Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - FOMC resolution is moderate, still emphasizing economic uncertainty. The federal funds rate remains unchanged as expected. There is a certain degree of divergence in views within the Fed, and the market price reaction is relatively small after the resolution is issued [4]. - The press - conference speech is hawkish, strengthening the view of not setting a rate - cut path. Powell indicates that it's inappropriate to use the previous rate - cut path prediction, and the market starts to price in no rate cut in September [4]. - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bear - flattening trend, and the US dollar may strengthen. In the medium - to - long term, factors may cause the US dollar index to decline, and the downward direction of bond yields in China remains unchanged [4]. Summary by Directory 1. What to focus on in the Fed's interest - rate meeting? 1.1 FOMC resolution is moderate, still emphasizing economic uncertainty - The description of economic growth in the fundamental assessment is adjusted to indicate that the Fed defines the US GDP growth in H1 2025 as a slowdown [7]. - The description in the risk assessment shows that the Fed believes the economic outlook is not clearer and needs more data for the next step [7]. - Two Fed governors oppose the resolution, indicating differences within the Fed on inflation expectations and policy goals [7]. - The market has a relatively mild immediate reaction after the resolution is released [10]. 1.2 The press - conference speech is hawkish, strengthening the view of not setting a rate - cut path - Powell believes it's inappropriate to use the previous rate - cut path prediction [13]. - He thinks the inflation transmission path of tariffs is not clear, and the impact on consumption terminals needs more information [14]. - He believes the labor market is roughly balanced and consistent with maximum employment [14]. - The market starts to price in no rate cut in September after his speech [15]. 2. How to view the market? - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bear - flattening trend, with the two - year US Treasury rate expected to fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.2% and the 10 - year US Treasury rate between 4.25% - 4.65% [18]. - In the short term, the US dollar index may maintain strength and rise above 100 due to tariff negotiation details and expected strong yields of US dollar assets [18]. - In the medium - to - long term, factors may cause the US dollar index to decline, and the downward direction of bond yields in China is determined by domestic economic and policy rhythms [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where he expressed a strong desire for interest rate cuts, indicating a potential influence on future monetary policy decisions [1][2]. - Trump's visit comes just before a crucial two-day interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50% [2]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, reported at 97.57 with a rise of 0.09%, indicating a potential recovery from previous declines [1]. Group 2 - Trump's comments during the visit suggest a continued push for lower borrowing costs to stimulate economic growth, which he believes will benefit American businesses and consumers [2]. - Despite his previous criticisms of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Trump's tone during this visit appeared more conciliatory, opting for public appeals rather than direct pressure [2]. - The technical analysis of the dollar index indicates a fragile recovery, with key resistance levels at 98.400 and support at 96.377, suggesting that the index's future movements will be closely watched [3].

Group 1 - The global financial market is set to experience significant events this week, including earnings reports from major companies, key housing data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may disrupt the current market calm and create new volatility opportunities for forex traders [1] - U.S. stock futures showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones futures down by 16 points, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also slightly lower, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has slightly decreased to 4.42%, while the dollar remains stable against major currencies, reflecting market reactions to Japan's recent upper house election results [1][5] Group 2 - If Asian market interest rates continue to rise, it may attract some capital back, potentially weakening demand for dollar-denominated assets, which could impact the medium-term outlook for the dollar index [6] - In the commodities market, gold prices have dropped to $3,353.60 per ounce, while U.S. and Brent crude oil prices have slightly increased to $67.48 and $69.41 per barrel, respectively, indicating mixed sentiments regarding economic prospects [6] - The upcoming earnings season will feature major tech companies, including Tesla and Alphabet, with expectations that better-than-expected results could boost market risk appetite and influence currency pair movements [6] - Key U.S. housing data will be released midweek, which may affect market perceptions of U.S. economic growth amid signs of a cooling real estate market [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and another official will speak on Tuesday, and the market will look for clues regarding the future interest rate path, which could inform trading strategies based on potential dollar movements [6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with various economic indicators showing a contraction trend compared to the previous two years [1][4] - The OECD has revised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6%, and further down to 1.5% for 2026 [1] - The IMF has also lowered its 2025 growth expectation by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% [1] Labor Market Analysis - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3% [5] - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, there are signs of weakness, particularly in the private sector, where job growth is sluggish [5] - The labor market is under pressure from overall economic slowdown and structural adjustments within industries [5] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest level since February [1] - Tariff policies theoretically increase prices, but their actual impact is mitigated by falling global energy prices and limited implementation of tariffs [2][6] - Energy prices have decreased significantly, with crude oil dropping from around $80 per barrel to approximately $65, contributing to lower inflation [6] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts, with a probability exceeding 90% for the September meeting [8] - Current economic conditions, including declining inflation indicators and global economic slowdown, suggest that maintaining the current federal funds rate of 4.25%-4.5% is inappropriate [8] Currency Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index is under pressure due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and a slowdown in global trade growth [9] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is close to 60%, and its role in global trade settlements is about 50%, indicating a significant impact from