如果特朗普选择沃勒，那么当席位空缺时，特朗普还可以安排另一位人选进入美联储理事会，并对美联 储进行更强的控制。 然而，在上周日美国司法部对鲍威尔进行刑事调查后，但对于任何一位候选人来说，接下来的路不会平 坦。下一任美联储主席的确认将笼罩在这一时刻的阴影之下：无论人选是谁，都将面临一场确认听证 会，届时参议员以及市场都会提出一个之前并不存在的问题：此人是否愿意像鲍威尔那样，为了履行职 责而冒着被起诉的风险？ 消息人士透露，这将是第四次也是最后一次面试接替美联储主席鲍威尔的候选人。鲍威尔的主席任期将 于5月15日结束。他于2017年由特朗普提名执掌美联储，并于2018年获得确认。 目前，除了里德尔之外，最终入围名单还包括前美联储理事凯文·沃什、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞 特以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。美联储理事鲍曼已不再是该职位的候选人。 特朗普表示，他将在1月做出最终选择。如果特朗普挑选的人选目前并非美联储理事会成员，那么此人 必须先进入美联储理事会。 此前，由特朗普提名的美联储理事米兰的任期将于1月31日届满，这将为特朗普提供所需的空缺名额。 米兰于去年9月宣誓就职，填补了阿德里亚娜·库格勒辞职后留下的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is experiencing its largest annual decline in eight years, with expectations that further interest rate cuts by the new Federal Reserve chair could lead to additional depreciation of the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen by 8.1% year-to-date [1]. - Following Trump's "liberation day" policy announcement in April, the dollar saw a significant drop, and the push for a dovish Federal Reserve chair has continued to pressure the dollar [1]. - Market expectations are pricing in at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, diverging from the policy paths of some developed economies, which further diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [1][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Leadership - The market's primary focus is on the Federal Reserve and who will succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May next year [2][5]. - Trump has indicated he has preferred candidates for the position but is not in a hurry to announce them, mentioning the possibility of dismissing the current chair [3][6]. - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is viewed as a leading candidate, with others like Kevin Walsh, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman also in consideration [3][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, aided by a moderate decline in eurozone inflation and upcoming large-scale defense spending in Europe, with minimal bets on European Central Bank rate cuts [4]. - In contrast, traders in Canada, Sweden, and Australia are betting on their central banks raising interest rates [4]. - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that after a brief recovery, dollar long positions have returned to a dominant bearish stance since April, reflecting concerns about the US economy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's potential plans regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating his dissatisfaction with current Chair Jerome Powell and hinting at possible changes in leadership [5][6][8]. Group 1: Trump's Intentions - Trump has a preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair but is not in a hurry to announce it, stating he will do so at the appropriate time [6][8]. - He has expressed a desire for Powell to resign and has considered firing him, reflecting ongoing criticism of Powell's leadership [6][9]. - The selection process for the new Chair includes candidates such as Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder, with Hassett being viewed as a leading contender [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates in its last three meetings, but officials indicated that only one rate cut might occur by 2026 [9]. - Trump is contemplating legal action against Powell for "serious misconduct" related to a current renovation project at the Federal Reserve [9]. - Powell's term as Chair ends in May 2026, but his term as a board member lasts until 2028, complicating Trump's ability to appoint a new member if Powell chooses to remain [10].

