Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to maintain high-level volatility in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the core direction of fluctuation depends on the final decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 18th, the guidance of US inflation data, and the speed of domestic inventory depletion [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Daily Market Summary Market Data Changes - On September 9th, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly by 90 yuan to 79,740 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The spot premium continued to weaken, with the premium of premium copper dropping from 190 yuan/ton on September 8th to 125 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowing from 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount widened to 81.07 dollars/ton, highlighting the pressure of loose overseas spot supply [1] - On September 8th, the LME copper open interest increased by 1,928 lots to over 290,000 lots. However, with the high price of SHFE copper, domestic spot trading volume was suppressed, and downstream procurement remained cautious, lacking continuous short - term drivers [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industry Chain - Supply: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia suspended mining operations due to a sudden ore outburst accident, which may disturb market sentiment in the short term. China's imports of unforged copper in August decreased month - on - month to 425,000 tons, reflecting the slowdown of import demand in the off - season, but the release of smelter capacity still supported sufficient supply of electrolytic copper [2] - Demand: High copper prices suppressed the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory. The spot premium of electrolytic copper in North China continued to weaken. Orders in the power, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were seasonally weak. Coupled with the accumulation of high - price copper product inventory, terminal procurement was mostly for rigid demand, and the demand side lacked continuous stimulation [2] - Inventory: Global visible inventories were differentiated. On September 8th, LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, reaching a new high in nearly a month; SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 550 tons to 155,000 tons, still at a high level this year. The overall inventory pressure was not relieved, and the spot de - stocking rhythm was slow [2] Market Summary - The Indonesian mine accident on the supply side may briefly boost market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. On the demand side, high prices suppress restocking, and the weakening of the spot discount restricts the rebound space. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the decline of the US dollar index on the macro - level provide support for copper prices, but market caution has increased before the release of CPI data [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM:1 copper on September 9th was 79,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.01%. The premium of premium copper decreased by 65 yuan to 125 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 34.21%. The premium of flat - water copper decreased by 20 yuan to 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The premium of wet - process copper decreased by 10 yuan to - 40 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 33.33%. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened [5] - The SHFE copper price on September 9th was 79,740 yuan/ton, a rise of 90 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0.11%. The LME copper price rose slightly. The LME copper inventory increased by 155 tons to 19,081 tons, with a change rate of 0.82%. The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,275 tons, with a change rate of - 0.35% [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes various data charts such as China PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long open interest analysis, SHFE copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][10][12]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices surged to a record high of $3,674.70 per ounce, driven by a 92% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1] - Silver struggled below $41.67, showing a bearish trend due to weak industrial confidence, despite expectations of a dovish Fed stance [1] - Platinum fell from $1,438.30 and is currently testing a key support level at $1,367.60, near the 50-day moving average [1] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 for the year ending in March, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000 [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, maintained its holdings at 979.68 tons, indicating stable demand despite market volatility [2] - The Fed's rate cut pace remains uncertain, with expectations of gradual cuts of 25 basis points until rates reach a target range of 3.0% to 3.5% [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Precious Metals - The spot gold price has rebounded, having previously accumulated gains and absorbed an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) [3] - Silver is consolidating below the key resistance level of $41.67, with potential upward movement towards $44.22 if it closes above this level [4] - The recent support levels for silver are at $40.40 and $39.88, while the gold-silver ratio continues to rise, confirming gold's leading position [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its relationship with **U.S. economic indicators**, particularly focusing on interest rate expectations and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Drivers**: The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts due to weaker economic data, particularly non-farm payrolls, and manageable inflation risks [2][3][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The market has largely priced in a rate cut in September, with expectations of 2-3 cuts by the end of the year, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to 3% by the end of 2025 [3][27]. 3. **Employment Market Analysis**: The decline in non-farm payrolls does not necessarily indicate an impending recession; it reflects a complex interplay of factors including economic slowdown, declining labor participation, and increased AI investments [5][10][11]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: Oil prices are identified as the primary driver of U.S. inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to decline due to base effects and falling prices in key categories like used cars and rent [15][17][23]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical tensions have historically influenced gold prices, but their impact is currently diminishing as the market stabilizes [37]. 6. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are expected to continue increasing their gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification strategies [31][35]. 7. **ETF Influence**: The relationship between gold prices and ETF holdings is significant; as U.S. Treasury yields decline, ETF purchases of gold are likely to increase, further supporting gold prices [32][42]. 8. **Speculative Indicators**: Speculative long positions in gold can provide some insights into price movements, but their reliability is limited, especially at market peaks [34][36]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Labor Market Trends**: The U.S. labor market is characterized by a "three lows" balance (low hiring, low employment, low unemployment), which is crucial for maintaining economic stability [11][12]. 2. **Future Economic Outlook**: The potential for a global monetary easing environment could benefit both stocks and gold, although stocks may outperform in such scenarios [41]. 3. **Risks to Gold Market**: Potential risks include short-term volatility around the September FOMC meeting and geopolitical developments that could alter central bank purchasing behavior [40][43]. 4. **Long-term Economic Indicators**: The inversion of the nominal GDP and federal funds rate suggests a need for rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures, historically indicating a recession [28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the interconnectedness of economic indicators, interest rate policies, and gold market dynamics, providing a nuanced understanding of current trends and future expectations.

