Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a divergence between the optimistic sentiment in financial markets and the underlying economic indicators that suggest a potential slowdown, particularly due to the impacts of the Trump trade policies [1][10][11] - Recent weeks have seen a warming sentiment in U.S. financial markets, with a notable decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 20 basis points, alleviating concerns of large-scale foreign capital withdrawal [2][5] - Risk assets have shown a comprehensive rebound, with bullish leveraged ETFs attracting approximately $7 billion in inflows over the past month, indicating a renewed embrace of risk assets by most investors [5][3] Group 2 - High-frequency data is signaling a slowdown in economic activity, with a significant decline in the number of container ships traveling from China to the U.S., which may lead to higher consumer inflation and substantial layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail sectors [7][8] - A Bloomberg economist survey indicates that the median probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months has risen from 30% in March to 45%, with consumer confidence hitting a recent low [10] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led investors to adopt a defensive stance, waiting for clearer economic signals, as mixed signals from the administration contribute to market volatility [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar, indicating a loss of confidence among foreign investors in U.S. assets due to rising interest rates and economic uncertainties [1][2][10]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced a continuous decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 6.86 basis points to 4.4876% and the 30-year yield increasing by 0.72 basis points to 4.8723% [1][4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has surged nearly 50 basis points this week, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001, while the 30-year yield has risen over 46 basis points, the largest since 1982 [1][4]. - The increase in yields suggests a negative correlation with bond prices, indicating that higher yields lead to lower bond prices [4][6]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, dropping nearly 2% and breaking below the 100 mark for the first time since July 2023, with a cumulative decline of over 3% for the week [1][8]. - The euro and yen have shown strong rebounds against the dollar, with the euro rising nearly 3.6% and the yen over 2% during the week [8]. - Analysts suggest that the significant drop in dollar demand reflects a reevaluation of reliance on the dollar as a reserve currency, which could negatively impact the sustainability of the U.S. economy [10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The rise in Treasury yields may lead to increased borrowing costs for mortgages and corporate loans, potentially impacting the U.S. economy negatively [6]. - There are concerns regarding the loss of confidence in U.S. policies, particularly in light of tariff uncertainties, which may lead to a broader market impact [7][11]. - Economic forecasts remain pessimistic, with predictions of a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth and rising unemployment rates, despite the government's decision to delay high tariffs on several trade partners [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the economic environment, indicating a potential shift from "concern" to "reality" regarding recession risks, with the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates being constrained [3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the federal funds target rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% reflects ongoing economic uncertainties, particularly related to inflation and growth forecasts [3]. - Economic growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised downwards by 0.4pct, 0.2pct, and 0.1pct respectively, with the 2025 GDP growth now projected at 1.7% [3]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upwards to 4.4%, while the core PCE inflation forecast has been raised to +2.5% [3]. - The report highlights concerns over inflation driven by tariffs and the impact of Trump's policies on economic growth, suggesting a negative outlook [3][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting emphasized increased uncertainty in economic prospects, with a notable shift in the tone of the statements regarding inflation and growth risks [3]. - The updated economic projections indicate a significant downward bias in growth forecasts and an upward bias in unemployment rate predictions [3][8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that while recent strong commodity inflation readings reflect tariff-induced price increases, the Fed remains cautiously optimistic about the long-term inflation outlook [3][4]. - The Fed's ability to lower interest rates is limited, which may accelerate the transition of recession risks from concerns to reality [3]. Sector Recommendations - Gold is recommended as a strong investment opportunity, with expectations of price increases driven by a potential "hard landing" in the U.S. economy and a renewed Fed easing cycle [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is seen as having upside potential due to the Fed's easing cycle, with expectations of improved revenue in the medium to long term [4]. - U.S. equities are viewed as facing downward adjustments due to increasing economic risks and uncertainty in earnings growth [4].

特斯拉暴跌超15% 据每日经济新闻，当地时间3月10日，受美国总统特朗普关税政策影响，美国经济衰退风险上 升，引发市场严重担忧，美股三大指数大幅收跌，道指跌890.01点，跌幅2.08%；纳指跌727.90 点，跌幅4%；标普500指数跌2.7%，大型科技股普跌，特斯拉跌超15%，为2020年9月以来最大 单日跌幅，市值一夜蒸发1303亿美元（约合人民币9459亿元）；英伟达跌超5%，苹果、Meta、 谷歌跌超4%，微软跌超3%。加密货币、汽车制造、半导体板块跌幅居前，Coinbase跌超17%， Strategy跌超16%，康特科技跌超8%，阿斯麦跌超6%。中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌 3.59%，极氪跌超11%，哔哩哔哩跌超9%，金山云跌超7%，阿里巴巴、理想汽车跌超5%，京 东、拼多多跌超3%。 当地时间3月10日，因为美国总统特朗普的贸易政策已被证明比预期更为激进，可能导致物价 上涨和金融状况收紧，高盛下调了2025年美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期，将美国内生产 总值的增长预期从年初的2.4%下调至1.7%。这是高盛两年半以来首次调低对美国的经济预期。 社交媒体X周一频繁宕机， 昨天，发生了 ...