Group 1: Hot News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on the afternoon of March 12, approving the government work report, the "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, the national economic and social development plan for 2026, the central budget for 2026, and passing the Ecological Environment Code, the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, and the National Development Planning Law [2] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement since taking office, stating that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and will open new fronts if necessary, calling on neighboring countries to close military bases used by the United States. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report, significantly reducing the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. The IEA said that the conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and it is expected that global oil supply will plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March [2] - As of the week ending March 12, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventories increased for eight consecutive weeks, social inventories increased for ten consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased for three consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, an increase of 219,900 tons or 12.69% from the previous week; rebar social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons or 2.63% from the previous week; rebar apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, an increase of 785,800 tons or 80% from the previous week [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange decided to adjust the price limit range and trading margin ratio for certain contracts. For the gold AU2704 contract, the price limit range is 17%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 18%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 19%. For the silver AG2703 contract, the price limit range is 20%, the hedging position trading margin ratio is 21%, and the general position trading margin ratio is 22% [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include urea, coking coal, apples, asphalt, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - The night session performance of various commodity sectors shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.41%, the precious metals sector rose 29.57%, the oilseeds and fats sector rose 8.29%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 8.50%, the energy sector rose 7.37%, the chemical sector rose 14.45%, the grain sector rose 1.00%, the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.54%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.46%, and the non-ferrous metals sector rose 23.40% [4][5] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - The performance of major asset classes shows that the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a monthly decline of 0.81%, and an annual increase of 4.04%. Other equity indices such as the S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and German DAX also had different levels of daily, monthly, and annual changes. In the fixed-income category, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures had positive daily changes. In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, and other commodities also showed different trends [7] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3-month copper, and others, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premium of the stock market [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilizing, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain [4][13]. - The prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals have continued to surge, with gold and silver hitting new highs. The gold recycling business has boomed, and the scale of gold-themed funds has grown significantly [5][6]. - The A-share market has seen resource stocks rally, while the photovoltaic industry chain has adjusted. The Hong Kong stock market has also risen, with the Hang Seng Index hitting a new high since August 2021 [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, up from 49.8% in the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - The non-manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 52.2% in the same period last year [1]. - Social financing in December 2025 was 2.2075 trillion yuan, down from 3.5299 trillion yuan in the previous month and 2.8537 trillion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in December 2025 were 10.2%, 3.8%, and 8.5% respectively [1]. - New RMB loans in December 2025 were 910 billion yuan, down from 1.29 trillion yuan in the previous month and 990 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% in the same period last year [1]. - The PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, narrowing from -2.3% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, down from -0.5% in the previous period and 3.2% in the same period last year [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.5% in the previous period but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1]. - Exports in December 2025 increased by 6.6% year-on-year, down from 8.2% in the previous month and 10.67% in the same period last year [1]. - Imports in December 2025 increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 7.4% in the previous month but up from 0.84% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Futures exchanges have tightened risk control. The Shanghai Gold Exchange will adjust the margin level of the Ag(T+D) contract to 20% and the daily limit to 19% from the close of trading on January 30 [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily limit and margin ratio of nickel and other futures contracts from the close of trading on January 30 [2]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised the margin requirements for silver, platinum, and palladium [2]. - On January 28, 32 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 36 had negative basis. The basis of Shanghai nickel, live pigs, and eggs was the largest, while that of Shanghai tin, butadiene rubber, and international copper was the smallest [3]. - The Guotou Silver LOF will be suspended from trading from 9:30 to 10:30 on January 29, 2026. If the premium rate of its secondary market trading price does not effectively decline, the fund has the right to take measures such as applying for intraday suspension or extending the suspension time to alert the market to risks [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On January 29, spot silver and New York silver futures exceeded $119 per ounce, hitting new highs. Spot gold fell below $5,500, dropping more than $100 in the short term. Palladium futures exceeded $2,100 per ounce, rising 11.67% intraday [5]. - On January 28, most London base