哈塞特明确反驳了总统意见与FOMC投票成员具有同等权重的观点。他表示，政策制定者可以自由拒绝总统的意见 并"以不同方式投票"。哈塞特说道，"不，不，他不会有任何分量。只是，如果他的意见是好的、基于数据的，那么他 的意见就很重要。" 哈塞特的表态凸显了平衡总统影响力与美联储独立性的微妙性。他试图将特朗普定位为众多可咨询的专家之一，同时 明确表示总统意见在实际决策中不具有决定性权重。 明确划定总统意见边界 在周日的电视访问中，哈塞特详细阐述了他对美联储独立性的理解。他表示，"美联储的工作是保持独立，与理事会 成员、联邦公开市场委员会合作，就利率走向形成集体共识"。 当被问及是否会每天与总统交流时，哈塞特表示愿意"每天都与总统交谈直到我们都去世，因为与他交谈非常有趣"。 但他强调，这种交流不会影响货币政策的独立性。 哈塞特明确反驳了总统意见与联邦公开市场委员会投票成员具有同等权重的观点。 他表示，政策制定者可以自由拒 绝总统的意见并"以不同方式投票"。"不，不，他不会有任何分量，"哈塞特说道，"只是，如果他的意见是好的、基 于数据的，那么他的意见就很重要。" 特朗普持续施压降息 特朗普的首席经济顾问哈塞特Kevin ...

特朗普的首席经济顾问哈塞特Kevin Hassett周日表示，如果被选中领导美联储，他将考虑总统的政策意 见，但央行利率决策将保持独立。这一表态试图在承认特朗普影响力的同时，强调美联储决策机制的独 立性。 特朗普和高级顾问数月来一直向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求降息。在周日白宫的节日招待会上，特朗普 表示"我们很快就会有一个优秀的美联储主席，他会希望看到利率下降"，但"我们正在与更高的利率作 斗争"。 据彭博报道，特朗普在上周五的采访中表达了对美联储利率政策的看法，认为总统应该能够对利率政策 提出建议。这一言论引发了对美联储独立性的新一轮讨论。 哈塞特在CBS《Face the Nation》节目中回应了特朗普上周五关于应该能够对美联储利率提出建议的言 论。他表示，总统"对我们应该做什么有非常强烈且有根据的观点"，但"美联储的工作是保持独立"。 这番表态正值特朗普考虑美联储主席人选的关键时刻。美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于5月结束，哈 塞特被视为该职位的热门候选人。特朗普还在上周会见了前美联储理事Kevin Warsh，并在周五的《华 尔街日报》采访中将两人列为美联储主席的首选。 哈塞特的表态凸显了平衡总统影响力 ...

汇率为什么总给人忽上忽下的感觉很多人看汇率，就像看天气。昨天晴天，今天突然阴了，一会儿看着还行，一会儿又跳了几格。其实它背后都是有节奏 的。有人形容过，汇率像个脾气敏感的朋友，你一句话不对，它就要变变脸。但这并不是它在"发脾气"，而是市场在不断把各方的信息揉在一起，最后呈现 出来的数字。 今天咱们就先聊一句很多人都会问的问题。早上刷手机的时候，你是不是也会看到汇率数字跳来跳去，然后心里嘀咕一句，这玩意到底是啥逻辑？别担心， 今天换个更接地气的方式，把人民币兑美元的情况说得明明白白。 人民币走强的阶段性规律如果把这一年的走势放在一起看，会发现它并不是一条直线往上冲。有段时间像慢慢往前挪，有段时间突然一下子就突破了关键点 位。其实这就像跑步，有时候你慢跑，有时候突然加速，而整体方向大体一致。 比如前面的几个月，有时候属于市场推你走，有时候属于你自己靠实力往上顶。到了十一月之后，很多人都能明显感觉到人民币更有劲了，像突然打开了加 速档。 像现在人民币兑美元在七点零七附近，很多人第一反应是，怎么又强了？这种数字本身不说明好或坏，但它反映的，是市场觉得人民币更有"存在感"。 人民币为什么会走强这个事不能只看一个点，要像 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have risen to their highest level since late October, driven by expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy and increased risk aversion among investors [1] - Market expectations have shifted due to recent comments from U.S. central bank officials, leading traders to believe there may be room for further interest rate adjustments, which has pressured the dollar and benefited gold [1] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with recent manufacturing activity surveys showing volatility, which has heightened investor uncertainty regarding global economic growth [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, gold prices are currently maintaining near recent highs, with a key observation point at the $4,300 level; if prices stabilize above this level, it may open up further upward potential [3] - Conversely, if prices decline, there are technical support areas below, with the recent low around $4,200 serving as initial support, and further support levels formed by previous price congestion and long-term moving averages [3] - A significant drop below these support areas could alter the short-term upward trend and trigger broader technical adjustments in gold prices [3]

