Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations for at least two cuts remaining this year, despite a potential rise in inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation and Rate Cut Dynamics - The report indicates that even with a modest month-over-month CPI increase of 0.1%, the year-over-year CPI could rise to approximately 2.9% by the end of the year, up from 2.3%-2.4% in the first half [1][4]. - The combination of rising inflation and falling interest rates is historically rare, occurring only 16% of the time since 1973 [1][8]. - The analysis suggests that using the core PCE price index may show an earlier upward trend in year-over-year inflation [6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historically, the scenario of rising inflation with falling rates has occurred only once since 1973, during the period from late 2007 to early 2008, when the Fed cut rates despite rising inflation due to signs of weakness in the housing and labor markets [8]. - In this context, the dollar typically depreciates, with an average decline of 1.6% over six months following the rate cut, and the trend of dollar weakness often continues for one to three months after the initial cut [9][11]. - The current year is projected to see the largest annual decline in the dollar since 1999, with a strong correlation to the dollar's performance in 2007 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that the worst phase of the economic fundamentals may have passed, with expectations for a recovery in the U.S. economy and increasing inflationary pressures. Policy shifts are expected to support consumer and business confidence in the second half of the year, while global markets, particularly in Europe, are anticipated to continue their recovery [2][6][17]. Economic Fundamentals - The U.S. economy has faced negative policy shocks since the beginning of the year, disrupting the recovery initiated by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts last September. Private consumption contributed 0.31 and 0.98 percentage points to GDP in Q1 and Q2, respectively, compared to an expected 1.87 percentage points in 2024 [6][9]. - Manufacturing PMI in the U.S. has been declining since February, reflecting a broader global economic slowdown due to policy headwinds [6][9]. - The article anticipates that the economic fundamentals may improve in the second half of the year, driven by fiscal stimulus and a stable labor market, which could lead to a new wage growth cycle [14][15]. Policy Environment - The article notes a shift from policy headwinds to tailwinds, with tariff uncertainties diminishing and tax cuts being implemented. This is expected to boost consumer and business confidence in the latter half of the year [2][9]. - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue approximately $1 trillion in net debt in Q3, which may tighten liquidity and suppress risk asset performance [2][20]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation in the U.S. is expected to rise as the low base effect ends and tariffs are implemented. The article predicts a noticeable acceleration in inflation trends in the second half of the year [15][20]. Global Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the weak dollar cycle is beneficial for emerging markets, particularly Hong Kong stocks. Historical trends show that improvements in fundamentals and currency appreciation positively impact risk asset performance [3][33]. - The article also discusses the potential for a global market recovery, with expectations for multiple markets to perform well rather than just the U.S. stock market [26][28]. Sector Analysis - The article expresses optimism for sectors such as manufacturing, military, energy, and infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe, which are expected to maintain high levels of activity and support resource prices like copper and aluminum [2][28]. - The financial sector is also seen as having investment value due to liquidity expansion and financial deregulation [28][40]. Currency and Asset Valuation - The anticipated depreciation of the dollar and the return of pending foreign exchange funds are expected to support the appreciation of the Chinese yuan [3][30]. - The article suggests that the weak dollar environment will favor growth-oriented stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong markets, particularly in technology and materials sectors [33][49]. Bond Market Insights - The article notes that short-term market sentiment is currently driving bond market fluctuations, with a potential for increased volatility in the bond market due to strong performance in risk assets [50][56]. - It is expected that the long-term bond yields may trend upwards due to the issuance of new debt and economic recovery, but there remains potential for a downward adjustment in yields if the Federal Reserve resumes quantitative easing [56][58].

来源：环球市场播报 美国银行周二指出，贸易战引发的全球衰退仍是市场最大的尾部风险，但8月市场紧张情绪略有缓解。 其他风险因素依然存在：债券收益率无序跃升（20%）、AI股票泡沫（14%）和美元贬值（6%）。总 体来看，尽管前两大风险的差距缩小，且投资者对政策长期保持紧缩有所准备，但地缘政治和宏观因素 仍在主导资产配置。 贸易情绪虽有所改善，但通胀和收益率令利率路径充满不确定性，这对股票、信贷和久期策略至关重 要。贸易战仍是头条风险，但通胀正迎头赶上；下一批数据公布和下月调查将揭示这一转变是否持续。 最新全球基金经理调查显示，29%的受访者将贸易战衰退列为首要威胁，较7月的38%有所下降。通胀 风险以27%的得票率紧随其后，基金经理警告粘性通胀或阻碍美联储降息，这种情境可能抑制经济增长 和风险偏好。 ...