trade tensions [9] - Despite some supportive factors for the dollar, such as stable capital inflows, the prevailing negative factors are expected to dominate in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The international spot gold price opened at $3289.05, reached a high of $3403.14, and closed at $3308.83, with an increase of $20.14 or 0.61% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 99.42 points, closed at 99.19 points, and decreased by 0.23% [3] - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6281.00 points, closed at 6592.81 points, with an increase of 4.98% [3] Group 2 - Silver price increased by 8.93% and closed at $35.91 [4] - Platinum price rose by 10.68% and closed at $1170.60 [5] - Palladium price increased by 7.64% and closed at $1046.25 [5] Group 3 - NYMEX crude oil price rose by 6.55% and closed at $64.77 [7] - The Dow Jones index increased by 1.17% and closed at 42762.87 points [7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.50% and closed at 5802.82 points [7] Group 4 - The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.9, indicating a slight recession [12][14] - The US non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 13.9 million, but previous months' data were revised down significantly [16][17] - The US unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating a potential upward trend in unemployment [20] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, but the monthly net purchase decreased to 1.86621 tons [31][33] - The average hourly wage in the US was $31.16, with a year-on-year increase of 4.01%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [22][24]

Group 1 - As of April 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $328.17 billion, an increase of $41 billion from March, representing a growth rate of 1.27% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to currency revaluation and asset price changes, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY) falling by 4.6% to 99.5 in April, leading to appreciation of non-U.S. currencies [2] - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory bodies, has introduced a series of financial policies to support market stability, which is expected to contribute to a balanced international payment and stable foreign exchange reserves [3] Group 2 - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April, with a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces [4] - The current gold reserves amount to $243.6 billion, accounting for 7.4% of the foreign exchange reserves, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points [4] - The diversification of international reserve assets is progressing steadily, as indicated by the record high proportion of gold reserves [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices opened slightly higher at $3437.82 due to the escalation of the India-Pakistan situation but quickly retreated, experiencing a drop of $60 [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is causing short-term profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar index, which adds pressure to gold prices [1][3] - Despite the current pullback, it is viewed as a good opportunity to enter bullish positions on gold, as the overall outlook remains positive for further gains [1][4] Group 2 - The US dollar index is currently in a state of fluctuation, with bearish sentiment prevailing as it operates below the 200-day moving average [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, which could keep borrowing costs high and negatively impact the economy [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and their impact on inflation and the economy may lead to a lack of clarity in the Fed's stance, which could create short-term pressure on gold prices but ultimately supports a bullish outlook [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility influenced by both fundamental and technical factors, with short-term pressures from reduced risk aversion and potential support levels being tested [3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have significantly dropped, currently around $3277.84 per ounce, with a decline of nearly $100 during the day [1]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3282 and $3167, with a potential further decline to around $3100 if these levels are breached [3]. - The market is in a consolidation phase after a rapid increase, with short-term downward pressure but long-term support from safe-haven demand and fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The highest price for gold today was $3386, while the lowest was $3260, indicating a drop of 126 points [3]. - The daily chart suggests a potential closing below the opening price of $3320, with a focus on whether the lower shadow can extend further down [5]. - Key resistance levels are at $3315 and $3340, with a recommendation to consider short positions around $3310, while support is noted at $3228 to $3245 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with current trading around $3022.92 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1]. Market Analysis - Last Friday, gold prices fell by 0.7% due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking, briefly touching the $3000 mark. However, geopolitical and economic uncertainties persist, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which supports buying on dips and safe-haven demand. The closing price was approximately $3023.04 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 1.17%, the third consecutive week of gains [3]. - Short-term gold price movements will depend on risk sentiment and economic data performance. A weak global PMI reading could boost safe-haven demand, while confirmation of a 2.7% annual inflation rate in the upcoming PCE data could raise hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, potentially lowering gold prices to $2980. Conversely, escalating geopolitical conflicts may push gold prices to retest $3050 [3]. - The ongoing expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, combined with global trade tensions and geopolitical risks, suggests that gold prices may maintain an upward trend. Key variables influencing gold prices include the dollar index and Federal Reserve officials' statements. If gold can reclaim the $3050 level, it may challenge the historical high of $3057.28, with a potential target of $3100 if a breakout occurs [3]. Technical Analysis - Last week, gold reached a high of $3057 and a low of $2999, ultimately closing near $3022, indicating a bullish signal. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate between $3028 and $3010. Following a volatile trading session last Friday, Monday's focus will be on price correction, with a potential decline towards $2986-$2980. A break below $2980 could lead to further declines to $2942 and then $2920. Resistance levels are noted at $3038, $3046, and $3057 [5]. - On an hourly chart, the recent downtrend shows lower highs and lower lows. The first half of the week will focus on the strength of any rebound, determining whether the recent decline is due to profit-taking or a market peak. A bearish strategy is suggested, with key support at the $3000 level and previous high at $2954. Resistance levels to watch include $3038, $3046, and $3057 [5].