新加坡元兑美元在亚洲交易时段汇率保持盘整。三菱日联的Lloyd Chan在一份研究报告中写道，市场正 等待美国总统特朗普预计将在未来几周内宣布下一任美联储主席的人选。财政部长贝森特已表示，继任 者很有可能在圣诞节前被提名。Chan表示："鲍威尔的任期定于2026年5月结束，任何关于领导层的早 期信号都可能影响市场对2026年美国货币政策的预期。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4032 per ounce, reflecting a downward trend in gold-related products and ETFs, indicating potential market volatility and investor behavior [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 21, gold ETFs, including 华夏, have seen a decline of 0.75%, while gold stock ETFs dropped by 2.9%, and non-ferrous metal ETFs fell by 5.23%, suggesting a broader market sell-off [1]. - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $4076.7 per ounce, down by $6.1, marking a decrease of 0.15% [7]. - The trading volume for 华夏黄金ETF reached 76.87 million, with a turnover rate of 7.46% [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September employment report showed a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000, significantly above the expected 50,000, which has influenced market expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy [8]. - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.3% to 4.4%, indicating mixed signals in the labor market [8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes suggested a hawkish stance, with some officials indicating that maintaining interest rates through 2025 may be appropriate, while others hinted at potential rate cuts if economic conditions align [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UBS has raised its mid-term gold price target for 2026 from $4200 to $4500 per ounce, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and strong demand from central banks and ETF investors [9]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice to its members to enhance risk control measures due to recent market instability, emphasizing the need for proactive risk management [10][11]. - Analysts from 光大期货 and 瑞达期货 suggest that while short-term gold prices may face challenges, long-term demand for gold as a hedge against dollar weakness remains strong, potentially leading to higher price levels [11].

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the September employment report due to the U.S. government shutdown has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting in December [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations** - Wells Fargo analysts maintain the expectation that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, despite acknowledging significant internal disagreements within the monetary policy decision-making body [1] - The discussion surrounding the potential rate cut in December is expected to be intense, with both supporting and opposing views being closely matched [1] - **Market Reactions and Economic Signals** - If the Federal Reserve decides to keep interest rates unchanged in December, it would not be surprising to Wells Fargo, indicating a cautious stance among financial institutions due to the lack of clear economic signals [1] - The analysis highlights the high uncertainty surrounding the current path of U.S. monetary policy, with potential significant discrepancies between market expectations and actual decisions as the December FOMC meeting approaches [1] - Global financial markets will closely monitor subsequent economic data and signals from Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1]

美国9月就业报告强于预期，引发市场对美国货币政策鹰派预期，促黄金、白银价格走弱。当日全球股 市强劲上涨也抑制了避险金属买盘兴趣。 美国劳工部20日发布的9月就业报告显示，美国9月份非农就业人数增加11.9万人，远高于此前预期的5 万人增幅。整体失业率从8月份的4.3%小幅上升至4.4%。劳工部此前表示，由于数据不足，将取消发布 10月份就业报告，部分10月份就业数据将被纳入美联储12月10日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议决 议后发布的报告中。此举促使交易员下调了对美联储12月降息25个基点的预期。 19日发布的10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要也略显鹰派，许多美联储官员认为，在2025年 剩余时间维持美国利率不变可能是合适的。但是，也有"一些与会者"表示，如果经济在下次会议前"发 展情况与他们的预期基本一致"，那么在12月再次降息"很可能是合适的"。鉴于委员会内部在通胀和失 业哪个对美国经济构成更大威胁的问题上仍存在分歧，这份纪要凸显了美联储下个月降息的不确定性。 新华财经纽约11月20日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价 20日下跌6.1美元，收于每盎 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government ended its "shutdown," which boosted market risk appetite, but uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy has increased [1] - Concerns over the overvaluation of technology stocks led to a significant decline in major U.S. stock indices, marking the worst single-day performance in over a month [1] Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices had mixed results over the week: the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.34%, and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.08% [1]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook anticipates persistent high inflation in the U.S. over the next year due to the impact of tariff policies on the economy [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is affecting corporate pricing strategies, with some companies reducing inventory at lower prices before cost increases [3] - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as appropriate, but the balance between rising inflation risks and a weakening labor market is a concern [5] Group 1 - Cook indicated that tariffs are increasing costs for U.S. businesses, which may keep inflation elevated in the coming year [3] - She noted that interactions with business leaders suggest that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not fully materialized [3] - Cook is prepared to take strong action if the effects of tariffs are larger or more prolonged than expected [3] Group 2 - The ongoing federal government shutdown is expected to exert pressure on economic activity this quarter and may have spillover effects on the private sector [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates again reflects a belief that the downside risks to employment outweigh the upside risks to inflation [5] - Cook emphasized that future monetary policy is not on a predetermined path, leaving the December rate decision uncertain [5]