1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate continues to show a tight supply - demand balance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks, and the de - stocking amplitude has further expanded. Although domestic production has continuously reached new highs and the import volume is expected to increase in November, the terminal market is strong. However, the expected acceleration of the resumption of production may put pressure on the price. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking for long positions near the previous high and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In October, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50 in October, with Germany and France in continuous contraction. The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for 8 consecutive months, but the service PMI reached an 8 - month high. The US government shutdown has entered its 36th day [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 50%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, with 16,200 tons exported to China [3]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 7% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a 9% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.922 million vehicles, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 4% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 23.769 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased. The price of African SC 5% remained unchanged at $630 per ton compared to last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $940 per ton, a decrease of $53 per ton from last week. The market price of lepidolite was 2,775 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan from last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of November 6, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 30,715 tons, a decrease of 1,336 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.6 Market Review - As of November 7, LC2601 closed at 82,300 yuan per ton, a 1.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,250 yuan per ton, a 2.7% decrease from last week. The basis discount widened, and the main contract's open interest was 492,000. The main contract first declined and then rose this week. On Tuesday, the market was impacted by the news of the full resumption of mica mines by CATL and Guoxuan, causing the lithium price to drop significantly. However, due to strong downstream demand, tight supply - demand balance, and continuous de - stocking, the price was difficult to fall deeply [8]. 3.7 Product Output and Operating Rate - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of November 7, the output was 23,465 tons, a week - on - week increase of 145 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 51.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. The price increase stimulated production enthusiasm, and the production of some enterprises increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: As of November 7, the output was 6,455 tons, a week - on - week increase of 165 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 36.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.72%. Mainstream holders focused on fulfilling long - term contracts, and cathode material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [12]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of November 7, the output was 96,856 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,420 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 85.24%, a week - on - week increase of 7.41%. The industry was in a situation of both strong supply and demand [14]. - **Ternary Materials**: The demand in the power field was strong, and the production schedule increased slightly [16]. - **Other Cathode Materials**: The demand structure was differentiated, and the supply remained stable [24]. 3.8 Inventory Situation - **Lithium Carbonate Industry**: As of November 6, the total inventory was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,332 tons, a decrease of 289 tons from last week. The post - holiday de - stocking accelerated, and the warehouse receipt continued to decline, intensifying the tightness of spot circulation [32]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry**: As of November 7, the total inventory was 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons from last week. The finished - product inventory continued to decline, and the market demand drove inventory digestion [35]. 3.9 Cost and Profit of Products - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of November 7, the production cost was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuation of lithium carbonate, and the de - stocking trend supported the price [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: As of November 7, the production cost was 68,465 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1,001 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 7,643 yuan per ton, an increase of 943 yuan from last week. The supply tightened, and the inventory de - stocking supported the price [51]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of November 7, the production cost was 36,677 yuan per ton, a decrease of 220 yuan from last week, and the loss was 2,463 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week. Although the raw material price was strong and the demand was high, the over - capacity of conventional products limited price increases [53]. - **Ternary Materials and Other Products**: The cost - profit transmission was not smooth, and the industry profit level faced challenges [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still in a destocking pattern. Amidst news disturbances, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated sharply this week, and the long - term buying value is significant [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Supply - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic mica monthly output increased, lithium spodumene and recycling output continued to grow, and domestic lithium salt production capacity increased in November. The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has been identified, with expected cost increase, but the actual resumption of production needs to be tracked. The lithium carbonate futures reached a high of 85,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the hedging supply of recycled materials [11] - **Foreign Supply (Imports)**: In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports, while Mali's imports were zero. