8月4日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 9039 1.30% 513898 371051 数据显示，8月4日上海白银现货价格报价8940元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（9039元/千克）贴水99元/ 千克。 美国7月非农就业数据大幅低于预期（仅新增7.3万人，远低于市场预期的11万人），叠加5月和6月数据 被大幅下修（合计减少25.8万人），引发市场对美国经济衰退风险的担忧，联邦利率基金期货定价显 示，市场重新完全消化了今年两次降息的预期，其中第一次降息发生在9月的可能性为82%。此外，特 朗普政府解雇劳工统计局局长并施压美联储降息，进一步削弱市场对政策独立性的信心，加剧美元、美 股抛售压力。 疲软的就业数据和美联储的鸽派信息共同作用，使美元全面下跌。尽管美元在本周主要货币中仍保持领 先地位，但其领先优势显得脆弱。如果抛售持续到周末，美元可能会失去其周度领先地位。加元位居第 二，其次是日元。另一方面，欧元仍然是最弱的，其次是新西兰元和瑞士法郎。英镑和澳元位居中游。 但由于市场波动可能会持续，排名可能会在周末前发生变化。 国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特指出，上周五（8月1日 ...

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust reported a holding of 15,056.67 tons of silver as of August 1, with a reduction of 5.65 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On August 1, the spot silver price closed at $37.02 per ounce, up 0.90%, with an intraday high of $37.19 and a low of $36.33 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was significantly below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, far less than the anticipated 110,000, and revisions to May and June data showed a total reduction of 258,000 jobs [3] - The weak employment data has raised concerns about the risk of a U.S. economic recession, leading to market expectations for two interest rate cuts this year, with an 82% probability for the first cut in September [3] - The combination of weak employment data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve has resulted in a broad decline of the U.S. dollar, although it remains the leading currency among major currencies [3]

Group 1 - The recent weak employment report has raised concerns about the U.S. labor market, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The labor market's deterioration may suppress consumer spending, impacting overall economic growth, which increases the urgency for the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with probabilities rising from below 40% to nearly 90%, reflecting a shift in sentiment regarding the economic outlook [4] Group 2 - Analysts are divided on the potential magnitude of the rate cut, with some suggesting a cautious 25 basis points reduction, while others advocate for a more aggressive 50 basis points cut to boost economic confidence [4] - The release of the non-farm payroll data has caused volatility in global financial markets, with U.S. stock indices declining and U.S. Treasury yields falling significantly [5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments will not only impact the U.S. economy but also influence global financial markets and the monetary policies of other central banks [5]

根据《华尔街日报》的季度专业预测者调查，经济学家们预计，美国总统特朗普政策所带来的经济后果 可能没有担心的那么可怕，与三个月前相比，他们预计现在美国经济增长和就业创造将更强劲，衰退风 险更低，通胀更温和。 原因在于，上一次的调查是在特朗普威胁要对美国最大的贸易伙伴们征收"令人瞠目结舌的"关税的高峰 期进行的。此后不久，他暂停了部分关税。 这种改善的情绪是否会持续还有待观察。上周，特朗普告诉包括巴西、加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟在内的众 多贸易伙伴，他们将从8月1日开始面临远高于以往的关税。 作为衡量裁员情况的近实时指标，每周的初次申请失业救济金人数并未显示出任何令人担忧的迹象，而 今年早些时候曾呈自由落体式下滑的商业和消费者信心，似乎已经企稳，标普500指数本月创下历史新 高。 也许最重要的是，经济学家们曾广泛预测的由关税驱动的通胀飙升尚未实现。剔除了波动的食品和能源 成分的核心通胀5月份同比上涨2.8%，为四年来最低，尽管仍高于美联储2%的目标。 可以肯定的是，特朗普的政策正在影响消费者和企业的行为。随着消费者和公司赶在关税前行动，第一 季度商品进口同比增长了26%。在4月份关税生效后，进口量大幅下跌。 毕马威美国 ...