本轮汇率变动主要由于美元快速贬值，欧元相较之下被动升值。市场人士认为，欧元对美元上涨并非因 欧洲经济基本面走强，而是由于美元资产遭大规模抛售。今年以来，欧元对美元的升值幅度已超过 10%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:张欣然】 德国《证券报》网站报道，许多经济学家认为，美元未来可能继续走弱。美国政府政策反复无常，进一 步削弱了市场对美元的信心。 新华社法兰克福6月26日电（记者刘向）欧元对美元汇率继24日突破1比1.16关口后，26日升至1比 1.171，达到2021年9月以来最高水平。 欧洲央行官网数据显示，26日欧元对美元的参考汇率为1比1.1695。 ...

来源：豆豆君的纸飞机 CNN 称斯蒂芬米兰可能是特朗普选择的美联储主席的人选。 那美国接下来的经济政策就很好判断了：美元贬值+低息。 #热点现场##海外新鲜事##美国债务突破37万亿创历史新高# @ watch D U If Miran is confirmed, he'd be in a position to be elevated as Fed chair. He'd also be taking the same route that other former Fed chairs have taken, such as Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, who led the CEA before helming America's central hank. 图果米兰获特确认,他将在机会被提拔为关联储主席。他也将走上与前美联储主 店如珍妮持哪伦和本祖南克相同的道路,这些人在执掌关医央行之前都曾领导 过经济拥可委员会。 According to Fed rules, the chair can be chosen only among current Fed. gover ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is showing clear signs of slowdown, particularly in the labor market, prompting expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][4]. Labor Market Weakness - Recent data indicates a rapid deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with potential monthly job growth plummeting from 206,000 in Q1 to just 28,000 in July [2][4]. - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, and previous months' data was revised down by 258,000, suggesting a shift from a "moderate slowdown" to a "rapid brake" in employment [4][6]. Economic Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs projects that the U.S. real GDP annual growth rate will only be 1.2% in the first half of 2025, a full percentage point below its estimated potential growth rate [6]. - Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that the potential economic activity growth has slowed below its potential this year, justifying a reduction in policy rates to neutral or lower levels [6]. Federal Reserve's Dovish Shift - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and the recent dissenting votes at the FOMC meeting indicate a strengthening of dovish sentiment within the Fed, paving the way for quicker easing policies [8]. - Goldman Sachs notes that the dual dissenting votes at the last FOMC meeting mark a significant shift in the internal dynamics of the Fed, potentially leading to earlier and faster rate cuts [8]. Interest Rate Forecasts - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2025, ultimately bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0% to 3.25% [10][13]. - Citigroup's baseline scenario predicts a reduction of the policy rate to 3%, with risks skewed towards even lower rates if economic conditions worsen [13]. Currency Implications - The Fed's policy shift contrasts sharply with other major central banks, which may weaken the dollar as the interest rate differential narrows [17]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the dollar will face downward pressure due to fundamental factors, including a high current account deficit and concerns over U.S. economic governance and data quality [17].

美国经济正显现出明确的放缓信号，尤其是在关键的劳动力市场，这使得美联储启动降息周期似乎已是箭在弦上。 最新的就业数据成为引爆市场预期的导火索。据追风交易台消息，高盛8月4日测算，美国潜在的月度就业增长已从第一季度的20.6万骤降至7月的2.8万。花旗 则在报告中指出，在就业数据大幅下修后，美联储官员可能"不再有耐心等待降息"，已经失去了采取"观望"态度的"奢侈"。 这一预期转变也受到政治因素的推动。美联储理事Adriana Kugler的辞职，以及上次会议中出现的自1993年以来首次由两位理事同时投下的反对票，都预示着 联储内部的鸽派力量可能得到加强，从而为更快的宽松政策铺平道路。 劳动力市场的疲软与更广泛的经济放缓同步发生。根据高盛的数据，2025年上半年，美国实际GDP年化增长率仅为1.2%，比其估算的潜在增长率低了整整一 个百分点。该行预计下半年经济将维持同样疲软的增长步伐。高盛指出，尽管金融条件有所放松，但由于就业增长乏力，以及关税向消费价格传导的效应尚未 完全显现，实际可支配收入和消费者支出预计将增长非常缓慢。 花旗也表达了类似观点，认为潜在经济活动增长在今年上半年已放缓至潜力以下，这为将政策利率降 ...

