1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but slightly higher than 50.2% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 General - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12% [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the effects of the implemented policies will further emerge [2] - The CSRC approved the registration of options on fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the registration of futures and options on offset printing paper [2] 2.2 Metals - The first - batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2025 have been issued to relevant companies, and it is expected that these indicators may no longer be publicly announced [5] - In July 2025, global physical gold ETFs had an inflow of $3.2 billion, and the total assets under management reached a record high of $386 billion [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In early August 2025, coal prices in China showed an all - round increase, with the price of coke rising by nearly 10% [7] - In July 2025, China's industrial raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; crude oil production was 18.12 million tons, an increase of 1.2%; natural gas production was 21.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.4% [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's Sinopec discovered a large - scale deep - seated shale gas field with newly proven geological reserves of 124.588 billion cubic meters [10] - Indonesia expects its oil production to reach 610,000 barrels per day in 2026 and its natural gas production to reach 984,000 barrels per day [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On August 15, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 13.76 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.36%, while the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 28.87 yuan/kg, a weekly decrease of 5.03% [12] - As of early August 2025, the purchase of summer wheat in China exceeded 80 million tons, faster than last year [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - This week, 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits will mature on Tuesday and Wednesday [13] - On August 15, the central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 116 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices and optimizing the credit structure [14] - In July 2025, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year [15] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was weak, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising, and most treasury bond futures closing down [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.90% to 475.25 points, with a trading volume of 103.1 billion yuan [20] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823, down 93 basis points from the previous trading day [23] - The US dollar index fell 0.36% to 97.8509, and most non - US currencies rose [23] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed - Income believes that the central bank emphasizes promoting a reasonable recovery of prices, and current credit delivery focuses more on quality [24] - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the economic data in July were slightly volatile, and the "fixed - income +" strategy is favored [24] 4. Stock Market News - As of August 15, 2025, 310 stocks had more than doubled in price this year, excluding new listings [28] - China Securities recommends focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and gaming [28] - As of August 15, 2025, 936 out of 1,785 funds established in 2021 had a net value above 1, accounting for 52.44% [29]