美元贬值

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美元疲软加剧通胀担忧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 16:15
Apollo分析师Torsten Slok,美国通胀的上行压力不仅来自关税和移民限制,还来自持续的美元贬值。他 说,美元今年已经贬值了近10%,美联储的美国经济模型发现,10%的贬值导致通胀率上升0.3%。(格 隆汇) ...
国际金价连涨6周 分析称亚洲市场有望吸引更多资金
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 14:49
来源:@央视财经微博 【#国际金价连涨6周# 分析称#亚洲市场有望吸引更多资金#】29日,伦敦现货黄金价格首次突破每盎司 3800美元的关口,再创历史高位,纽约黄金期价也刷新盘中历史新高,国际金价已连涨6周。金价飙升 背后,国际资本悄然转向多元布局。从黄金到数字资产,从大宗商品到新兴市场,一场全球资产配置的 深层次调整正在悄然展开。最新报告显示,上周数字资产投资产品流入19亿美元,连续两周正流入,总 管理资产规模上升至年内新高,达到404亿美元。有统计显示,今年以来,新兴市场债券基金累计净流 入已达450亿美元。业内人士称,在美联储降息与美元贬值背景下,亚洲市场有望吸引更多资金流入。 ...
92号汽油逼近7.2元,新一轮调价在即,车主该何时加油?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 19:37
"怕": 美联储近期降息的举措,使得美元汇率走软。在以美元计价的原油市场中,美元贬值意味着以 其他货币购买原油的成本相对降低,从而吸引了大量投机资金涌入,进一步推高了油价。此外,美国公 布的8月份PCE数据也增强了市场对美联储将继续降息的预期,经济回暖的信号一旦显现,对能源需求 的看好便成为必然。 油价又要"任性"飙升?92号汽油逼近7.2元/升,加满一箱油得多掏10块! 您上一次给爱车"喂饱"是何时?若是在上周,那您可算是搭上了油价调整前的"末班车"。本周再去加 油,恐怕就得按新的"天价"标准来衡量了。时间来到2025年9月27日,一个本应属于休息的周六,然而 加油站的计价器却丝毫没有停歇的迹象。最新消息显示,新一轮油价调整已进入第三个工作日,每吨汽 柴油价格预计将上调120元。这意味着,92号、95号汽油每升的价格将上涨一毛一。对于拥有一辆油箱 容积为50升的车辆的车主而言,加满一箱油将额外支出5.5元;若是60升的油箱,则需多掏6.6元。这点 涨幅看似微不足道,但请注意,这仅仅是本轮油价调整的开端! 下半年"首波猛涨"或将来临,油价"疯狂"背后有何隐情? 纵观今年,截至9月,国内油价已历经19次调整,其 ...
洪灏:美元是今年表现最差的主要货币,还要贬值
Feng Huang Wang Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 04:04
Group 1 - The forum "Phoenix Bay Area Financial Forum 2025" was held in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme "New Pattern, New Path" and gathering global political, business, and academic elites to explore development opportunities [1] - Hong Hao, managing partner of Lianhua Asset Management, expressed the view that a bull market is genuinely on the horizon, stating that "every decade China experiences an epic bull market" [1] - Hong Hao highlighted that the US dollar is the worst-performing major currency this year, indicating a long-term depreciation trend despite a slight rebound [1] Group 2 - The slight appreciation of the Chinese yuan this year is seen as a positive surprise, contrasting with previous years of depreciation that led to capital flowing into the US market [1] - The decline of the US dollar and the appreciation of the yuan have resulted in a better performance of the Chinese stock market, which is now leading globally [1] - There is an ongoing trend of capital returning to the Chinese market, and the upward trend in Chinese asset prices is expected to continue [1]
铜周报:铜价延续上涨趋势-20250928
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 02:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia declared force majeure due to a mudslide accident, and the 2026 production target was lowered, increasing the expectation of a global copper mine supply shortage [4]. - The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has pushed down the US dollar, and the continuously low global visible inventory has intensified the market's panic - buying sentiment [4]. - Downstream buyers are highly reluctant to buy at high prices. Orders from the home appliance and photovoltaic sectors are weak. The operating rate of copper strip production is only 65.87%, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment is less than expected [4]. - The opening of the import window has led to an increase in domestic social inventory. Policy adjustments for recycled copper have increased smelting cost pressure, and the demand side has insufficient purchasing power [4]. - The mining accident has driven the strong breakthrough of Shanghai copper futures. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, supporting the price to run strongly. However, one should be wary of the suppression of demand by high prices and the risk of inventory accumulation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 82,470 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.2%. The position is 229,050, and the weekly increase in position is 112,498. The trading volume is 174,625 [6]. - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index - weighted is 82,451 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. The position is 546,016, and the weekly increase in position is 66,985. The trading volume is 314,453 [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 73,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.36%. The position is 2,621, and the weekly decrease in position is 1,877. The trading volume is 5,553 [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is $10,275.5/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.31%. The position is 239,014, and the weekly decrease in position is 38,282. The trading volume is 42,366 [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is $478.85/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.1%. The position is 131,374, and the weekly increase in position is 7,842. The trading volume is 65,306 [6]. 3.2 Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper is 82,485 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,495 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.12% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 82,510 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,540 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 82,590 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,560 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.2% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 82,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 3.18% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 75 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 107.14% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium/discount is - 10 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 60 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 120% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 15 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 55 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 137.5% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 50 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 40% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is - $31.55/ton, with a weekly increase of $39.54 and a weekly decrease rate of 55.62% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is - $39.98/ton, with a weekly increase of $120.3 and a weekly decrease rate of 75.06% [11]. 3.3 Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 675.54 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 679.42 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 17,510.82% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - $40.65/ton, with a weekly increase of $0.75 and a weekly decrease rate of 1.81% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 3.9841, with a weekly increase of 0.1516 and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,010.53 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,258.4 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 71.82% [12]. 