值得注意的是，特朗普曾就其关于新任美联储掌门人的决策过程发表过多次含糊，有时甚至自相矛盾的 前后不一言论。这位美国总统在12月早些时候曾表示，他已将美联储主席候选人范围缩小到仅仅一人， 但随后又称他在考虑多名候选人，并对候选短名单上的数个名字大加赞赏。 特朗普长期以来一直批评鲍威尔，而鲍威尔正是他在第一任期挑选来领导美联储的主席人选。这位美国 总统已多次表示，他非常希望下一任美联储主席更积极地推进降息进程，因为白宫希望大幅降低抵押贷 款成本来促进美国经济繁荣增长以及寻求在中期选举之年巩固自己的选票与支持率。 美联储在最近三次会议上均选择下调基准利率，但有美联储官员在12月暗示，他们很可能在2026年仅仅 选择降息一次。 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普暗示，他已有非常偏好的下一任美联储主席人选，但并不急于宣布。同时特朗 普还表示，他仍有可能会选择解雇现任美联储领导人杰罗姆.鲍威尔。 当被问及是否有最中意的美联储主席人选时，特朗普在周一的一场新闻发布会上表示："我有，仍然有 ——没有改变。""我会在合适的时候宣布他。时间还很充裕。" 特朗普还补充称，鲍威尔"应该立即辞职"，并且我"很想解雇他"。这位重返白宫的美国总统在7 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively retreated, with tin and nickel down by 0.99% and 0.86% respectively. Copper rose by 0.76%, aluminum by 0.83%, lead by 0.78%, and zinc by 0.54% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures fell sharply, hitting a limit down with a decline of 7.89% to 118,820 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon and polysilicon also saw declines of 0.68% and 4.84% respectively [1] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel dropped by 0.35%, while iron ore led gains with a rise of 2.58%. Rebar and hot-rolled coil had gains of less than 1% [1] - On the external market, copper rose by 3.17% and zinc by 0.81%, while tin and nickel saw minor declines [1] - Precious metals experienced declines, with COMEX gold down by 1.16% and silver by 2.28%. Domestic gold fell by 0.91%, while silver's gain narrowed to 0.51% [1] Platinum and Palladium - Both platinum and palladium futures hit the limit down, with platinum down by 10% to 634.35 yuan/gram and palladium down by 10% to 494.1 yuan/gram [2] Macro Environment - The Ministry of Commerce announced that certain anti-dumping measures will expire in the second half of 2026, allowing domestic industries to apply for reviews if they believe termination could lead to dumping or damage [5] - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan for digital currency, set to officially launch on January 1, 2026, with significant transaction volumes already processed [6] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 4.15 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [6] Oil Market - Both domestic and international oil prices rose, with U.S. oil up by 1.02% and Brent oil by 0.98%, amid concerns over Middle East tensions affecting supply [9]

铜周报 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 12 月 29 日 市场情绪高涨，铜价延续上行 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周铜价延续上行，主因美国三季度GDP增速好于预期， 美联储下一任主席人选或将于近期公布，特朗普表示其必 须站在拥护降息的鸽派立场上，而鲍威尔或将在明年5月 卸任后提前辞去理事职位，美元指数走势疲软提振金属市 场，另一方面，央行连续第10个月加量续作MLF保持市场 流动性充裕，楼市政策将于明年进一步松绑；基本面来看， 海外精矿供应紧缺依旧，非美地区货源偏低，国内社会库 存低位下探，现货消费受到抑制，内贸现货贴水扩大，近 月盘面C结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities warns that the U.S. market may face significant challenges in the coming months as the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes office in May 2024, leading to potential investor sell-offs of dollar assets and pressure on U.S. equity and bond markets in the second half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Risks and Predictions - Nomura strategist Naka Matsuzawa indicates that while the new Chairman is expected to lead a rate cut in June, subsequent policy paths are uncertain, with potential strong opposition from the FOMC against further cuts due to signs of economic recovery [1][2]. - The period from July to November 2024 is predicted to be a "high-risk" phase for the market, where a policy deadlock between the Fed and the Trump administration could catalyze sell-offs in U.S. stocks and bonds, as well as a weakening dollar [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Leadership Concerns - Historical analysis shows that previous transitions of Federal Reserve Chairpersons have often led to market volatility, with the 1987 "Black Monday" being a notable example shortly after Alan Greenspan took office [3]. - There are concerns that the new Chairman may be pressured to align with the Trump administration's re-inflation policies, which could lead to increased market volatility if perceived as too dovish or compromising [3]. Group 3: Global Asset Allocation Trends - From a macro asset allocation perspective, Nomura anticipates a significant global economic recovery by 2026, shifting market drivers from "excess liquidity" to "corporate earnings," which may diminish the relative advantage of U.S. assets [4]. - As other major economies potentially halt rate cuts or begin raising rates, the dollar is expected to weaken, particularly during sensitive periods in the second half of the year, leading to a reassessment of U.S. asset dominance and potential capital outflows [4].

