来源：新民晚报 美联储新主席热门人选凯文·哈西特（左一）、凯文·沃什（中）和克里斯托弗·沃勒 图GJ 尽管美联储今年9月以来连续三次降息，本月10日又将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.5%至 3.75%之间，但美国总统特朗普想要的是"1%甚至更低"的联邦基金利率，以及让"不听话"的现任美联储 主席鲍威尔赶紧走人。 候选人还在考察中 在17日的电视讲话中，特朗普表示，他将很快宣布下一任美联储主席的提名人选，而此人将是一个认同 大幅降低利率的人。谁会接替鲍威尔？ 目前，国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、美联储前理事凯文·沃什，以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒被 认为是新任美联储主席的"决赛圈"选手。 凯文·哈西特在宾夕法尼亚大学获得经济学博士学位，曾任教于哥伦比亚商学院，担任过美联储理事会 经济学家，在保守派智库美国企业研究所工作多年，曾在特朗普第一任期内出任白宫经济顾问委员会主 席，如今担任美国国家经济委员会主任。漂亮的履历让他一度被认为是新任美联储主席的"种子选手"。 但对于市场而言，更为在意的则是美联储的独立性。柯静指出，一旦市场形成普遍预期，认为未来的美 联储主席在关键政策方向，尤其是降息问题上更容 ...

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $4,311.49, with a latest price of $4,320.16 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.26% [1] - The highest price reached was $4,336.33, while the lowest was $4,308.59, indicating a short-term sideways trend for gold [1] Group 2 - President Trump is interviewing "three to four" candidates for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman and expects to make a decision soon [2] - Trump emphasizes the need for the next Fed leader to actively lower interest rates to reduce mortgage costs, indicating he has a good idea of potential nominees [2][3] - The Fed has lowered the benchmark interest rate three times to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, but there are still dissenting opinions within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding further actions [3] Group 3 - International gold prices are under pressure due to recent adjustments and a rebound in the US dollar index, yet remain within a recovery channel [4] - Monthly analysis shows gold prices have rebounded, alleviating bearish signals from October, with a higher probability of breaking resistance levels [4] - Weekly analysis indicates gold prices are encountering resistance near historical highs, with potential for a pullback to support levels, but any retracement could be seen as a buying opportunity [4]

美国总统特朗普表示，他正在为美联储主席一职面试"三到四位"候选人，并预计将"很快"决定提名谁来 接替鲍威尔。 "我认为他们每个人都会是不错的选择，"特朗普说。 特朗普在《华尔街日报》的采访中呼吁应积极降息，称利率应降至"1%，甚至可能更低"。 美联储已于上周将其基准利率下调至3.5%至3.75%之间，这是连续三次会议中的第三次降息。三位美联 储官员对此次降息决定持反对意见，而联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）对于是否进一步降息仍存在分 歧。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：吴俊阳 特朗普表示，他不确定是否会在今年年底前宣布人选，但称决定将在"未来几周内"做出。 这位总统已多次表示，他希望美联储的下一任领导者能更积极地降息，以推动降低抵押贷款成本。他此 前曾暗示自己已心中有数，本月早些时候称对于提名谁已有"相当不错的想法"。 尽管如此，特朗普在周四还是对多位候选人给予了高度赞扬。当被问及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒 （Christopher Waller）时，他表示两人已于周三再次会面，并称赞他"很棒"。 "我的意思是，他在那里（美联储）已经很久了，"特朗普说。 特朗普也赞扬了美联储负责监管事务的副 ...

