Group 1 - Goldman Sachs' research report indicates that Brent crude oil futures prices are expected to fall below $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing supply-demand imbalances in the global oil market [1] - The report forecasts an average surplus supply of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period [1] - OECD member countries are projected to account for one-third of the global inventory increase, with an estimated rise of about 270 million barrels [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the dual pressure of inventory buildup and declining oil demand in OECD countries will push the fair value of Brent crude oil down from the current level of approximately $75 [1] - Although oil prices may fluctuate around forward contract prices for the remainder of 2025, significant inventory pressure is expected to exacerbate in 2026, leading to a drop below current market expectations [1] - If China's crude oil inventory growth accelerates from an average of 400,000 barrels per day in the first eight months of this year to 800,000 barrels per day, the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 could rise by $6 to $62 compared to the baseline forecast [1] Group 3 - As of the report's release, international oil prices continue to show a weak and volatile trend, with Brent crude futures at $67 per barrel and WTI at $63 per barrel, both significantly lower than their peaks earlier in the year [2] - Market analysis suggests that slowing global economic growth is leading to weak demand, compounded by increased production from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, heightening concerns over oversupply in the market [2]

然而，报告称，如果中国库存增长从今年迄今的每日40万桶加速至每日80万桶，那么与该行的基线情景 相比，2026年的布伦特原油平均价格将上涨6美元，达到62美元。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 高盛集团预计，由于明年石油过剩加剧，布伦特原油期货合约价格到2026年底将降至每桶50美元区间的 低位。 这家美国投资银行在周二给客户的一份报告中说，"我们预计，从2025年第四季度到2026年第四季度， 石油过剩将扩大，平均每日达到180万桶，导致到2026年底全球库存增加近8亿桶。" 该行估计，到2026年，储存在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国的石油将占全球总库存的三分之 一，即2.7亿桶。报告称，这加上经合组织国家需求的减少，将使布伦特原油的公允价值从目前70多美 元的中间水平降低。 高盛表示，布伦特原油价格在2025年剩余时间里可能将保持在接近远期合约的水平，但随着经合组织库 存加速增长，明年将跌破这些远期合约的价格。 周三，布伦特原油期货徘徊在每桶67美元附近，WTI原油期货价格徘徊在63美元附近。目前市场正关注 乌克兰冲突的最新动态，并权衡美国对世界第三大原油消费国印度征收高 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to widen, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [1] - This surplus is projected to lead to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [1] - Brent crude oil prices are anticipated to drop to just above $50 by the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Rosneft stated that despite OPEC+ increasing oil production, there will not be an oil surplus in the long term [1] Group 1 - Rosneft's CEO emphasizes confidence in the oil market stability despite production increases by OPEC+ [1] - The statement suggests a belief in sustained demand for oil, countering concerns about oversupply [1]