Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance is conducting the first re-issuance of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds, with a total face value of 35 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 2.10% [1] - In July, three issues of ultra-long special government bonds were completed, totaling 206 billion yuan, making it the second-largest monthly issuance this year [1] - The overall issuance plan for ultra-long special government bonds this year is 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, with 796 billion yuan issued by August 1, achieving 61% of the target [1] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated a total of 800 billion yuan for "two major" construction projects this year, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment already distributed [2] - The accelerated issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is expected to support economic development by boosting infrastructure investment and enhancing consumer demand [2][3] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is seen as a catalyst for long-term growth, acting as both a stabilizer for economic performance and a promoter of structural upgrades in consumption [3]

1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's work style to contribute to the sustained improvement of the economy, highlighting the need for a proactive fiscal policy and effective implementation of various measures to support economic growth and stability [2][7][16]. Group 1: Party's Work Style and Governance - The article discusses the significance of enhancing the Party's work style as a response to increasing risks and challenges, with a focus on the implementation of the Central Eight Regulations [2][3]. - It outlines the establishment of a "tower-like" responsibility system to ensure accountability in work style construction, emphasizing the need for strict adherence to Party discipline and responsibilities [4][5]. - The article stresses the importance of continuous learning and self-examination to identify and rectify issues within the Party's work style [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The article highlights the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy since 2025, aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, with significant budget allocations [7][8]. - It mentions the issuance of special bonds and the allocation of funds to support consumption and investment, which are crucial for economic recovery [9][10]. - The article notes that the central government's budget for education and social security has seen substantial increases, reflecting a commitment to improving public welfare [11]. Group 3: Modernization and Structural Reform - The article emphasizes the need for a modernized fiscal system that aligns with China's modernization goals, including tax reforms and improved budget management [12][18]. - It discusses the importance of addressing local government debt risks while promoting high-quality development, indicating a balanced approach to fiscal management [13][14]. - The article also highlights the role of fiscal policy in enhancing domestic demand and supporting various sectors, including real estate and social services [16][17].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of utilizing more proactive fiscal policies to enhance economic stability and growth, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds [1][3] - In the first half of the year, the proactive fiscal policy and other macro policies worked in synergy, contributing to a stable and improving economic situation in China [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance has implemented measures to support consumption and investment, including the issuance of 162 billion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds to stimulate consumer spending, resulting in over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales across five major product categories [2][3] Group 2 - The issuance of local government special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, expanding the scope of investment and supporting major project construction [2] - As of June 30, the cumulative issuance of new replacement bonds was 3.8 trillion yuan, significantly reducing the average interest cost of replaced debts by over 2.5 percentage points, thereby alleviating repayment pressure and freeing up fiscal space for development and public welfare [2] - The article highlights the need for a robust policy framework to support consumption in various sectors, including elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, while also promoting the healthy development of the duty-free retail business [3][4] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance employment stability through policies such as job retention subsidies, tax reductions, and employment support, while also focusing on improving educational resources and implementing childcare subsidies [3] - The article discusses the need for reforms in the fiscal and tax system, including the establishment of a modern budget system and improvements in the fiscal transfer payment system to enhance local financial autonomy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing proactive fiscal policies to support economic recovery and high-quality development, while also addressing social welfare and employment issues [1][16]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Ministry of Finance will accelerate the issuance and utilization of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work output [1][16]. - A total of 14.1 trillion yuan was spent from the national general public budget in the first half of the year, maintaining a strong expenditure intensity [7][15]. - By the end of June, 9.29 trillion yuan in central transfers to local governments had been disbursed, with over 90% of central budget investments allocated [8][15]. Group 2: Economic Stability and Growth - The article highlights the need to support employment, stabilize enterprises, and maintain market expectations through fiscal measures [7][15]. - Domestic demand is emphasized as a strategic focus, with measures to stimulate consumption and investment, including 1,620 billion yuan in special bond funds to support consumer goods [9][15]. - The GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with domestic demand contributing 68.8% to economic growth, indicating a strong recovery [15]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Employment - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance social security, healthcare, and education funding, with education and social security expenditures each approaching 4.