Market Performance - US stock markets collectively rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1% to 43,819.27 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose by 0.52% to 6,173.07 points and 20,273.46 points, respectively. For the week, the Dow Jones rose by 3.82%, S&P 500 by 3.44%, and Nasdaq by 4.25% [1] - In Europe, the DAX index rose by 1.62% to 24,033.22 points, the CAC40 increased by 1.78% to 7,691.55 points, and the FTSE 100 rose by 0.72% to 8,798.91 points. For the week, the DAX rose by 2.92%, CAC40 by 1.34%, and FTSE 100 by 0.28% [3][4] Individual Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.22%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks. Century Internet surged over 18%, while Daqo New Energy and JinkoSolar rose over 4%. Conversely, Brain Regen fell over 14%, and companies like Xpeng and Tiger Brokers saw declines of over 5% [5] - Nike's stock surged over 15%, becoming a market focus. Despite a significant drop in revenue and net profit for Q4 and the full fiscal year 2025, the performance exceeded market expectations. Q4 revenue fell 12% to $11.1 billion, and net profit dropped 86% to $211 million. For the full year, revenue decreased 10% to $46.3 billion, and net profit fell 44% to $3.219 billion [7][8] Economic Indicators - The US consumer income for May decreased by 0.4%, significantly below the expected growth of 0.3%. Personal spending also fell by 0.1%, contrary to the anticipated increase of 0.1%. However, the consumer confidence index rose sharply from 52.2 to 60.7, marking the largest increase since early 2024 [11] - The core PCE price index for May rose by 2.68% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%. The month-on-month increase was 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.1% [10][11]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1% to 43,819.27 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose by 0.52%, reaching 6,173.07 and 20,273.46 points respectively, with both indices hitting historical highs this week [1][2] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose by 3.82%, the S&P 500 by 3.44%, and the Nasdaq by 4.25% [1] European Market Performance - In Europe, the DAX index rose by 1.62% to 24,033.22 points, the CAC40 increased by 1.78% to 7,691.55 points, and the FTSE 100 gained 0.72% to 8,798.91 points [2][3] - Weekly performance showed the DAX up by 2.92%, CAC40 by 1.34%, and FTSE 100 by 0.28% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.22%, with notable gains in stocks such as Century Internet up over 18%, and Daqo New Energy and JinkoSolar both up over 4% [3] Nike's Financial Performance - Nike's stock surged over 15% despite reporting a 12% year-on-year decline in Q4 revenue to $11.1 billion and an 86% drop in net profit to $211 million [6][7] - For the full fiscal year, Nike's revenue decreased by 10% to $46.3 billion, and net profit fell by 44% to $3.219 billion [6][7] Nike's Strategic Shift - Nike's recent performance was attributed to a transformation strategy that aims to clear outdated inventory and re-establish wholesale partnerships, with expectations for improvement in future performance [7] - The company is launching a new transformation plan called "Sport Offense" to accelerate its "Win Now" strategy and drive long-term growth [7] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data has strengthened expectations for monetary easing, with traders increasing bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - Key economic indicators showed a 0.4% decline in personal income and a 0.1% drop in personal spending for May, both significantly below expectations [10] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.68% year-on-year, slightly above expectations, indicating persistent inflation pressures [10] Precious Metals and Oil Prices - International precious metal futures saw a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.85% to $3,286.10 per ounce and silver down 2.06% to $36.17 per ounce [13] - U.S. oil prices also fell slightly, with the main contract down 0.26% to $65.07 per barrel, reflecting a nearly 12% drop for the week [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has temporarily suspended the injunction against certain tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process, which is aimed at balancing the interests of all parties involved [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Court Decisions - The Federal Circuit's order emphasizes that the suspension of the injunction is not a final judgment but a measure to balance interests during litigation [1]. - The U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) previously ruled that President Trump could not impose unlimited tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3]. - The Federal Circuit has expedited the case, requiring oral arguments from both parties by July 31 [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. Department of Justice argued that halting the tariffs could jeopardize sensitive trade negotiations and potentially harm the U.S. economy [1]. - If the IEEPA-related tariffs are revoked, the effective tariff rate could decrease by 10 percentage points to 6%, but this change would not fully mitigate the losses from the trade war [5]. - The World Bank has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth down from 2.3% to 1.4% [5]. Group 3: Political and Strategic Considerations - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's ability to maintain tariff barriers through other legal avenues or executive powers [1][6]. - The