Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump criticizing Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which he claims is damaging the U.S. housing industry [2][3][4] - Trump's urgent call for interest rate cuts is driven by the significant impact of high rates on the housing market, where mortgage rates have surged above 7%, leading to a 23% drop in new home sales [5][6] - The housing industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 15% of GDP, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][7] Group 2 - Powell's resistance to lowering interest rates is based on persistent core PCE inflation at 3.2% and a robust job market, which he believes could lead to a resurgence of inflation if rates are cut [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, as historical precedents show past chairpersons have been influenced by political figures, yet Powell is determined to maintain this independence despite Trump's pressure [10][12] - The ongoing standoff between Trump and Powell poses risks not only to the U.S. economy but also to the global economy, as changes in U.S. interest rates can have widespread implications for global capital flows and economic stability [20][22][24]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market currencies experienced a slight decline as traders processed signs of progress in Ukraine peace negotiations while awaiting more insights on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole [1] Group 1: Currency Market - The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index fell slightly, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, influenced by the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, and Colombian peso [1] - The U.S. dollar saw a modest increase amid low trading volumes as traders focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech to solidify their bets on a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Stock Market - The index tracking emerging market stocks also experienced a slight decline, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the currency market [1]

市场就是如此扑朔迷离，刚刚登上新高的比特币，还没来得及欢欣鼓舞，就在4天内下挫接近1万美元， 甚至还有进一步下探趋势。而近期最亮的"仔"以太坊也不遑多让，迎头上升的大好态势被斩断，从4788 美元回到了4300美元下方。对波动更为敏感的山寨市场再度被抽血，多数代币下跌超15%，给蠢蠢欲动 的山寨板块又降了一次温。 要是回顾降息这一议题，在美国，堪称一场政治大戏。 紧缩周期已长达三年的美国，成效显著。无论外界是否怨声载道，通胀率逐渐可控是事实，而拜登当时 的改善家庭资产负债表直接发钱的操作虽给通胀带来挑战，但也的确通过将债务从家庭转嫁给政府，促 使美国完成了经济软着陆。 然而，本来预计今年就快结束的紧缩周期，让特朗普横插一脚的关税大战所打破。美联储陷入了两难境 地，一方面，GDP萎缩与通胀高企两难全；另一方面，保留冗余以应对总统的后续政策也有必要。特朗 普与美联储的对立格局，就此形成。 这厢特朗普气急败坏，连发数条社媒认为美联储降息过晚，威胁要让鲍威尔下台，甚至找上影子主席， 要在美联储安插自己人，祭出"后继有人"的大招。那厢鲍威尔顶住压力坚守阵地，硬刚"他没资格开除 我"，表示CPI和通胀才是决定一切的核心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to act to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [1] Monetary Policy - Bowman urges other Federal Reserve decision-makers to begin cutting rates at the upcoming September meeting, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of her stance [1] - She believes that the proposed cuts will help avoid unnecessary worsening of labor market conditions and reduce the likelihood of needing larger policy adjustments in the future [1] Economic Outlook - Bowman reiterates that tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to sustain inflationary pressures [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained interest rates so far this year, with Bowman previously supporting this stance until June [1] - In July, both Bowman and Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 basis point rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump signals a clear direction for future U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Philosophy and Policy - Milan's economic philosophy aligns closely with Trump's "America First" agenda, advocating for supply-side economic policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, and increased energy production as fundamental measures against inflation [1]. - He is a staunch "hawk" on inflation, criticizing the Fed's previous rate cuts under Powell, arguing that the Fed's tolerance for inflation rates close to 3% undermines the legislative spirit of "stabilizing prices" [1][5]. Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Milan has expressed concerns over the blurred lines between fiscal and monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting that this has compromised the Fed's institutional independence [1][3]. - His call for Congress to reform the Fed's structure to allow the White House greater power to dismiss Fed officials indicates a push towards reducing the Fed's autonomy [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications of the Nomination - The unexpected departure of current board member Kugler provides Trump with a strategic opportunity, as Milan's short-term appointment could influence future leadership decisions at the Fed [4]. - Milan's presence on the board, even for a brief period, is expected to heighten market uncertainty regarding the Fed's future policy direction, reflecting Trump's intent to exert influence over monetary policy [4][5].

最近，市场上有一件事格外引人注目：美联储主席的继任人选浮出水面。 这可不是普通的人事变动。谁来接替这个位置，意味着未来美国货币政策的方向。加息还是降息，放水还 是紧缩，市场怎么走、资本怎么流，背后都离不开这个核心岗位的动向。 本周有个关键信息：候选人已经缩小到了四位。而且这四人中，出现了明显的"领跑者"。 先看前两个入围者，名字都叫凯文，一个叫凯文·哈塞特，另一个叫凯文·沃尔什。 哈塞特的背景不难看懂，曾经担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席，现在还在担任经济顾问，和决策圈的联系非 常紧密。他对过去的政策思路非常熟悉，属于那种"贴身型"技术官员。 沃尔什则是另一种类型，之前在2006年到2011年担任美联储理事，时间点非常关键，他在金融危机那几年 参与了不少重要政策讨论。 这种人讲求稳妥，也有实战经验。据说他在华尔街的评价还不错，不算特别激进，但也不是完全鸽派。 接下来是第三位：沃勒。他现在就是美联储理事，不是局外人。上周他在利率决策会上投了反对票，说现 在通胀压力其实没有那么严重，反而是就业和经济增长开始走弱。所以他的观点是支持降息。 这个观点引起了不小关注，因为在当前货币政策方向不明朗的情况下，公开支持降息就代表着 ...

