美国与委内瑞拉之间不断升级的紧张局势推动了避险资金流入。同时，美联储领导层变动相关进展也受 到市场密切关注，美国总统特朗普多次呼吁降息，引发了对美联储独立性的质疑。特朗普周三表 示："我将很快宣布下一任美联储主席人选，此人主张大幅降息。"上周他透露，倾向于任命白宫经济顾 问凯文.哈西特或前美联储理事凯文.沃什担任该职务；有媒体周二还报道，美联储理事克里斯托弗.沃勒 将接受该职位的面试。沃勒周三则表示，政策制定者并不急于大幅宽松政策，认为在通胀仍高于目标的 情况下，美联储可以谨慎推进，利率可能逐步降至中性水平(他估计较当前水平低50-100个基点)。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货多头的下一目标是推动期价收盘站上关键阻力位——合约历史高点4433.00美元；空头的短 期目标则是打压期价跌破关键技术支撑位4200.00美元。第一阻力位看向4433.00美元，进一步阻力位在 4450.00美元；第一支撑位为今日低点4338.00美元，进一步支撑位是本周低点4297.40美元。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，2025年12月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.7%，创下7月以来的最低 水平，不仅低于3.1%的 ...

Group 1 - The dollar is trading steadily as investors await the release of U.S. inflation data for November, marking the first reading since the government shutdown ended last month [1] - The month-on-month changes for November will not be available due to missing October data caused by the shutdown, with the data set to be released at 8:30 a.m. [1] Group 2 - U.S. weekly jobless claims data will be closely monitored, indicating a focus on labor market conditions [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that interest rates remain too high for a slowing jobs market, suggesting potential implications for monetary policy [2] - Reports indicate that President Donald Trump is interviewing Waller for the Fed Chair position, which could influence future Federal Reserve decisions [2]

摘要周三（12月17日）亚市午后盘，贵金属继续冲高，铂主力合约日内涨幅扩大至6.00%，现报522.70 元/克。现货铂金涨逾3%，至1909.15美元/盎司。沪银主力合约日内涨超5.00%，现报15512元/千克。沪 金主力合约涨0.56%，报981.12元/克。 周三（12月17日）亚市午后盘，贵金属期货牛市火力全开，铂主力合约日内涨幅扩大至6.00%，现报 522.70元/克。现货铂金涨逾3%，至1909.15美元/盎司。沪银主力合约日内涨超5.00%，现报15512元/千 克。沪金主力合约涨0.56%，报981.12元/克。 地缘政治紧张局势也为金价提供了支撑。美国总统特朗普周二下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁 油轮，并将委内瑞拉政权认定为外国恐怖组织，此举可能显著加剧美委紧张关系。同时，俄乌冲突持 续，俄罗斯方面表示暂无停火意愿，因为停火只会给乌克兰一个喘息之机，使其更好地为继续战争做好 准备，并坚决反对北约军队在乌克兰部署。 投资者正密切关注即将公布的美国通胀数据，包括周四的11月消费者物价指数（CPI）以及周五发布的 美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，以寻找未来货币政策 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月16日，COMEX黄金盘中走高，报收4332.2美元/盎司，跌幅0.07%。国内SHFE金夜盘价格先涨后 跌，报收974.22元/克，跌幅0.14%。 根据昨晚美国劳工部数据，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人，但制造业就业 人数已降至2022年3月以来最低水平；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高，不过失 业率的上行同步伴随劳动参与率的上行；10月非农就业大幅减少10.5万人；8月和9月也合计下修3.3万 人；11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增速，实际薪资增长正在减速。从就业数据端 显示出相对偏弱的趋势，但市场仍未能就数据达成对于美联储的降息共同预期，黄金波动幅度加大。 本周四晚将公布美国11月CPI数据，关注通胀数据对降息预期的进一步指引。另外，日央行会议临近， 市场谨慎对待，料短期黄金仍处于震荡走势。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 撰稿：史玥明 从业资格：F03097365 交易咨询资格：Z0017563 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信 ...

12月5日：上交易日周四（12月4日）：国际黄金又触底回升收线，使近日走势保持震荡波动，同时也暗 示后市仍有再度走强的预期。下方关注10日及中轨线等均线支撑，仍是看涨入场的机会。 再加上，美联储也即将换任更加鸽派的主席，都将支撑明年的更加宽松的降息前景。 再加上从长期支撑因素来看，全球央行购金需求依然强劲。地缘政治紧张局势摇摆不定等，都为黄金提 供了坚实的支撑基础。所以，金价未来一年左右，仍有进一步的牛市行情。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4203.37美元/盎司，先行走低，于午间时段录得日内低点4175.18美元，之 后触底震荡回升，延续至美盘后半段微幅刷新亚盘高点录得日高点4219.33美元，最终有所回撤，收于 4208.64美元，日振幅44.15美元，收涨5.27美元，涨幅0.125%。 影响上，虽然日内延续周三回撤压力，以及近期的观望情绪和下周等待公布的重磅数据而维持震荡调 整，并且，美国初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，创三年新低，打压金价走低，但受到降息预期，以及买 盘支撑，再加上市场在等待关键的美国通胀数据，以研判美联储下周的政策前景。而呈现出多空因素拉 锯的格局。 展望今日周五（12月5日）：国际 ...

