2025/12/16 09:10 电⼒供应不⾜正在阻碍全球经济增⻓ | ZeroHedge 电⼒供应不⾜阻碍了全球经济增⻓ 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉16⽇，星期⼆，上午9:05 作者： Akshat Rathi ，彭博市场直播记者兼策略师 芯⽚设备制造商ASML控股公司举⾜轻重，其命运的起伏甚⾄会影响荷兰经济和全球⼈⼯智能的发 展。如今，该公司⼀项最重要的增⻓计划——在荷兰埃因霍温地区建设⼀座将雇⽤多达2万名员⼯ 的新园区——能否实现，取决于能否获得电⼒供应。 尽管事关重⼤，但ASML能否获得所需的电⼒仍⽆法保证。这是因为该公司只是荷兰12000家等待 接⼊电⽹的企业之⼀。荷兰电⽹运营商协会Netbeheer Nederland估计，即使电⽹运营商每年投资 80亿欧元（93亿美元），拥堵问题仍可能持续⻓达⼗年。 ⾄关重要的是，分析发现，电⽹压⼒增加会导致资本⽀出下降，资本⽀出是指政府和企业为购置或 维护⻓期资产⽽进⾏的⽀出。 彭博经济研究⾸席贸易和⽓候经济学家梅⽡·库⾟表⽰："从⻓远来看，投资减少意味着经济增⻓放 缓。" 电⽓化对经济增⻓的积极影响在不同地域——从印度和中国到⾮洲⼤多数国家——以及不同时期 ...

资料显示，路特斯科技公司是一家领先的豪华纯电动汽车(BEV)制造商,设计、开发和销售豪华生活方式 车(日常使用的非跑车),旗下拥有标志性的英国品牌"Lotus"。凭借70多年的赛车传统和在汽车行业的领 先地位,Lotus品牌象征着性能、设计和工程方面的市场领先标准。融合基于世界一流研发能力的专有下 一代技术和吉利控股授权的轻资产模式,该公司正在电气化,数字化和智能化方面开辟新的领域。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：行情君 据交易所数据显示，12月15日，路特斯科技(LOT)盘中上涨2.94%，截至22:35，报1.4美元/股，成交 5014.0美元，总市值9.50亿美元。 财务数据显示，截至2025年09月30日，路特斯科技收入总额3.56亿美元，同比减少45.5%；归母净利 润-3.78亿美元，同比增长43.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that copper is an undervalued investment opportunity, poised for significant growth due to its essential role in the electrification and AI revolution, contrasting it with gold, which is driven more by emotional and speculative factors [1][4][40]. Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the increasing energy needs of AI data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sources, with projections indicating global copper consumption will rise from 33 million tons in 2024 to 41 million tons by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% [23][24]. - AI models require substantial energy, with a single training session consuming about 12,000 MWh, equivalent to the daily electricity consumption of a medium-sized city, leading to a projected increase in global data center electricity consumption from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh by 2030 [7][9]. - Electric vehicles consume four times more copper than traditional vehicles, with an estimated additional demand of 200,000 to 300,000 tons of copper by 2030 due to the anticipated 55.7% penetration rate of electric vehicles [17][19]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The average grade of copper ore has declined from 0.95% in the early 2000s to 0.60% in 2024, meaning more ore must be mined to extract the same amount of copper, effectively doubling the workload and costs [25][28]. - The development of new copper mines is increasingly challenging, with an average exploration to production timeline of 20-30 years, and many potential projects remain in the planning stages [27][28]. - The global copper concentrate supply is expected to face a shortfall, with a projected deficit of 1.2 million tons by 2040, which is 30% of total demand, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [37][38]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investing in copper is seen as a more stable and necessary choice compared to gold, as copper's price is driven by fundamental demand rather than speculative trends, making it suitable for long-term investment [40][42]. - The current copper price of approximately $11,000 per ton is still below historical highs, suggesting significant upside potential as supply constraints become more pronounced [43][44]. - Various investment avenues are available for copper, including mining stocks, ETFs, and futures, allowing investors of different risk tolerances to participate in the copper market [46][47]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on upstream copper mining companies with integrated operations, as they are likely to benefit directly from rising copper prices [49][50]. - Attention should also be given to downstream sectors that utilize copper, such as data centers and electric vehicle manufacturers, which are expected to experience high growth due to increased copper demand [52]. - For risk-averse investors, copper ETFs provide a diversified investment option, while more experienced investors may consider futures and options to enhance capital efficiency [53][54].