华尔街风云诡谲：汇率暗战与数据迷局 8月4日，剧情再次反转。旧金山联储主席戴利突然发表"鸽派"言论，暗示美联储降息时机临近，并暗示2025年的降 息幅度将远超市场预期。受此消息刺激，纳斯达克指数当天盘中剧烈震荡，涨幅一度接近2%。在美股收盘仅仅十 分钟后，特朗普便迫不及待地在社交媒体上发布消息，附上标普500指数的K线图，并宣称"美国再次富裕强大！未 来会有更多这样的日子！" 这一系列事件背后，隐藏着一场复杂的货币暗战。在美联储释放降息信号后，交易员们开始集体押注美元贬值。离 岸人民币汇率连续四天上涨，中间价升至7.1366（8月5日数据），创下10个月新高。中美十年期国债利差已从2024 年的-1.5%收窄至-0.3%，国际资本开始重新评估人民币资产的回报率。2025年一季度，中国实际使用外资同比增长 11.3%，其中47%流向高新技术制造业。 在风云变幻的全球经济棋局中，一场围绕货币主导权的暗战正在悄然上演。导火索，则是一系列令人眼花缭乱的政 策变动和数据异动。 让我们将时针拨回2025年8月初。美国劳工统计局在8月1日发布了一份令人震惊的就业报告：7月份非农就业新增仅 为7.3万人，与市场预期的11万人 ...

8月6日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1409，下调43点。 双线资本的投资组合经理Bill Campbell称，美元有望进一步大幅贬值，而新上任的美联储主席若能迅速 采取行动降低利率，这或许会成为推动美元下跌的导火索。Campbell在一次采访中表示："美元还有可 能有更多下跌的空间。" 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 机构首次定价美联储50基点降息情景 伴随最新公布的经济数据显示美国就业市场放缓，市场对货币政策路径的预期快速调整。摩根士丹利认 为，7月非农数据修正相当于将经济衰退概率提升了9个百分点。花旗则表示，只要失业率升至4.5%， 美联储便可能执行50个基点的降息操作。尽管CME数据显示，交易员当前并未充分计入一次性大幅降 息的概率，但高频经济指标正持续强化这一可能性。若8月就业报告继续走弱，9月政策转向将更加难以 回避。 双线资本：美元或将大幅贬值 ...

美国最新就业数据显示美国经济和劳动力市场正急剧放缓，已让华尔街确信美联储的政策拐点迫在眉 睫。高盛与花旗等纷纷预测，25基点甚至50基点的降息最早将在9月启动，政策利率的最终落点可能下 探至3%甚至更低。同时，美联储内部鸽派力量正在集结，或为为更早、更快的降息扫清障碍。 美国经济正显现出明确的放缓信号，尤其是在关键的劳动力市场，这使得美联储启动降息周期似乎已 是箭在弦上。 最新的就业数据成为引爆市场预期的导火索。据追风交易台消息，高盛8月4日测算，美国潜在的月度 就业增长已从第一季度的20.6万骤降至7月的2.8万。花旗则在报告中指出，在就业数据大幅下修后， 美联储官员可能"不再有耐心等待降息"，已经失去了采取"观望"态度的"奢侈"。 基于此， 高盛与花旗均认为9月降息25基点的可能性极高，若数据进一步恶化甚至可能激进降息50基 点。 高盛预测，美联储将在2025年9月、10月和12月连续进行三次25个基点的降息。花旗则在其基 准情景中预测政策利率将降至3%，并认为风险偏向于更低的利率水平。 这一预期转变也受到政治因素的推动。美联储理事Adriana Kugler的辞职，以及上次会议中出现的自 1993年以来 ...