the supply of breeding sows and newborn piglets suggests an increase. Demand has a slight recovery but is limited after the special procurement periods end. Pig prices may be under pressure and operate in a weak and volatile manner. Short - term bearish trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 of pig futures dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 5th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1222 lots to 14,854 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [12][16]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 255 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September contract was 820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 575 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Price**: The average national pig market price was 13.90 yuan/kg this week, up 0.16 yuan/kg from last week and 0.72% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, down 0.55 yuan/kg from last week and 9.88% from the same period last month [34]. - **Other Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.81 yuan/kg in the week of August 28th, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The pig - grain ratio was 5.89 as of August 20th, down 0.05 from the previous week [38][43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.025%, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [48]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, an increase of 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. In July, the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 473,700, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 54.30%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs this week was 123.41 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [59]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 5th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 126.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 52.65 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 22.17 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20.42 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.23 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 0.02 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - crossbred chickens was 1.00 yuan/head [64]. - **Import Situation**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [65][69]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of September 5th, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 4th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3073.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2362.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 29th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 919.08, an increase of 1.24% from last week. This week, the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [75][83][87]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, the year - on - year increase in China's CPI was 0.0% [91]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 36th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [99]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data or analysis is provided [100].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, but pig prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. [1] - The fat - standard price difference is expected to strengthen, which may increase the willingness of farmers to fatten pigs. [1] Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Due to the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On August 29, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 185 yuan/ton, compared with -70 yuan/ton on August 22. [2][3] - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted. [4] - **月间价差变化**: The monthly spreads fluctuated and adjusted. [7][10] 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices fluctuated weakly. [13] - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable. [15] - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will increase the market's willingness to fatten pigs. [17] - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year. [19] - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products. [21] - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red. [23] - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether the negative cycle of "weak price → increased slaughter enthusiasm → weak price" will form. [25] 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year growth of 0.0%. Different data sources showed that the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase. [27] - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market was average. [29] - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In July, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month. According to a 6 - month fattening period, the number of pigs to be slaughtered in January next year is expected to increase overall. [31] - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak. [33] 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and slightly negative. [35] 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices. [38]

Core Viewpoint - In August, the national pig prices experienced a downward trend due to a combination of increased supply from farms and the traditional off-season for consumption. The market is expected to continue facing oversupply in September, with potential downward pressure on prices, necessitating close monitoring of policy implementation [1]. Group 1: August Pig Price Trends - In August, the national average pig price was 13.80 yuan/kg as of August 27, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.15% and a year-on-year decline of 32.16% [2]. - The highest price recorded was 14.27 yuan/kg on August 1, while the lowest was 13.59 yuan/kg on August 27, with a maximum price difference of 0.68 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side saw a high outflow from farms in early August, with larger pigs entering the market, leading to an abundance of supply. However, demand was weak due to high temperatures and the traditional off-season for pork consumption [4]. - As August progressed, smaller pigs (110-120 kg) began to dominate the market, which, due to their shorter turnover and lower costs, further pressured overall market prices downward [4]. - Despite a slight improvement in demand towards the end of August due to school and enterprise stocking, the overall purchasing volume was lower than in previous years, limiting the demand's impact on prices [4]. Group 3: September Price Outlook - In September, the pig supply is expected to increase due to delayed outflows from farms, with some farms possibly accelerating their outflow to avoid excessive supply pressure in the fourth quarter [5]. - The demand in early September is anticipated to remain weak, with only a slight improvement expected due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall support for prices is limited [5]. - Policy changes regarding cross-province pig transportation starting September 1, 2025, may have mixed effects on different regions, necessitating ongoing observation of policy impacts on the market [5].

Report Information - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The spot market for pigs has a loose supply - demand balance, with increased supply from farmers and weak demand in the off - season, so spot prices may continue to face pressure [9]. - The near - month 2509 futures contract follows the spot market and fluctuates weakly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season. Although currently dragged down by the spot market and undergoing a weak correction, long - term positive factors limit the downside space [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 20th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened flat, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest was 13,900 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,685 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,775 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,299 lots to 183,725 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 20th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.74 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is low, and the terminal demand is weak due to hot weather. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, but the slaughter volume and the opening rate have increased slightly. On August 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 140,800 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day and 1,800 heads from a week ago [9]. - **Supply Side**: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase from July. The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter is high, and there is still pressure on slaughter, while the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [9]. 2. Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of August 15th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 52 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 yuan/head [14]. - **Piglet Price**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15th was 484 yuan/head, a decrease of 33 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In the week of August 15th, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.6335 million heads, a week - on - week increase of 30,100 heads and a growth rate of 1.88%. The average daily slaughter volume was 138,446 heads, an increase of 1,321 heads from the previous week and a daily growth rate of 0.96% [14]. - **Planned Slaughter Volume**: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August was 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% month - on - month increase from July [14]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of August 15th, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 127.82 kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 kg and a year - on - year increase of 1.65 kg [14].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pigs: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations, Trend Reverse Spread Confirmation" [1] - Date: August 10, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week (8.04 - 8.10), the spot market for pigs showed weak performance. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 36.05 yuan/kg, the price of pigs in Henan dropped from 14.43 yuan/kg last week to 13.88 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide decreased from 1628 yuan/head last week to 1614 yuan/head. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was at a low level. The average national slaughter weight this week was 124.04KG, a 0.19% decrease from last week. In the futures market, pig futures prices fluctuated weakly. The LH2509 contract had a high of 13980 yuan/ton, a low of 13770 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13930 yuan/ton, down from 14055 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2509 contract was -50 yuan/ton, down from 375 yuan/ton last week [2]. - Next week (8.11 - 8.17), the spot price of pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand growth is limited. The spot price may reach a new low this year. In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price closed at 13930 yuan/ton on August 8. The spot price at the end and beginning of the month was lower than expected, and the basis may gradually turn to a contango delivery structure. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract, and stop - profit and stop - loss should be noted. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data, Basis and Spread - This week's basis was -50 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 375 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Supply - This week's average slaughter weight was 124.04KG (last week: 124.28KG). Monthly pork production was 529.5 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a 5.6% month - on - month decrease [13]. 3. Demand - Not elaborated in detail in the content other than the general description of low demand in the market review and outlook.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment. The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 380 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The live pig contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 626 lots today, with a position of about 59,600 lots. The highest price today was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,920 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a shock. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory to support pig prices, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited while the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector), so pig prices are difficult to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. Market Overview - On August 7, 2025, compared with August 6, 2025, the 01 - contract price of live pigs increased by 85 yuan to 14,395 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.59%; the 03 - contract price increased by 40 yuan to 13,375 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.3%; the 05 - contract price remained unchanged at 13,895 yuan/ton; the 07 - contract price decreased by 10 yuan to 14,405 yuan/ton, with a decrease rate of 0.07%; the 09 - contract price increased by 60 yuan to 13,870 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.43%; the 11 - contract price increased by 90 yuan to 14,100 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.64% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts over different time periods [14].