Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic policies aim to strengthen the domestic market, with China's August CPI, core CPI, and PPI showing specific trends, and US inflation unexpectedly falling. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports and processing fees are rising, along with increased smelter profits and supply growth. Import losses are widening, reducing imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off - season, with stable and rising processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are at a low level, downstream purchases on - demand, domestic social inventories are increasing, and overseas LME inventories are decreasing, supporting zinc prices. Technically, with decreasing positions and price fluctuations, it's recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,887.5 dollars/ton, up 20.5 dollars. The total Shanghai Zinc open interest is 222,719 lots, up 970 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 6,229 lots, up 3,619 lots. Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 44,925 tons, up 596 tons. The SHFE inventory is 87,032 tons, up 1,052 tons; the LME inventory is 50,825 tons, down 200 tons [3]. Spot Market - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 zinc spot price is 22,180 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The ZN main contract basis is - 70 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 23.01 dollars/ton, up 5.39 dollars. The Kunming 50% zinc concentrate arrival price is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Shanghai 85% - 86% broken zinc price is 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. Zinc social inventories are 140,100 tons, up 1,800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; sales are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. Automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 13.01%, down 0.03%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 6.16%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 13.02%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 11.12%, down 0.04% [3]. Industry News - China aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, implement active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promote various aspects of development. China's August CPI, core CPI, and PPI show specific trends, and US inflation unexpectedly falls [3].

下一步财政政策还将如何发力？报告明确，将用好用足更加积极的财政政策。 "压实预算执行责任链条，将加快预算执行进度、提高资金使用效益和保障资金安全有机结合起来，推 动资金和政策尽快落地见效。"蓝佛安说，继续实施好提振消费专项行动，落实落细个人消费贷款和服 务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，激发养老、托育等服务消费潜力。积极发挥专项债券、超长期特别国债等 作用，加强财政与金融协同配合，将更多公共服务纳入投资支持范围，积极鼓励民间投资发展。 新华社消息，受国务院委托，财政部部长蓝佛安10日向十四届全国人大常委会第十七次会议报告了今年 以来预算执行情况。根据报告，今年以来，财政政策更加积极、接续发力，预算执行和财政运行总体平 稳。 财政收入方面，报告显示，今年1至7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%。财政支 出方面，各级财政部门加强预算执行，保持必要支出强度，重点领域支出得到较好保障；1至7月，全国 一般公共预算支出160737亿元，同比增长3.4%。 在落实好去年出台的一批财政政策的基础上，今年我国实施更加积极的财政政策，持续用力、更加给 力。具体落实情况如何？ 综合运用财税政策工具，支持实施提振消 ...

