Core Viewpoint - The Oxford Economics Institute forecasts that the U.S. economy will maintain robust growth from 2026 to 2027, driven by investments in artificial intelligence, tax incentives, and spending by high-income groups [1] Economic Growth Projections - The projected GDP growth rate for the U.S. is 2.8% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, following a 4.4% annualized growth rate in Q3 2025 [1] - Rising investments in AI and non-tech sectors are contributing to productivity improvements [1] Consumer Spending and Market Conditions - Stock market gains and tax cuts are supporting consumer spending [1] - Inflation is expected to slow to 2.4%, creating conditions for the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts next year [1] Inflation and Housing Market - A decline in immigration and weakening housing demand may further alleviate inflationary pressures [1] - Overall, the fundamental outlook for the U.S. economy remains strong, although there is a high sensitivity to stock market performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent market volatility, the core drivers of the market have not changed significantly since the beginning of the year, according to Goldman Sachs' trading head Mark Wilson [1][5]. Market Volatility - The market experienced extreme volatility this week, with Microsoft suffering its second-largest single-day market value loss, dropping 10%, while SAP fell 16% [2]. - Silver saw a dramatic single-day drop of 30%, with the SLV ETF trading volume exceeding $32 billion, and the GLD ETF recorded over $30 billion in trading volume for two consecutive days [3][4]. Key Market Drivers - Key market drivers such as the continued strength of the dollar, sustained enthusiasm for AI investments, robust U.S. economic growth, and geopolitical shifts remain unchanged [1][6][8]. - Year-to-date market performance reflects these trends, with rare earths up 35%, nuclear stocks up 21%, and European defense stocks up 20% [8]. Investor Positioning - Investor positioning has reached extreme levels, with total exposure at the 99th percentile, indicating overcrowding in holdings [1][9]. - The semiconductor and semiconductor equipment sectors now account for 12% of hedge fund net risk exposure, up from just 1% two years ago, while the software sector has decreased from 18% to 3% [9]. Annual Core Views - Wilson maintains six core views established in December, including the notion that the AI narrative has reached a critical juncture, and the upcoming Federal Reserve chair appointment could be pivotal for the market [10][11]. - The importance of hard assets, particularly those linked to infrastructure demand, is emphasized, alongside the need for diversification in stock market investments [11]. Emerging Themes - Emerging themes include UK real estate stocks trading at over 30% discounts to net asset value, challenges for European equities amid a weakening dollar, and the significant shift in hedge fund exposure from software to semiconductors [12].

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank forecasts global economic growth to remain at 3.4% in 2026, consistent with 2025, driven increasingly by domestic demand and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The US economic growth forecast has been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.3%, indicating strong growth expectations [1] - Inflationary pressures in the US may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to further ease monetary policy, with no interest rate cuts expected this year [1] Group 2: Market Risks and Uncertainties - The likelihood of extreme situations in global markets is heightened due to rising market risk factors, ongoing trade policy uncertainties, and expanding geopolitical risks [1] Group 3: China Economic Outlook - China's economic growth is expected to maintain a robust momentum, driven by technology-related investments, productivity growth, and policies promoting domestic demand [1] - Although China's foreign trade growth may moderate this year, efforts to diversify trade partners and a cooling of US-China trade tensions are expected to mitigate related impacts [1]

调查预计，美国今年GDP增速为2.4%，明年为2.2%，均高于美联储通常认定的潜在经济增长水平。失 业率预计到今年年底仅从当前水平小幅上升0.1个百分点至4.5%，并在明年略有回落。 消费者价格指数（CPI）预计将在今年年底达到2.7%，并在2027年回落至2.5%。 根据一项最新调查，尽管美国总统特朗普将在几个月内任命一位新的美联储主席，但受访者预计，美联 储未来两年可能只会再降息两次。 调查结果与联邦基金期货市场的定价基本一致，显示无论是华尔街人士还是经济学家，都不认为下一任 美联储主席会完全服从总统的意愿，大幅降低利率。 调查显示，受访者的平均预期是：今年还将有两次各25个基点的降息（共50个基点），而2027年预计不 会再降息。换而言之，联邦基金利率目标区间今年将下调至3%—3.25%，并维持这一水平直到2027年。 自开启第二任期以来，特朗普持续施压现任美联储主席鲍威尔，要求大幅降息。 特朗普曾表示，美国利率应当处于全球最低水平之列，并敦促美联储将利率降至1%。在通胀率约为2% 的背景下，这实际上意味着特朗普希望实现负的实际利率。 利率前景趋稳的一个原因，可能在于对美国经济增长的看法有所改善。 不过 ...

今日周一(1月26日)亚盘/欧盘/美盘时段，纸白银目前交投于23.623一线上方，截至发稿，纸白银暂报 24.060元/克，上涨5.46%，最高触及24.464元/克，最低下探22.814元/克，目前来看，纸白银盘内短线偏 向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美国1月标普全球服务业PMI初值52.5，预期52.8，前值52.5。美国1月标普全球制造业PMI初值51.9，预 期52，前值51.8。 与此同时，就业增长情况也令人失望，1月份的就业人数几乎停滞不前，因为企业在不确定的环境、疲 弱的需求和高昂的成本压力下，担心增加员工数量。 【最新纸白银行情解析】 日图来看，纸白银开盘直线拉升，目前价格涨超5%，一小时布林带向上扩张呈现喇叭型，显现上涨空 间充足，但是一小时MACD正直方图中柱型开始缩短，显示上涨动能减弱，DMI显示仍然处于上涨趋势 之中，纸白银走势下方关注21.00-22.50支撑，上方关注24.00-26.00阻力。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson表示，美国PMI初值显示，年初经济持续保持增长 态势，但进一步的迹象表明，自新年伊始，经济增长的速度已有所放缓，与去年秋季所呈 ...