原油最新行情趋势分析： 市场上面永远是有两种声音的，一种告诉你后市会跌;另一种是在告诉你，后市会涨。没有哪天市场上会统一的看涨或者看跌。因为那样的话，市场上就只 有一种人了，全部赚钱的或者全部亏损的，这样不符合市场定律。所以下单后，不要去想着市场上别人如何评论后市的涨跌，因为那样方向不一的言论会动 摇你的下单依据，会让你不知道是继续持仓还是趁早离场。或许看到和自己一样离场的言论，那么就会觉得很有信心，肯定会赚大钱，但是方向不一致的时 候，就觉得特别的紧张，或许在这样紧张的心态下做出错误的判断和决定!不要做出无法控制的操作，降低风险是首要! 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周五(北京时间12月5日)欧市早盘，现货黄金交投于4225.50美元/盎司附近，金价周四基本持稳，呈现出多空因素拉锯的格局。市场在等待 美国通胀数据，以研判美联储下周的政策前景;本周金价高位窄幅震荡，尽管面临美国国债收益率上升和美元反弹的双重压力，但中长线逢低买盘的强劲支 撑，以及市场对美联储政策前景的期待，让黄金市场保持了相对稳定的态势。尤其是随着美国9月个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数报告的即将公布，投资者们正 屏息以待，这份美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, influenced by recent U.S. economic data and upcoming inflation reports, with prices currently around $4205 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices are under pressure due to a three-year low in U.S. initial jobless claims, but are supported by interest rate cut expectations and buying interest [1]. - The market is awaiting key U.S. inflation data to assess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, which is expected to influence gold prices [1]. - Current trading conditions indicate a potential for gold prices to rise to $4260 or higher if inflation pressures ease, while a contrary outcome may lead to further price adjustments [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily gold price remains supported by moving averages, indicating a strong market position without signs of weakness [2]. - The Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe show a narrowing range, with upper and lower limits at $4230 and $4180, respectively, while key levels to watch are $4265 above and $4150 below [2]. - The overall trend remains bullish as long as prices stay above $4150, with a potential new upward movement if prices can stabilize above $4250 [2].

上交易日周四(12月4日)：国际黄金又触底回升收线，使近日走势保持震荡波动，同时也暗示后市仍有 再度走强的预期。下方关注10日及中轨线等均线支撑，仍是看涨入场的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4203.37美元/盎司，先行走低，于午间时段录得日内低点4175.18美元，之 后触底震荡回升，延续至美盘后半段微幅刷新亚盘高点录得日高点4219.33美元，最终有所回撤，收于 4208.64美元，日振幅44.15美元，收涨5.27美元，涨幅0.125%。 影响上，虽然日内延续周三回撤压力，以及近期的观望情绪和下周等待公布的重磅数据而维持震荡调 整，并且，美国初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，创三年新低，打压金价走低，但受到降息预期，以及买 盘支撑，再加上市场在等待关键的美国通胀数据，以研判美联储下周的政策前景。而呈现出多空因素拉 锯的格局。 展望今日周五(12月5日)：国际黄金开盘先行偏弱运行，受到昨日美元指数的收涨暂止跌的的压力，但 金价仍维持在中轨上方，美元指数也处于布林带下行通道，以及200日均线阻力下方，前景仍偏弱，故 此，对于金价来说，仍是偏向利好和对于金价的回落也仍是入场看涨机会。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - From November 17th to November 21st, the US September non - farm data showed an unexpected increase in new employment but a higher unemployment rate. The US dollar index rose weekly, and global and domestic stocks, bonds, and commodities all declined to varying degrees. In general, in terms of US - dollar valuation, bonds > commodities > stocks. Investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][6][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities All Declined - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts and the increasing concerns about AI, global major stock markets generally declined. The Asia - Pacific region had the largest decline, and emerging markets performed worse than developed markets. The VIX index rose significantly weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The September non - farm data failed to eliminate the differences among Fed officials, increasing the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds declined, and the yield of the 10 - year US bond fell by 8BP to 4.06% weekly. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > national bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The game between the large - scale fiscal stimulus policy and the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy caused market concerns. The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The US dollar index rose 0.87% weekly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The US proposed a "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the possible framework agreement between Russia and Ukraine led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices. Precious metal prices continued to consolidate at high levels. The prices of major agricultural products rose, and non - ferrous metal prices generally declined [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks and Commodities Declined, and the Bond Market Fluctuated - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: Affected by the overseas market, major broad - based A - share indexes generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chip stocks were relatively resilient. In terms of sectors, power equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, etc. saw large declines. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9% weekly [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: From November 17th to November 21st, the central bank's net investment in the open market was 43.4 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively tight. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Overall, credit bonds > corporate bonds > national bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals had the largest decline [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Release of US Inflation Data - Recently, investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][26].

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, but structural issues remain, suggesting that the improvement may not be sustained into October [1][3]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data Overview - Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, exceeding the expected 50,000, with revisions showing July's data adjusted down from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to -4,000 [1]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and healthcare services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), accounting for about 90% of total job additions [1]. - Other sectors like manufacturing and professional services experienced job losses [1]. Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [2]. - Household survey data indicated an increase of 251,000 in employment, while labor supply grew by 472,000 [2]. Wage Growth and Market Expectations - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3% [2]. - The annualized rate of wage growth over six months decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, while year-on-year growth remained at 3.8% [2]. - Following the data release, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [2]. Future Employment Outlook - Despite the marginal improvement in September, the employment situation may not continue to improve into October, as initial jobless claims have stabilized but continued claims are rising [3]. - The ADP employment data for October suggests job additions remain below 50,000, and job vacancy data from Indeed continues to decline [3]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with probabilities dropping from nearly 100% to around 40% due to comments from Federal Reserve officials expressing concerns about inflation [4]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for October will not be released due to government shutdown, making September's data the only reference for the Fed's December meeting [5]. - The overall direction for rate cuts in the coming year remains clear, with expectations for at least three more cuts based on current economic conditions [5].