Summary of Schneider Electric's 2025 Capital Markets Day Company Overview - **Company**: Schneider Electric (OTCPK:SBGS.F) - **Event**: 2025 Capital Markets Day - **Date**: December 11, 2025 - **Location**: McLaren Technology Center Core Industry Insights - **Focus on Electrification and Digitalization**: Schneider Electric emphasizes that the next century will revolve around electrification and digitalization, aiming to make energy more efficient and sustainable [5][28] - **Market Trends**: Three mega trends identified: 1. Acceleration of the new energy landscape 2. Growth in digital technologies 3. Transition to a multipolar world [27] Financial Performance - **Consistent Growth**: Schneider Electric has shown strong and consistent financial results, even during the COVID period, with a focus on delivering strong cash returns and a progressive dividend policy [8] - **Digital Portfolio**: 60% of Schneider's portfolio is already digital, with plans to enhance this further [9] Strategic Initiatives - **EcoStruxure Technology Stack**: The company has developed a unique technology stack called EcoStruxure, which integrates energy management and industrial automation [5][15] - **Acquisitions**: Strategic acquisitions, including AVEVA and Motivair, have been made to enhance software capabilities and technology solutions [9] - **Multi-Hub Strategy**: Schneider Electric is focusing on a multi-hub strategy to enhance regional presence and agility, with significant investments in local R&D and supply chains [59][60] Differentiating Factors - **Balanced Exposure**: Schneider Electric maintains a balanced geographical and market exposure to enhance resilience [11][12] - **Diverse Portfolio**: The company has a differentiated portfolio with strong positions in low and medium voltage products, automation solutions, and digital services [13][14] - **Employee Engagement**: 63% of eligible employees invested in Schneider through the shareholding plan, indicating strong employee engagement [22][23] Sustainability Commitment - **Environmental Impact**: Schneider Electric has helped avoid over 790 million tons of CO2 emissions and is committed to integrating sustainability into its business strategy [25][26] - **Recognition**: The company has been recognized as one of the most sustainable companies globally by Corporate Knights and TIME [26] Future Outlook - **Investment in R&D**: Plans to increase R&D investment to 7% of revenue, focusing on automation and digital solutions [55] - **Revenue Goals**: By 2030, over 70% of revenue is expected to come from the digital flywheel, with 25% from software and services [56] - **Lifecycle Solutions**: Schneider Electric aims to provide solutions across the entire lifecycle of products, from design to maintenance, enhancing customer value [54] Key Partnerships - **Collaboration with NVIDIA**: Schneider Electric is partnering with NVIDIA to develop AI factories and optimize data center infrastructure, showcasing a commitment to innovation in energy and industrial intelligence [52][53] Conclusion - Schneider Electric is positioned to lead in the energy technology sector by leveraging its strong portfolio, commitment to sustainability, and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing customer value and operational excellence. The focus on electrification, digitalization, and AI integration will drive future growth and innovation.

"这是一个既供应过剩、也风险过剩的市场。" 标普全球副董事长、著名能源专家丹尼尔.耶金(Daniel Yergin) 12月11日，在2025国际能源发展峰会期间，标普全球副董事长、著名能源专家丹尼尔.耶金(Daniel Yergin)向媒体指出，全球能源 体系正从"供应过剩"迈向"风险过剩"，地缘政治因素正成为影响能源价格的核心变量。 在需求侧，他指出，中国石油需求正在进入关键的"平台期"，这一变化标志着全球石油市场的重大转折点。他说，在过去约20 年间，中国贡献了全球石油需求增量的一半，但目前中国石油需求已趋于平稳。 耶金称，国际能源署发布报告指出，为维持当前石油天然气产量，全球需在2050年前每年投入约5400亿美元用于勘探开发。当 前，一些公司正在从过度快速向可再生能源转型的战略中回撤，重新对油气勘探表现出兴趣，同时继续探索多元化技术路线。 此外，耶金还特别强调矿产资源的重要性快速上升，包括铜在内的关键矿产将在全球电气化进程中发挥核心作用。"铜在未来电 气化体系中将发挥关键作用。未来能源体系必须同时考虑传统能源、可再生能源以及关键矿产。" 当被问到中国在绿色能源领域的地位时，耶金表示，中国在太阳能、电 ...