potential use of various trade laws to impose tariffs has been acknowledged, but the effectiveness of these options remains questionable [6]. - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is expected to exacerbate the national budget deficit, with negative effects on economic growth and consumer prices [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a significant reversal, with spot gold prices initially dropping nearly 2% to $3120.64, before rebounding to close at $3239.58, marking a daily increase of nearly 2% and a fluctuation of over $100 [1] - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced demand for safe-haven assets due to easing trade war concerns and a strengthening dollar, while a recovery in physical demand provided some support [14] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with April's PPI experiencing its largest decline in five years, retail sales slowing, and the New York Fed manufacturing index contracting again, which has heightened expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for both the economy and the Fed [5] - Despite concerns about a potential recession, there is a cautious optimism among investors as the U.S. stock market shows resilience, although macro and micro-level risks remain [6] Group 3: International Monetary Policy - Mexico's central bank announced a 50 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate to 8.00%, with indications that similar reductions may follow in future meetings [8] - Goldman Sachs has revised its economic growth forecasts for Mexico, projecting GDP stability in 2025 and an increase in growth expectations for 2026 [8] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - The situation in Israel escalated as Houthi forces claimed to have targeted Ben Gurion International Airport with a missile strike, indicating a potential increase in military actions [9][11] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations have faced delays, with uncertainty surrounding the timing and agenda of future talks [12]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase has lowered the risk of a U.S. economic recession to below 50% and adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from September to December [1][3]. Economic Outlook - JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, attributes the improved outlook to the U.S. government's recent reduction of certain tariffs on China, which has significantly lowered recession risks [3]. - The firm has raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy, now expecting a growth of 0.6% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 0.2% [3]. Inflation and Employment - A key inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, is now expected to rise to 3.5%, down from an earlier forecast of 4%, indicating reduced inflationary pressures [3]. - Although a slight decline in employment is anticipated later this year due to a slowdown in labor demand, the overall employment situation is not deemed alarming, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to act [4]. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Timing - The adjustment in the expected timing for interest rate cuts reflects a broader consensus among major Wall Street firms, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays also pushing their rate cut predictions to December [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent global risk aversion has decreased, leading to significant fluctuations in international gold prices, with key resistance at $3250 per ounce and a drop below $3230 per ounce observed [1][2]. Market Trends - On May 14, the London spot gold price fell to below $3230 per ounce, reaching a low of $3221.45 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures also dropped below $3230 per ounce [2]. - Domestic jewelry gold prices have also declined, with prices for gold jewelry falling below 1000 yuan per gram, specifically to 992 yuan per gram for Zhou Shiliu and 980 yuan per gram for Caibai [2]. Investment Flows - In April, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of $11 billion, with Asia accounting for 65% of the total inflow, primarily driven by the Chinese market, which saw inflows surpassing the total for the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Trading Activity - April recorded an average daily trading volume of $441 billion in gold markets, a 48% increase month-on-month, with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) seeing a 31% increase in off-exchange trading volume [4]. - As of the end of April, net long positions in COMEX gold futures decreased by 30% to 566 tons, with fund managers' net long positions dropping to 360 tons, a 35% decline from the average level in 2024 [4]. Short-term Outlook - Market sentiment is cautious regarding short-term gold price movements, with expectations of a potential adjustment as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance [4]. - Analysts predict that while short-term pressures exist, the risk of U.S. economic recession may lead to a shift towards looser monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting a medium-term upward trend in gold prices [4][5]. Long-term Projections - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a year-end target of $3700 per ounce and predictions from other analysts suggesting potential increases to $4000 per ounce [5]. - Factors such as declining confidence in U.S. assets, concerns over economic recession, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices in the long run [5].