币界网12月17日讯，美劳工部发布数据显示，11月份非农就业人口增加64,000人，远低于市场预期的20 万人。这一爆冷结果瞬间搅动全球市场，全球资产集体进入刹车模式。美股三大指数小幅收跌，纳指和 科技股回调为主旋律，AI概念股延续抛售；美债波动率降至去年5月以来低点，十年期美债收益率仅小 幅下行0.5个基点，美元指数则录得四连跌，离岸人民币一度升破7.04关口。 一旦市场认为新任主席更像总统的延伸，而非相对独立的央行掌门，在未来通胀回升时可能缺乏足够决 心去加码紧缩，那么美债的长期收益率很可能提前用抬头反抗的方式表达不信任，最终让政府融资成本 高企，这与白宫希望维持低利率、稳增长的诉求，恰好形成反差。无论最后落槌的是哈塞特，还是沃 什，新一届美联储都将运行在更强的聚光灯之下，市场会用长端利率、通胀预期乃至美元走势，为这种 货币关系的新平衡开出价格。 对于比特币这种高度敏感的宏观资产而言，谁来担任下一任美联储主席，将影响市场对未来真实利率区 间、货币宽松边界以及美元周期的判断，而这些，最终都会在比特币的波动幅度和中长期趋势上，留下 清晰的回声。此时，XBIT Wallet比特币钱包深度集成宏观经济数据看板与政 ...

Joining us right now to talk about how today's jobs number impacts the Fed's rate plan, former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart. He's a professor at Georgia Tech. Good morning to you, sir.You saw the numbers. I don't know how much you take away from them at this point. How much you think even the Fed is looking at those numbers in terms of how it's going to impact their plans for 26 and beyond.>> Well, I agree with much of the commentary we heard earlier. I don't think this report changes much quite fr ...

这一变动的直接催化剂来自两个层面。首先，美国总统特朗普周五表示，他正在"两个Kevin"——即Kevin Warsh与白宫国家经济委员会主任 Kevin Hassett——之间倾向于选择鲍威尔的继任者。其次，周四华尔街最有权势的银行家之一、摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙在纽约的一场私密资产管 理CEO会议上明确表态：支持沃什执掌美联储。 特朗普圈定"两个Kevin" 摩根大通CEO戴蒙公开喊话"沃什将成为一位'伟大的主席'"后，这位前美联储理事正迅速成为下一届美联储主席的有力竞争者，他在预测市场的 获胜概率大幅飙升。 截至周六的最新数据显示，在Kalshi和Polymarket两个预测市场上，沃什被提名的概率分别跃升了17和24个百分点。这一显著变化表明，市场对 于美联储未来领导层构成的预期正在发生重大转变。 Kalshi预测市场的数据则更为直观，沃什与另一位热门人选哈塞特的获胜概率呈现此消彼长的态势，沃什获胜概率正在直线飙升，几乎就快追平 哈塞特；而后者正在直线下降，不过其50%的获胜概率仍然领先全场。 这表明，尽管沃什的胜算显著提高，但哈塞特的领先地位目前还算稳固。 此外，特朗普还认为下一任美联储主席应就利率政 ...