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). Additionally, 8,000 tons of lithium sulfate were imported from Chile [11] Demand - In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 10.54% and 11.58% month - on - month respectively, and the production schedule in November is expected to remain strong. Solid - state batteries are a continuously focused area with strong policy support, and currently, more attention is on the increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate [11] Inventory - Weekly inventory has been decreasing month - on - month for about 3 months. This week, it was 124,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,405 tons, and the destocking is accelerating. Warehouse receipts on Friday were 27,332 tons, a decrease of 309 tons during the week. Lithium ore weekly inventory increased for two consecutive weeks [11] Production Cost - Process improvements may reduce production costs. The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has decreased recently, and raw material prices decreased during the week [11] Balance Sheet - Without considering changes in mining permits, it is estimated that there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November [11] 3.2 Data Chart Tracking Price and Spread - **Price Changes**: As of Friday, the SMM valuation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton (-0.2%); lithium mica was 2,120 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton (-2.75%), with a cost reduction of 1,410 yuan/ton; lithium spodumene (6%) was 927 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 US dollars/ton (-1.8%), with a cost reduction of 1,071 yuan/ton [23] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between lithium carbonate and nickel strengthened during the week. The strategy of "long 1 and short 5" for the basis and monthly spread of lithium carbonate is presented [24][28] Production and Capacity - **Weekly Production and Capacity**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,534 tons (+454 tons), and the weekly production capacity utilization rate was 55.21% (+0.77%). Among them, the production capacity utilization rate of lithium spodumene was 65.17% (+0.47%), mica was 31.98% (+1.38%), and salt lakes was 58.37% (-3.84%). The recycling end production capacity utilization rate was 29.88% (-6.69%) [34] - **Monthly Production**: In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 775,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The production of lithium hydroxide in October was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% [35] - **New Capacity**: In November, the lithium element production capacity will continue to grow (110,000 tons). Newly put - into - production projects include 10,000 tons of lithium salt from Tibet Mining, 30,000 tons from Luopu Xihai New Energy, 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium hydroxide from Tianqi Lithium, and 40,000 tons of lithium salt from Salt Lake Co., Ltd [36] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Imports**: In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports. In October, China's lithium ore production (spodumene + mica) was 20,000 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [44] - **Lithium Carbonate Imports**: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, of which 16,200 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 5,100 tons (+46%) [47] Downstream Demand - **Positive Electrode Materials**: In October, the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 11.58% and 10.54% month - on - month respectively [48] - **Terminal Demand**: From January to September, the winning bid capacity for energy storage was 131.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15%, and the cumulative sales from January to September were 11.198 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.6% [57] Other Factors - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has been decreasing since June, and the price of potash fertilizer has fluctuated slightly recently. The US added potash fertilizer as a critical mineral on November 6 [61][66] - **Profit Analysis**: The profit from externally purchased lithium spodumene is slightly positive, while the lithium mica end is still in a loss [68] - **Balance Sheet Analysis**: The balance sheet shows that without considering the shutdown/restart of lithium mines in Jiangxi, there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November. New capacities of lithium spodumene and salt lakes are being put into production and ramping up, and the production schedule of positive electrode materials in November is continuously improving [72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term bearish, pay attention to decline risks [12][13] - Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index): Short - term volatile [16][17][18] - US stock index futures: Short - term high - level volatile, bullish in the long - term with profit support [20] - Stock index futures: Long - position balanced allocation [24] - Treasury bond futures: Short - term slightly bullish with limited upside, pay attention to rhythm and odds [27] - Palm oil: Short - term expected to open lower, pay attention to long - position opportunities around 8500 yuan [31] - International soybean oil: Short - term bottom - supported, expected to be volatile [31] - Domestic soybean oil: Short - term expected to be volatile [31] - Power coal: Price supported in the fourth quarter, pay attention to weather and policy [32] - Iron ore: Short - term volatile, pay attention to policy changes [34] - Bean粕: Follow import cost, pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [36] - Sugar: Short - term expected to be volatile [41] - Cotton: Short - term expected to be volatile, long - term cautiously bullish [46] - Rebar/Hot - rolled coil: Short - term volatile [50][51] - Red dates: Wait - and - see, pay attention to price game and purchase progress [52] - Corn starch: 11 - contract CS - C expected to strengthen further, 01 - contract may have price - difference repair [54][55] - Corn: If government - stored wheat is used for feed, there may be short - selling opportunities [56] - Alumina: Wait - and - see [59] - Copper: Short - term expected to be volatile after reaching a high, recommend buying on dips [63] - Lead: Low - inventory, short - term bullish with high