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and 5.9% respectively [11][15]. - Employment support policies will be strengthened, including a 667.4 billion yuan allocation for employment subsidies [11][15]. - The implementation of a childcare subsidy system and gradual promotion of free preschool education are also highlighted to meet the needs of families [17]. Group 4: Fiscal System Reform - The Ministry of Finance is committed to deepening fiscal and tax system reforms to align with modern governance needs, including optimizing tax policies and enhancing budget management [12][18]. - A zero-based budgeting reform pilot is being conducted in 16 central departments to improve financial efficiency [13][18]. - The establishment of a modern budget system and a more effective transfer payment system is also a focus to enhance local fiscal autonomy [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and improve the microeconomic cycle [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of ultra-long special bonds and local government special bonds to create tangible work volume as soon as possible [1] - There is a focus on leveraging fiscal funds to guide and stimulate economic policies, ensuring continuous release of policy effectiveness [1] Group 2: Support for Industries - The implementation of various fiscal and tax policies aimed at assisting enterprises is crucial for improving the microeconomic cycle [1] - The government will utilize special funds, tax incentives, government procurement, and investment funds to support the transformation of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the forward-looking layout of future industries [1] Group 3: Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance will guide and supervise local governments in replacing hidden debts and actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fang'an, emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and increased counter-cyclical fiscal regulation to enhance economic stability and growth [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of ultra-long-term special government bonds and local government special bonds to quickly generate tangible work output [1] - There is a focus on leveraging fiscal funds to guide and stimulate economic activities, ensuring that various policy effects are continuously released [1] Group 2: Support for Enterprises - The implementation of tax and fiscal policies aimed at assisting enterprises is crucial for effectively improving the microeconomic cycle [1] - The government will utilize special funds, tax incentives, government procurement, and investment funds to support the transformation of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the forward-looking layout of future industries [1] Group 3: Debt Management - The government will guide and supervise local authorities in managing hidden debt replacement, actively and prudently addressing local government debt risks [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of the year, national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4%, indicating a focus on supporting key areas such as social security, science and technology, education, and health care. Revenue and Expenditure - National general public budget revenue reached 1.15566 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - National general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in social security and employment (9.2%), science and technology (9.1%), education (5.9%), and health care (4.3%) [1][6] Tax Revenue Trends - National tax revenue amounted to 929 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but showed a positive trend with three consecutive months of growth since April [2] - Major tax categories saw stable growth: domestic value-added tax (2.8%), domestic consumption tax (1.7%), and individual income tax (8%) [2] Export Support - Export tax rebates totaled 127 billion yuan, an increase of 13.22 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, supporting foreign trade exports [3] Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 32.2%, 9.2%, and 6.3% respectively [3] - The scientific research and technical service industry experienced a tax revenue increase of 13.8%, while the cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors grew by 8.6% [4] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue reached 227 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate declined compared to the first quarter [5] - Revenue from state-owned resource usage increased by 4.8%, driven by local governments optimizing asset utilization [5] Local Government Revenue - Local general public budget revenue grew by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting increases [5] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, accelerating budget execution and improving fund utilization efficiency to promote economic recovery [8] - The government aims to support consumption through initiatives like trade-in programs and enhance the consumption environment in key cities [8] Special Bonds and Debt Issuance - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a 45% year-on-year increase, and the scope of projects eligible for funding has expanded [9] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 46 general bonds and 11 super long-term special bonds in the third quarter, maintaining stability in the bond market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to support economic recovery and ensure the stability of key areas such as people's livelihoods and employment [1][3]. Fiscal Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, the overall fiscal operation was stable, with national general public budget revenue at 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, narrowing the decline by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - Tax revenue reached 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, but monthly tax revenue has shown a growth trend since April [2]. Budget Execution and Support - The Ministry of Finance has accelerated budget approvals and fund disbursement to enhance policy effectiveness, with 9.29 trillion yuan in transfer payments to local governments, accounting for 89.8% of the annual budget [3]. - A total of 2.6 trillion yuan in new local government bonds was issued to support major projects, along with 658.3 billion yuan in special bonds for long-term projects [3]. Social Welfare and Employment - General public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant growth in social security (9.2%), education (5.9%), and health (4.3%) [5]. - The central government allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment subsidies, aiming to stabilize jobs and support new graduates [5]. Consumer Spending Initiatives - The government is promoting consumption through initiatives like the trade-in program for consumer goods, with 300 billion yuan allocated to support this effort [8]. - The Ministry of Finance has pre-allocated 162 billion yuan in special long-term bond funds for this program, with additional funds to be distributed in October [8]. Future Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing proactive fiscal policies, enhancing budget execution, and increasing the effectiveness of fund usage to support ongoing economic recovery [4][9].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure reached 141,271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Central government expenditure was 19,914 billion yuan, growing by 9% year-on-year, while local government expenditure was 121,357 billion yuan, increasing by 2.6% [1] - Key areas of expenditure included education (21,483 billion yuan, +5.9%), science and technology (4,790 billion yuan, +9.1%), social security and employment (24,504 billion yuan, +9.2%), health (11,004 billion yuan, +4.3%), and environmental protection (2,556 billion yuan, +5.9%) [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1] - Central government revenue was 48,589 billion yuan, down 2.8%, while local government revenue was 66,977 billion yuan, up 1.6% [1] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized a stable overall fiscal operation, with tax revenue gradually recovering and most regions experiencing revenue growth [1] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance's Social Security Department outlined five key areas of work in employment, pension, and healthcare [2] - Employment support included 667.4 billion yuan in employment subsidies from the central government [2] - The central government increased funding for basic pension insurance and ensured timely payments for over 300 million elderly citizens [2] - Medical security services were enhanced with 5,522 billion yuan allocated for related subsidies [2] - Support for vulnerable populations included 1,566.8 billion yuan in assistance for those in need [2]