在特朗普的名单中，除了凯文·沃什、凯文·哈塞特之外，还有两位现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、米歇尔·鲍曼以及贝莱德集团固定收益首席投资官里克· 里德。 继哈赛特之后，新美联储主席的热门人选又有新变化。 近来，特朗普频繁谈起未来鲍威尔的继任者。 周五，特朗普称前美联储理事凯文·沃什已晋升为下一任美联储主席名单首位。 随即，市场对美联储新掌门人的预测开始大幅波动。 沃什 VS 哈塞特？ 当地时间周五，特朗普在被问及沃什是否是其首选时，得到了他肯定的回答。 特朗普指出，沃什在很大程度上同意他的货币政策立场。 不过，他也表示哈塞特依然很有竞争力。 老谋深算的特朗普直言：两个凯文都很棒。 近几个月来，哈塞特一直是市场预期的美联储主席的最热门候选人。 但随着投资者对特朗普最新信号的定价，市场对其胜算的预期开始大幅下滑。 当前，沃什的胜算从约15%跃升至40%。 而此前的"头号种子选手"、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特的概率从80%短暂降至60%以下。 不过随着鲍威尔任期在明年5月即将结束，特朗普着急换一位"听话"的新美联储主席，已经溢于言表了。 特别要强调的是，这几位都是主张大幅降息的，不过两个凯文眼下是最具有竞争力的。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with domestic refined copper spot imports remaining in a loss. The market anticipates that if the dovish Hassert is elected as the new Fed Chair, it will strengthen the market's dovish bets, but balancing monetary stimulus and inflation poses challenges. Domestically, attention is on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. In December, the estimated domestic electrolytic copper production is 1168800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. Due to high copper prices, terminal orders have slowed, and the market maintains rigid procurement demand. There are uncertainties about whether the price can continue to rebound as the off - season approaches and there is no sign of a rapid release of demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur; instead, there were new investments and复产 rhythms, leading to a significant correction in the futures market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand is gradually being fulfilled in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the matching of State Grid orders concludes, it is less likely for aluminum prices to reach a new high this year, and the upside space depends on the bulls' response to subsequent macro - dynamics [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory of primary nickel is under pressure, and the production in December is expected to increase month - on - month. Considering the cost support of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel at 110000 yuan/ton, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors' impact on maintaining an optimistic mood is uncertain. Microscopically, the shortage of concentrates supports copper's high valuation, but the lack of rapid demand release in the off - season makes price recovery uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: The non - occurrence of expected environmental production restrictions and new investments/复产 have led to a correction in the futures market. Aluminum prices have support, but the possibility of reaching a new high is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel - stainless steel industry chain is weak, while the new energy industry chain has tight raw materials. One can consider bottom - fishing with cost support but beware of risks [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 610 yuan/ton, and the inventory in some exchanges changed. For example, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased slightly, and the total inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8439 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 225 yuan/ton, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price decreased by 3500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [9][10][16]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [52]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, tracking the new energy industry chain and providing policy interpretations [53].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Bank of America Global Research predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, a shift from their previous expectation of maintaining rates [1][4][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 89.2% according to CME FedWatch [1][6] - The Fed is expected to further cut rates by 25 basis points in June and July 2026, bringing the terminal rate to 3.00%-3.25% [5] Group 2: Potential New Fed Chair - President Trump is expected to announce the new Fed chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett as a leading candidate [1][7] - Hassett's dovish stance on monetary policy aligns with Trump's calls for significant rate cuts to avoid recession risks [5][8] - Market reactions indicate confidence in Hassett's potential leadership, as long-term rates have declined following news of his candidacy [8]

另一边，美联储高层人事变动的悬念正逐步收紧。 特朗普在周二白宫内阁会议上明确表态，将于明年年初公布新美联储主席人选，这一时间表较此前财政 部长贝森特提及的 "圣诞节前后" 进一步清晰。 据特朗普透露，此前他与贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克协商后，曾圈定约10 名候选人，如今名单已大幅 精简至一人。 而在会议后的公开活动中，特朗普对白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特的一番 "暗戳戳" 表态，更 是将其推上热门人选宝座 ——"我猜这里也有一位潜在的美联储主席，他是个受人尊敬的人"。 周二美股市场再现结构性行情，三大指数集体收涨，科技股阵营却走出 "冰火两重天"。 道指最终收涨0.39%，标普500 微涨0.25%，纳指凭借科技股多数发力录得0.59%涨幅。 大型科技股中，英特尔一骑绝尘涨超8%，苹果、高通也迎来超1%的亮眼表现，Meta、亚马逊、英伟达 等巨头则以小幅上涨紧跟节奏；与之相反，AMD跌超2%、博通跌超1%，特斯拉也陷入小幅收跌的低 迷。 中概股市场则整体遇冷，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌0.65%。 尽管亚朵集团涨超5%、老虎证券涨超1%，理想、京东等少数个股勉强收涨，但多数标的难逃下跌魔 咒：小鹏汽车近乎 ...