Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. stock indices fell due to better-than-expected economic data, which dampened expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.38%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.50%, and the Nasdaq Composite also dropped by 0.50% as of the market close on the 25th [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, significantly lower than the expected 235,000, indicating a stronger labor market [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the second quarter was revised up to 3.8%, the best performance in nearly two years, driven by stronger personal consumption expenditures [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October decreased to approximately 87%, down from 92% the previous day [2] - Recent economic data has raised doubts about the necessity and extent of potential future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]

影响上，美国周初请失业金人数以外下降和美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修等，推动美元指数继续强势反 弹收涨，创近两周新高，一度打压金价走低，但受到逢低买盘和避险买盘支撑而反弹回升，最终震荡收 线。 展望今日周五(9月26日)：国际黄金开盘早盘有所走弱，但日内短周期来看，走盘依然还是偏向震荡波 动为主，多头暂时一方面受到阻力位的压制，另一方面，受到美元指数近日强势反弹，多头前景转强， 对金价产生利空预期。所以金价在突破阻力3780美元上方收线前，或者是回踩10日及30日均线支撑之 前，暂先保持震荡走盘行情对待。 日内将可关注美国8月核心PCE物价指数年率及月率、美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值等数据， 市场预期保持不变，但根据昨日公布的数据向好和之前公布的几次趋势来看，大概率将数据好于前值， 而会打压金价走低。反之则会提振金价走强。 上交易日周四(9月25日)：国际黄金震荡收涨，维持在5日均线上方，虽然附图指标多头信号减弱，但主 图走势仍倾向上行，故此，回撤调整触及各均线支撑位置，也都是看涨入场机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3735.78美元/盎司，整体维持震荡走盘，于欧盘初录得日内高点3761.31美 元， ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations due to a combination of strong U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions, with support from market buying interest and the performance of other precious metals [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 3.8% and initial jobless claims falling to 218,000, below the anticipated 235,000 [2]. - The strong economic indicators have bolstered the U.S. dollar, which rose to a three-week high, increasing the holding costs of gold as it is priced in dollars [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October decreased slightly from 90% to 85%, further pressuring gold prices [2]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Active buying interest in the market has provided strong support for gold prices, with silver and platinum reaching multi-year highs, indicating sustained interest in precious metals [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold faced resistance at the 5-day moving average, with a critical support level at the 10-day moving average around 3705 [6]. - The recent price action shows a downward trend in daily highs, suggesting a continuation of a weak market sentiment unless gold can break above the resistance at 3762 [6]. - The four-hour chart indicates a stalemate between bulls and bears, with key levels at 3717 for support and 3762 for resistance, which will dictate the market direction [9]. Key Upcoming Events - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE data and personal spending figures, as these will significantly influence gold's future trajectory [3][11]. - The core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, with potential implications for Federal Reserve policy and gold prices [3].