uncertainty, positive spread arbitrage possible [65] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see, pay attention to mid - line positive spread arbitrage [70][71] - Polysilicon: Policy and fundamentals in game, long - position holders can hold, consider call options [74] - Industrial silicon: Buying on dips is cost - effective [76] - Lithium carbonate: Short - term range - bound, mid - line short - selling after demand peaks, pay attention to positive spread arbitrage [80][81] - Nickel: Q4 nickel ore price expected to rise, recommend long - position on dips or option strategies [84] - Carbon emissions: Short - term volatile [87] - Crude oil: Volatile [89] - Bottle chips: Short - term supply - demand conflict not prominent, marginal weakening expected [91] - Container freight rates: Volatile, consider long - position on dips [93] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, factors such as gold tax policy, Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rates, and economic data impact market trends. In the commodity market, supply and demand, policy, and seasonal factors affect prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and risks [12][16][30]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New gold tax policy: VAT on standard gold for investment is refunded immediately, and related taxes are exempted. Physical gold demand may be suppressed, and short - term price is bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index)) - Fed officials oppose December rate cuts due to high inflation, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US stock index futures) - Market expectations for rate cuts are adjusted, and short - term risk appetite declines. The market is volatile at a high level [19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock index futures) - October PMI shows production slowdown, and the stock index is expected to be volatile at a high level. Long - position balanced allocation is recommended [22][23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury bond futures) - October manufacturing PMI declines, and November is a policy window period. The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upside is limited [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean oil/Rapeseed oil/Palm oil) - Indonesian palm oil reference price rises slightly, and Malaysia's October palm oil exports increase. Palm oil price is under pressure in the short - term but may be supported later. Soybean oil is expected to be volatile [29][30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Power coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal price is stable. Coal price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the fourth quarter [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron ore) - Third - quarter iron ore sales increase. Demand is affected by environmental protection, and price is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Bean粕) - Oil mill operation rate is high, and bean粕 price follows import cost. Pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [35][36] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazilian sugar production increases, and Indian sugar industry requests export policy. Zheng sugar is expected to be volatile [40][41] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton inspection progress is slow, and drought area decreases. Cotton price is expected to be volatile [42][44][46] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - rolled coil) - Iron water output declines, and steel price is affected by Sino - US relations. Price is expected to be volatile [47][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Red dates) - Xinjiang red dates are in the drying period, and inventory increases. Price is expected to be volatile, wait - and - see [51][52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn starch) - September starch export declines, and October export may increase. 11 - contract CS - C and 01 - contract may strengthen [53][54][55] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn price is stable with narrow fluctuations. Pay attention to government - stored wheat auction [55][56] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Inventory increases, and the market is in oversupply. Wait - and - see [57][58][59] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple copper projects have new progress. Price is affected by the US dollar and inventory, expected to be volatile [60][63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead is in contango. Low - inventory supports price, pay attention to delivery risk [64][65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc mines' output changes. Price is affected by market sentiment and inventory, expected to be volatile [66][69][70] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon futures rise, and price is in a policy - fundamentals game. Pay attention to policy progress [72][73][74] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial silicon) - Southwest production is expected to decrease. Price is expected to be supported, recommend long - position on dips [75][76] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium carbonate) - Company negotiates to sell lithium project stake. Price is affected by supply - demand and inventory, expected to be volatile [77][78][81] 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Company's nickel self - supply increases. Price is affected by inventory, season, and demand, expected to be volatile [82][83][84] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon emissions) - EUA price is volatile. Market trading activity decreases, and signal is neutral [85][86][87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Crude oil) - OPEC decides to increase production in December and pause in Q1 2026. Price is expected to be volatile [87][88][89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle chips) - Bottle chip factory price is adjusted, and supply - demand is expected to weaken marginally [90][91] 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container freight rates) - Shipping company adjusts surcharge. Freight rate is expected to be volatile, consider long - position on dips [92][93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for lithium carbonate [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices first rose and then fell, with the closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 showing increases. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed accordingly. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased, but there were market rumors affecting the market sentiment, leading to profit - taking by long positions [1][2][13] - From a fundamental perspective, the demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. However, the inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, the short - term market will focus on the resumption rhythm of Jiangxi mica projects, with increased market volatility. It is recommended to use a range - trading approach. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. For arbitrage, the reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 has been gradually realized and can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seasonal Inventory Reduction Accelerates, and Supply - Side Game Intensifies - Lithium salt prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 increased by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.8% and 7.1% respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed [1][13] - The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 12.7 million tons this week, accelerating the inventory reduction. However, market rumors on Friday led to profit - taking by long positions [2][14] - The demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. The inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, short - term market volatility will increase with the game over the resumption of Jiangxi mica projects. A range - trading approach is recommended. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. The reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Pilbara's lithium spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased by 1.7% quarter - on - quarter, the sales price of spodumene SC6 increased by 19% quarter - on - quarter, and the operating cost per ton decreased by 13% [17] - Dazhong Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary obtained the mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with a lithium ore resource of 489.872 million tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [17] - Albemarle's 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% lithium spodumene concentrate was sold at a price of RMB 7,058 per ton [18] - Imerys is in exclusive negotiations to sell a minority stake in its lithium mine project in central France and is confident of completing the transaction by the end of January [18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rise - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased, with the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rising from $881 per ton to $944 per ton, a 7.2% increase [14] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Position Reduction and Price Decline due to News Disturbance - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend with increasing positions last week, but there was a significant position reduction of 22,000 lots on Friday, accompanied by a 3.14% decline, with a weekly increase of 1.6% [2][14] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Remain Strong - The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes increased slightly, and the prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide showed an upward or stable trend [15][14] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50% in September, indicating strong terminal demand [41]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry has been experiencing a continuous destocking trend for eight weeks since August, driven by stronger demand growth compared to supply [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate reached 316,000 tons, an increase of 9% month-on-month; battery production was 160 GWh, up 11%; and energy storage battery production was 50 GWh, up 13% [1]. - Cumulatively, demand data from January to August showed a year-on-year growth rate higher than the same period last year [1]. - The traditional peak demand season in September and October is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with demand growth exceeding market expectations [1]. Supply Side Summary - Following the suspension of the Jiangxiawo project by CATL on August 9, domestic lithium carbonate production from the mica source decreased significantly from a peak of 5,000 tons per week to 2,500 tons, but has since rebounded to 2,800 tons after the resumption of Yichun Silver Lithium [2]. - The lithium spodumene source's weekly production increased from 9,000 tons in July to 13,000 tons, compensating for the reduction from the mica source and resulting in a total weekly supply exceeding 20,000 tons, a historical high [2]. - The inventory structure in the lithium carbonate industry is improving, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream inventory increasing. Upstream smelter inventory fell from 51,000 tons to 33,000 tons (a 35% decrease), while downstream inventory rose from 48,000 tons to 61,000 tons (a 27% increase) [2]. Market Dynamics - The purchasing willingness of material manufacturers has increased due to sustained demand, with pre-holiday stocking driving procurement efforts. The inventory cycle for downstream material manufacturers has slightly increased from under 14 days to 15-16 days [3]. - As of September 26, lithium carbonate futures prices remained stable around 73,000 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.95% [3]. - Analysts suggest that while the destocking trend continues, the overall inventory reduction is limited due to the balance between demand improvement and supply increase [3]. Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after the peak season in September and October. If demand weakens, the industry may shift from destocking to restocking, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in lithium carbonate futures prices [3]. - The upcoming October may see supply disturbances as mining companies enter the certification process, which could lead to a return to a more relaxed supply outlook, putting pressure on lithium carbonate prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the trading focus in the commodity market will gradually shift back to the industry, with a greater emphasis on fundamental factors. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to decline in September after reaching a record high in August, while the demand from the terminal new - energy vehicle market and the energy storage market is increasing. As a result, the total inventory is likely to continue to decrease, and the price of the lithium carbonate main contract has room for an upward movement after stabilizing [77]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In July, China's economic data showed signs of weakness. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7% (previous value: 6.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7% (previous value: 4.8%). The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6% (previous value: 2.8%), and the year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0% (previous value: - 11.2%). The year - on - year growth rate of general infrastructure investment was 7.3% (previous value: 8.9%), and the year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2% (previous value: 7.5%). The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July was - 1.5% (previous value: - 4.3%). The Fed Chairman's stance was dovish, and the market expected an over 80% probability of an interest - rate cut in September, betting on two interest - rate cuts within the year [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - The estimated output in August was around 80,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. Although the capacity utilization rate increased due to the rising enthusiasm of external - procurement enterprises to lock in processing profits through the futures market, the output of mica decreased due to the shutdown of leading manufacturers. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7% [3]. - As of July, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,243,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.42%. The monthly operating rate was 45.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The output in July was 85,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 26% [12]. - As of August 22, the lithium carbonate output was 20,438 tons, a week - on - week increase of 345 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 47.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The output of lithium hydroxide was 4,730 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 32.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China reached 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% compared with the same period in August last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [4]. - In July, the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in six European countries was 220,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 41%, and the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the US was 144,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 13% [4]. - In July, the domestic energy storage market had a tender scale of 9.0GW/25.8GWh for energy - storage systems and EPC general contracting tenders including equipment, and there were also 1.73GWh of energy - storage DC - side orders finalized. The average price of 2 - hour energy - storage systems was 0.526 yuan/Wh, a month - on - month decrease of 17.9% [32]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 295.2 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In July, the smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a year - on - year increase of 2% and a month - on - month decrease of 13% [33]. 3.4 Inventory - As of August 28, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 590 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 43,336 tons, a decrease of 8,622 tons from the previous month; the inventory of downstream material factories was 52,800 tons, an increase of 8,920 tons from the previous month; and the inventory in other links was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 888 tons from the previous month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,957 tons, an increase of 23,412 tons from the previous month [4]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of August 28, the average industry cost was 68,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,596 yuan/ton. The price of African SC 5% was 680 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 146 US dollars/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,330 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 13,954 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5,495 yuan/ton [5]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,417 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,079 yuan, and the industry profit was 13,954 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,498 yuan. The production cost of lithium hydroxide was 69,167 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,006 yuan, and the industry profit was 8,089 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,453 yuan [60][62]. - As of August 22, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 35,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 161 yuan/ton, and the loss was 822 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [64]. 3.6 Market Price - As of August 27, the LC2511 contract closed at a price with a 14.4% increase compared with the previous month. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.3% compared with the previous month, and the basis changed from a large premium to a discount. The position of the main contract was 347,000 [8]. - The prices of various lithium - battery products showed different degrees of increase or decrease in August. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 13.14%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.59% [6]. 3.7 Import and Export - In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate in China was 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. The import volume from Chile was 8,584 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [19]. - In July 2025, the import volume of spodumene in China was 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The import volume from Australia was 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.2% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [22]. 3.8 Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy after a sufficient correction, with a reference range of [75,000, 90,000] [78]. - Hedging strategy: In the long - term, the market is still in an oversupply situation. Production enterprises can conduct hedging on the futures market when the price rebounds according to their own profit levels [78]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [78].