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）正处于其政府生涯中可能具有决定性意义的事件的关键时 刻。 贝森特设计的筛选流程旨在避免这种失望——无论是对总统还是对他自己而言。他从一开始就设定了目 标：寻找支持降息、并愿意在制定货币政策时与白宫更好协作的候选人。贝森特已向特朗普提交了4名 最终候选人名单供其考量。 一位熟悉筛选过程的人士表示，贝森特并未支持任何特定候选人，而是专注于流程本身。 主要候选人被称为"两个凯文"。凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）是特朗普的长期经济顾问，现任国家经济 委员会（National Economic Council）主任。凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）是前美联储理事，特朗普在第一 任期内曾考虑让他担任主席一职。 另外两名候选人——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和贝莱德（BlackRock）高管里 克·里德（Rick Rieder）——由于与特朗普的私人关系较弱，被认为当选可能性小得多。 原本的第五名候选人、美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）已退出竞争。 美国总统特朗普表示，将在明年1月初选出下一 ...

当地时间12月23日（周二），美国股市三大股指小幅收涨，三大股指均录得四连涨。 贵金属市场方面，当天国际贵金属价格再暴涨，金银价格再创历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金首次升破4500美元/盎司关口，今年累涨超1870美 元。 另外，国际市场上铂和钯期货价格再度暴涨，其中NYMEX铂期货主力合约涨幅超过11%。 美股三大股指均实现四连涨 当地时间12月23日（周二），美国股市三大股指小幅收涨，其中道琼斯工业指数涨0.16%，报48442.41点，标准普尔500指数涨0.46%，报 6909.79点，纳斯达克指数涨0.57%，报23561.84点。值得注意的是，美国股市三大股指均录得四连涨。 美股市场大型科技股多数上涨，其中，亚马逊、谷歌涨超1%，Meta、苹果、微软均小幅上涨，特斯拉小幅下跌，跌幅不足1%。 航空板块整体下跌，其中美国航空跌超4%，达美航空、美联航均跌逾2%，西南航空跌超1%。 芯片股多数上涨，费城半导体指数涨0.55%，英伟达涨超3%，迈威尔科技涨逾3%，博通涨逾2%，台积电、闪迪涨超1%，阿斯麦、高通、意法 半导体涨幅均不足1%。跌幅居前的芯片股方面，微芯科技、恩智浦半导体、ARM均跌逾1%。 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储传来大消息。 12月19日消息，特朗普表示，他与美联储理事沃勒进行了面谈，并称赞对方"很棒"。特朗普还称赞了美 联储理事鲍曼，但并未明确其是否进入最终候选名单。不过，据外媒报道，鲍曼已不再是候选人。 据媒体报道，目前，美联储主席候选名单已缩小至四人，分别为哈塞特、沃什、沃勒，以及贝莱德的里德 尔。 此外，美联储官员密集发声。19日，美国纽约联储主席（享有FOMC永久投票权，号称美联储三把手） 威廉姆斯表示，通胀显现放缓迹象，CPI数据存在一定失真。 来看详细报道！ 下一任美联储主席人选即将公布 美国总统特朗普当地时间周四表示，他目前正就美联储主席一职对"三至四位"候选人进行面试，预计将很 快决定提名接替鲍威尔的人选。 "我认为每位候选人都是合适人选。"特朗普称，尚不确定是否会在年底前公布提名人选，但明确表示"未 来数周内"将作出决定。 特朗普曾暗示心中已有答案，他在本月早些时候称，"我已经非常清楚我想要谁了"。尽管如此，特朗普周 四称赞了数位候选人。当被问及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒时，他表示双方周三已再次会面， ...