来源：中国黄金网 如果60天线支持有效，反弹目标为4040~4050美元/盎司、4100~4140美元/盎司区间：如果60日均线能守住，国际金价短期可能先反弹到过去区间 4040~4050美元/盎司；要是能站稳这个区间，再往上就会冲击日云区顶4100~4140美元/盎司区间，但这个位置压力不小，能不能突破还要看后续信号。 对于刚接触黄金投资的朋友来说，近期国际金价的走势可能让人摸不着头脑——10月前一路狂奔，10月中旬以后则一路回调，11月虽有反弹但力度很弱， 后续还会不会跌、什么时候能涨，成了大家最关心的问题。其实只要理清核心逻辑，就能看懂国际金价的后续走向。 当前国际金价的核心现状：反弹无力，短期仍有下跌压力。 10月中旬开始，国际金价进入回调通道，主要是因为市场的避险情绪降温了。虽然11月有过一次技术性反弹，但没能突破10月跌浪菲波61.8％关键阻力 位，还很快回落至菲波38.2％下方，这说明反弹缺乏足够的资金和信心支撑，下跌趋势暂时没有被打破。 从技术层面看，有3个信号值得注意。一是多个周期的指数平滑异同移动平均线指标（MACD）指标呈现"死亡交叉"，这是偏向下跌的信号；二是国际金 价已经跌破了5日、 ...

Core Insights - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement regarding future interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping to around 30% [1][3] - The latest employment data from the U.S. Labor Department presents conflicting signals, which diminishes expectations for a December rate cut and increases the likelihood of the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach [1][5] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - Several participants at the October meeting suggested that if economic performance aligns with expectations, a further reduction in the federal funds rate target range in December could be appropriate. However, many others indicated that maintaining the current target range for the remainder of the year would be more suitable [3] - The minutes reveal a weaker inclination towards a December rate cut, as the term "many" implies a larger number than "several," indicating a divided stance among committee members [3] - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October and plans to stop reducing its balance sheet from December, reallocating MBS funds into short-term Treasury securities to optimize liquidity [3] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 52,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above prior expectations [5] - The conflicting employment data has weakened the December rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 50.1% to 32.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 67.2% [5]

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月20日｜历经破纪录的停摆期后，美国政府已重新运转，标志着分析美国经济健康状况与发展 轨迹的关键指标即将陆续发布。"这段时间就像在迷雾中盲飞，"穆迪分析公司首席经济学家Mark Zandi 感叹道，"我们完全失去了导航工具。"Zandi称，私营机构的数据让人们对官方数据可能呈现的结果有 了心理准备；但若实际数据与预期不符，市场可能出现剧烈震荡。"如果官方数据与预期吻合，那就皆 大欢喜，"他说道，"但倘若公布的数据——无论是向好还是向坏——偏离我们的预期，都可能引发市场 对政府停摆期间美联储政策效果的质疑。" ...

短期上，由于美联储12月降息预期明显下降，大概率可能不降息，将会在年底打压金价多头，使其维持 震荡调整。 不过，虽然12月降息并非"板上钉钉"。但美联储并没有放言结束宽松周期，而是多数官员认为随着时间 的推移会进一步放松政策，这说明降息周期仍然存在，金价的看涨前景依然良好，只是需要时间等待。 技术上，周线级别，金价上周冲高回落倒垂收线，本周受此压力先行表现走低，但目前受到10周均线支 撑反弹回升，这暗示后市仍有再度走强前景预期，再加上上行趋势保持不变，故此，如跌破10周均线支 撑，进一步走低触及中轨线等支撑附近，也是再度入场看涨的机会。 日图；金价目前整体是处于一定的震荡三角趋势行情中，短期将维持在此趋势内的上下阻力与支撑进行 多空操作，中期方向上方关注4230美元阻力能否突破持稳，下方关注3930美元能否跌破，来顺势跟进看 涨新高，还是进一步走低触及支撑再看涨。 今日周四，黄金开盘先行走强，重回30日均线上方，延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，但目前无持续的利好因 素，需等待晚间公布9月的非农和就业数据，以及上周初请数据来指引方向。 目前市场预期整体数据将利空金价，并且之后公布的美国11月费城联储制造业指数和美国10月 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The U.S. employment data affects the interest - rate cut expectations, leading to a slight increase in copper prices. Copper production shows an increasing trend, and as the demand side is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, the fundamentals limit the rebound space. With the release of U.S. economic data and the approaching of the interest - rate meeting, the trend of copper prices will become clearer [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were 232,000, and the continued jobless claims were 1.957 million, an increase from the previous week. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are resuming production, and with the increase in copper prices, production enthusiasm is rising, so output is expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. The rise in copper prices has restricted downstream consumption, and except for the power and power battery new - energy sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 134,304 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%, and imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, showing strength during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan/ton, and in South China was 35 yuan/ton. On November 18, 2025, the LME official price was $10,690/ton, and the spot premium was - $41/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 58,400 tons, a decrease of 2,522 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 389,300 short tons, an increase of 3,221 short tons from the previous period [9].