Economic Growth and Performance - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the annualized quarterly real GDP growth for Q3 2025 upward by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth since Q3 2023 and an acceleration from 3.8% in Q2 [1] - The upward revision was primarily driven by better-than-expected performance in exports and business investment, with both contributing an additional 0.2 percentage points to economic growth [3] - Business fixed investment grew by 3.2%, with investments in AI infrastructure reaching historical highs, alongside a recovery in manufacturing, which boosted non-residential investment growth [3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core PCE price index remained at 2.9%, consistent with initial estimates, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that complicate policy decisions [4] - Personal consumption expenditures, which account for over two-thirds of the economy, grew by 3.5%, serving as a stabilizing force for economic growth [3] Structural Disparities in Economic Recovery - The economic recovery is characterized by a "K-shaped" pattern, where high-income households benefit from stock market gains and high property values, while lower-income groups face greater cost-of-living pressures [3] - Large corporations are managing to improve profit levels despite rising costs from tariffs, while small businesses are experiencing ongoing operational pressures due to profit squeezes and reduced low-cost labor supply [3] Market Outlook and Diverging Perspectives - Optimists believe that the synergy of consumption, external demand, and investment indicates strong internal economic momentum, leading to revised upward forecasts for annual economic growth [4] - Cautious analysts highlight structural issues and policy uncertainties, suggesting that the "K-shaped" recovery may exacerbate income inequality and limit sustainable consumption [4] Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The Federal Reserve must balance economic resilience with inflation targets, as core PCE trends will directly influence interest rate decisions [5] - Economic factors such as consumer spending resilience, business investment expansion, and the alleviation of the "K-shaped" recovery will reshape growth trajectories [5]

最近公布的美国经济数据虽然在一定程度上符合预期，但由于数据滞后和多重因素的影响，美联储在即将召开的1月政策会议上，可能会选择维持现有的利 率水平，继续观察经济和通胀趋势。 美国经济分析局报告称，去年11月核心PCE价格指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%。整体PCE也呈现类似上涨幅度，符合市场预期。通胀压力依然存在，但 并没有加速的迹象。 美联储目前在处理通胀和就业市场的复杂局面时，面临的挑战在于如何平衡通胀压力和经济增长。 PCE数据提供了一个相对稳定的通胀图景，由于其滞后性和与政府停摆相关的数据扭曲，美联储可能不会将其作为立即调整政策的依据。 当前的经济增速和消费者支出稳定性也表明，美国经济仍具有一定韧性，但政策调整的时机可能会推迟，直到美联储能够通过更具时效性的数据确认经济走 势。 因此，1月的政策会议上维持现有利率的可能性较大，美联储在决策时需要更多考虑未来几个月内的数据更新。 美联储通常高度重视PCE作为通胀指标，但由于数据滞后，官员们可能会对这些数据保持谨慎态度，不会把它作为未来政策变动的主要依据。 关于美国消费者支出的数据也显示出一定的经济韧性。去年11月，调整后的个人支出增长了0.3%，是连 ...

Company Performance - Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) stock fell over 7% after reporting fourth-quarter 2025 sales of $11.46 billion, slightly missing the consensus estimate of $11.80 billion, with a sales increase of 4.4% on a reported basis and 3% on an organic basis [2][3] - The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.50, which was in line with Wall Street estimates [3] Market Movements - 60 Degrees Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:SXTP) shares surged 158% to $5.15 following a partnership announcement with Runway Health [9] - Eagle Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:EGBN) shares increased by 18% to $28.25 after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results [9] - Creative Media & Community Trust Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCT) shares rose 52% to $4.4494 after closing the sale of its lending division [9] - C3is Inc. (NASDAQ:CISS) shares dropped 37% to $0.088 after announcing a 1-for-20 reverse stock split [9] - Mingteng International Corporation Inc. (NASDAQ:MTEN) shares fell 34% to $0.020 following a 1-for-200 reverse stock split [9] - POET Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:POET) shares decreased by 12% to $7.35 after announcing a $150 million offering of 20.690 million shares [9]

The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department's estimate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday released its final reading of third-quarter GDP, which showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the three-month period including July, August and September. That figure topped the expectations of economists polled by LSEG, who had estimated 3.3% GDP growth in the third quarter. It was also the fastest growth rate in two ...

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 1074.22, with a slight decline of 0.09%, reaching a high of 1099.62 and a low of 1074.00 [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bearish [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% this quarter, reversing previous expectations of a rate cut before March [3] - The strong growth outlook for the U.S. economy and persistent inflation above the 2% target are the main reasons supporting this judgment [3] - 58% of economists surveyed expect no change in rates this quarter, with a consensus that the January FOMC meeting will result in no action [3] - Concerns about political interference are rising, with Trump criticizing Powell for not cutting rates effectively and potential criminal investigations into Powell's actions [3] Group 3 - The survey has raised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.3%, up from 2% last month, with an average of 2% expected by 2028 [4] - The chief economist at Oxford Economics is more optimistic, predicting a growth rate of 2.8% due to AI investments and tax cuts contributing 0.6 percentage points [4] - Inflation, as measured by PCE, is expected to remain above the 2% target this year and through 2028, with an average unemployment rate of 4.5% [4] Group 4 - As of January 22, 2026, the main gold futures contract has surpassed 1100 yuan/gram, creating a historical high and showing a high-level oscillation [5] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend in the short term, but caution is advised due to the RSI nearing the overbought zone [5] - Support is noted at 1090 yuan/gram, while resistance is observed at 1120 yuan/gram, with geopolitical tensions and global central bank gold purchases supporting the long-term trend [5]