metals rose. The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has affected global liquidity expectations, and the long-term demand logic of base metals is being re-evaluated [5]. - The prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals have continued to surge. On January 28, the gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange exceeded $5,400 per ounce, and the domestic gold futures price approached 1,200 yuan per gram. The precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors in the A-share market have seen a wave of limit-up stocks [5]. - The gold recycling business has boomed. The scale of gold-themed funds has grown significantly, with the total scale of 53 gold-themed funds approaching 380 billion yuan as of January 28, an increase of nearly 100 billion yuan from the end of last year, a rise of 35.7% [6]. - Russia's Norilsk Nickel expects its nickel production in 2026 to be between 19,300 and 20,300 tons and its palladium production to be between 2.415 and 2.465 million ounces [7]. - As of January 27, lead inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 209,175 tons; copper inventory increased by 1,575 tons to 173,925 tons, hitting a new high in more than eight months; aluminum inventory decreased by 2,275 tons to 499,975 tons; tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 7,060 tons; nickel inventory increased by 612 tons to 286,338 tons, hitting a new high in more than seven years and seven months; zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons to 110,375 tons; aluminum alloy inventory remained stable at 1,500 tons, the lowest level in more than four years and ten months; and cobalt inventory remained stable at 121 tons, the lowest level in more than one year and three months [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The EU and Vietnam are expected to deepen cooperation on critical minerals and semiconductors [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The main contract of U.S. crude oil closed higher. Trump warned Iran to reach an agreement as soon as possible, and U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels last week, more than expected, supporting oil prices [9]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bezant said that an increase in Venezuelan crude oil supply means a decrease in natural gas prices [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed work to stabilize beef cattle production and accelerate the relief of the dairy industry. It emphasizes the need to implement relief support policies, stabilize basic production capacity, and promote the high-quality development of the industry [11]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 28, the central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 1.4 billion yuan [12]. - On January 28, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a tender for the first-phase central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposit in 2026, with a winning amount of 150 billion yuan and a winning interest rate of 1.73% [12]. 3.3.2 Important News - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilizing, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain [4][13]. - The "report card" of central state-owned enterprises in 2025 was released. By the end of 2025, the total assets of central state-owned enterprises exceeded 95 trillion yuan, and the total profit in 2025 was 2.5 trillion yuan. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council will promote the establishment of new central state-owned enterprises and strategic reorganizations and is drafting a document on promoting the cultivation of emerging pillar industries by central state-owned enterprises [13]. - The National Tax Work Conference emphasized the need to strengthen the standardization of tax incentives. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the tax department collected more than 156 trillion yuan in taxes and fees, accounting for about 80% of the full-caliber fiscal revenue, and provided more than 10 trillion yuan in tax cuts, fee reductions, and tax refunds [14][15]. - China will host the first senior officials' meeting and related meetings of APEC in Guangzhou from February 1 to 10, 2026 [15]. - The 2026 National Population and Family Development Work Conference emphasized the need to optimize fertility support policies and incentives, promote a positive marriage and childbearing concept, and develop inclusive childcare services [15]. - The "report cards" of China's economic provinces in 2025 were released. Guangdong and Jiangsu both exceeded 14 trillion yuan in GDP, and Shandong became the third province with a GDP exceeding 10 trillion yuan [15]. - Nearly 60% of surveyed U.S. companies plan to increase their investment in China, more than half of the surveyed companies expect to make a profit or a significant profit in 2025, and more than 70% of the companies have not considered moving their production or procurement links outside China [15]. - Many real estate companies have confirmed that they are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly. However, some troubled real estate companies are still required to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratios to the special team in their headquarters cities regularly [16]. - In 2025, a total of 27,100 urban old communities and 4.99 million households were renovated, with a total investment of 133.2 billion yuan [16]. - With the decline in deposit interest rates and the maturity of a large number of high - interest fixed deposits, residents' deposits are flowing into the market. There is a trend of seeking "deposit alternatives" [16]. - As of the end of December 2025, the total scale of China's public funds reached 37.7 trillion yuan, a record high. The scale of bond funds increased by more than 410 billion yuan, and the scale of stock funds increased by more than 250 billion yuan [16][17]. - Qinghai Province plans to actively resolve local debt risks and exit the list of key provinces for local debt [17]. - The Hong Kong branch of the China Development Bank successfully issued 5.5 billion yuan of RMB public bonds in the Macao Special Administrative Region, including 3.5 billion yuan of 3 - year special bonds with an issue interest rate of 1.75% and 2 billion yuan of 5 - year special bonds with an issue interest rate of 1.85% [17]. - The Ministry of Finance announced the ranking of spot trading volumes of book - entry treasury bonds in 2025. Ping An Bank, Citic Securities, and Orient Securities ranked among the top three [18]. - Tianjin's bond market has achieved good development, with the issuance of Tianjin's science and technology innovation bonds reaching 12.811 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%, and the issuance of green bonds reaching 18.027 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58.9% [18]. - The bid - to - cover ratio of Japan's 40 - year treasury bond auction reached 2.76, the highest level since March 2025, temporarily alleviating the tension in the bond market [18]. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting showed that if the outlook is in line with expectations, it is advisable to continue raising interest rates [19]. - There were a series of bond - related events, including equity transfers, bond redemptions, and credit rating changes [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market warmed up in the afternoon, with the yields of interest - rate bonds generally declining. The 10 - year treasury bond yield reached 1.81%. Bond futures rose across the board, and the money market was stable with little price change. The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke's bonds performed strongly, while some other bonds declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.85%, and the money market interest rates mostly declined [22][23]. - The winning yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 1.0356 - year, 3 - year, and 10 - year financial bonds were 1.4720%, 1.6074%, and 1.9650% respectively. The winning yields of Export - Import Bank of China's 2 - year and 3 - year financial bonds were 1.5501% and 1.6044% respectively [24]. - The yields of European government bonds mostly declined, while the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds were mixed [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 6.9453 against the U.S. dollar, up 123 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.9755, up 103 basis points from the previous trading day [25]. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.63% to 96.35 in New York trading. Non - U.S. currencies showed mixed performance [26]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment's research shows that the pricing power of long - duration interest - rate bonds is concentrated in funds, while rural commercial banks are "passive" allocation players. Insurance companies have a small amount of pricing power in ultra - long - term treasury bonds, and large banks have more pricing power in short - duration treasury bonds. The change speed of bond fund duration is a better indicator for short - term timing [27]. - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that there is no need to be overly worried about the current deposit transfer. The transfer of corporate deposits has been occurring since April 2024, and the transfer of residents' deposits is not a major concern for now [27]. - CITIC Securities states that the U.S. private banking industry has a mature system, and the asset allocation of Chinese private banking is shifting from deposits and real estate to functional products and service - based architectures [28]. 3.4 Stock Market News - The A - share market fluctuated, with resource stocks surging and the photovoltaic industry chain adjusting. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.57%, the North Star 50 Index fell 0.16%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 0.11%. The market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hang Seng Index rose 2.58% to 27,826.91, hitting a new high since August 2021. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.89%. The precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and petroleum sectors led the gains. Mingming很忙, the "first stock in the bulk snack industry," rose 69% on its first day of listing. Southbound funds sold more than HK$3.4 billion, with net sales for four consecutive trading days [31].

Group 1: Hot News - Trump denied his involvement in the Justice Department's subpoena to the Federal Reserve and said Fed Chair Powell's performance was poor [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange warned of market uncertainties and price fluctuations, and will strengthen supervision [2] - Shanghai Gold Exchange notified significant price fluctuations in precious metals and advised risk prevention [2] - The Australian government plans to buy and stockpile key minerals worth A$1.2 billion from local miners [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key commodities to watch: silver, caustic soda, tin, nickel, PVC [3] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.05%, precious metals 32.45%, etc. [3] Group 3: Sector Position - Shows the five - day change in commodity futures sector positions from January 6 - 12, 2026 [4] Group 4: Major Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% daily, 4.95% monthly and yearly; other indices had various performances [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury futures rose 0.06% daily, - 0.01% monthly and yearly; others had different changes [5] - Commodities: CRB Commodity Index rose 0.85% daily, 1.76% monthly and yearly; other commodities also had different performances [5] - Others: the US Dollar Index fell 0.24% daily, rose 0.64% monthly and yearly; CBOE Volatility was flat daily, fell 3.08% monthly and yearly [5] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - Displays the trends of major commodities such as BDI, CRB index, WTI crude oil, etc. [6]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - On Thursday, the main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main platinum futures contract nearly hit the limit. Starting from the trading session on December 23, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted to a maximum daily opening position of 500 lots for platinum and palladium futures contracts respectively. Also, from the trading session on December 22, the minimum opening order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts is adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots [3] - China has re - implemented export license management for steel after 16 years, aiming to strengthen monitoring, statistical analysis, and quality tracking of steel product exports. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce has approved some general export license applications for rare earths. China strongly opposes the EU's recent investigations under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) and will take necessary measures [3] - A giant undersea gold mine, the only one in China and the largest in Asia, has been discovered in the northern waters of Sanshandao, Laizhou, Shandong. The city's total proven gold reserves exceed 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the country's total, ranking first in both reserves and production nationwide [3] - At the "2025 Annual Conference of the Photovoltaic Industry", Yang Xudong, Director of the Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the photovoltaic industry governance will enter a critical stage in 2026, with further capacity regulation to achieve dynamic balance. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not predict the next - year's new installed capacity [3] - The US core CPI in November 2025 rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest pace since early 2021 and lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to the serious interference of the federal government shutdown in data collection [4] 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, palladium, plastic, and asphalt [5] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.42%, precious metals 33.32%, oilseeds and oils 8.49%, soft commodities 3.33%, non - ferrous metals 23.90%, coal, coke, and steel ore 10.87%, energy 2.51%, chemicals 10.29%, grains 1.27%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.60% [5] 4. Major Asset Performance - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes for various stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.16%, a monthly decrease of 0.31%, and an annual increase of 15.65%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have their respective performance data [7] - **Fixed - income**: The performance of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures is presented, including daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Commodity**: The performance of CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index is shown, with daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Other**: The performance of the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index is given, including their daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7]

Group 1: Hot News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the tariff exemptions on China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026, which were originally set to expire on November 29, 2025 [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to address disorderly price competition among enterprises to maintain market price order [2] - From January to October 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, but in October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement in key areas and fair competition reviews [2] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch include lithium carbonate, coke, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - trading performance shows that different commodity futures sectors had varying degrees of price changes, with precious metals up 30.01%, non - metallic building materials up 3.02%, and so on [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, with different trends for each sector [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.29%, a monthly decrease of 2.01%, and a yearly increase of 15.62%. Other indices also had their respective performance [6] - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative returns to varying degrees [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index had different price changes [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed their own trends [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, after the U.S. government ended its shutdown, market sentiment varied, and asset trends diverged. The controversy over AI bubble resurfaced, and the high - level decline of safe - haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin raised market concerns, resulting in a decline in investors' risk appetite and a slight increase in the VIX volatility index. Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, with A - shares leading the decline after reaching a high, while the Hang Seng Index had a relatively large increase. The BDI index rose, U.S. bond yields increased, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose [4][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 3.92%. Among the 10 commodity sub - sector indices, 6 closed up and 4 closed down. Commodity futures generally maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products [4][13]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Global asset trends: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, A - shares led the decline after reaching a high, the Hang Seng Index rose, the BDI index increased, U.S. bond yields went up, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose, with precious metals stabilizing, rebounding, and then fluctuating at a high level, and copper and oil prices slightly rebounding [4][8]. - Domestic market performance: The domestic bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 3.92%. Commodity futures maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products, with precious metals leading the rise, followed by significant increases in the agricultural products, grains, and oilseeds sectors. The non - ferrous and chemical sectors slightly closed up, while other sectors all closed down, with the coal, coking, steel, and mining and energy sectors having the largest declines [4][13]. - Futures market capital flow: The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flowed in. The precious metals, non - metallic building materials, oilseeds, and non - ferrous sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the soft commodities, coal, coking, steel, and mining, and chemical sectors had obvious capital outflows [4][15]. - Commodity volatility: The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index significantly increased, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index showed a divergent performance of one rising and one falling. Most of the commodity futures sub - sector volatilities declined, with the oilseeds, non - ferrous, soft commodities, and coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors having the largest decline in volatility, and the energy sector having the most obvious increase in volatility [5][22]. Variety Performance - The domestic major commodity futures showed mixed performance in the recent week. The top - rising commodity futures varieties were Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, and apples, while the top - falling varieties were glass, coke, and red dates [18][21]. Data Tracking - International commodities: International major commodities generally closed up, the BDI slightly increased, the CRB was flat, soybeans and corn rose, and copper, oil, gold, and silver all closed up, with the silver price rising more and the gold - silver ratio significantly declining [26]. - Domestic data: Asphalt production rate continued to decline, real - estate sales were weakly bottom - seeking, freight rates rebounded with differentiation, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [41]. Macro Logic - Stock market: The domestic four major stock indices fluctuated and declined last week. In terms of style, value stocks were obviously more resistant to decline, while growth - style stock indices were relatively weaker. The valuation of stock indices declined, and the equity risk premium (ERP) changed little [30][31]. - Commodities: The