Core Insights - Lithium carbonate futures prices reached the lowest point since July 2023 in late June 2025, with fluctuations influenced by "anti-involution" policies and production halts in Ningde Times [1] - Supply of lithium carbonate is growing rapidly, with domestic production in September reaching 87,260 tons, a 2% month-on-month increase and a 52% year-on-year increase [1] - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, driven by the production of battery materials, with significant increases in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [3] Supply Analysis - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials showed mixed results: spodumene production increased by 5%, while lithium mica decreased by 15%, and salt lake production rose by 10% [1] - Cumulative lithium carbonate production from January to September reached 643,700 tons, a 42% year-on-year increase [1] - Despite potential disruptions in the Jiangxi Yichun mining area, new capacities from spodumene and salt lakes are expected to push October production close to 90,000 tons [1] Demand Analysis - The production of lithium iron phosphate in September was 356,800 tons, reflecting a 12.8% month-on-month and a 42% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued growth in October [3] - Ternary material production in September was 75,000 tons, showing a 2.6% month-on-month and a 31.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The overall production of power batteries and other batteries in September increased by 50% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 44% from January to September [3] Inventory and Market Trends - As of last week, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 132,700 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons, indicating an accelerated destocking process [4] - The number of registered futures warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, suggesting improved demand from downstream and traders [4] - The futures market shows signs of a potential rebound, with the main contract price breaking through the upper range of 75,000 yuan/ton, indicating a possibility of continued upward movement [4]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate last week had a production of 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. The demand - side showed a decrease in inventories of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. The cost - side had different profit and loss situations for different raw materials. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price on August 7th was 71,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,200 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract, indicating a bearish basis. Overall, the lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,580 - 74,020 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some bullish factors like manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, and a decrease in imports from Chile, while bearish factors include continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends and insufficient willingness of power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased week - on - week but was above the historical average. Demand - side inventories decreased. Different raw materials on the cost - side had different profit and loss situations. Overall, it is neutral [8]. - **Basis**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price on August 7th was 71,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,200 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract, which is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased week - on - week but was above the historical average. The inventory situation of different links was different, and it is neutral [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 18,500 physical tons in the next month, a 2.78% increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,580 - 74,020 [8]. - **Bullish Factors**: Manufacturers' stop - production and reduction plans, a decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports [9]. - **Bearish Factors**: Continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Yesterday's Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.20% to 757 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) increased by 3.55% to 1,750 yuan/ton. Other related lithium ore prices also had different degrees of increase [13]. - **Lithium Compounds and Related Products**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other products increased to varying degrees, while some products like anhydrous lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [13]. - **Positive Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries had small fluctuations, and some remained unchanged [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related 3.3.1 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has shown historical fluctuations. The production of sample lithium spodumene mines in China and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate also varies, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has changed over time [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The demand, production, import, and export of domestic lithium ore from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are shortages in most months [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) has different trends. The monthly production by grade and raw material classification also shows changes. The monthly import volume from different countries and the overall import volume are presented [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The demand, export, import, and production of lithium carbonate from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are surpluses and shortages in different months [32]. 3.3.3 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years. The monthly production from different sources (causticization and smelting) and the overall production are presented [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The demand, export, import, and production of lithium hydroxide from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are surpluses and shortages in different months [37]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials are presented over time. There are also data on the cost and profit of lithium hydroxide processing and related production processes [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The monthly and weekly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelter, downstream, and others) are presented, showing changes over time [48]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventories of lithium hydroxide in different links (downstream and smelter) are presented [48]. 3.6 Demand - Related 3.6.1 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Sales**: The price, production, and sales of lithium batteries and related cells have shown historical fluctuations. The export volume of lithium batteries also varies in different years [51]. - **Inventory and Tendering**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the tendering situation of energy storage projects are presented [54]. 3.6.2 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors of different series have shown historical changes. The capacity utilization rate and monthly production are also given [57]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The demand, export, import, and production of ternary precursors from July 2024 to July 2025 are given, and the balance situation is calculated. There are surpluses and shortages in different months [60]. 3.6.3 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials of different series have shown historical changes. The weekly inventory, import, and export volumes are also presented [63][65]. 3.6.4 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have shown historical changes. The monthly production, export volume, and weekly inventory are also presented [67][70]. 3.6.5 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have shown historical changes. The retail - wholesale ratio and inventory early - warning index of dealers are also presented [75][76][79].

Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 opened at 64,300 yuan/ton and closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.71% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,014,558 lots, and the open interest was 356,161 lots, an increase of 33,301 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 600,972 lots, an increase of 9,072 lots. The total trading volume of contracts increased by 4,747 lots to 502,065, and the overall speculation degree was 0.84. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 11,204 lots, a decrease of 399 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong upward trend yesterday, opening higher, oscillating and surging, with bulls dominating during the session and stabilizing at a high level at the end of the session, finally closing up 3.71% [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 63,500 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Strategy - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures was mainly affected by news disturbances from Jiangxi's mining end and short - term warehouse receipt cancellations. July warehouse receipts need to be compulsorily cancelled, and there are few newly registered warehouse receipts currently, resulting in significant short - term delivery games, which have a greater impact on near - month contracts. The impact of the Jiangxi mining end disturbance on subsequent mining is not clear, and its short - term impact on supply and demand is relatively limited. Currently, the supply and demand are still relatively loose [2]. - In the medium to long term, there has been no substantial change in the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, and recent policies have little impact on it. The rebound height should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the impact of mining end disturbances. If the production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is affected, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate will change [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wait and see for near - month contracts, and sell and hedge on rallies for far - month contracts. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the weak and volatile trend may continue [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 65,960 yuan, down 300 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 114,538 lots, down 13,523 lots; the open interest was 244,729 lots, down 4,318 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 67,220 yuan, down 440 yuan; the trading volume was 13,046 lots, up 348 lots; the open interest was 35,957 lots, up 1,481 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,029 yuan/ton, down 343 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 67,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 773 US dollars, down 3 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,525 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salts and Related Products**: The prices of various lithium salts and related products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials showed different degrees of decline or change [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Sichuan Tianfu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. was established, with a registered capital of 500 million yuan. It is wholly - owned by Sichuan Natural Resources Investment Group Co., Ltd., marking the official entry of Sichuan state - owned capital into the lithium ore competition [3]. - The White House said that Trump would sign an executive order to reduce the impact of auto tariffs, and companies paying auto tariffs would no longer be subject to other tariffs such as aluminum and steel, and the paid tariffs would be compensated [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3].