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with overall budget execution and fiscal operations remaining stable [1][2] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] - During the same period, general public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [1] Key Initiatives - The government has implemented various fiscal measures to boost consumption, including personal consumption loans and subsidies for elderly care services [1][2] - The scope of subsidies has been expanded to include vehicle scrappage and replacement, as well as digital products [1] - Special long-term bonds were issued earlier than last year, totaling 761 billion yuan by the end of July, supporting key projects [1] Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to focus on technology and industrial innovation, reforming the fiscal and tax system, and enhancing risk management in key areas [2][3] - There will be an emphasis on increasing public welfare investments and promoting rural revitalization and regional coordinated development [2] - The government aims to strengthen fiscal management and discipline while ensuring the effective execution of budgets [2] Future Directions - The fiscal policy will prioritize domestic circulation and implement proactive macroeconomic policies to address uncertainties [3] - There will be a focus on stabilizing employment, foreign trade, and market expectations while enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal governance [3] - The government plans to encourage private investment and expand the scope of public services supported by investments [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with stable budget execution and overall fiscal operations [1][2]. - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, while the expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1]. - The report highlights various measures taken to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, including personal consumption loan subsidies and expanding the scope of subsidies for vehicle scrapping and appliance replacement [1][2]. Group 2 - The fiscal policy and key work areas this year focus on promoting technological and industrial innovation, deepening fiscal and tax system reforms, and enhancing social welfare [2]. - Future fiscal policies will emphasize accelerating budget execution, improving fund utilization efficiency, and ensuring fund security, while continuing to support consumption and private investment [3]. - The report outlines a commitment to strengthen domestic circulation, maintain policy continuity and stability, and enhance flexibility and foresight in macroeconomic policies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report presented by the Minister of Finance indicates that China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with overall budget execution and fiscal operations remaining stable [1][2]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [1]. - During the same period, the national general public budget expenditure was 160,737 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1]. Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The government has implemented a series of fiscal policies to support consumption, including personal consumption loans and subsidies for elderly care services [1][2]. - The scope of subsidies has been expanded to include the scrapping and updating of automobiles and the replacement of household appliances, as well as digital products like mobile phones [1]. Focus Areas of Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has concentrated on promoting technological and industrial innovation, deepening tax and fiscal reforms, and enhancing social welfare [2]. - There is a strong emphasis on rural revitalization, regional coordinated development, and ecological civilization construction [2]. Future Fiscal Policy Directions - The report outlines plans to accelerate budget execution, improve fund utilization efficiency, and ensure fund security [3]. - Future efforts will focus on stabilizing employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, and enhancing fiscal governance [3]. - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation and maintain policy continuity and stability while being flexible and anticipatory in response to uncertainties [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights the implementation of various policies and measures deployed by the central government to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [1] - It emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [1] - The report calls for a thorough evaluation of policy implementation and suggests optimizing policies and measures based on assessment results to enhance their effectiveness [1] Group 2 - There is a focus on normalizing policy research and reserve, continuously improving the policy toolbox [1] - The report stresses the importance of addressing capacity governance in key industries and implementing measures to resolve structural contradictions while promoting quality upgrades [1] - It also mentions the need for comprehensive regulation of irrational competition and strengthening policy coordination and expectation guidance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report presented by the Minister of Finance, Lan Fo'an, indicates that the fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with overall stable budget execution and fiscal operations [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Budget Execution - The fiscal policy has been more active and has continued to exert influence throughout the year [1] - The execution of the budget and fiscal operations have remained generally stable [1] Group 2: Future Fiscal Focus - The next steps for fiscal policy include effectively utilizing a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment stability and foreign trade [1] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new development momentum [1] - The government aims to further ensure and improve people's livelihoods while continuously working to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas [1] - There is a commitment to enhancing the effectiveness and level of fiscal governance while strictly adhering to the requirement of living within means [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report presented by the Minister of Finance highlights a more proactive fiscal policy in response to the current economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of budget execution and overall fiscal stability [1] Fiscal Policy and Budget Execution - The fiscal policy has become more proactive and is continuously being implemented to support economic stability [1] - The report indicates that budget execution and fiscal operations have remained generally stable throughout the year [1] Key Focus Areas for Future Fiscal Work - The government aims to effectively utilize a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment stability and foreign trade [1] - There is a commitment to accelerate the cultivation and expansion of new development drivers [1] - The report emphasizes the need to further ensure and improve people's livelihoods [1] - Continuous efforts will be made to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas [1] - There is a focus on enhancing the effectiveness and level of fiscal governance [1] - Strict adherence to the requirement of living within means is highlighted [1]

Group 1 - National general public budget revenue for the first seven months reached 1,358.39 billion yuan, marking a 0.1% increase, the first positive growth this year [1] - The increase in fiscal revenue is supported by stable economic performance, with a recovery from a 1.6% decline at the beginning of the year [1] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment have shown effectiveness, with notable growth in cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors [1] Group 2 - Positive interaction between fiscal revenue and macroeconomic policies is evident, particularly in sectors like equipment manufacturing and modern services [2] - Tax revenue from industries such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and cultural services has maintained a high growth rate, supported by fiscal spending on "two new" policies [2] - The reliance on non-tax revenue is decreasing, indicating an improvement in the structure of fiscal revenue [2] Group 3 - Continued efforts are needed to maintain a positive cycle between fiscal policy and economic growth, with a focus on consumer spending and technological innovation [3] - The "three guarantees" (basic livelihood, wages, and operational stability) must be prioritized to ensure social stability and economic order [3] - Central government has increased transfer payments to local governments to support fiscal capacity, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and addressing fiscal risks [3] Group 4 - To sustain the recovery of fiscal revenue, it is essential to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, while implementing proactive fiscal policies [4]

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-26 美联储转鸽，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-25，央行以 ...