3.4 Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 26,557 tons, with a weekly decrease of 5,281 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 16.59% [17]. - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 8,373 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,878 tons and a weekly increase rate of 28.91% [17]. - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 98,779 tons, with a weekly decrease of 7,035 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 6.65% [17]. - The LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 133,025 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,400 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.77% [17]. - The LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 11,400 tons, with a weekly decrease of 2,050 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 15.24% [20]. - The LME Copper inventory is 144,425 tons, with a weekly decrease of 4,450 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 2.99% [20]. - The COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 148,567 tons, with a weekly decrease of 942 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 0.63% [20]. - The COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 172,489 tons, with a weekly increase of 6,792 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.1% [20]. - The COMEX Copper inventory is 321,056 tons, with a weekly increase of 5,850 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.86% [20]. - The copper mine port inventory is 58.3 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.9 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.57% [20]. - The social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [20]. 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The cumulative output was 9.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [23]. - In August 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative output was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [23]. 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 63.02%, with a monthly increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.11%. The total annual capacity is 15.84 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 24.81%, with a monthly decrease of 1.92% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 8.19 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.72%, with a monthly decrease of 1.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.98%. The total annual capacity is 3.59 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 49.86%, with a monthly decrease of 0.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. The total annual capacity is 2.2865 million tons [25]. - In August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 62.55%, with a monthly decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. The total annual capacity is 2.783 million tons [25]. 3.7 Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrates was 2.759295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import volume was 20.07674 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 61,712 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. The cumulative import volume was 528,637 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 263,049 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,206,092 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 179,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative import volume was 1,514,842 tons, with no year - on - year change [29]. - In August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative import volume was 3,540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% [29].
美联储降息叠加美元贬值 美元理财收益缩水
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 16:46
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, which signals the end of the high-interest rate cycle for the dollar and a downward trend in dollar asset yields [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Rate Cut - The recent rate cut is seen as a confirmation of the turning point for dollar asset yields, ending a nine-month period of stable policy [4]. - Foreign banks, such as HSBC and DBS, have quickly responded by lowering dollar deposit rates following the Fed's announcement [4]. - Domestic banks have not yet adjusted their rates, but there is an expectation of potential future declines [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Experiences - Many investors have shared experiences of losses from dollar-denominated financial products due to declining exchange rates, despite initially attractive interest rates [2][3]. - The average annualized yield for dollar financial products has dropped significantly from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September [2][5]. - Investors are increasingly questioning whether investing in dollar financial products is more about earning interest or speculating on exchange rates [3]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The decline in dollar asset yields is attributed to both the Fed's rate cuts and the depreciation of the dollar, which has seen a nearly 10% drop in the dollar index this year [2][7]. - Analysts highlight three main risks associated with dollar financial products: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk [7]. - Future expectations regarding Fed policy and exchange rate movements remain uncertain, with differing opinions among analysts [7][8].
美联储降息叠加美元贬值,美元理财投资者亏麻了
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 12:41
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, indicating a shift in the high-interest rate environment for the dollar [1][5] - The dollar has depreciated significantly since the beginning of the year, leading to reduced interest income and principal losses for investors holding dollar-denominated financial products [1][2] - The average annualized yield of dollar financial products has declined from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September, reflecting a downward trend in dollar asset returns [2][6] Group 2 - Investors are increasingly sharing experiences of losses from dollar financial products, highlighting the risks associated with currency fluctuations and the diminishing returns from these investments [2][4] - The dollar index has dropped nearly 10% year-to-date, with the exchange rate against the yuan falling from 7.35 to 7.12, a depreciation of over 3% [2][4] - The decline in yields is particularly pronounced in fixed-income products, with expectations that yields may fall below 3.5% in the coming months [6][7] Group 3 - The recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a confirmation of a turning point for dollar asset yields, with foreign banks quickly adjusting their deposit rates in response [5][6] - Despite the decline in yields, some smaller banks still offer competitive rates, but the overall sentiment is that exchange rate fluctuations will significantly impact actual returns [6][7] - Analysts express differing views on future Federal Reserve policy, with expectations of further rate cuts and a stable dollar-to-yuan exchange rate within the 7.0-7.5 range [8]
Gold keeps hitting record highs, so how far could it climb, and what could kill the rally?