随着投资者等待美国联邦储备委员会本年度最后一次政策会议，以探寻央行对 2026 年美国经济的看 法，铜及其他工业金属价格走高。 伦敦金属交易所铜价一度上涨 1.3%，至每吨 11641.50 美元，收复了前一交易日的大部分跌幅。投资者 预计美联储将在周三晚些时候宣布降息 25 个基点，市场关注的核心将是美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔如 何阐述央行对明年经济增长、通胀及利率的看法。 美国前总统唐纳德・特朗普物色接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的热门人选凯文・哈塞特周二表示，他认为 存在充足空间来大幅下调利率。 作为电气化和能源转型的关键金属，伦敦金属交易所铜价今年已累计上涨超 30%。本周早些时候，受 市场担忧大量铜流向美国以提前规避可能的进口关税、进而导致其他地区供应短缺的影响，铜价一度触 及每吨 11771 美元的历史新高。 伦敦金属交易所铜价一度上涨 1.3%，至每吨 11641.50 美元，收复了前一交易日的大部分跌幅。投资者 预计美联储将在周三晚些时候宣布降息 25 个基点，市场关注的核心将是美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔如 何阐述央行对明年经济增长、通胀及利率的看法。 美国前总统唐纳德・特朗普物色接替鲍威尔出任美联储主 ...

ING预计，2026年除非新矿提前放量，否则TC/RC仍将"贴地飞行"，中国冶炼厂即便兑现"联合减产 10%"的口头协议，被挤出的精矿也会流向海外炼厂，全球精炼铜实际产出未必会伤筋动骨。 价格层面，ING把2026年伦铜均价锚定在11500美元/吨，节奏上先扬后抑：二季度库存外溢效应最强， 现货紧张或把价格推至12000美元高点;下半年关税路径明朗，若豁免兑现，溢价回吐，铜价温和回落。 上行风险来自中国冶炼厂真刀真枪减产、矿山再出黑天鹅，以及电网、AI数据中心等长赛道需求突然 加速;下行风险则是中国需求退坡、美国关税政策反转导致库存回流，再加上宏观逆风共振。 长期来看，ING认为电气化、可再生能源与算力基建将给铜需求提供"结构性安全带"，故事远未结束， 但2026年这趟车，注定在"供给惊险"与"需求犹豫"之间颠簸前行。 矿山端的"血崩"只是故事的上半集，贸易流的重塑才是下半集的主线。特朗普年初扬言对铜课税，贸易 商抢在关税落地前把精炼铜狂运美国，1—8月美国精炼铜进口同比猛增逾五成，COMEX库存因此飙涨 300%，突破40万吨创历史新高，把美国本土价格硬生生抬出每吨2500美元的溢价;而LME与SHFE库存 ...

过去二百年，每次工业化升级都重塑全球格局：英国靠蒸汽机开启第一次工业革命，美国靠电力与石油主导第二次工业革命，硅谷数字化引领第三次科技浪 潮。 今天，中国通过全面电气化战略，正在开启第四次能源文明跃迁。 普通人如何抓住这场红利，掌握未来十年的命运，你准备好了吗？ 中国的电气化国家战略并非口号，而是全面铺开、深入落地的国家行动。 从能源生产到技术应用，从产业链建设到智能管理，中国正在建立全球首个完整的电气化工业体系。 全球八成太阳能组件也在中国制造，过去十年太阳能组件价格下降超过80%，这一切都源自中国工业体系的规模优势和技术迭代能力。 中国不仅拥有产能，更拥有从原材料采集、加工、装备制造、系统工程、储能建设、智能电网管理到市场运营的完整链条，这使得中国不仅能够生产能源装 备，更能将能源系统智能化、数字化和自动化。 人工智能与电气化的结合，使得新能源不仅仅是能量来源，更是智能化调度和高效利用的工具。 中国在AI专利、人才储备和工业化应用方面占据全球领先地位，人工智能赋能下的智能电网能够实时调节能源供需，实现能源的高效分配和极低损耗。 这种系统性能力让中国在全球能源体系中，拥有前所未有的主动权。 相比之下，美国虽 ...