此番表态正值全球央行年会召开之际，市场密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔即将发表的演讲，期待从中获取关于利率政策走向的线索。今年以来，由于关税政策 对经济影响存在不确定性，美联储一直维持利率稳定。古尔斯比作为联邦公开市场委今年拥有投票权的成员，其观点受到市场格外重视。 就在古尔斯比发表评论的同时，其他联储官员也表达了各自的观点。波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯在另一次采访中暗示，如果劳动力市场状况恶化程度超过 通胀风险上升幅度，九月份降息可能是合适的选择。这一表态与古尔斯比的谨慎立场形成微妙对比，反映出美联储内部正在就政策走向进行深入讨论。 分析人士认为，当前美国经济正处于复杂阶段。一方面就业市场保持相对稳健，另一方面通胀走势出现新的不确定性。古尔斯比此前曾表示，经济前景仍然 复杂，美联储需要等待更多数据才能做出利率调整决策。这种审慎态度在美联储决策者中具有一定代表性。 芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比近日在杰克逊霍尔年会期间表示，尽管近期美国多数通胀指标呈现向好趋势，但最新数据中出现的服务业通胀意 外飙升值得警惕。他指出，这一变化可能独立于关税政策的影响，并将其描述为一个"危险的数据点"，同时表示希望这仅是暂时现象。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed performance on August 15, with Shanghai gold main contract priced at 777.92 CNY per gram, up 0.21%, and Shanghai silver main contract at 9293.00 CNY per kilogram, up 0.85% [1] - International precious metals had varied results, with COMEX gold priced at 3408.10 USD per ounce, up 0.03%, while COMEX silver was at 38.05 USD per ounce, up 0.03% [1] - On the same day, domestic precious metal futures turned negative, with Shanghai gold main contract at 775.72 CNY per gram, down 0.41%, and Shanghai silver at 9209.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.21% [1] Group 2 - The opening prices for August 15 included Shanghai gold at 776.90 CNY per gram and Shanghai silver at 9242.00 CNY per kilogram, with respective highs of 777.32 CNY and 9262.00 CNY [2] - COMEX gold opened at 3383.20 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 3394.80 USD, while COMEX silver opened at 38.03 USD per ounce, peaking at 38.12 USD [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve's Daly expressed opposition to a 50 basis point rate cut in September, citing concerns over signaling urgency and lack of justification for aggressive cuts [3] - Current CME FedWatch data indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with a 55.2% chance of cumulative cuts reaching 50 basis points by October [3] - On August 14, COMEX gold fell by 0.76% to 3382.30 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold dropped 0.55% to 774.54 CNY per gram, amid higher-than-expected PPI data from the US [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpectedly high US inflation data released last night and the Fed officials' cautious stance on interest rate cuts have put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2][3]. - The much - higher - than - expected PPI data in July shows that Trump's tariff policy has significantly affected US prices. Fed officials' statements around the data release were generally hawkish [3]. - Despite the current resilience of US inflation data, due to factors such as US debt interest payments and Trump administration intervention, the Fed will implement a further easing cycle. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider buying on dips after the price stabilizes. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Changes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.55% to 774.54 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 1.31% to 9197.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 0.12% to 3379.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.12% to 38.03 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21 [2]. - In the comparison of recent trading days, various precious - metal - related products showed different price and volume changes, such as Au(T + D) rising 0.05% to 775.10 yuan/gram, and London Gold falling 0.61% to 3343.85 dollars/ounce [4]. US Economic Data - In July, the US PPI year - on - year value was 3.3%, much higher than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The month - on - month value was 0.9%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0% [3]. Trading Suggestions - Given the current market situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the precious metal prices stabilize after a correction, consider buying on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Tables and Graphs - Multiple data tables presented detailed information on precious - metal prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories in different markets and time periods, such as the COMEX and SHFE gold and silver markets [6]. - There are also various graphs showing the relationships between precious - metal prices, US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and price spreads of precious metals [8][11][21].

