1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness and LME spot strength, with prices expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum market has positive drivers from overseas low - inventory and strong spot supply - demand, and is expected to remain relatively strong [4][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is supported by cost and supply disturbances, and is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, with increased short - term volatility [10][12]. - The zinc price is also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a significant price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference, and it's recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - The nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and short - term waiting is recommended [16]. - The lithium carbonate price has a high risk of correction, and it's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach [18][19]. - For alumina, it's recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [21][22]. - The stainless steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper 3M fell slightly by 0.12% to $13,156 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,540 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 4,325 tons to 141,550 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 122,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite high copper prices suppressing consumption and inventory accumulation pressure in China, the tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 105,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum closed slightly up 0.16% at $3,196 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,780 yuan per ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 21,000 to 771,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 101,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 494,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With weak US inflation data, the market sentiment is slightly positive. Although there is inventory accumulation pressure in China, overseas factors and domestic downstream start - up and export expectations are positive for aluminum prices. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,400 - 25,000 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,160 - $3,230 per ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main casting aluminum alloy contract AD2603 fell 0.75% to 23,165 yuan per ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 27,600 lots, with a trading volume of 31,300 lots. Warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,800 tons. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 200 to 43,900 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supported by cost and supply disturbances, and with average demand, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.66% to 17,348 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $2,054 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan per ton. SHFE lead futures inventory was 21,000 tons, and LME lead inventory was 221,500 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. The current price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and short - term volatility will increase [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.45% to 24,275 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose $21 to $3,202.5 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,330 yuan per ton. SHFE zinc futures inventory was 33,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. It has a large potential for price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.64% to 379,330 yuan per ton. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, but the willingness to start work in Yunnan is insufficient, and Jiangxi's production is low. The SMM tin ingot social inventory decreased by 1,042 tons to 7,478 tons last week [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference. It's recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The SHFE nickel main contract fell 3.99% to 138,450 yuan per ton. The spot premium of various brands was strong. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price was also stable [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is still a large surplus pressure on nickel. The increase in inventory restricts price increases, but domestic liquidity support exists. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 6.78% to 163,427 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed up 7% at 166,980 yuan [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by bullish sentiment, but there is a high risk of correction. It's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 161,600 - 174,000 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 2.86% to 2,772 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan to 2,590 yuan per ton, at a discount to the main contract. Overseas FOB price was stable at $308 per ton, with an import loss of 84 yuan per ton. Futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,400 to 166,600 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and there are difficulties in continuous rebound. It's recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13,790 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. Spot prices in some markets increased slightly. Raw material prices rose, and social inventory decreased by 2.97% to 948,300 tons [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. With stable cost support, low supply, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [25].

最新的美国通胀数据显示价格压力正逐步缓和，这在数据公布后的第一时间给投资者带来了一定安慰；但随 着交易时段推进，三大指数纷纷跳水。 摩根大通股价近下跌3%，原因是投行业务手续费收入不及其自身指引，其中承销与并购顾问两块业务的收入 均出现下滑。另外，摩根大通警告，特朗普提出将信用卡利率设定10%上限的主张，对其业务带来"重大调 整"的风险，并将对这家美国最大银行及其客户带来伤害。 有分析师表示："今天核心CPI低于预期，但不太可能改变美联储对1月会议的判断。在失业率仍处低位、经济 增速高于趋势水平、财政刺激形成对冲，且通胀仍高于目标的情况下，美联储可以很从容地在本月维持利率 不变，并且很可能在接下来几次会议上继续按兵不动。" 分析师Bret Kenwell认为，12月CPI数据与预期一致，或不足以推动美联储转向更激进的降息立场。但随着就 业环境持续降温，通胀在利率政策上的约束可能没有那么强。 【导读】特朗普的一举一动，又开始影响全球市场表现 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现，本来美股盘前有通胀数据降温的利好，但是正式开盘之后，三大指 数跳水，紧接着石油价格跳涨。泰勒找了一圈原因，结果发现，根源就在，特朗普身上 ...

【导读】美国最新通胀数据，强化了交易员对美联储6月降息的预期 剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，同样与11月一致。 经济学家此前预计，去年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI同比上涨2.8%。 从环比来看，经季节调整后，12月CPI上涨0.3%，符合经济学家的预期。核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于 经济学家预期的0.3%。 劳工部称，12月多个与家庭开支密切相关的项目价格明显上涨，例如食品杂货和外出就餐，住房成本、 交通服务以及医疗护理费用也在12月加速上行。相对而言，汽油价格以及二手车、二手卡车价格出现下 降。 最新的报告也标志着数月来首次对通胀趋势进行"完整体检"。由于去年秋季美国政府停摆，劳工部无法 进行线下价格采集，只能在此前的通胀报告中用技术性方法补齐缺失数据。 大家好，简单关注一下美国的最新CPI数据，将影响美联储的降息路径。 经济学家认为，一个月前公布的11月通胀数据可能被"人为压低"。他们提醒说，本次公布的12月数据可 能会对11月被低估的部分进行一定"回补"。（劳工统计局表示，其已尽力处理价格数据缺口。） 市场普遍预计，美联储将在本月晚些时候的会议上维持利率不变。官 ...

剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，同样与11月一致。 经济学家此前预计，去年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI同比上涨2.8%。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中国基金报 【导读】美国最新通胀数据，强化了交易员对美联储6月降息的预期 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下美国的最新CPI数据，将影响美联储的降息路径。 1月13日晚间，美国劳工部周二表示，去年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与去年11月持 平。 从环比来看，经季节调整后，12月CPI上涨0.3%，符合经济学家的预期。核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，低于 经济学家预期的0.3%。 劳工部称，12月多个与家庭开支密切相关的项目价格明显上涨，例如食品杂货和外出就餐，住房成本、 交通服务以及医疗护理费用也在12月加速上行。相对而言，汽油价格以及二手车、二手卡车价格出现下 降。 最新的报告也标志着数月来首次对通胀趋势进行"完整体检"。由于去年秋季美国政府停摆，劳工部无法 进行线下价格采集，只能在此前的通胀报告中用技术性方法补齐缺失数据。 经济学家认为，一个月前公 ...

【导读】美国最新通胀数据， 强化了交易员对美联储6月降息的预期 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，简单关注一下美国的最新CPI数据，将影响美联储的降息路径。 1月13日晚间， 美国劳工部周二表示，去年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与 去年11月持平。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，同样与11月一致。 经济学家此前预计，去年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI同比上涨2.8%。 从环比来看，经季节调整后，12月CPI上涨0.3%，符合经济学家的预期。核心CPI环比上涨 0.2%，低于经济学家预期的0.3%。 劳工部称，12月多个与家庭开支密切相关的项目价格明显上涨，例如食品杂货和外出就餐， 住房成本、交通服务以及医疗护理费用也在12月加速上行。相对而言，汽油价格以及二手 车、二手卡车价格出现下降。 最新的报告也标志着数月来首次对通胀趋势进行"完整体检"。由于去年秋季美国政府停摆， 劳工部无法进行线下价格采集，只能在此前的通胀报告中用技术性方法补齐缺失数据。 经济学家认为，一个月前公布的11月通胀数据可能被"人为压低"。他们提醒说，本次公布的 12月数据可能会对11月被 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that UK government bond yields have risen, reversing the decline seen on Monday, with a focus on upcoming US inflation data that may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] - The 10-year UK government bond yield increased by approximately 2 basis points, currently reported at 4.396% [1] - On Monday, the 10-year bond yield had dropped to 4.372%, marking the lowest level since April [1] Group 2 - Market attention is on US inflation data, which could indicate the potential path for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may reduce the likelihood of recent interest rate cuts [1]

比特币在美国股市隔夜收高后小幅上涨，因投资者基本上未理会特朗普政府对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔(Jerome Powell)展开刑事调查所引发的对美联储独立性的担忧。几位共和党议员反对该调查，参议员 汤姆·蒂利斯誓言要阻止所有美联储提名。现在的焦点转向美国通胀数据，以寻找美联储下一次降息时 机的线索。根据伦敦证券交易所集团的数据，比特币上涨0.9%，至91,830美元。然而，在缺乏任何可推 动该加密货币大幅走高的明确利好催化剂的情况下，其继续在相对窄幅的区间内交投。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a significant increase in holdings to 1,070.8 tons, reflecting a rise of 6.24 tons from the previous trading day, amid heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 12, spot gold prices surged, reaching a historical high of $4,629.93 per ounce before closing at $4,597.21, marking an increase of $87.87 or 1.95% [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly regarding an investigation into Chairman Powell's statements about the Fed's renovation project [5]. - Silver also experienced a strong performance, hitting a record high of $84.62 per ounce, driven by similar market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data eased expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, limiting the upside potential for precious metals [6]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, leading to a consensus that a rate cut in January is unlikely, although two cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year, with the first likely in June [6]. - Market reactions to upcoming inflation data could influence gold prices, with a hotter reading potentially exerting downward pressure, while a softer reading may support further price increases [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum, confirming a bullish trend, with the price maintaining an upward channel over the past month [7]. - The MACD indicator remains in positive territory, indicating increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI is in the overbought zone, which may limit short-term gains [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,625, with a successful breakout potentially leading to further price increases, while support is established at $4,400 [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is also in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][35] 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. Last week, gold oscillated upwards under multiple positive factors. Geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut were the core driving forces, and continuous gold purchases by global central banks provided long - term support. However, attention should be paid to the possible delay of the interest rate cut rhythm due to US inflation data and the risk of the extinction of the safe - haven premium caused by the easing of the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 980 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 950 - 970 yuan/gram. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations [10] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 1011 - 1016 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 1000 - 1005 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations at high levels [11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents the trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][26] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Silver futures are in a strong upward trend and currently at the end. Last week, silver closed higher in a volatile "roller - coaster" market. It was pushed up by geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations at the beginning of the week, then sharply corrected due to the significant reduction of the silver weight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, and finally stabilized and rebounded. The market is characterized by high volatility due to the intense game between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the impact of US CPI data on the interest rate cut path and the liquidity recovery after the index rebalancing. It is recommended to wait and see [35] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2604 was operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and the lower support level at 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations [38] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The silver contract 2604 is operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 18,200 - 18,700 yuan and the lower support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations at high levels [39] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows the trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [46][49][51]

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation data for December is expected to be a significant focus for investors [1] - Investors are assessing the potential timing and magnitude of future interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]