本报记者 刘琪 近期，国际金价呈现先扬后抑的走势。Wind资讯数据显示，伦敦金现货价格在11月10日至11月12日连续上涨，11月13日盘 中冲高至4245.22美元/盎司后开始回落。11月18日，截至记者发稿时（下同），伦敦金现货价格盘中失守4000美元/盎司关口， 最低跌至3997.658美元/盎司。 受国际金价影响，国内金饰价格也大幅回调。"看到金饰价格跌至1300元/克以下，我就过来看看，怕再等下去价格又涨起 来。"11月18日在北京市丰台区一家周大福门店挑选首饰的梁女士对《证券日报》记者说，她最近在某社交平台上被"种草"了 该品牌的四芒星系列饰品，想趁金价回调时机入手。据悉，上周该品牌金饰克价最高升至1333元，而11月18日已经下调至1288 元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，两大因素共同导致了近期国际金价表现不佳：一方面，前期避险情 绪对金价的支撑有所减弱；另一方面，美国重要经济数据尚未恢复公布，投资者对劳动力市场和美国通胀走势预期并不一致， 对12月份美联储降息预期也有所摇摆。 市场避险情绪明显减弱 瞿瑞预计，短期来看，国际金价和银价都将会维持震荡格局，主要源于美联储12月 ...

当前趋势主要以短期震荡偏弱：金价在上周五大跌后，本周一处于调整状态。上方受到美联储鹰派言论导致的降息预期降温压制，下方则受到美元走软以及 地缘政治等因素带来的避险需求支撑。 关键阻力位 4110美元、4140美元 关键支撑位 4060美元、4030美元 震荡思路，高抛低吸为主。 对于短线交易，当前市场更偏向于在区间内进行高抛低吸的震荡操作。 如果金价反弹至4110美元至4140美元的阻力区域并出现上涨乏力迹象（比如出现特定的看跌K线形态），可以考虑轻仓试空。止损设置：参考放在4140美元 上方。目标位：可看向4060-4045-4030美元附近。 回调做多机会 如果金价回调至4030美元至4060美元的支撑区域并出现企稳信号（比如小级别图表的看涨K线组合），可以考虑轻仓试多。止损设置：参考放在4030美元下 方。目标位：可看向4100-4110-4030美元上方 今日黄金市场主要呈现震荡格局，短期走势偏弱但中长期上涨基础依然存在。 未来一周，以下事件和数据可能会引起金价较大波动，请密切关注： 反弹做空机会 关键经济数据发布： 9月非农就业报告：将于本周四（11月20日） 公布。这是本周的重中之重，数据结果将显 ...

Core Insights - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended, leading to a backlog of data that will be released in the coming weeks, providing critical information for the market and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have announced a timeline for the release of various economic data starting next week [1] - Key reports include the September non-farm payrolls on November 20, September real wage data on November 21, and the revised Q3 GDP on November 26 [1] - Additional reports will cover October personal income, spending, PCE price index, and the October international trade report on December 4, with the final Q3 GDP value set for December 19 [1] Group 2: Implications for the Federal Reserve - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will have complete data on employment and inflation before its meeting on December 9-10 [1] - The timely release of the October and November employment reports is crucial for the Fed's decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history will lead to a release of accumulated economic data, providing critical insights for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation [1] Economic Data Release Schedule - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Labor Department have announced a detailed schedule for the release of economic data starting next week [1] - Key dates include: - November 20: Release of the September non-farm payroll report [1] - November 21: Release of September real wage data [1] - November 26: Release of the revised Q3 GDP, along with October personal income, spending, and PCE price index [1] - December 4: Release of the October international trade report [1] - December 19: Release of the final Q3 GDP [1] Federal Reserve's Data Considerations - According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the Federal Reserve will have access to complete data on employment, inflation, retail sales, and preliminary Q3 GDP before its meeting on December 9-10 [1] - The timely release of the October and November employment reports is crucial for the Federal Reserve's assessment [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, allowing the release of key economic data to resume [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the September non-farm payroll report on November 20, which was delayed due to the shutdown [1] - Additional reports, including the "real earnings" report, will be released on November 21, while some labor data remains uncertain [1] Economic Data Release Schedule - The third quarter GDP revision will be published on November 26 at 8:30 AM EST [1] - Personal income, spending, and PCE price index for October will also be released on the same day [1] - The October international trade report is scheduled for December 4 at 8:30 AM EST [1] - The final value of the third quarter GDP will be available on December 19 at 8:30 AM EST [1]