Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading on September 3rd [2][4]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries participating. This move aims to regain market share, potentially leading to a cancellation of the second phase of production cuts, which currently stands at approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global oil demand [6]. - Previously, OPEC+ had agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day for the UAE. However, actual production increases have not met these commitments due to some countries needing to compensate for previous overproduction and others facing capacity constraints [7]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC's monthly oil market report from August 12 indicated an upward revision in the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day. The 2025 forecast remains unchanged, with an expected increase of 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [8]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oil surplus in 2026, Brent crude oil futures prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026. The firm expects a daily supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels, with one-third of this inventory stored in OECD member countries [8][9]. - The forecast suggests that while oil prices may remain stable near current forward contract levels in 2025, this balance is expected to break in 2026, with Brent's "fair value" projected to decrease from the current $70 range to the $50 range, particularly as inventories continue to accumulate [9].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries involved, aiming to regain market share [5]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output will account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [5]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day for the UAE [5]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day [6][7]. - For 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day, with the 2026 forecast being adjusted due to improved economic growth expectations in certain regions [7]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude oil prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [8]. - The firm expects a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global oil inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [8]. - The accumulation of oil stocks, particularly in OECD countries, is expected to coincide with a decrease in oil demand in these regions, further exerting downward pressure on prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude falling nearly 2% and WTI crude dropping over 2% during trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss increasing oil production among eight member countries in an upcoming meeting, aiming to regain market share [5]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output could account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [5]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional 300,000 barrels per day allocated to the UAE [5]. Group 2: Global Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day [6][7]. - For 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [7]. - The upward revision in demand forecasts is attributed to improved economic growth expectations in certain regions, including the OECD, Middle East, and Africa [7]. Group 3: Future Oil Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude futures could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [8]. - The firm expects a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global oil inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [8]. - The accumulation of oil stocks, particularly in OECD countries, coincides with a decline in oil demand in these regions, which is expected to further depress oil prices [8].

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil absolute prices are expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. Medium - term absolute prices are expected to weaken, with prices dropping to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the fourth - quarter European diesel crack price expectations are raised [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - From August 21 to August 27, 2025, WTI crude oil increased by $0.90, BRENT by $0.83, and DUBAI by $0.03. Other indicators such as BRENT 1 - 2 month spread, WTI - BRENT, etc., also showed corresponding changes [3]. - During the same period, SC decreased by 16.40, OMAN increased by 1.00, and SC - BRT decreased by 3.06. Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 30.00, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 75.00 [3]. - For other products like Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, etc., there were also significant price and spread changes during this period [3]. 3.2 Daily News - The White House trade advisor Navarro said that if India stops buying Russian oil, it can get a 25% tariff discount [3]. - The Mexican DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3]. - European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, and there is room for further diplomatic negotiations in the next few weeks [3]. - Affected by the Ukrainian attack and US tariff policies, Russian crude oil exports fell to a four - week low. In the week ending August 24, Russian port weekly crude oil shipments decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day [4]. - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 due to an expanding oil surplus next year [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5]. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 15 to 22, the main refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased slightly. Chinese refinery weekly production of gasoline and diesel both decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased. The comprehensive profit of main refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices oscillated narrowly, and the absolute price rebounded slightly on Friday. At the end of the summer peak oil demand season, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The South American supply has been realized, and the market is concerned about the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of US "punishment" measures on India's purchase of Russian oil [6]. - India said on August 21 that it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the embargo risk, but there is still uncertainty in trade frictions. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran on Thursday, which had a greater potential impact, and then the Dubai market month - spread strengthened [6]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, and the macro - sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, the global oil inventory has slightly decreased, the US commercial inventory has decreased, gasoline inventory has decreased, and diesel inventory has increased. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the gasoline and diesel cracks have strengthened [6]. - Currently, refineries are at the peak of operation. The latest estimate is that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil month - spread is expected to be under pressure [6].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that Brent crude oil futures prices are expected to fall below $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing supply-demand imbalances in the global oil market [1] - The report forecasts an average surplus supply of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period [1] - OECD member countries are projected to account for one-third of the global inventory increase, with an estimated rise of about 270 million barrels [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the dual pressure of inventory buildup and declining oil demand in OECD countries will push the fair value of Brent crude oil down from the current level of approximately $75 [1] - Although oil prices may fluctuate around forward contract prices for the remainder of 2025, significant inventory pressure is expected to exacerbate in 2026, leading to a drop below current market expectations [1] - If China's crude oil inventory growth accelerates from an average of 400,000 barrels per day in the first eight months of this year to 800,000 barrels per day, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 could rise by $6 to $62 compared to the baseline forecast [1] Group 3 - As of the report's release, international oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend, with Brent crude futures at $67 per barrel and WTI at $63 per barrel, both significantly lower than their peaks earlier in the year [2] - Market analysis suggests that slowing global economic growth is leading to weak demand, compounded by increased production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, heightening concerns over oversupply in the market [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to increasing oil surplus next year, Brent crude oil futures will drop to the low range of $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 [2] - The bank estimates that from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, the oil surplus will expand to an average of 1.8 million barrels per day, leading to a global inventory increase of nearly 800 million barrels [2] - By 2026, oil stored in OECD member countries is expected to account for one-third of global total inventory, amounting to 270 million barrels [2] Group 2 - Brent crude oil prices may remain close to forward contract levels for the remainder of 2025, but are expected to fall below these levels next year due to accelerated inventory growth in OECD countries [2] - If China's inventory growth accelerates from the current 400,000 barrels per day to 800,000 barrels per day, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 could rise by $6 to $62 [2] Group 3 - The ongoing Ukraine conflict introduces uncertainty into the oil market, leading to potential volatility, although the market has not fully priced in significant supply risk premiums [3] - The U.S. has imposed an additional 25% tariff on exports to India, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, which has caused traders to hesitate regarding market direction [3][5] Group 4 - Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum have resumed purchasing Russian oil supplies for September and October, indicating a willingness to continue buying based on economic benefits [4] - Analysts question the extent to which the higher U.S. tariffs will impact India's procurement of Russian oil, suggesting that secondary tariffs may not be sufficient to deter purchases [5] Group 5 - The Ukraine conflict is also affecting the oil market through drone attacks on Russian refineries, which are reducing operational capacity and forcing Russia to increase its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day from western ports [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to widen, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [1] - This surplus is projected to lead to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [1] - Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to drop to just above $50 by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Rosneft stated that despite OPEC+ increasing oil production, there will not be an oil surplus in the long term [1] Group 1 - Rosneft's CEO emphasizes confidence in the oil market stability despite production increases by OPEC+ [1] - The statement suggests a belief in sustained demand for oil, countering concerns about oversupply [1]