Core Insights - Silver and copper are currently viewed as the most valuable metals for investment, potentially surpassing gold due to supply concerns and increasing demand in electrification and clean energy sectors [1] - As 2026 approaches, the focus of investment is shifting from gold to these industrial metals, indicating a promising trading opportunity [1] - Silver prices have nearly doubled this year, with significant increases occurring in the last two months due to historic supply tightness in the London market and surging demand from India [1][5] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has seen a significant influx of nearly $1 billion in funds, surpassing the inflow of the largest gold fund, further supporting spot prices [5] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have risen over 11% since October 20, while gold prices have remained stable [5] - The volatility in silver prices has increased, with a notable rise in implied volatility for silver options, reaching the highest level since early 2021 [5][6] - Retail traders are actively participating in the silver futures market, with a surge in trading volume for micro futures contracts [6] - The current silver price is 82% above its five-year average, indicating significant price volatility [6] Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices have reached historical highs, exceeding $11,600 per ton, with increased volatility in futures contracts [8] - The imposition of tariffs on copper by the U.S. has led to significant changes in copper pricing and trade flows, resulting in record increases in U.S. imports [8][9] - Structural bullish fundamentals for copper suggest limited downside potential for prices, especially amid supply constraints from major mines [8] - The recent decision by the U.S. to reconsider tariffs on primary copper has led to increased transportation of copper materials by traders [8] Global Trade and Supply Concerns - Global trade balance has tightened significantly due to the transfer of raw materials to the U.S., influenced by actual or potential tariffs [9] - The price disparity between U.S. raw materials and global benchmarks has created incentives for materials to remain in the U.S. market [9] - Supply tightness in both precious metals and copper markets is partly attributed to arbitrage trading [9][10]

Core Insights - Nexperia's supply chain disruptions are impacting the global automotive industry, highlighting structural vulnerabilities that cannot be overlooked [1] - The semiconductor industry is heavily reliant on a few suppliers, and geopolitical tensions can quickly lead to production halts [1] - Yole Group emphasizes the strategic importance of disassembly analysis in understanding competitors' innovations and strategies in the semiconductor landscape [1] Group 1: Nexperia's Role in the Automotive Ecosystem - Nexperia plays a critical role in the automotive ecosystem, providing essential components such as diodes, transistors, and MOSFETs for vehicle control units and power electronics [1] - Since 2020, 75% of the 400 automotive systems analyzed by Yole Group contain at least one Nexperia component, particularly in ADAS, infotainment, telematics, and electrification controllers [2] - Nexperia's components account for 1% of the semiconductor electronic bill of materials (eBOM), but they are crucial for the manufacturing process [4] Group 2: Financial Impact and Customer Base - In 2024, Nexperia's revenue is projected to reach $2.06 billion, with over 50% derived from automotive applications [7] - The company's customer base includes major automotive manufacturers in Europe and the U.S., as well as some Asian manufacturers, indicating its widespread influence [7] - Nearly every automotive manufacturer utilizes Nexperia's products, often without their knowledge, underscoring the company's foundational role in the automotive semiconductor ecosystem [7] Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges and Lessons Learned - The automotive industry is currently relying on existing inventory to maintain production, but prolonged supply chain disruptions could lead to shutdowns within weeks due to low inventory levels [7] - The recent semiconductor crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic has made OEMs aware of their dependency on immediate semiconductor supply [8] - Although many of Nexperia's products are technically simple and can be substituted, the challenges lie in qualification, validation, and logistics, which require time [8] Group 4: Future Trends and Demand - The Nexperia situation coincides with a pivotal moment for automotive manufacturers, as the integration of electrification, digitalization, and artificial intelligence is driving unprecedented semiconductor demand [9]