2月5日；上交易日周三（2月4日）：国际黄金高开后，最终震荡十字收平，但仍处于中轨上方，后市仍 具走强前景，如收线在5100美元上方，多头动力则稳健加强，可跟进看涨新高。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4964.16美元/盎司，先行走强，于欧盘初录得日内高点5091.72美元，之后 多头动力减弱，陷入震荡，到美盘22点时段开始，空头开始发力，连续走低，于次日零点时段录得日内 低点4854.61美元，最后触底回升，收于4964.45美元，日振幅237.11美元，相对于周二收盘价4935.80美 元，收涨28.65美元，涨幅0.58%。 影响上，受到周二的买盘动力，而先行反弹走强触及日内高点，但由于地缘局势再反转，伊美核谈判将 恢复，美国1月标普全球服务业PMI终值及ISM非制造业PMI好于预期等，金价遇阻回落触及日内低点， 不过，仍受到支撑买盘，以及ADP就业人数不及预期，显示美国劳动力市场继续放缓，维持着一定的多 头力量，而震荡收涨。 展望今日周四（2月5日）：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，先行走强，看涨买盘动力依然很强， 其地缘局势的反反复复也令市场反应逐渐减弱，并也产生一定的不确定性，而间接利好金价。 另 ...

回顾去年12月，该委员会曾以5比4的微弱优势决定下调利率25个基点，不过市场普遍认为，这一调整对 英国经济长期基本面的影响有限，难以改变英镑的短期波动逻辑。在政策不确定性尚未消散前，资金趋 于谨慎，英镑买盘动力不足，间接推动英镑兑美元汇率走弱。 美联储相关动态及美元走强则从另一侧对汇率形成压制。近期美联储释放鹰派信号，市场对美国降息的 预期持续放缓，美元指数获得支撑，进而导致英镑兑美元被动贬值。 近期英镑兑美元汇率呈现持续下行态势，已连续两个交易日扩大跌幅，周四亚洲时段交投于1.3620附 近。 此次汇率走弱并非单一因素驱动，而是英国央行政策预期、美联储政策动态及美国经济数据等多重力量 共同作用的结果，短期市场波动仍将受关键事件指引。 英国央行利率决议的临近成为压制英镑的核心因素之一。市场普遍预期，英国央行货币政策委员会将在 2月维持现有政策不变。 受官方就业数据推迟发布影响，此次ADP数据的参考价值有所提升，短暂引发市场对美国就业市场复苏 动能的担忧。但同期公布的ISM服务PMI数据表现亮眼，1月份维持在53.8，高于53.5的市场预期，印证 了美国服务行业的韧性，一定程度上抵消了就业数据疲软带来的负面影响 ...

专题：黄金白银再迎大跌 "过山车"行情究竟驶向何方？ 文章来源：金十数据 由于中东等地缘局势有所降温，加之美国经济数据展现韧性削弱了避险需求，现货金银周四亚盘大幅跳 水。 现货白银跌破80美元/盎司后猛挫，向下触及74美元/盎司，日内一度跌16.05%；纽约期银向下触及74美 元/盎司，日内一度跌12.43%。现货黄金回落至4800美元/盎司下方，日内跌170美元，跌幅一度达 3.46%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 剧烈波动之下，泰国期货交易所（TFEX）宣布暂停白银在线期货的临时交易。有分析师警告投资者， 黄金和白银短期内可能会面临更大的抛售压力。 FOREX.com市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada表示："对我来说，近期黄金预测远非看涨。"他说，鉴于市场 波动较大，投资者现在寻找底部还为时过早。他补充说，他认为过去两天的买盘势头是逆趋势反弹。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 Razaqzada表示，除了黄金面临一些技术阻力外，市场还存在一些投资者需要关注的根本性变化。他解 释说，美元疲软看起来有点过度，美元短期内存在上涨风险。 他表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed volatility with a closing price of $4964.45 per ounce, indicating a potential for upward movement if it remains above $5100, suggesting a strong bullish momentum [1][3]. Market Performance - Gold opened at $4964.16, reached a high of $5091.72, and then fell to a low of $4854.61 before closing at $4964.45, with a daily fluctuation of $237.11 [1]. - The price increased by $28.65, or 0.58%, compared to the previous day's closing price of $4935.80 [1]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was initially supported by buying momentum from the previous day, but geopolitical tensions and better-than-expected U.S. economic data led to a pullback [3][5]. - The ADP employment data indicated a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, which maintained some bullish support for gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that upcoming unemployment claims data will likely favor gold prices, maintaining a bullish outlook [5]. - The partial government shutdown in the U.S. has delayed the release of non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence market expectations positively for gold [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices have found support after a dip, suggesting the potential for a new bull market [6]. - Weekly analysis shows a pattern that may indicate a bottoming out, with a higher probability of maintaining high-level fluctuations rather than a significant downturn [7]. - Daily charts indicate that gold prices are above key moving averages, with bullish sentiment prevailing [8]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4940, $4890, and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5120 and $5220 [9].