据中国网财经中心消息，美联储最新议息决议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.5% 不变 。此消息一 出，金融市场震荡，各界反应强烈，尤其是特朗普，对这一结果极为不满。 自特朗普上台以来，一直积极推行大规模关税政策，试图以此重振美国经济，特别是制造业与贸易领域。 更糟糕的是，5 月新增就业人数从最初公布的 14.4 万修正为 1.9 万，6 月的数据从 14.7 万修正为 1.4 万。 这表明美国就业市场明显降温，经济增长动力不足。在这种情况下，特朗普要求降息似乎有其合理性。 特朗普（资料图） 然而，鲍威尔在 7 月 30 日的记者会上明确表示，实施适度约束性的货币政策看起来是合适的。他还提 到，美联储尚未就 9 月份货币政策作出决定，这取决于下一次议息会议前公布的就业和通胀等数据。 特朗普（资料图） 不过，这一政策的实施效果却不尽如人意，美国经济面临着更为严峻的价格压力与增长放缓风险。在这样 的背景下，特朗普多次公开炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，强烈要求降息，期望借此刺激经济增长。 当地时间 24 日，特朗普甚至罕见地造访美联储，再次向鲍威尔施压。在视察翻新工程现场时，特朗普与 鲍威尔就工程成本问题产生争执， ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company: Zhaojin Mining Industry Co., Ltd. Key Points Industry Overview - Geopolitical conflicts and de-globalization trends are driving gold demand, offsetting the negative impact of high U.S. real interest rates on gold prices [2][3] - Global central banks and private capital are increasing gold allocations, diminishing the explanatory power of traditional interest rate models on gold prices [2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained interest rates, with a slight reduction in expectations for a rate cut in September [2][5] - The relationship between U.S. real interest rates and gold prices has weakened significantly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 [3] Gold Market Dynamics - U.S. 10-year real interest rates are at historical highs but are on a downward trend, with inflation data and Fed policy being key observation points [2][5] - Gold ETFs in Europe and North America dominate the global market, accounting for over 93% of the total, with net purchases showing a negative correlation with U.S. real interest rates [8] - Despite a net outflow from global gold ETFs, there has been a net inflow in the first half of 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in investment demand [2][9] Central Bank Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold provide solid support for gold prices, accounting for over 25% of total gold demand [10] - Countries like Poland and China have been actively increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a long-term bullish outlook on gold [10] Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining is expanding its production capacity through internal growth and acquisitions, notably the successful acquisition of Australian company Iron Road [4][11] - The Haidi Gold Mine, as the second-largest single gold mine in China, is expected to significantly boost production capacity [12] - The Abidjan Gold Mine has commenced production and is nearing full capacity, with a projected annual output of approximately 5.28 tons [14][15] Financial Performance and Projections - Zhaojin Mining's target price is set at HKD 27, indicating a potential upside of about 40% [11] - The company anticipates a 169% growth in 2024, positioning itself as the third-largest gold producer in China [20] - Future earnings are projected to be approximately CNY 3.25 billion in 2025, with potential increases if gold prices rise above CNY 790 per gram [19] Governance and Management Changes - Recent changes in governance, including a younger management team, have improved operational efficiency and reduced management expense ratios [18] - The partnership with Zijin Mining is expected to create synergies in investment, technology, and talent development [17] Risks and Challenges - Potential asset impairment losses could negatively impact profitability [29] - Risks associated with the construction of the Haidi Gold Mine and overseas operations in politically unstable regions [29] - Environmental concerns related to mining practices, such as cyanide use and waste management [29] Conclusion Zhaojin Mining is well-positioned for growth in the gold mining sector, supported by favorable market dynamics and strategic acquisitions. However, it must navigate various risks, including operational challenges and market fluctuations.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting is under intense scrutiny, with expectations to maintain interest rates unchanged, while President Trump and officials exert unprecedented pressure for a rate cut [1][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50% during the July meeting [6]. - Recent political pressure from the White House has intensified, with officials criticizing the Fed's current rate stance as unreasonable [3][5]. - The meeting is perceived as having significant implications for Fed Chairman Powell's future, particularly regarding his potential continuation in the role after May [1][3]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Implications - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve headquarters was described as an unusual political maneuver aimed at undermining Powell's public image and pushing for lower interest rates [3]. - The pressure from Trump and other officials is linked to rising government debt, with interest payments nearing $1 trillion, which could impact budget allocations for other critical projects [5]. - Despite the political pressure, there is no indication that the Federal Reserve will yield to demands for an immediate rate cut, as it remains focused on economic data [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the potential economic impacts of Trump's tariff policies, which may slow economic activity while increasing inflation [6]. - The Fed has maintained rates since early 2025 after a cumulative cut of 100 basis points, with future cuts contingent on inflation remaining low [6].

Core Points - A U.S. District Court judge dismissed a legal request from investment fund Azoria Capital to force the Federal Reserve to make its upcoming interest rate meeting public [1] - The ruling confirmed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not considered a government agency under the Federal "Sunshine Act," thus not required to disclose its meetings [1] - Judge Beryl Howell noted that the FOMC's long-standing practice of closed-door meetings does not violate current laws [1] Group 1 - Azoria Capital filed for a temporary restraining order in federal court, seeking to open the FOMC's interest rate decision meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday [1] - Judge Howell questioned Azoria's motives, suggesting that the fund may not genuinely seek transparency but rather aims to gain media attention for its new fund [1] - Azoria expressed dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming that high interest rates are intended to undermine former President Trump's economic agenda, which they argue harms the American people and economy [1] Group 2 - James Fishback, CEO of Azoria Capital, has consistently criticized Powell's refusal to lower interest rates, aligning with Trump's stance [2]