美元走软，因市场重新押注美联储降息，当前市场对12月降息的概率定价从375-400个基点降至350-375个基点，概率达89.4%。 降息预期→暂停降息→再转为降息预期的转变，叠加经济数据转冷及美元需求下降，共同削弱美元走势。 技术层面，美元指数仍处于主要日线需求区间内，难以重返99.80-100.00关口，若失守支撑位则存在下探98.80的风险。 ICMarkets解析美元走势：疲软数据与政策转向施压DXY 随着经济指标持续指向美国经济放缓，美元承压态势延续。制造业活动再度萎缩，订单疲软及多行业动能减弱，令美元承压加剧。基本面恶化加速了市场对 美联储12月会议预期的转变。 投资者正重新定价政策宽松周期启动时间，较数周前预期提前。美国国债收益率自近期高位回落，美元相对于其他主要货币的收益率优势已然削弱。受此影 响，美元指数难以维持上行动能，转而在更宽日线需求区域内进入震荡整理阶段。 美联储预期转向：从降息、暂停再到降息 美元当前疲软的核心驱动力，在于市场对美联储下次决议预期的急剧转变。 2025年第四季度初：市场预期降息 通胀放缓与就业数据降温促使市场提前定价政策宽松，美元在10月持续走弱。 11月中旬：暂停 ...

周五（11月21日）亚洲时段，美元指数小幅回撤走低，仍企稳100关口上方，今日美元指数最新报 100.153，跌幅0.07%，受美国9月就业数据强劲影响，美联储12月降息的可能性减小。 周四，由于喜忧参半的非农就业数据未打消市场对美联储12月降息的质疑，美元指数维持在100关口上 方高位震荡，盘中触及6个月高位，最终收涨0.105%，报100.23；美债收益率有所回落，基准的10年期 美债收益最终收报4.088%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.545%。 美元兑多数主要货币周四延续涨势，美元指数上涨0.1%至100.18，测试11月初创下的六个月高位。市场 对美国9月就业增长强劲的迹象作出反应，这进一步削弱了美联储12月降息的可能性。 推迟发布的美国9月非农就业报告显示，就业岗位增加11.9万个，远超预期的5万个增幅，但失业率从 4.3%升至4.4%。Mesirow Currency Management高级投资策略师Uto Shinohara指出："高于预期的就业数 据让美联储减少了降息理由，但市场仍处于数据真空状态。" 美元指数技术分析 从技术上来看，美元指数周四上涨在100.35之下遇阻 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a temporary boost in the dollar index, but concerns over potential economic slowdown and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are limiting the dollar's rebound [1][2] - The signing of the funding bill by Trump, which ended the longest government shutdown in history, initially pushed the dollar higher, but the market remains cautious due to rising rate cut expectations [1] - Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has increased to 64%, reflecting a 5 percentage point rise from the previous day, indicating a growing consensus on the need for preventive rate cuts due to economic impacts from the shutdown [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis of the dollar index shows that after a period of decline, it found support around 99.40 and has established a short-term rebound structure, but momentum has weakened near resistance levels [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 52, indicating a neutral to strong condition, but the rebound momentum remains moderate and has not yet entered a strong territory [2] - The dollar index is currently in a "short-term bullish support, medium-term bearish pressure" scenario, with future movements expected to be influenced by U.S. CPI data and comments from Federal Reserve officials [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar signals a stable expectation in the currency market, with the RMB middle rate reaching its highest level since October 15, 2024, at 7.0881 on October 27, 2025 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB middle rate has shown a continuous upward trend, supported by a favorable external environment and strong domestic economic performance [1][2] - As of October 27, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1083 against the US dollar, reflecting an increase of over 100 points, and stabilized around 7.11 [1] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 97.6, marking a 0.5% weekly increase, the highest level since April 2025 [2] Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index has decreased by 8.82% year-to-date, despite a recent slight rebound, primarily due to the weakness of non-US currencies like the Japanese yen [2][3] - Analysts expect the US dollar to maintain a weak trend in the long term due to anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over the US fiscal outlook [2][3] Group 3: Domestic Economic Support - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to provide a supportive role for the RMB exchange rate, with a high sensitivity to growth-promoting policies [3] - The People's Bank of China has sufficient policy tools to stabilize the exchange rate, indicating a flexible adjustment approach to mitigate unilateral market expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the oil market, highlighting a bullish trend in Brent crude oil prices and its potential implications for currency values, particularly the euro and yen [1]. Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have increased by over $2 per barrel this week, reaching a peak of $68.42, matching the high from September 18 [1]. - Technical indicators suggest that oil prices have broken through the 100-day and 55-day moving averages, signaling a bullish breakout [1]. - If oil prices surpass the September 16 high of $68.69, they may further rise towards the September peak of $69.53 [1]. - A closing price above the cloud bottom at $67.72 could lead to a move towards the cloud top at $73.21 [1]. Currency Impact - The rise in oil prices is expected to impact speculators betting on the appreciation of the euro and yen, potentially weakening these currencies [1]. - The strengthening of oil prices may exert pressure on short positions in related currencies [1]. Dollar Index Overview - The current dollar index is at 97.78, with a slight decline of 0.09% from an opening price of 97.86 [1]. - The dollar index is positioned below the Bollinger middle band at 97.7747, indicating a weak consolidation phase [1]. - Recent price action shows a long lower shadow indicating buying interest at lower levels, but upward resistance remains present [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both