技术走势上，美元指数日线级别布林带持续收敛，价格运行于中轨下方，短期存在明确阻力区间与支撑 位。相关技术指标显示多空动能均偏弱，反弹力度受限，短线仍以区间震荡为主。交叉汇率方面，非美 货币表现强势，进一步压缩美指上行空间。 后市来看，美元指数中期方向将由两大核心变量主导：一是美国经济数据表现，若数据验证经济韧性， 将强化美联储鹰派立场，助力美指突破阻力区间；二是中东地缘局势的后续演变，若冲突再度升级，避 险买盘或重新推升美元。短期美指大概率维持区间震荡格局，市场需等待明确的数据与事件信号，打破 当前多空对峙的平衡。 美联储近期表态持续释放政策定力信号，多位官员强调短期内暂不启动降息，叠加相关鹰派人选的政策 倾向，进一步巩固市场对高利率维持周期的预期。美债收益率企稳回升，为美元指数构筑坚实底部支 撑，成为多头核心依托，持续支撑美指避免大幅下行。 地缘层面，美伊局势缓和推动避险情绪逐步消退，此前流入美元的避险资金出现分流，一定程度抵消了 美联储政策面的利好支撑。中东地缘风险溢价回落同步传导至大宗商品市场，美元与大宗商品的负相关 效应显现，对美指上行形成明显牵制。 近期，美元指数延续窄幅整理走势，多空力量在政策预期 ...

近期黄金（XAU/USD）价格在触及历史高点后出现小幅回落，回调过程中持续吸引新的买盘入场，市场需求保持旺盛。 美联储此次货币政策决议涉及未来利率路径，相关表态可能影响美元走势，进而传导至黄金价格。市场普遍预期央行今年仍有两次降息可能，这一预期此前 与美元走弱相关，成为黄金价格上涨的背景之一。 美国近期公布的部分经济数据超出市场预期。美国人口普查局周一数据显示，11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，高于预期的0.5%；剔除运输类别的核心订单 环比增长0.5%，剔除国防订单后增幅达6.6%。耐用品订单增长反映美国相关行业需求情况，其对黄金市场的影响程度受到关注。 截至周二亚洲交易时段，金价仍处于5100美元关口下方，回调幅度有限，未改变前期上行格局。多重因素对黄金价格构成支撑，短期存在潜在阻力，但价格 上行路径仍受到关注。 各国央行持续购金是支撑黄金价格的因素之一。部分主要国家央行近期积极购入黄金，例如中国人民银行12月实现连续第14个月增持黄金，波兰国家银行、 印度储备银行和巴西中央银行在2025年末至2026年初也保持购金节奏。央行购金行为增加了黄金市场需求，巩固了其储备资产地位。 零售端需求稳步提升及黄金投资 ...

美国经济学家蒂姆·迪（Tim Duy）指出，下一位美联储主席的决策行为，与当前经济环境及影响联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）其他成员的能力密切相关。 市场认为，美联储主席人选变动可能影响未来货币政策走向，这种不确定性加剧了美元指数弱势。 周二亚洲交易时段，美元指数（DXY）在97.00关口附近弱势震荡。 美元指数衡量美元对一篮子六种主要世界货币的价值，近期走势持续承压，核心受美联储政策预期、美国国内政策动态及经济数据预期影响。 当日稍晚，美国将公布ADP就业变化数据及消费者信心报告，两项数据表现将直接影响美元指数短期走势，受到市场交易员关注。 美元指数已跌至2025年9月18日以来最低水平，核心拖累因素是市场对美国联邦储备系统（Fed）独立性的担忧。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期将于今年5月 结束，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周表示，将很快宣布继任人选。 美国政府关门风险同样压制美元走势。目前美国政府面临部分关门隐患，美国参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默明确反对包含国土安全部拨款的资助方案。美国 国会需在1月30日前完成政府资助，否则将面临部分关门。政府关门风险会引发市场对美国经济稳定性的担忧，进而打压美元。 美联储即将召 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for the precious metals futures industry [2] Core View - The U.S. is deploying troops to Iran, imposing sanctions on entities related to Iran, and threatening to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Along with the ongoing Greenland issue, these factors increase market volatility and the bullish factors for gold. The U.S. weather conditions may dampen risk appetite, but silver follows gold's rise due to gold's increase and the U.S. GDP growth in Q3 2025. Overall, the bullish factors for precious metals increase, but risk management is needed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Market Review - The report presents figures on the internal and external prices of gold and silver futures, as well as the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai gold and silver futures, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [4][7] 2. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Figures on the U.S. dollar index, U.S. interest rates, and their relationship with the gold price are provided, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [9] 3. Macro Data - The report shows various U.S. macro - data figures, including CPI and PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, new non - farm employment, PMI, retail sales, personal disposable income, new private housing starts, and new housing sales, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [14][21][22] 4. Fund Holdings and Ratios - Figures on the total holdings of silver and gold ETFs, the holding ratios of gold and silver asset management institutions, and the gold - silver ratio and gold - copper ratio are presented, with data from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [25][31] Attention Factors - The report suggests paying attention to the evolution of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the change of the Fed's top management, and U.S. economic data [3]