Market Overview - The domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with notable drops in soybean meal over 2%, and declines in soybean oil, Shanghai silver, and Shanghai nickel exceeding 1% [1] - On the upside, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 1%, while SC crude oil, coke, and soda ash saw nearly 1% increases [1] Contract Performance - The latest data shows that the LPG contract (2509M) is at 3879, with a 1.23% increase, while the soybean meal contract (2601M) is down 2.66% at 2568 [2] - Other contracts such as pure soda (2601M) and lithium carbonate (2511M) also showed slight increases of 0.79% and 0.66% respectively [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July was reported at 3.3%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, marking the highest level since February [2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 55.2% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by October [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, bringing rates down to a range of 3% to 3.25% from the current 4.25% to 4.50% [1] - The recent inflation report indicated a modest increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with a 0.2% rise in July following a 0.3% increase in June, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - The decline in gasoline prices by 2.2% contributed to the moderate decrease in the CPI, while food prices remained unchanged after two months of 0.3% increases [1] Group 2 - The U.S. interest rate futures market indicated a 93.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with a 6% chance of a 50 basis point cut, a significant increase from 3% earlier in the day [1][2] - Traders are now anticipating a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points for the year, up from about 60 basis points the previous week [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen suggested that a 50 basis point cut could be possible due to recent poor employment data, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points [3] - Yellen's comments reflect a tendency of the Trump administration to publicly criticize and provide detailed policy suggestions to the independent central bank [3]

比特币周三携手美股创下历史新高，显示投资者在全球风险资产狂欢中进一步加码押注。 这一同步走势凸显了投机性市场领域与主流股市在同一乐观情绪的推动下齐头并进。本周公布的美国通 胀数据符合预期，加强了市场对于美联储9月降息的押注。金融环境的放松将鼓励资金从蓝筹股流向波 动性更高的加密货币。 "加密货币与股市呈正相关关系，其中以太币与股市的关联性强于比特币"，Ergonia研究主管Chris Newhouse表示，"整体市场情绪看起来积极。" 来源：金融界 比特币在周三纽约晚间交易时段升破12.35万美元，超过了7月14日创下的123,205.12美元的历史纪录。 标普500指数周三收盘连续第二个交易日创下新高，延续了整个夏季的强劲走势。 比特币持续上涨，得益于特朗普政府为加密资产营造的有利立法环境。并且Strategy等公司"囤积比特 币"的策略日益流行，这一企业策略近期也蔓延到以太币等其他加密货币，带动数字资产整体上涨。 ...

Market Overview - U.S. futures pointed to new highs before the market opened, driven by recent inflation data that bolstered hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased by 0.3%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs on Tuesday [3] Economic Factors - Market gains were partly attributed to relief over a potential trade truce between President Trump and China, alongside optimism regarding lower borrowing costs in the U.S. [4] - A rate cut would make borrowing cheaper, potentially boosting investment and reducing costs for households and businesses [4] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious, concerned that Trump's tariff policies could reignite high inflation [5] Corporate Developments - Gildan Activewear announced a $2.2 billion acquisition of HanesBrands, which will give HanesBrands shareholders nearly 20% of the new company [6] - Following acquisition rumors, HanesBrands' stock fell over 9% in pre-market trading after a 28% rise on Tuesday [7] Asian Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo rose by 1.3%, continuing its upward trend after reaching a new high [8] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong surged by 2.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.5% [8] - South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 1.1%, and Taiwan's index gained 0.9% [10][11] European Market Performance - In Europe, the DAX index in Germany rose by 0.9%, and the CAC 40 index in Paris increased by 0.6% [12] Energy Market - U.S. benchmark crude oil prices fell by $0.52 to $62.65 per barrel, while Brent crude prices dropped by $0.44 to $65.68 per barrel [13] Currency Exchange - The USD/JPY exchange rate decreased from 147.84 to 147.51, while the EUR/USD rate increased from 1.1677 to 1.1713 [14]