来源：乌鸦校尉 大家好，我是乌鸦。 话说，在跟懂王拉扯良久之后，美联储还是降息了。 其实降息这个事呢，美国内外那也算是早有预料，悬念只在降多少。 因为前一段时间，白宫之主特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔，为了争降息25个基点还是50个基点，打的那叫一个乌烟瘴气。 终于，靴子落地，当地时间9月17日，美联储决议降息25个基点。 看起来好像是鲍威尔"争赢了"？那老鲍要问你了： 这福气给你要不要啊？劳资都要愁死了！ 唉乍看起来是靴子已经落了地，但是啊，只落下来一只。这比干脆不落下来更难受啊…… 对于那些并不支持大幅降息的美国人来说，美联储这一来就25个点，他们还感觉出乎意料，而且你这一下就降这么多了，这次降完下次降不降？你把利率 降到什么位置是个头儿？ 那懂王和白宫呢，我说50个点，你就只给我降25个？那之后我还得给你继续上强度啊。 那特朗普和鲍威尔为这25个基点的差距争来争去，争的到底是什么呢？ 1 我们知道从懂王二度临朝以来，对美联储主席鲍威尔就不是很满意，激烈的时候甚至威胁要"越界"解雇鲍威尔，要这么说现在争论区区25个点的降息幅 度，已经算是非常平和了。 两人矛盾累积的一大触发点就是这个降息。特朗普是三番五次、日夜 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, trading around $3646.18 per ounce, following a slight decline of 0.2% to $3632.49 per ounce [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and expectations surrounding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - Despite a recent pullback from a record high of $3674.36, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with support levels identified around $3620 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 0.5% to $62.00 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market pressure [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will outpace expectations by 2025 due to OPEC+ production plans, while OPEC maintains a positive outlook for global demand growth [6] - The oil market is currently facing a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand uncertainties, with OPEC+ deciding to raise production quotas starting in October [6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a weak downward trend, with short-term resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.0 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but remain in a strong upward trend, with significant support from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [2][3] - As of September 12, spot gold is trading around $3635.18 per ounce, having seen a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous day, but still close to the record high of $3674.36 set earlier in the week [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - These mixed signals have led to increased volatility in the market but ultimately reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing further support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating no signs of a top and maintaining a strong bullish trend, with potential targets of $3660 and $3675 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the impact of economic indicators and Federal Reserve monetary policy on gold prices, highlighting a strong consensus on an imminent interest rate cut [1][2] - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent peak at $3674.36 per ounce, reflecting a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [1][2] - The latest U.S. economic data indicates a mixed picture, with a consumer price index (CPI) increase of 2.9% year-on-year, the highest in seven months, alongside a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut, reinforcing expectations for a looser monetary policy [2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, despite some signs of buyer fatigue in recent price movements [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish sentiment in the gold market, with a potential resistance level at $3650 and support around $3610, suggesting a cautious trading approach [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to three or possibly four individuals, indicating strong support for Kevin Hassett, his chief economic advisor, to replace Jerome Powell [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - The final candidates mentioned by Trump include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, with Hassett being the most prominently supported [1] - The candidate selection process initially considered up to 11 individuals, including various prominent figures from the financial sector [2] - Trump's previous statements indicated a fluctuating list of candidates, with Hassett and Warsh being consistently highlighted as top contenders [2] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Following a disappointing August jobs report, Hassett suggested that the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, although he speculated on the possibility of a larger cut [1] - Hassett downplayed the impact of the employment report, suggesting that revisions could lead to more favorable economic data in the future [1] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell regarding interest rate policies has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its leadership under potential new appointments [1][2] Group 3: Hassett's Background and Position - Kevin Hassett has been a long-standing member of Trump's economic team, known for his alignment with Trump's policies on trade, taxes, and inflation [3] - His tenure as an economic advisor has been marked by a supportive stance towards Trump's administration, contrasting with previous advisors who attempted to moderate Trump's more extreme positions [3] - Hassett has expressed a strong desire to become the Federal Reserve Chair, although his public statements have been somewhat ambiguous [4]

Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices experienced a sharp drop to around 3351 before quickly rebounding above 3386, followed by a period of fluctuation, maintaining a range between 3380 and 3367 during the European session, and ultimately closing above 3393 in the US session, forming a bullish candlestick with a lower shadow [1][2]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Board member Cook, citing "improper conduct" in mortgage applications, which is seen as a direct challenge to the Fed's independence. Cook plans to sue, asserting that the President lacks the authority to dismiss her [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have surged to over 87%, driven by comments from Powell regarding rising risks in the labor market, with institutions like Morgan Stanley predicting a rate cut [2]. - Economic data showed a 2.8% decline in July durable goods orders, better than the expected 4% drop, while consumer confidence fell in August, indicating a deteriorating labor market assessment. Upcoming GDP and PCE inflation reports will be critical for the Fed's September decision [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading within a converging triangle pattern, with a clear trend structure. The recent price action shows alternating bullish and bearish candles, indicating that the overall upward momentum remains intact [4]. - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3415 and 3426, while support is focused at 3323, which is the lower boundary of the triangle. The daily moving averages are in a bullish configuration, suggesting continued upward momentum [5]. - On a four-hour basis, gold's price action displayed a pattern of "bottoming out and recovering," with critical levels to watch being 3367 for support and 3409 for resistance. A break above 3409 could indicate a larger upward trend [5][6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a near two-week high of $3,386, driven by concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and expectations of a rate cut in September [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased to approximately 84.3%, up from 61.9% a month ago, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [2] - The technical outlook for gold remains bearish in the medium term, with expectations of a decline towards the $3,150 to $3,120 range, and a potential ultimate target of $3,000 to $2,950 [3] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - Current support levels for gold have been raised to the $3,350 area, with key resistance at $3,400 to $3,410 [6] - The trading strategy suggests a focus on buying on dips around $3,365 and $3,350, while considering short positions near the upper resistance levels [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced a slight decline after a strong rebound, with Brent crude down 0.23% to $68.64 per barrel and WTI down 0.54% to $64.46 per barrel [7] - Despite the recent pullback, oil prices remain in an overall upward trend, supported by supply concerns and potential sanctions [7] - The technical analysis indicates a small arc bottom formation in oil prices, with a focus on the $65 resistance level and a potential bearish outlook if prices fall below $64 [8]