Youtube· 2025-09-24 19:46
Core Insights - Gold prices have recently reached new highs, with significant inflows into ETFs, but the potential for volatility remains a key factor that could amplify price movements [1][3][12] Gold Price Trends - Gold rallied to an all-time high of over $1,900 per ounce in 2020, followed by a three-year period of sideways movement before breaking out again [1][4] - The current breakout shows a steep trend, with gold prices up approximately 250% from the 2016 lows, but still below the 650% increase seen earlier in the century [5][6] Central Bank Influence - Central banks have been the largest buyers of gold over the past decade, with countries like China and Russia leading the trend of dollarization [6] - A pause or sell-off by central banks could pose a significant challenge to gold prices [7] Economic Factors - A weaker dollar and lower government treasury yields generally support gold prices, with current conditions indicating potential dollar weakness [7][10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are typically bullish for gold, while elevated long-term rates may lead some investors to shift from gold to bonds [8][10] Volatility and Market Dynamics - Gold volatility, represented by the GVZ index, is currently low, but an increase in volatility alongside rising gold prices could create a bullish feedback loop [9][10] - Monitoring gold flows and GVZ is essential, as extreme conditions may signal potential price pullbacks [10] Geopolitical and Inflation Factors - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, both of which can drive prices higher [8][11] - Monthly inflation reports and geopolitical developments are critical for short-term trading strategies in the gold market [11]
美元失宠,美股走强:这局能维持多久?
伍治坚证据主义· 2025-09-24 09:23
Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly favoring U.S. stocks while simultaneously hedging against dollar risk, reflecting a lack of trust in U.S. fiscal and monetary policies [2][5][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index has dropped over 10% in 2025, indicating significant depreciation for a global reserve currency [2][5] - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. stocks remain one of the most attractive assets globally, with over 80% of foreign funds entering the U.S. stock market hedging against currency risk [5][6] - This shift represents a paradigm change, as historically, investors did not pay much attention to currency risk when investing in U.S. stocks [5][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy Concerns - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, while other regions like Europe have ended their easing policies, leading to a loss of interest rate advantage for the dollar [6] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, especially with new appointments that align closely with political influences [6][8] - The combination of political influence on monetary policy and rising fiscal deficits raises doubts about the dollar's long-term stability [7][8] Group 3: Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.2% of GDP in 2024, with total federal debt nearing $36 trillion, over 30% of which will need refinancing within the next year [7] - The Treasury's reliance on rolling over debt raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, especially if monetary policy becomes politicized [7][8] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are opting for a strategy of "buying stocks while avoiding the dollar," indicating a preference for equity exposure over currency risk [6][8] - The current market dynamics suggest that while investors may benefit in the short term, the long-term viability of this strategy is questionable as the credibility of the dollar erodes [8][9]
分化明显,博弈加剧,持仓还是持币?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-24 06:07
Market Overview - The market showed increased volatility with a notable divergence between bulls and bears, experiencing a rise followed by a pullback and then another surge. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.11%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.76%. Over 4,000 stocks in the two markets saw gains, with a total trading volume of 1.41 trillion yuan [1]. Chip Industry - The chip industry chain experienced a significant rally, surging by 7.02% by midday. More than 20 stocks, including ShenGong Co., Jingyi Equipment, and Jiangfeng Electronics, hit the daily limit. Notably, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech achieved a consecutive two-day limit increase, while Huasoft Technology and Xiangrikui both saw four consecutive limit increases, and Changchuan Technology and Shengmei Shanghai reached historical highs [3]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed signs of strength, with stocks like Dalong Real Estate achieving three limit increases in four days [3]. Robotics Sector - The robotics concept stocks were partially active, with Haoneng Co. hitting the daily limit [3]. Tourism Sector - The tourism sector faced a downturn, with stocks collectively dropping by 1.4% by midday. Companies such as Yunnan Tourism and Xiyu Tourism hit the daily limit down [3]. Other Industries - Several industries, including coal, wheel motors, precious metals, electric motors, synchronous reluctance motors, molten salt energy storage, and pumped storage, experienced slight declines [3]. Box Office Performance - According to data from Maoyan Professional Edition, as of September 23, 17:08, the pre-sale box office for new films during the 2025 National Day holiday has exceeded 5 million yuan [3]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicated that as economic and market performance declines, high valuations are no longer justified, predicting further depreciation of the US dollar in the coming months [3]. Semiconductor Pricing - Samsung has significantly increased prices for its DRAM and NAND flash products, with some products seeing price hikes of up to 30% [3].