近期，美国经济多项核心数据表现超出市场预期，强化了交易员对美联储年内推迟降息的判断。 美国劳工部公布数据显示，截至1月17日的一周内，美国初请失业金人数经季节性调整后为20万人，较 前一周小幅增加1000人，低于此前市场预测的21万人，反映出当前裁员率维持低位，就业市场仍具韧 性。 美国商务部同步更新去年三季度经济增速数据，将国内生产总值（GDP）环比年率增速上修至4.4%， 为2023年第三季度以来的最快增速，此前公布的初值为4.3%，今年第二季度GDP增速为3.8%，整体经 济增长动能强劲。 本周初，受美国总统特朗普威胁对反对其格陵兰岛收购计划的欧洲八国加征关税，叠加日本政府债券市 场因财政因素引发抛售潮影响，美国国债价格一度出现暴跌。周三，随着20年期美债拍卖需求强劲及特 朗普撤回关税威胁，美国国债市场收复大部分失地。富国银行驻纽约策略师Aroop Chatterjee表示："市 场已经消化了一些与格陵兰岛相关的不确定性。尽管如此，我怀疑这不会是我们最后一次听到特朗普收 购格陵兰岛的野心，因此，未来可能会出现更严重的波动。" 整体来看，美国经济的强劲表现为美联储维持当前利率立场提供了支撑，年内降息节奏或 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market will be more affected by U.S. economic data's impact on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical situations. In the short term, the influence of news will weaken, and the market will maintain a strong and volatile trend with reduced fluctuations. Gold long - positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff in the U.S. and the exchange's position - limit measures have eased capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline and then buy on dips, or sell out - of - the money options to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - Under the influence of strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals, platinum will fluctuate strongly in the short term but with a narrowing range. Platinum futures are recommended to be traded with high - selling and low - buying around the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan. Palladium performs weaker than platinum, and out - of - the money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1032.32 yuan/gram on January 16, down 2.88 yuan (-0.28%) from January 15 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 22483 yuan/kilogram on January 16, down 182 yuan (-0.80%) from January 15 [1] - PT2606 contract closed at 610.05 yuan/gram on January 16, up 1 yuan (0.16%) from January 15 [1] - PD2606 contract closed at 469.35 yuan on January 16, down 9.25 yuan (-1.93%) from January 15 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4601.10 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 19.40 dollars (-0.42%) from January 15 [1] - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 89.05 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 2.27 dollars (-2.46%) from January 15 [1] - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2342.90 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 72.90 dollars (-3.02%) from January 15 [1] - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1846.50 dollars/ounce on January 16, down 19 dollars (-1.02%) from January 15 [1] Spot Prices - London gold was at 4599.04 dollars/ounce, down 16.48 dollars (-0.36%) from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 90.13 dollars/ounce, down 2.26 dollars (-2.45%) from the previous value [1] - Spot platinum was at 2301 dollars/ounce, down 85 dollars (-3.56%) from the previous value [1] - Spot palladium was at 1755 dollars/ounce, down 51 dollars (-2.82%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1031.09 yuan/gram, down 2.83 yuan (-0.27%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 22641 yuan/kilogram, down 43 yuan (-0.19%) from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 602 yuan/gram, up 5 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.23, up 0.05 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 158, up 139 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 92.90% [1] - London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1] Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was 51.15, up 1.05 (2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE gold/silver was 45.92, up 0.24 (0.53%) from the previous value [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.27, down 0.03 (-2.02%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE platinum/palladium was 1.30, up 0.03 (2.14%) from the previous value [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.24%, up 0.07% (1.7%) from the previous value [1] - 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.59%, up 0.03% (0.8%) from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.91%, up 0.03% (1.6%) from the previous value [1] - U.S. dollar index was 99.37, up 0.03 (0.03%) from the previous value [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9674, up 0.0043 (0.06%) from the previous value [1] Inventories and Positions - SHFE gold inventory was 100053, down 99 (-0.10%) from the previous value [1] - SHFE silver inventory was 626843, down 11556 (-1.81%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36135901, up 3000 (0.01%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 429156441, down 4225669 (-0.98%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18823797, down 14274 (-0.08%) from the previous value [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 120632557, down 2571966 (-2.09%) from the previous value [1] - SPDR gold ETF position was 1086, up 10.87 (1.01%) from the previous value [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 16073, up 11.28 (0.07%) from the previous value [1]