external and internal factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve and a strong domestic capital market [1][2]. External Factors - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy has opened up space for RMB appreciation, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar index [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has encouraged export companies to accelerate their currency conversion, contributing to the RMB's strength [2]. Internal Factors - The recent recovery of the domestic capital market, particularly the A-share market, has increased risk appetite and led to a rise in cross-border capital inflows into RMB assets [2]. - China's stable economic growth and favorable foreign trade conditions, along with a high trade surplus, have improved market sentiment and reduced concerns over trade tensions [2]. Short-term Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue fluctuating within a range, supported by stable domestic economic performance and increased currency conversion by enterprises [3]. - A slight adjustment in the RMB exchange rate was observed following a significant rise, influenced by technical corrections and a minor rebound in the US dollar index [2]. Long-term Outlook - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a strong position in the short term, with potential for appreciation, while the long-term outlook remains stable due to the Federal Reserve's policies and domestic economic stability [3]. - The risks of significant appreciation or depreciation of the RMB are considered low, with ample policy space for counter-cyclical adjustments to ensure economic stability [3].

Group 1 - President Trump has called for the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged false statements in mortgage documents [2] - Cook claimed her properties in Michigan and Georgia were her primary residences, which Trump views as deceptive [2] - Cook has stated she will not resign and will continue her duties to support the U.S. economy, as she has done since 2022 [2] Group 2 - Fed Chair Powell's stance has shifted, indicating a potential adjustment in policy, which may reflect pressure from Trump [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, suggesting a loss of independence under White House influence [3] Group 3 - Following Powell's remarks, the U.S. dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, initially dropping but then rebounding [5] - The rebound in the dollar index may not indicate a reversal of the Fed's rate cut expectations, as the overall trend remains bearish since August [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, supported by recent inflation and employment data [1][4][5] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with overall inflation rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been unexpectedly mild, with energy prices down 1.1% and food prices stable, indicating that businesses are absorbing most of the additional costs associated with tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with potential downward revisions to employment data, which may pressure the Federal Reserve's stance [6][8] - The dollar index has resumed its downward trend, indicating potential weakness for the dollar unless other major central banks act more quickly to ease policies [8][9] - The U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by strong earnings recovery, particularly in the technology sector, which has outperformed other sectors [11][12] Group 3 - The Nasdaq index is approaching the 24,000-point mark, with potential for further gains if it can maintain levels above 24,100 points [12] - The overall market rebound is concentrated among a few leading companies, with the S&P 500 index showing that only a small percentage of companies have reached new highs [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are expected to strengthen due to rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar, with a confirmed rate cut in September [1][3] - Gold prices have shown resilience, supported by the 60-day moving average and market sentiment, suggesting a potential upward movement towards resistance levels around $3440 and possibly reaching historical highs of $3570 if broken [1][3] - The US dollar index is under pressure, having fallen below recent upward trend support, which is likely to continue benefiting gold prices in the short term [3] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on upcoming economic data, including initial jobless claims and PPI figures, which are expected to influence gold prices; however, the impact of rising inflation on rate cut expectations is anticipated to be limited [3] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with indications of a potential rebound or adjustment phase, supported by recent price movements above key moving averages [3]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has risen slightly to $3303 per ounce before the non-farm payroll report [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a short-term increase of nearly 10 points, reaching 100.23 [1] Group 2 - The movements in spot gold and the US Dollar Index indicate market reactions ahead of significant economic data releases [2]