commodity price index fluctuated and rebounded, and the inflation expectation was under downward pressure [34]. - U.S. bonds: U.S. bond yields rebounded, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread changed little, the real interest rate rebounded, and the gold price rebounded and then declined [49]. - U.S. economic indicators: The U.S. high - frequency "recession indicator" weakened, the Citi Economic Surprise Index showed differentiation, and the 10Y - 3M U.S. bond spread fluctuated in positive territory [60]. Fed Interest Rate Expectation The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 17): Canada's October CPI monthly rate, U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index [73]. - Tuesday (November 18): U.S. October Import Price Index monthly rate, U.S. October Industrial Production monthly rate, U.S. November NAHB Housing Market Index, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari hosts a fireside chat, Reserve Bank of Australia releases November Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed visits the White House and meets with U.S. President Trump [73]. - Wednesday (November 19): U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, UK October CPI monthly rate, Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value, U.S. October New Housing Starts annualized, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending November 14 [73]. - Thursday (November 20): China's October Swift RMB share in global payments, China's one - year loan prime rate as of November 20, Germany's October PPI monthly rate, Switzerland's October trade balance, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15, U.S. November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Eurozone November Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value, U.S. October Existing Home Sales annualized, U.S. October Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate, U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending November 14, Fed releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, September non - farm payroll data [73]. - Friday (November 21): Japan's October core CPI annual rate, UK November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, UK November Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's September retail sales monthly rate, U.S. November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. November one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee gives a speech, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker gives a speech on the economic outlook, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with some indicators improving and others weakening. Gold prices reach new highs, while oil prices decline due to potential supply increases. The bond market has complex dynamics, and the stock market is segmented. [1][4][9] - The paper industry's prices are rising due to raw material cost increases, and the coal - coking - steel - mining market is expected to have a positive trend in September. [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7%. [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as last year. [1] - In July 2025, social financing scale increment was 11320 billion yuan, down from 42251 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 7707 billion yuan last year. [1] - In July 2025, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth accelerated compared to the previous month and last year, while M0 growth slowed slightly. [1] - In July 2025, CPI year - on - year was 0.0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% last year. PPI year - on - year was - 3.6%, the same as the previous month but lower than - 0.8% last year. [1] - In July 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.6%, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% last year. Social consumer goods retail cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.8%, down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% last year. [1] - In July 2025, export and import year - on - year growth were 7.2% and 4.1% respectively, both showing an upward trend compared to the previous month. [1] Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From September 5, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange will adjust the margin levels and price limit ranges for multiple gold and silver contracts. [2] - The London Metal Exchange postponed its Asian opening on a Wednesday by 90 minutes without stating a reason. [2] - Major paper mills announced price increases in early September due to rising raw material costs, and the industry's supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year. [2] - China imposed anti - dumping duties on certain optical fibers imported from the US, with different tax rates for different companies. [3] - China's August S&P Global services PMI was 53, and the composite PMI was 51.9, both higher than the previous month. [3] Metals - Gold prices reached new highs on September 3, 2025, with London Gold Spot and COMEX Gold hitting record levels, and domestic gold prices also rising. [4] - The World Gold Council is seeking to introduce digital gold, which may transform the London gold market. [5] - Nickel and tin inventories increased on September 2, 2025, while lead and zinc inventories decreased. [6] - Citi adjusted its price forecasts for silver, aluminum, and copper, expressing optimism about copper prices. [6] Coal - Coking - Steel - Mining - Since July 2025, steel prices have recovered, and upstream coking coal and coke prices have risen significantly. The steel market in September may see an upward trend. [7] - Shaanxi has made achievements in mineral exploration during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, exceeding the national targets. [8] - The EU is working on new steel and aluminum safeguard measures after 2026. [8] Energy and Chemicals - On September 3, 2025, international oil prices declined due to potential OPEC+ production increases, an unexpected increase in US API crude inventories, and reduced geopolitical concerns. [9] - OPEC's August oil production increased by 400,000 barrels per day. [10] - Russia's September oil exports from western ports are expected to decline by 6% compared to August. [10] - Colombia's July oil production decreased by 4.8% year - on - year. [10] - Citi slightly lowered its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast. [10] Agricultural Products - India's August soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month, while palm oil imports increased by 16%. [11] - Argentina's August agricultural product export revenue decreased by 25% year - on - year. [11] - Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 10.22% month - on - month. [12] Financial News Open Market - On September 3, 2025, the central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan. [13] Key News - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank discussed issues related to the bond market and aims to promote its stable development. [14] - Since the implementation of the "science and technology board" policy in the bond market, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has accelerated, with a total issuance scale exceeding 1.02 trillion yuan since May. [14] - Tianjin's first private technology enterprise science and technology innovation bond was successfully issued. [14] - The China - SCO Digital Economy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Tianjin. [15] - 12 provinces have raised their minimum wage standards this year, and all 31 provinces' highest - grade monthly minimum wage standards exceed 2000 yuan. [16] - Shanghai's "Six Measures" for the property market have had a positive initial impact, and the market is expected to recover. [16] - In 2024, the total issuance of green and sustainable debt in Hong Kong reached 84.4 billion US dollars, and the HKMA is researching the application of tokenization technology in sustainable finance. [17] - The global long - term treasury bond sell - off intensifies, with yields rising in many countries. [17] - There were corporate events such as leadership changes, name changes, and bond redemptions in the corporate bond market. [18] - Some companies' credit ratings were confirmed or adjusted by international rating agencies. [18] Bond Market Review - The bond market was positive on September 3, 2025, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market falling, and treasury bond futures rising. [19] - The currency market interest rates showed mixed trends, and some short - term Shibor rates reached new lows. [20] - The winning bid yields and multiples of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were announced. [21] - Repurchase fixed - rate and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and European and US bond yields generally declined. [22] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on September 3, 2025, while the RMB central parity rate was depreciated. The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose. [23] Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the yields and credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds are at relatively high levels since 2021, and the long - end US bond yields may rise. [24] - Huatai Fixed Income reports that "fixed income +" products have experienced large - scale redemptions, affecting the stock - bond relationship. [25] - Xingzheng Fixed Income also points out that the PMI in August shows some improvements, but the bond market may be affected by the equity market. [25] Stock Market - The A - share market was segmented on September 3, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index falling. The market turnover decreased. [27] - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with financial and consumer sectors falling and pharmaceutical stocks rising. Southbound funds had a large - scale net inflow, and Alibaba was significantly added. [28] - Southbound funds' net inflow to the Hong Kong stock market reached a record high this year, and most Hong Kong - Stock Connect stocks' shareholdings increased. [28] - 41 brokerages have completed their September golden stock recommendations, and they are generally optimistic about the A - share market. [28] - Since August, institutions have actively investigated North Exchange listed companies. [29]

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 General - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12% [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the effects of the implemented policies will further emerge [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of options on fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the registration of futures and options on offset printing paper [2] 2.2 Metals - The first - batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2025 have been issued to relevant companies, and it is expected that these indicators may no longer be publicly announced [5] - In July 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $3.2 billion, and the total assets under management reached a record high of $386 billion [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early August 2025, coal prices in China showed an all - round increase, with the price of coke rising by nearly 10% [7] - In July 2025, China's industrial raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; crude oil production was 18.12 million tons, an increase of 1.2%; natural gas production was 21.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.4% [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's Sinopec discovered a large - scale deep - seated shale gas field with newly proven geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters [10] - Indonesia expects its oil production to reach 610,000 barrels per day in 2026 and its natural gas production to reach 984,000 barrels per day [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On August 15, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 28.87 yuan/kg, a weekly decrease of 5.03% [12] - As of early August 2025, the purchase of summer wheat in China exceeded 80 million tons, faster than last year [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - This week, 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits will mature on Tuesday and Wednesday [13] - On August 15, the central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 116 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and optimizing the credit structure [14] - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was weak, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and most treasury bond futures closing down [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.90% to 475.25 points, with a trading volume of 103.1 billion yuan [20] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823, down 93 basis points from the previous trading day [23] - The US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, and most non - US currencies rose [23] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes that the central bank emphasizes promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and current credit delivery focuses more on quality [24] - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the economic data in July were slightly volatile, and the "fixed - income +" strategy is favored [24] 4. Stock Market News - As of August 15, 2025, 310 stocks had more than doubled in price this year, excluding new listings [28] - China Securities recommends focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and gaming [28] - As of August 15, 2025, 936 out of 1,785 funds established in 2021 had a net value above 1, accounting for 52.44% [29]